Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts

GMO guys the dumbest in the room

SUBHEAD: The GMO industry has managed to hire the worst public relations strategists in human history.

By Kurt Cobb on 10 July 2016 for Resource Insights -
(http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2016/07/gmo-industry-dumbest-guys-in-room.html)


Image above: These are two labels that guarantee that the food in the package contains no GMO ingredients. From (http://organicconnectmag.com/project/a-tale-of-two-labels-organic-and-non-gmo/).

[IB Publisher's note: The Vermont labeling law was not strong enough. To merely indicate that the ingredients of a food package "contains genetically engineered ingredients" does not tell us nearly enough. For example; if the only GMO ingredient in the product is only a few percentage of the total product that is quite different from it being a major element like high-fructose-corn-syrup (HFCS) in soft drinks. The way food ingredients are labeled is in descending order of percentage. Frozen non GMO corn with added dash of HFCS as a sweetener and some salt  might be 95% GMO free. Where as if the corn was a GMO product the package would be 95% GMO. This should be reflected in the ingredients label listing. For example: as "INGREDIENTS: Corn, GMO HFCS, salt"  or "INGREDIENTS: GMO corn, GMO HFCS, salt". This is not being done because of the "burden" on those providing the printed packaging to various locations with differing requirements. All the more reason for a comprehensive, informative and easy to read labeling regimen coming from the federal government. Until then we will have to rely on "USDA Organic" or "Non GMO Product" labels on packaging.]


Image above: Possible senate (and Democrat) approved. Isn't this informative to the buyer? QR scanner code mark which would "inform" consumer, of among other things, if there was GMO content. From (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-07-10/gmo-industry-the-dumbest-guys-in-the-room).

I am now convinced the GMO industry has managed to hire the worst public relations strategists in human history. By supporting a deeply flawed GMO labeling bill in the U.S. Congress--some would say intentionally deeply flawed--the industry is about to open a Pandora's Box of PR nightmares for years to come.

First, a little background. GMO, of course, means genetically modified organism which more properly refers to genetically engineered crops and animals. GMO industry leader Monsanto and its competitors such as Bayer, Dupont, Dow Chemical and Sygenta have all been fighting a fierce battle in the United States against labeling foodstuffs derived from genetically engineered crops.

After defeating statewide labeling referendums in California, Oregon and Washington, they failed to stop the implementation of Vermont's GMO labeling law which went into effect July 1st.

In desperation the companies have been trying to get the U.S. Congress to pass a nationwide labeling law--one that is considerably less stringent and also riddled with loopholes--that would pre-empt Vermont's law. Just last week the Senate approved its version of the labeling law. If the House and Senate can work out their differences, we may see such a law signed by President Obama before too long.

The industry's main complaint has been that labeling GMOs would unfairly stigmatize them in the minds of consumers. Some 64 countries already require such labeling. What concerns the industry is that increased consumer awareness could create a movement that would lead to a ban on the cultivation of GMO crops, a ban already implemented by 19 countries in Europe.

Opponents of the GMO labeling law currently moving through the U.S. Congress believe it is so poorly drafted that almost no commonly consumed genetically modified foods will actually be covered.

In addition, food derived from newer gene-editing techniques as opposed to transgene processes--the ones that transfer genes from one species to another--may be excluded as well. The fact that agricultural trade groups are praising the labeling bill--after fighting labeling for years--tells you something about how effective they believe the law will be at informing consumers, namely, not very.

The Senate bill allows food manufacturers to use a symbol, a statement or a so-called QR code that shoppers would have to scan using a cellphone to obtain information on genetically engineered ingredients. Small companies could simply list a phone number or website address.

If you were selling GMO-derived foods, which would you use? Probably the options that provide the least information and which make it most difficult for consumers to access that information. This assumes that anything in your product actually turns out to be covered by the law which looks like it will exclude great swaths of foodstuffs containing genetically engineered ingredients.

Given what we know now, the final bill is likely to be vague and riddled with exceptions and confusing directives. The GMO-friendly U.S. Department of Agriculture will then be tasked with writing the actual labeling regulations.

We are thus assured of months and perhaps years of wrangling over the labeling rules, every step of which will be given wide and probably negative coverage by the anti-GMO activist community. The pending federal labeling law is more likely to assist opponents in sowing mistrust of major food companies than alleviate it.

When the rules go into effect, if they are every bit as lax as the law seems to promise, the activists will make a sport out of spotting and telling on companies that are cheating or that are cleverly thwarting the purposes of the law.

The anti-GMO groups will likely put out lists of the worst labeling violators and lists of their products containing GMOs. And, of course, there will be lists based on those enigmatic QR codes. Perhaps those codes will become the equivalent of the skull and crossbones feared by one GMO executive.

The whole shopping experience will be treated like an reverse Easter egg hunt. Can you spot the GMO foods? Can you identify the alleged cheaters on the grocery store shelves and punish them by refusing to buy their products?

Perhaps some enterprising activist, one not afraid of incarceration, will surreptitiously slap GMO cheater labels on various products on the store shelves that are not labeled properly. Any subsequent arrest will then lead to more coverage as some in the public cheer the civil disobedience while others simply shrug their shoulders.

Acquiescence to the Vermont law or acceptance of a federal law with Vermont's straightforward labeling rules would have saved the GMO industry from what will almost surely be a years-long PR debacle if the labeling law before Congress passes.

There will doubtless be many more creative ways than I've listed for GMO opponents to tweak the industry and keep the issue of honest labeling alive and before the public. If only the industry had accepted Vermont's labeling law as the de facto standard for the country, the industry would have in one stroke taken the issue away from its opponents!

But the industry's business and public relations strategists are the same ones who made a colossal marketing error--while believing they had achieved a regulatory coup--when they steamrolled the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) into ruling that GMOs are "substantially equivalent" to their non-GMO counterparts and therefore require no testing.

The FDA did this despite their own scientists' concerns that these novel life forms might have unanticipated effects on the environment and on humans who consume them. Some of those scientists thought extensive testing similar to what a new drug must go through was advisable to rule out such risks.

The reason this strategy has turned out to be a colossal marketing error is that as the attacks on GMOs have mounted during the intervening couple of decades, the industry finds itself unable to pivot and point to any advantages that GMO foods have for consumers over non-GMO foods. This is because the industry has been saying for more than 20 years that GMOs have no advantages for consumers.

After all, GMO foods are said to be "substantially equivalent." That means that the industry cannot give consumers any reasons to prefer GMO foods over their non-GMO counterparts. Any claims of superiority over conventional foods made now will ring hollow and bring down an avalanche of public derision from GMO opponents.

(The industry may cite supposed advantages for farmers and for the environment. But those advantages are sharply and publicly disputed by anti-GMO activists and have nothing to do with taste, nutrition or appearance which are what matters to consumers. While the GMO industry tells us that GMO crops with enhanced nutrition are coming, I can find only one that has been brought to market under a cloud of concerns. So far genetic engineering has focused on creating plants the produce insecticides internally--not a pleasant thought for those eating them--and which are immune to herbicides made by, you guessed it, the companies producing the GMO seeds.)


Image above: GMO experimental corn field with rows of "Supreme EX Brand Seed". From (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-07-10/gmo-industry-the-dumbest-guys-in-the-room).

These same industry strategists have directed a campaign of fear aimed at farmers to prevent supposed intellectual property theft through the use of saved GMO seeds. Even those into whose fields GMO seeds have been swept by wind have been sued. Since farmers growing in areas where other farmers grow genetically engineered crops may be subject to windblown "thefts," they have an incentive to grow GMO crops on their land and pay the royalties to avoid being sued for such "theft." Essentially, it's, "Buy from us or we'll sue you--and we're a lot richer than you are."

Aggressive tactics including smear campaigns have also been used against critics who question the safety and social utility of GMOs and associated farm chemicals. (Click here, here and here.) Mostly, those campaigns have backfired by creating extensive media coverage of the smear campaigns themselves.

These aggressive tactics have made the company most associated with the GMO industry, Monsanto, one of the most hated corporations in America.

All of this would make for an enviable record for anti-GMO activists, and yet it comes from business and public relations strategists in the industry itself. In most industries, a record like this would lead to a rash of sackings.

Instead, the bunglers have managed to bungle into yet another long-term public relations disaster of their own making. They seem not to have learned anything from their repeated failures.

All this should be pleasing to GMO opponents who must be thinking these continuing debacles couldn't be happening to nicer people.



P.S. I borrow my slightly altered headline for this piece from a book and film entitled "The Smartest Guys in the Room" about the collapse of Enron, the energy trading firm. The phrase refers to key traders in the company who believed they were, in fact, always the smartest guys in the room, the same ones who eventually brought the company down.

• Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights and can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.

.

The End Game begins?

SUBHEAD: Either you position yourself before the skies darken or you are left groping in the dark.

By Cognitive Dissonance on 30 May 2016 for Two Ice Floes -
(http://twoicefloes.com/where-will-you-be-when-the-end-game-begins/)


Image above: Chess strategies of the End Game. From (http://www.thylacine3.com/419536821).

Sometime after oh-dark-thirty it will begin, the previously cocked trigger suddenly released to wreck havoc throughout the world’s financial system. Like an intricate and interwoven design made entirely of standing dominoes, all it takes is a slight disturbance to knock one off its base and start the cascade of toppled consequences running down the line.

With the benefit of hindsight it will be seen that the trigger itself was not the killer. Instead, sometime later, a specific projectile will be (most likely falsely) identified as the blunt instrument which tore economic flesh asunder and quickly bled the system of ‘liquidity’ faster than a slash to the femoral artery. Too late to make a difference, tourniquets will be applied to stem the red tide.

Sadly, all it will accomplish is to extend economic life long enough to enable a final frenzy of looting before the bloody end.

And the totalitarian end game will have only just begun.

End Game
Where will you physically be when the end game begins? If you are not there when it begins, you will most likely never get there.

A socioeconomic system, if healthy and vibrant, can usually withstand extremely rough handling and even intentionally directed assault. A severed lifeline, while certainly a devastating shock to the organism, can and will be survived simply because adequate resources and flexibility remain within the structure which can be quickly marshaled while emergency repairs are made.

But a compromised entity already deathly ill, continuously pumped with toxic drugs and stimulants, stressed beyond compare by various Rube Goldberg financial devices, constantly monitored and regulated to assure compliance to artificial standards no natural system would ever adhere to, is always one disturbance away from disaster.

Thus the stage is set for the dark thirty triggering event.   

While several likely scenarios can be put forward regarding the sequence of events that might follow the triggering (as well as the trigger itself) the precise chain of events is ultimately of little importance since a million and one fingers are resting on the trigger and several trillion dominoes await their inevitable fall.

The socioeconomic weapon will be fired, of this there is little doubt. The more penetrating, and ultimately personal, question is of what intensity and duration are the intended consequences.

I sincerely fear a long term mass casualty event of such strength and scope as to be inconceivable, therefore impossible, for the average cloistered mind to comprehend. Even those of us presently reading this article believe we have a heightened, some might say enlightened, perspective and understanding of the coming trials and tribulations.

We do not. And quite frankly, we cannot.

I say this with great conviction by way of my interaction with, and study of, living examples...those who lived through and carried the lifelong scars of the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

While just about any American over the age of 60 has talked to, or heard stories of, older family members who survived that decade plus of sustained hardship and deprivation, as a financial planner and broker I worked directly with many who suffered the most in the area of greatest damage, their personal financial affairs.

The best way to describe this class of people, an entire generation in fact, is that of walking wounded who are deeply scared by post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

More than ‘just’ suffering from the effects of a horribly maiming bomb blast, these survivors carried the burden of having been completely demoralized and abandoned by every institution they ever came to believe in.

Seventy plus years after the fact, the remaining few still hold little trust in anything they cannot hold in their hands or create with their own sweat and blood.

Talk about a lost generation.
Thankfully for the powers-that-be who presently guide us into dark territory, that generation, along with its vivid memories and stark warnings, is rapidly dying off. There is nothing more annoying than attempting to run the train off the tracks while those in the back seats are rabble rousing with dire warnings of impending doom, death and destruction. Into the valley of death rode the 6 billion.

As they say in poker, this nearly extinguished generation is a ‘tell’, a sign, a marker unmistakably warning in no uncertain terms where we are headed is not where we want to be.

This alone should be sufficient for any critical thinker to settle his or her affairs and remove themselves from the clearly marked ground zero, your local (sub) urban center where any semblance of independence and self sufficiency is a pipe dream of the self deluded mind.

It is well past time to move to where we have a chance of regaining some (even limited) control over our food, water and (safer) space.

Time is running out
Time is not on your side. When exactly do you posittion yourself for the next phase of Empire's collapse?

This is not to say we should bunker in, both physically and mentally. In fact I speak of just the opposite. As I have expressed time and time again, while bunkering might tide us over nicely for a short duration event of a few months or even a year, at some point we must come up for air and interact with the local population.

If at that point we have not integrated ourselves into the community, an extremely unlikely event if we were actually bunkering, it will be exponentially more difficult to do so after the fact. At best, if we are seen as a threat they will shun us and leave us to our own devices.

At worst we will be treated as a dangerous nuisance animal that must be eliminated or neutralized for the community’s greater good.

If the community, already dealing with great stress and turmoil, finds ‘us’ of less value than our ‘stuff’, they will take our stuff and leave our rotting carcass behind. We will be outsiders and must prove our worth to the others.

In a devolving socioeconomic situation a cohesive community must work together as equals while providing similar and equal value to the whole in order to survive. Those alien to the area will be quickly cast off if they do not measure up.

But there is more, so much more, to the unfolding totalitarian equation. One must be willingly deaf, dumb and blind not to hear the propaganda on the boob tube, understand the game theory being played out and see the bleak writing on the wall.

Any oppressive and controlling regime, whether it is defined as the elite, the one percent, shadow government, deep state, corpocracy, fascism or whatever label we use to mindlessly identify, compartmentalize and thereby cognitively diminish, will use any and all means at its disposal to defend itself when it perceives itself under attack.

And the term ‘attack’ is loosely defined to encompass any perceived danger real, imaginary or falsely concocted.

To view the increasingly hostile police state which America is rapidly becoming as anything other than an oppressive and controlling entity readying itself for war upon its population is to expose the reader’s appalling denial of the glaringly obvious. This is nothing short of an emotional and intellectual defect that is severely debilitating and potentially terminal.

The danger is clear and present and growing on a daily basis. If this cannot be seen for what it is, the observer remains hopelessly mired in the bargaining phase of their denial.

Then again never underestimate the time, energy and effort seemingly intelligent and worldly people will invest in constructing an alternative reality they wish to believe in. As a corollary, never underestimate the time, energy and effort an oppressive and controlling regime will invest in promoting an alternative reality the population wishes to believe in.

A self deluded populace is more easily controlled and directed than one whose sticks and stones, when used in anger, may break the elite’s bones. If the population wants to believe in fairy tales, give them fairy tales they can love, honor, cherish and defend. If they don’t, convince them they should believe by any means possible.

The genius of those who are constructing the underlying superstructure of the police state is their cunning ability to do so under the unflinching glare of the midday sun. Problem, reaction, solution is their trade craft, the government bureaucracy their blunt instrument, a corrupted legislature the enabler and creator of the unconstitutional and immoral laws, a co-opted and controlled press their sympathetic choir and the judiciary the final fraudulent arbiter of the chains that bind.

Make no mistake about it, every ‘government’ at war with its people makes certain its actions are ‘just and lawful’, particularly when they are patently not.

When viewed from the point of view of the disinterested and detached, the inevitable is obvious. The only purpose for power is to use the power…or have it used against its own creator. Therein lays its absolute ability to corrupt absolutely.

Clearly the rapidly increasing capacity of the powers-that-be to surveil, subvert, suppress, subdue, subsume and slaughter is self evident to all but those who are desperate not to see. Or, in what is more likely the case, are either paid not to see or wish to continue to be paid if blindness is feigned and cooperation assured. 

See No Evil
The Empire demands compliance. Why would you possibly think your 'End Game' options will still exist when the End Game begins?

This is why, at least at this moment, we would not be able to strike directly at the heart of the diseased beast, for it will be our fathers, family and friends who will defend ‘it’ from us. The Empire is exquisitely designed and constructed to be empowered when physical force is used against it.

Both the physical structure of its ramparts and the perverted psychology of its defenders are strengthened and emboldened when physical force is applied. Active resistance, when directed towards the Empire, is our own worst enemy.

The only way physical force has any chance of working against the Empire is when applied in overwhelming numbers against all vulnerable borders on a continuous basis. Since this requires great sacrifice by the population at large, Jane and Joe will only turn to these devices as a last resort, when all hope is lost and abject desperation sets in.

Even then, the controlling elite are expert at employing propaganda and psychological operations to turn Jane against Joe, thereby minimizing the effectiveness of the opposing force. One must be competently conditioned to kill on command in great numbers with ruthless efficiency to be considered an effective fighting force.

Quite frankly an angry mob is the exact opposite, making it very easy to turn each upon the other since the only driving force of the mob is blind emotional outburst easily subverted and misdirected.

Below are some sobering thoughts to ponder regarding human psychology and armed resistance to the Empire.  

Organized revolution requires both the will and a way. And by ‘way’ I mean money. Any money procured by, or offered to, a resistance always comes with strings attached. Often the money comes directly from the controlling elite itself via back channels designed to subvert, misdirect or implode the resistance.

Or it might come from an enemy of the Empire, thereby making you a proxy and not an independent force. Someone’s bitch, plain and simple.

Essentially, when outnumbered and outgunned guerrilla tactics are usually employed. Basically you are fighting fire with even more devastating fire. If you have any moral qualms with using the methods of Empire against the Empire, this fight isn’t for you. To convince yourself otherwise will only destroy you from within.

If you aren’t ready to declare war on your community, don’t even consider this path. Ninety percent of the population is hopelessly compromised, whether spiritually, morally, medically or pharmaceutically, psychologically, financially or ideologically. To believe otherwise is to engage in self deception. The vast majority will never oppose the Empire in any consistent or meaningful way.

Even worse, in the words of Morpheus, “You have to understand. Most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so helplessly dependent on the system that they will fight to protect it.”

This is so much more than a quote from some silly Hollywood movie. This is a universal psychological truth used to the significant advantage of the Empire. While the puppeteers are a relative few, they leverage the minds of millions far more effectively than if the bodies were simply cannon fodder.

Any serious degradation or collapse of the system will not weaken, but rather strengthen, the Empire, if only because it is accelerating the endgame towards the present day. Those compromised by the system will beg the corrupt system to save them from the collapsing system, a fool’s errand vigorously pursued by unprepared and panicked fools along with the ever present groveling sycophants.

Desperate men do desperate things. Our mistake is assuming that when the downward spiral accelerates the core elite will be among the desperate. Those pursuing a plan of divide and conquer while reaping the spoils will not panic when it’s playing out as expected. Socioeconomic chaos is their friend, not yours or mine.

While the endgame may be accelerating, it will not conclude quickly. These long period cycles of madness require many years, even decades, to complete its rotation only to begin the cycle once again.

Since the insanity of a decaying and corrupt Empire is constantly renewed and invigorated by new blood from below, its lifespan is far longer than yours and mine. The name of the game is survival, not gloriously wasted death or indefinite incarceration.

The greatest danger to us and our loved ones is not (just) the violent thrashing of the expiring Empire, but our refusal to deal frankly and honestly with our own personal shortcomings and denial. Our unwillingness to soberly assess ourselves and our surroundings circumvent any proactive response by us to a worsening situation.

To think one can shelter in place within the confines of the corral is shear lunacy. To believe one can effectively time their escape to greener pastures just ahead of the initial imposition of the financial lockdown is not dealing with reality, other than one produced by the self deceived.

The reason most of us remain frozen in place like jack-lighted deer is our reluctance to recognize the severity of our situation and the capacity for further degradation. Quite frankly, this reduces us to little more than rationalization and justification to explain our near total inaction, other than possibly stockpiling.

Ultimately our ‘plan’ is to cheer on a systemic collapse in the hope those in power will be deposed and a new regime arises from the ashes to rebuild the Empire from the tattered remains of its glorious capitalist past.

At best this is wishful thinking, at worst suicidal. There is madness afoot, a debilitating energy that permeates all that lives, not just the ‘bad’ guys and gals. In the vast majority it expresses as obsessive compulsive behavior, in some it manifests in the form of a sociopath or psychopath, with others various combinations of the seven deadly sins (greed and pride/ego especially) rise to the surface, in still others fear and cowardice prevails.

Great personal and collective courage is required to overcome the disaffected ‘self’. And during times of mass delusion and hysteria, courage is in chronic short supply.

Courage
Do we wait for the water to boil or make our move now? Our biggest enemy is not our surroundings, but our 'self'.

I am fully aware all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. I do not propose nothing be done. But the choices are not limited to either charging directly into withering rifle fire or remaining huddled behind phantom cover in the hope we survive. There are many equally viable alternatives, including (at least partial) withdrawal to begin the process of starving the beast.

Make no mistake about the following. The power of the Empire has not yet waned to the point where it will be toppled by its own arrogance, hubris or blind greed. It has miles to go, and lives to destroy, before it sleeps. Any weakness displayed by the Empire will be compensated for by even greater transgressions against the population.

The lie we tell ourselves is we are not participating in strengthening the Empire by simply going about our daily business while drafting, and possibly even implementing, contingency plans A, B and C.

The Empire cares little about the plans of individual mice and men. So in this respect the illusion of safety within the anonymous pack emboldens inaction. But to believe we are not contributing to the Empire because of our status as an individual snowflake flatly denies our involvement in the avalanche.

Empire does not require willing participation, just involvement plain and simple. The more our contribution is reduced, the less dependent we become, the less contributory we are.

The ugly, and self evident, truth is the vast majority of us wish to partake of the spoils of Empire while denying Empire and the means by which it acquires the spoils. We know any significant change to our living arrangement involves dislocation, deprivation and uncertainty.

We pontificate about high moral aspirations while decrying the despicable greed and self interest of the elite and powerful. Yet our perceived ‘enlightened’ self interest dictates our own (in) action even if it ultimately undermines us as well as our family and friends.

Who are we kidding if not our ‘self’?

As stated previously, Mrs. Cog and I do not have the answers, let alone a firm understanding of all the questions. What we believe we know is extremely personal in nature, but can be universally applied.

Either we declare powerless victimhood by doing little to nothing while awaiting the ‘sign’ to engage Plan B, or we execute a living breathing plan of action here and now by changing nearly everything about our lives and begin the process of reclaiming our personal sovereignty one step at a time.

To change the world I must first change myself. To approach this in any other manner is to adopt the techniques and mindset we decry as dishonest, disingenuous and corrupt. I have come to realize the approaching trials are about so much more than just survival.

This is about personal growth and spiritual transformation, of reaching for and achieving a higher plain of existence greater than the lowest common denominator, the heart of the fraud the Empire promotes and which “We the People” are addicted to and dependent upon.

And this, I suspect, is what truly holds so many people back.

For to break from the herd and look squarely in the mirror requires a fearless self examination and assessment, precisely what we are conditioned to avoid at all costs in our mindless pursuit of self absorbed consumerism.

The promoted myth is simple enough; when we exit the education indoctrination system the only remaining items left to pursue are specific skills required to further our ‘career’, which in turn provides the money to pay the debts that support the self destructive consumer lifestyle.

Turning our back on this meme and consciously choosing a life of more focused labor and dedication to self sufficiency and independence is not aligned with the bargain we struck with the system back when we entered grade school all those years ago. I made a deal with the devil in return for a life of leisure when I hit age 65.

To question this fundamental ‘truth’ requires us to question everything, something very few of us are willing to do.

Are you?
Either you position yourself before the skies darken or you are left groping in the dark.

.

Fighting Extinction

SUBHEAD: If the story is told as one of avarice, private gain and exceptionalism, the human race will go extinct.

By Albert Bates on 16 June 2015 for The Great Change -
(http://peaksurfer.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/fighting-extinction.html)


Image above: Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (and the European Union) walk amongst the dandeions at Schloss Elmau in Bavaria in Germany. From (http://www.ihrb.org/commentary/walking-the-talk-7-points-for-the-g7.html).

At the G7 last week, the leading industrial nations agreed to cut greenhouse gases by phasing out the use of fossil fuels by the end of the century. [IB Publisher's note: Since 2014, because of our meddling in the Ukraine,  Russia has been uninvited to the group meetings of the G8 - thus reducing it to the G7 with the EU attached as a side tumor.]
While that seem to many, ourselves included, as whistling past the graveyard, the mainstream press and many climate organizations are hailing the diplomatic triumph of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in bringing fossil foot-draggers Australia, Japan and Canada to a "Jesus, the climate!" moment.

On the final day of G7 talks in their Bavarian castle, and before rushing off to the secretive Bilderberg Group meeting, Merkel said the leaders had committed themselves to the need to “decarbonize the global economy in the course of this century.” They also agreed on a global target for limiting the rise in average global temperatures to a maximum of 2°C over pre-industrial levels, oblivious of the contradiction in those two positions.

Two weeks ago, at the St. Petersberg Climate Dialogue, Chancellor Merkel called upon the overdeveloped countries to draft a roadmap of how to meet the $100 billion bribe Hillary Clinton offered underdeveloping countries to acquiesce to President Obama's stalling strategy in Copenhagen in 2009.

For five years now, Obama has declined to present such a plan, and not having one has undermined trust in both the UN process and the United States. At home, Obama’s popularity ratings are now below those of George W. Bush in his final year. The President’s legacy is likely to be that his name becomes synonymous with loss of trust. Merkel’s is likely to be associated with loss of ambition.

In fact, let us apply Merkel as the denomination for degrees of warming expected to result from heel dragging for the next 85 years. Thus, a rise of one-degree this coming century would be 1 Merkel. Six degrees would be 6 Merkels, and so on.

Scientific consensus recently concluded that even if CO2 and other greenhouse gases were stabilized in a time short of 85 years, surface air temperatures and sea levels will continue rising for at least another century and probably several.

This means that even if we moved from fossil fuels to 100% renewable energy by 2030 or 2050, further impacts on people and ecosystems will continue unabated. Hurricanes will continue to strengthen.

Heat transfer between Atlantic and Pacific across the Arctic may reveal a new tipping point. Both the Jet Stream and the Atlantic Conveyor will break weirdness records.

This might cause one to despair utterly, and then to psychologically block the consequences and perhaps even party like its 1999. Some speculate that is already what is going on at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and 10 Downing Street.

This assumes they are already in the acceptance mode of grieving for near term human extinction. In our view, that assumption is flawed and anybody’s despair for our race is pre-mature. Killian O'Brien, from the Permaculture and Resilience Initiative in Detroit, writes:

[A] last resort mindset [is] inappropriate when return to a stable Anthropocene, largely de-mechanized and far simpler than OECD nations currently enjoy, is still at least theoretically possible.

Given it is feasible to return to sub-300 ppm by 2100, if not far sooner, and even to the mid-to-low 200's, which would bring on cooling, giving up (or 'going into hospice,' as Guy McPherson puts it), is an unethical, even immoral, suggestion, is it not?
Step one: zero GHG. Full stop
Step two: Go Beyond Zero

John Holdren, who as White House Science Advisor has the Drone King’s ear, should be whispering words to the effect that a global fossil fuel extraction levy, applied at the ridiculously low price of $2/ton of CO2e, could easily generate $50 billion a year.

That levy would need to increase substantially year on year as we phase out fossil fuels but it would shift the cost of fossil fuels from the victims to the industry and feedback favorably to accelerate the phase-out.

If the ultimate objective of the UN Convention is to repair the climate, not just to seem to be doing something, it would require actually reversing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and taking down concentrations to pre-industrial levels.
  • Step one: zero GHG. Full stop.
    >
  • Step two: go beyond zero, to net-sequestration techniques like biochar, living roofs, bioenergy-to-carbon-storage, and regrarian farming
At 2 Merkels, half the world's coral reefs will disappear, small island states and populous coastlines will be submerged, Brazil’s soils will go from sink to source, and many indigenous societies will go extinct.

Even to have a 2 Merkel limit begs the question of whether are we aiming to achieve that with a probability of 90%, 66%, or something less, and what might each of those require? A 25-50% probability might require achieving net sequestration in something like 10 years (by 2025).

Do non-scientists really appreciate what that means? Even to limit warming below 3°C a radical transformation of capitalism will be necessary.

The Bonn draft text, taking its G7 cue, supports phasing out fossil fuel emissions and transitioning (equitably) to 100% renewable energy by ... 2100? 2050? -- that will be the central Paris negotiating point if the G7 and Bilderberg conferences didn’t already decide it. Given what we know about the net energy of renewables and Jevon's paradox from the Swedish study mentioned here last week, it is hard to imagine even a 2050 target representing anything less than 3 Merkels.

Progressive nations like Switzerland plan to reduce emissions by 50% from 1990 levels by 2030, with 30% to be achieved domestically, and the rest through offsets (paying other countries to reduce).

This is 10% more ambitious than the EU as a whole, but as the Climate Action Network asks, "If the whole world needs to decarbonize by mid-century, what makes Switzerland think there will be enough offsets available?"

Some, like India and Japan, believe that fossil fuels can be used for some time to come and we will still achieve a 2°C target. India is expanding its coal-fired electric grid by leaps and bounds.

Japan is massively subsidizing a coal build-out to help underdeveloping countries further underdevelop and covertly plans to frack SE Asia, on the way derailing antifracking laws, which is a lot of what TPP,

TTPP and TiSA are about. Either these countries have a steep learning curve to even comprehend the science, or less charitably, they are merely partying hard towards the Apocalypse.

Japan’s P.M. predicts that by fifteen years from now, 20-22% of his country’s electricity will be sourced from nuclear power, despite Fukushima. Coal will provide 26% more energy than renewables in 2030 Japan and extending the operation of old nuclear power plants to 60 years and/or building new nuclear plants is slated to the fill any gaps. Good luck with all that. We are getting our protest bandana out of mothballs.

To accord with both ethics and science, OECD countries should cut emissions by 106-128% immediately, the IPCC reports.  If that seems extreme, it really is not such a heavy lift, policy-and-popularity-wise. The current $5.3 trillion fossil fuel industry subsidy for 2015 -- $10 million per minute -- is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments.

Or compare the cost of Exxon blackmail to the cost of the Iraq War, at about 1 trillion per year (and a civilian death toll of an estimated 176,000 to 189,000)  -- about $1.9 million per minute (although arguably the Iraq War was another fossil fuel subsidy). Subsidizing fossil fuels is like running 5 Iraq wars simultaneously, for the next 85 years!

But remember the Gilens and Page study, described here last week.  Whether the public supports or distains a particular policy has no effect on its likelihood of becoming law. The same is true of international law.

Algeria: "Thank you Mr. President and fellow representatives. I am very glad to talk to you about my country's opinions on unsustainability. It seems as if we are running out of water. And all of our schemes to try to combat energy and renewable resources and climate change – we just need more money. We need more cash. We can use it to come up with new solutions. If only we had more money and investment we could solve all of these problems. If only there was more money we could combat the food issues, the people starving all over the world; hungry, hungry people everywhere."
- Extraenvironmentalist Episode #86, Slow Money Part C (May 26, 2015).
Imagine a group of people in a disaster shelter. If they go outside they will not likely survive, but to stay within means learning to get along, despite their differences. Two of the people are very wealthy, and they inherited that wealth by their parents enslaving or otherwise mistreating the parents of several of the other people in the shelter, engendering feelings that linger as simmering anger.

But, those two people are learned and skilled at the process of organizing groups to work towards a common goal, and they get everyone to agree to join and discuss what needs to be done. Certain things are obvious priorities: food, water, sewage management, personal security, and First Aid for the injured. Other things, like working through the emotions of those old hatreds, are less immediate but still need to be addressed for the process to move along.

Many in the group feel that although they have not achieved the wealth of the two wealthiest, they are on the path to achieving it, or were before the disaster struck, and when the disaster is over, they still intend to pursue that goal.

What happens? Every issue that the group takes up – from the smallest to the largest  seems to arouse animosity more than a spirit of cooperation. The two wealthiest, and many of the would-be wealthy, feel sorry for those who have nothing, but they are not willing to share the food and water they have brought with them.

They are happy to provide first aid assistance, but reticent to have hands-on involvement in pollution management, infrastructure maintenance and health care, other than by designing systems on paper, and they would like to be paid for that.

The poorest, many of whom are used to maintaining good hygiene despite difficult circumstances, are unwilling to perform work for the wealthy that the wealthy are unwilling to perform for themselves. They would prefer to suffer from bad sanitation than from indignity.

These things play out on the international scale just as they play out in a small group. Unless differences can be put aside, as they were not in Bonn but must be in Paris, there is little hope for the survival of our species, and many others.

If, on the other hand, these things can be put aside for this moment, and we can find common ground and a spirit of shared sacrifice, much is yet possible. This is a true challenge. If the story that is told is one of avarice, private gain and exceptionalism, the human race will go extinct. For this story to end happily it must be a story of our noblest attributes, elevating us above our history.

In his message to COP20 in Lima, Pope Francis said there is a “clear, definitive and ineluctable ethical imperative to act.” In 4 days, on June 18, Francis will issue a new encyclical, “Laudato Si,” on the future of our planet and people. It will speak of climate in the context of human moral development. It could not be more on point.

.

Oil, Empire and the Great Game

SUBHEAD: Nations waiting for the U.S. to collapse may find their own stability is more fleeting than they reckoned.

By Charles Hugh Smith on 3 October 2014 for Of Two Minds -
(http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept14/oil-game9-14.html)


Image above: Map of the Mideast with notes by Charles Hugh Smith showing Iraq and afgahanistan as fulcrums through which it controlls the region with support from Navy and Air Force.  From original article.

Those waiting for the U.S. and its dollar to collapse in a heap may find their own stability is more contingent (and fleeting) than they reckoned. Many observers (including myself) question the coherence of U.S. foreign policy in the Mideast: The Fatal Incoherence of the Bush/Obama Foreign Policy (June 18, 2014).

In my view, the incoherence stems from the intrinsic conflict between traditional (i.e. pre-1941) U.S. foreign policy (based on an uneasy marriage of non-intervention and the explicitly interventionist Monroe Doctrine) and the anti-imperialist values of the Founding Fathers, and the demands of maintaining global hegemony.

The other source of incoherence is the recent policy dominance of an intrinsically incoherent ideology of neo-Conservative Imperialism that is disconnected from both traditional non-interventionist U.S. values and the nuanced demands of maintaining global hegemony.

If we strip away these sources of incoherence, we're left with the Deep State playing the Great Game of controlling the master resource, oil. A consistent narrative has little value in the playing of this game, other than for public-relations value, and those seeking a single narrative are inevitably perplexed by the multiple paradoxes and agendas of the Deep State.

This leads many observers to declare the Deep State's game plan a disaster.

The important question is: which game plan? The incoherent one articulated by the president and his secretary of state? Or the one that nobody lays out because it would be the equivalent of showing everyone at the table all your cards?

The real game plan is flexible enough to tolerate multiple inconsistencies and paradoxes. The only goal is controlling the extraction and distribution of oil, and whatever serves this goal is in play. Switching sides, abandoning proxies, cutting deals with enemies--it's all in play, all the time.

From this perspective, the game requires constant shifting of strategies in response to what's working and what's not working. If taking down Syria's Assad with proxies didn't work, then move on to Plan B or Plan C. If degrading Iran's influence isn't working, then move on to reproachment (privately at first, of course).

In other cases, the strategy is public but the working parts are not necessarily public. Financial sanctions are a good example; beneath the PR bravado and the propaganda war of sanctions and counter-sanctions, one side is getting hurt where it counts (i.e. in the personal fortunes of its Power Elites). If sanctions aren't working, they're replaced with Plan B or C. What Plan B or C might be is only visible between the lines.

In other cases, allies are reminded of who controls $40 trillion in financial resources and who controls $2 trillion.

The U.S. Deep State isn't collecting "likes." Everyone with a piece on the board has to deal with the U.S. in some fashion, whether they like it or not. Even the cliche of the enemy of my enemy is my friend doesn't explicate the conflicting alliances the U.S. maintains.

One need only recall Nixon's visit to China as evidence that all sorts of sacrosanct policies are fluidly jettisoned once the board changes and the Deep State sees the advantages of another arrangement.

In the case of Nixon and China, Nixon sought to rearrange the triangle of China, the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. to the advantage of the U.S. and China at the expense of the U.S.S.R.

In other cases, the U.S. game is served by disrupting competitors' control of resources; if direct control isn't possible with available assets, then indirect control via global finance is always an option. If that isn't possible, then disrupting competitors' control until other stresses bring them to their knees might work.

Everybody with a piece on the board is serving their own best interests. When cutting a deal with an implacable enemy serves your interests better than remaining enemies, that's what you do--consistency doesn't count. Friends, enemies, frenemies--labels, like consistency, don't count.

I don't know any more than any other marginalized, non-insider citizen. But just reading between the lines, I see the various Deep States playing 3-D chess and constantly adjusting strategies and game plans in response to other players' moves.

I would guess one U.S. Deep State strategy involves disrupting the alliance of Russia, Iran and Syria by whatever means are available, with the goal of securing working relationships of some sort with all three such that energy flows serve the U.S. Deep State agenda.

This doesn't mean others' interests aren't being served; arrangements are only stable if they meet all the players' core interests. Costs are raised or reduced, changing the incentives to deal, and at some point the benefits of changing the arrangement outweigh the costs.

Just glancing at this map, I'd guess it would serve both the U.S. and Iran to reach some sort of mutually beneficial arrangement.

  1. As I described on Monday, I expect oil to plummet at some point as the global economy implodes. As demand and price crash, oil exporters on the thin edge of domestic instability will maintain production in a desperate attempt to keep their welfare states afloat. The Oil Head-Fake: The Illusion that Lower Prices Are Positive.
    The Oil Head-Fake: The Illusion that Lower Prices Are Positive

  2. This dramatic decline in oil revenues will trigger domestic regime change in nations which are dependent on oil revenues for the maintenance of their welfare state/Armed Forces/Political Elites.

  3. Capital restrictions will increasingly be viewed as necessary as nations awaken to the fact that their sovereignty and control of their own assets will be lost if they allow uncontrolled flows of capital in and out of their economy.

    The currency that will be needed for reserves and to service debts is the U.S. dollar. As demand for USD rises and U.S. imports (i.e. the supply of USD being exported) decline, the value of USD will rise sharply.

  4. That means the U.S. can outbid other bidders for any global resource. The U.S. funds its Empire by selling its bonds (debt) to those who have traded goods for our dollars. Thus the cost of the Empire is largely borne by other nations as the U.S. exports inflation and its currency in exchange for goods and resources.

    Until China gains an equivalent advantage (and as I have explained many times, nations with trade surpluses cannot issue reserve currencies), then it will have to bid for resources with earned income. Recall that China's apparently substantial wealth is ultimately based on its currency's peg to the U.S. dollar and an export-dependent economy that will run aground once the global recession kicks in.
    The Impossibility of China Issuing a Reserve Currency (October 14, 2013)
    Understanding the "Exorbitant Privilege" of the U.S. Dollar (November 19, 2012)

  5. Capital controls will be followed by resource controls. The export of energy, food and minerals will be limited as a matter of necessity. The excuses given won't matter; there will be no alternative. Governments which let their own populaces starve in order to ship food overseas will be overthrown by whatever means are necessary. As Bob Marley observed, a hungry mob is an angry mob. That's how Bastilles get torn down, brick by brick, by enraged mobs. That means there will be far fewer resources available for export.
  6. The clock is ticking on China's moment in the sun. Its citizens' monumental ambitions will be thwarted by the limits facing all consuming nations, and as the costs of its aging (and increasingly diabetic) populace ratchet higher, China's resources will be stretched too thin to construct a Global Empire with a reserve currency and decisive hard and soft power.

    Perhaps if Mao hadn't struck down an entire generation in the Cultural Revolution and China had started integrating its economy and ambitions 20 years earlier, that hard and soft power might have been assembled. But now there are too many demands on China's financial resources and too many imbalances in its corrupt, centrally planned financial house of cards. Its stash of foreign reserves is modest compared to the demands of Empire and a populace of 1.2 billion people with expectations raised to the sky.

When competition between the U.S. and China comes up, I always ask this:

Which nation's Power Elites have made sure their children have green cards and homes in the others' home turf?

If the U.S. Power Elites had secured Chinese citizenship for their beloved children and purchased properties in Beijing, then that would be proof that the leadership of the U.S. Empire had lost faith in the Empire's durability and future.

But it is the other way round: it is China's leadership which has moved its capital and offspring to Canada and the U.S. Indeed, having U.S./Canadian passports or green cards for one's children is unequivocal evidence of membership in the Chinese Elite.

In many cases, core goals can be met by doing nothing more than waiting patiently for already-visible internal instabilities to blossom in competing nations and alliances. Those waiting for the U.S. and its dollar to collapse in a heap may find their own stability is more contingent (and fleeting) than they reckoned.

The game is many boards deep. Nobody has god-like powers, every player makes mistakes and miscalculations. The advantages and arrangements are all contingent and temporary; those with the most flexibility and the deepest spectrum of assets will eventually increase their influence at the expense of those with weaker hands and those who fail to respond promptly and decisively to new configurations on the multiple boards in play.

Of related interest:
Ukraine: Follow the Energy (March 4, 2014)
The Systemic Sources of Geopolitical Turmoil:  Resource Wars (June 30, 2014)
The Great Game: Geopolitics and Oil (October 19, 2010)
The Great Game: Regime Change in Syria (September 6, 2012)


.

A world we can't understand

SUBHEAD: In such a world, how shall we get through the day? It is best to start from humble premises.

By Kurt Cobb on 12 January 2014 for Resource Insights -
(http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2014/01/living-in-world-we-cant-understand.html)


Image above: Detail from the cover of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder. From (http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2013/02/23/book-review-antifragile-how-to-live-in-a-world-we-dont-understand/).
What is not intelligible to me is not necessarily unintelligent.
                         --Friedrich Nietzsche
As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.
                         --Donald Rumsfeld, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense
We live in an age of enlightenment, in the belief that the entire universe is open to our inspection and more than this, that it is theoretically all intelligible to us. If we just apply enough science and enough rationality, nature will reveal all its secrets to us in ordered sets of data that we can then use to control the entire world around us.

That we can wrest a comfortable life from the Earth is, however, nothing special. Plants and animals do this without resorting to colleges, symposia or research laboratories. And, humans used to do it without these things as well. Ancient Greeks--if they survived childhood diseases, war and the occasional plague--regularly managed to live into their 60s and 70s among balmy Mediterranean breezes. It's not that there hasn't been any progress; it's just that we may not have made as much progress as we think.

And yet, in the age of Big Data we have become ever more enamored with the representations of the world that we gather in the form of numbers and words, believing (wrongly) that the map is the territory.

My father used to annoy his business partners by offering quick-fire solutions to problems--solutions that worked with distressing regularity. When pressed, he often could not explain why these solutions would work, only that he knew they would. His partners, suspicious of things that could not be rendered into rational discourse, eventually bought him out. How could they trust such intuitions, even if they appeared to be on target?

In his book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder (from which I've drawn several ideas for this piece) author Nassim Nicholas Taleb cites the above quotation by Nietzsche and calls it "the most potent sentence in all of Nietzsche's century." We tend to dismiss things we cannot understand: "If I cannot understand it, then it must not exist." And there is the seemingly less pernicious, "If I cannot understand it, it must not be important."

The second notion is actually more pernicious. I can show convincingly that a person who does not understand a well-supported fact is merely ignorant. But it is much harder to convince someone that something which he or she doesn't understand--but doesn't deny either--is actually important enough to pay attention to. Climate change comes to mind.

This is the conundrum of the modern world. The world is so complex that it seems hopeless to try to understand how all things human and natural work together. We live in an age that calls out for explanations of nature and society that provide something genuinely revelatory to the layperson. What we mostly get, however, is hucksterism and public relations, information designed to mislead rather than clarify. Under the circumstances, we are lucky if we occasionally discover a small and perhaps fleeting truth.

We often believe that the explainers know what they are talking about because they speak with such conviction. The economists, the Wall Street analysts, the technical geniuses, the captains of industry, the billionaires, the airwave pundits, they must know something we don't or they wouldn't be that successful. But what they know isn't necessarily what they are telling us. And, what they are telling us is, in any case, almost always designed to advance their interests, not ours.

In such a world, how shall we get through the day? It is best to start from humble premises:
  1. Nature knows better than we do in most things. It's been tested for a lot longer than any human invention.
  2. No one knows the future, but we should strive to make ourselves less vulnerable to damage from extreme events which are the ones that can really hurt us.
  3. Beware of anyone who tells you he or she knows the future with certainty. Unless you are speaking with, say, a scientist calculating the orbit of a planet, such a person is a fraud.
  4. Our social relations--our loves and friendships--are more important than anything else because they are our true anchors in an uncertain world.
  5. The longer a practice or design has been around, say, a book versus an e-reader, the longer it is likely to be around. It has endured the test of time.
  6. There is wisdom in insecurity to quote Alan Watts. We actually live in an insecure and uncertain world. Those who promise to free us from our anxiety and insecurity are merely trying to manipulate us for their own gain. (I would distinguish such people from bona fide practitioners who help those with paralyzing anxiety reduce it to a manageable level.) Do not trust people or pills that promise to end your anxiety. Even if you get temporary relief, the actual uncertainty in your life and the universe will remain.
  7. Just because the world is uncertain doesn't mean it is implacably hostile. Sometimes good things come from an uncertain future if we are wise enough to be on the lookout for them.
None of these principles will deliver you from all of life's difficulties. But they can help you avoid hucksters who simply wish to exploit you by placing you in harm's way while they reap the benefits.

Only when we accept that we have a rather limited understanding of the world we live in are we able to act in ways that are prudent for ourselves and our communities and respectful of the Earth and of our fellow beings, human and otherwise.

• Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude.

.

The Fire This Time

SUBHEAD: Adversity tends to bring out the best in us, and we’re now in the headwinds of a maelstrom.

By David Pollard on 10 December 2013 for How to Save the World -
(http://howtosavetheworld.ca/2013/12/11/the-fire-this-time/)


Image above: Scientists packed to work through Arctic Summer. From (http://www.livescience.com/37917-arctic-expedition-packing.html). 

A few days ago I watched the documentary Chasing Ice, as part of our local Transition initiative’s film series. What really struck me in the film was the narrator’s four word comment about 1/3 through the film when he was discussing what we can/should do about arctic melting and runaway climate change:
“There is no time.”

Just that. He meant that there is no time for us to continue to do what we have been doing — the politicking, stalling, denial, endless debate and research.

But what these four words mean to me, and I think at a visceral and perhaps subconscious level what they now mean to many people who are informed about what is happening in our world, is that there is no time for us to pull back from collapse, no time to avoid or even mitigate runaway climate change and the emergence, later this century, of a climate on Earth as different (7-8oC) from today’s (though in the opposite direction) as the climate during the most recent glacial maxima (colloquially, “Ice Ages”) 20 and 140 and 260 and 340 and 440 thousand years ago.

During these “Ice Ages” much of the planet’s land mass was covered in ice an average of 2 km thick, and the regions adjacent to the ice-covered areas suffered constant windstorms that transformed them into scrub and desert, and beyond that desert, what are now semi-tropical areas were covered in boreal forest. Equatorial areas then, in addition to being much cooler than today, see-sawed between prolonged periods of monsoon-like rains and periods of extended drought.

What will our planet be like with 7-8 degrees of warming in the next few decades? Weather will likely be more extreme (more flooding, desertification and fires, and, later, much higher sea levels) and much more turbulent, but instead of only the equatorial areas being habitable by significant human numbers, as happened during the “Ice Ages”, only the polar areas, with whatever vegetation will have emerged there in that short time, will likely be habitable in the coming “Fire Age”.

There is no time for us to avert this. But there is time to imagine potential future scenarios and how we might react to them, to increase our resilience to the large-scale changes to our way of living it will bring, and to prepare ourselves for them (intellectually, emotionally, and capacity-wise that is — for the coming Long Emergency, hoarding assets and building bunkers is not a viable strategy).

[IB Publisher's note: For David's table of "End Game" scenarios click on this link.]

What complicates the future scenario for our planet is that we are also nearing End Games in our global economic and energy/resource systems, as I diagrammed in my post last month. Neither system is sustainable for more than a few more years, a few decades at most, and both systems affect the rate of atmospheric pollution and hence the extent and timing of runaway climate change.

I’m writing a series of articles that explains all this in more detail for the fledgling Sustainability Showcase magazine, but the chart above summarizes the interrelationship of our economic, resource/energy, and climate/ecological systems, and how ‘collapse’ (i.e. dramatic and uncontrolled unbalancing and change, with largely unpredictable consequences) of any of these systems would likely affect the other two. Here’s the prognosis in a nutshell:

 Best case (Eisenstein) scenario: Shift to Sharing Economy precipitates near-term, gradual collapse of the industrial growth economy, which will leave some of Earth’s energy and resources in the ground and delay and slightly lessen runaway climate change. [Or similarly, major early unexpected impacts of climate change (e.g. pandemic) precipitate near-term, gradual economic collapse, with the same results.]

Worst case (Ehrenfeld) scenario: Politicians ratchet up the economy to extend industrial growth a little longer, exhaust energy and other resources faster and more completely, then use nukes to try to mitigate energy exhaustion, all leading to faster and more severe runaway climate change and total economic collapse and energy/resource exhaustion.


All scenarios end with runaway climate change. This is kind of hard to comprehend, but once you realize how delicate the balance is that has kept our planet in a brief paradisiacal near-stasis climate for several millennia, and how often runaway climate change has happened in our planet’s past (for many reasons, mostly unknown), it’s not too hard to accept. We’ve just unwittingly accelerated the process this time.

There will be large scale species extinction — it’s already begun and it’s also not a new phenomenon on this planet. Life will go on. Some like it hot. There will be a steady exodus toward the poles by many species, with varying degrees of success. What will evolve in the planet’s new super-hot, super-stormy zones is anyone’s guess.

From that perspective, the timing of the collapse of this civilization’s unstable, global, oil-and-growth dependent industrial economy, and whether we plunder the last of the easily-accessible energy, soil, water, minerals, forests and other resources (a billion years’ worth of accumulated riches) before the climate destabilizes, may seem a bit moot. But it will be very important for our immediate descendants, and for many living today.

As the table above shows, we have little say in (or control over) how all this unfolds. But we have a little. The sooner we bring down our rapacious and wasteful economy, the less severe and longer delayed ecological collapse will be — and the more resources will be left for post-collapse life.

We can (and some say should) help precipitate that economic take-down, through direct action against its most grievous activities — tar sands, nukes, deepwater, shale, mountaintop removal, rainforest razing, ‘blood’ mining, factory farming, forced/slave labour etc. And we can precipitate it by walking away from that teetering economy and shifting our activities to that of the sharing economy — by using, gifting and conserving local, organic, low-energy, durable goods and services in community with each other, without the use of fiat currencies.

Beyond that, there’s not much we can do to prepare for The Fire This Time, except learn some useful new skills, learn how to build (and live in) community (anywhere), get and stay healthy, and cultivate what we might call a resilient, adaptable attitude. Some of the qualities I think might be part of such an ‘attitude’ — a way of being in the world — are (in no particular order) being:
  • generous
  • self-aware and self-knowledgeable
  • attentive (“present”)
  • curious and imaginative (they’re not the same thing)
  • able to let go (open, forgiving, patient, even ‘stoic’)
  • challenging (able to think critically)
  • self-expressive and articulate
  • appreciative and grateful
  • playful, joyful, and able to see beauty everywhere
  • able to relish simple pleasures
  • contemplative, gentle, and at peace
We can’t be these things if we’re not, of course, and the stresses of our modern lives make it hard to be them. But, joyful pessimist that I am, I believe most of these qualities are in most of our natures, if we can find space for them, and let them come out. Adversity tends to bring out the best in us, and we’re now in the headwinds of a maelstrom.

It’s hopeless, but we’ll be fine. One day, everything will be free.

.

KIUC Strategic Plan Briefing

SUBHEAD: Kauai Island Utility Cooperative presentation of updated strategic energy plan for 2013-2025.

By Allan A. Smith on 6 November 2013 for KIUC -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2013/11/kiuc-strategic-plan-briefing.html)


Image above: Aerial view of KIUC Port Allen 6 megawatt solar array under construction in 2012 and now completed. Eleele and Highway at upper left. KIUC generating plant lower right. From (http://www.hawaiicleanenergyinitiative.org/imported-20101004182628/2012/8/24/kauai-moves-ahead-in-pursuit-of-renewable-energy.html).

The board of directors of Kauai Island Utility Cooperative invites you to attend briefings on the cooperative's updated strategic plan for 2013 through 2025.

Directors and staff will present an overview of the plan and details on how KIUC plans to reduce customer bills by at least 10 percent through its renewables strategy, cost containment, energy efficiency and a rate adjustment process known as decoupling.

Decoupling essentially rewrites the utility's traditional rate-making practice by removing the incentive for the utility to increase revenue by selling more electricity.

The old business model is at odds with the energy efficiency efforts of today, which encourage customers to use less power. Decoupling establishes a periodic adjustment process that ensures the utility is taking in only enough money to pay for its operations and to maintain the margin required by its lenders.

Using the latest forecasts on oil prices and renewable energy, we will talk about the projected impact decoupling would have on your rates and how the adjustment process will work.

Here's a good overview from the Natural Resources Defense Council on the benefits of decoupling: http://www.nrdc.org/energy/decoupling/

Decoupling and our strategic plan are important initiatives for your cooperative so I hope you'll attend one of the three simultaneous meetings we will hold on Nov. 14 at 6:00 pm.

The meetings will be:

WHAT:
Strategic Energy Plan Briefing

WHO:
Presented by Kauai Island Utility Cooperative

WHEN:
Thursday, November 14th 2013 at 6:00pm

WHERE:
Waimea Theatre, 9691 Kaumualii Highway, Waimea
Kauai Island Utility Cooperative office, 4463 Pahee Street, Lihue
Hanalei School, 5-5415 Kuhio Highway, Hanalei

We look forward to seeing you on November 14th.

• Allan A. Smith is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Kauai Island Utility Cooperative.

.

Obama shaken by Boehner support

SOURCE: Katherine Muzik (kmuzik@gmail.com
SUBHEAD: GOP strategy for Middle East is two fold. Bomb Syria and defund Obamacare.
.
By Andy Borowitz on 4 September 2013 for the New Yorker -
(http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/09/obama-shaken-by-boehners-support.html)


Image above: Boehner meets with Obama in White House. From (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303365804576432164007052674.html).

Aides to President Obama said today that he was “visibly shaken” after receiving support from House Speaker John Boehner for his Syria campaign, adding that the Speaker’s vote of confidence was “making him rethink the whole thing.”

An aide to Mr. Obama, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that he was in the Oval Office with the President when he got the call from Mr. Boehner: “As it became clear that Boehner was going to support him on this, he looked more and more stunned. He was trying to stay calm and all but you could see that he was really taken aback.”

After putting down the phone with Mr. Boehner, the President reportedly told aides, “Boehner’s supporting it. That’s so weird. This is still a good idea, right?”

Moments after the President had “seemed to settle down,” the aide said, he received a phone call from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who also offered his support for the Syria plan.

“That one really rattled him,” the aide said. “He was like, ‘I think I need to take a long walk.’”

The calls from Mr. Boehner and Mr. Cantor have created what the aide called “the biggest crisis of confidence this President has ever experienced.”

“I checked in on him later in the day, just to see if he was O.K.,” the aide said. “He was cradling his head in his hands saying, ‘I just don’t know. I just don’t know anymore.’”

While the President’s plan to attack Syria remains on the table, the aide indicated that the situation is very fluid: “If Rand Paul calls today and says he’s in, the whole thing goes away.”


GOP Syria strategy - Defund Obamacare

By Andy Borowitz on 3 September 2013 for the New Yorker -
(http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/09/republicans-offer-syria-strategy-we-must-defund-obamacare.html)

As the debate over Syria moves to the United States Congress, a leading Senate Republican said today that the only way to resolve the crisis in the war-torn Middle Eastern country is by “defunding Obamacare at once.”

Appearing on the Fox News Channel, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told host Sean Hannity, “If we’re trying to send a strong message to [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad, I can think of no better way to do that than by defunding Obamacare.”

Elaborating on his strategy, Sen. Cruz added, “By defunding Obamacare, we would basically be saying to Assad, ‘This is how we attack our own President, so just imagine what we’ll do to you.’ That would make him think twice before he pulls another one of his stunts.”

“You can fire off as many Tomahawk missiles as you want,” said Sen. Cruz. “But they won’t have the same impact on Syria as defunding Obamacare.”

Shortly after his appearance, Sen. Cruz’s statements drew a sharp rebuke from a fellow Republican, Arizona Senator John McCain, who called the prospect of bombing Syria “the only thing I have to live for.”

“Look, I’ve been in a very dark place since the 2008 election,” Sen. McCain told reporters. “There have been a lot of mornings when, quite frankly, I haven’t had a reason to get out of bed. It’s all well and good for people like Ted Cruz to criticize Tomahawk missiles, but hitting Syria is all that’s keeping me going.”

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Obama's Useless Blow 8/29/13

.

New Grand Strategy

SOURCE: Ken Taylor (taylork021@hawaii.rr.com)
SUBHEAD: Why walkable communities, sustainable economics, and multilateral diplomacy are the future of American power.

By Robert Steuteville on 15 April 2013 for Better Cities - 
 (http://bettercities.net/article/new-grand-strategy-includes-new-urbanism-19995)


Image above: Obama pondering in the Oval Office. From original site of article below.

[IB Publisher's note: It's more likely that for most people the future will be in walkable villages and not walkable cities. As in the 19th century,  most people will be in rural (not suburban) settings and be involved with food production.] 

The US won the Cold War at least partly through generating demand for its industries by building suburbia, but that strategy no longer works in the 21st Century, writes Patrick Doherty, Deputy Director with the New America Foundation, in Foreign Policy Magazine. Use this link or see full article below.

Now the US is facing long-term unemployment driven by weakness in aggregate demand for goods and services that our economy is providing. Doherty argues for a new “grand strategy” based upon new sources of demand, including walkable communities.

“Fortunately, due to large-scale demographic shifts over the past 20 years, the United States is sitting astride three vast pools of [demand],” Doherty writes in the article, titled "A New US Grand Strategy: Why walkable communities, sustainable economics, and multilateral diplomacy are the future of American power." He elaborates:

“Walkable communities: The first pool of demand is homegrown. American tastes have changed from the splendid isolation of the suburbs to what advocates are calling the ‘five-minute lifestyle’ — work, school, transit, doctors, dining, playgrounds, entertainment all within a five-minute walk of the front door.” The Baby Boomers and Millennials “will converge in the housing marketplace — seeking smaller homes in walkable, service-rich, transit-oriented communities. Already, 56 percent of Americans seek this lifestyle in their next housing purchase. That’s roughly three times the demand for such housing after World War II.”
"The motivations are common across the country. Boomers are downsizing and working longer, and they fear losing their keys in the car-dependent suburbs. Millennials were raised in the isolated suburbs of the 1980s and 1990s, and 77 percent never want to go back. ... Yet legacy federal policies — from transportation funding to housing subsidies — remain geared toward the Cold War imperative of population dispersion and exploitation of the housing shortage, and they are stifling that demand."
The other pools are regenerative agriculture — sustainable farming techniques —which could help bring greater prosperity to the Midwest, and resource productivity. To bring 3 billion new middle-class aspirants into the global economy requires that ... “Energy and resource intensity per person will have to drop dramatically — while simultaneously delivering on the improved income and lifestyle expectations that come with global connectivity. Doherty writes:
“That revolution will drive ... innovation in material sciences, engineering, advanced manufacturing, and energy production, distribution, and consumption,” bringing prosperity to the middle class for decades."

A New U.S. Grand Stretegy


By Patrick Doherty on 9 January 2013 for Foreign Policy -
(http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/a_new_US_grand_strategy)

The strategic landscape of the 21st century has finally come into focus. The great global project is no longer to stop communism, counter terrorists, or promote a superficial notion of freedom. Rather, the world must accommodate 3 billion additional middle-class aspirants in two short decades -- without provoking resource wars, insurgencies, and the devastation of our planet's ecosystem. For this we need a strategy.

The status quo is untenable. In the United States, the country's economic engine is misaligned to the threats and opportunities of the 21st century. Designed explicitly to exploit postwar demand for suburban housing, consumer goods, and reconstruction materials for Europe and Japan, the conditions that allowed it to succeed expired by the early 1970s. Its shelf life has since been extended by accommodative monetary policy and the accumulation of household, corporate, and federal debt. But with Federal Reserve interest rates effectively zero, Americans' debt exceeding their income, and storms lashing U.S. cities, the country is at the end of the road.

Abroad, Washington's post-Cold War pattern of episodic adventurism and incremental crisis management only creates further uncertainty, and rising powers will not lead. Other major economies have little appetite for altering the global order and hence are doubling down on the old system, exacerbating trade imbalances and driving record resource extraction. As commodity prices rise, global powers are hedging ever more aggressively -- stockpiling resources and increasingly becoming entangled in conflicts in resource-rich areas. As the global economy falters, unrest rises and the great unresolved conflicts of the 20th century -- the Middle East, South Asia, North Korea, Taiwan -- grow increasingly enmeshed in the power dynamics of this new era.

Simply put, the current U.S. and international order is unsustainable, and myriad disruptions signal that it is now in a process of collapse. Until the United States implements a new grand strategy, the country will face even more rapid degradation of domestic and global conditions.

This is not an over-the-horizon danger. The interplay of four strategic antagonists is causing Americans daily harm.

Economic Inclusion

The ranks of the world's nouveaux riches are swelling. The planet is on track to welcome 3 billion new members of the global middle class in the next 20 years. For those fortunate enough to climb out of poverty, advancement translates into a 300 percent increase in income and resource consumption.

That's great for each individual, but as a whole, it will strain our planet to the breaking point. We are not ready to meet the needs of this new middle class: Over the last 20 years, the world absorbed just 1 billion new consumers. Commodity prices, which have risen more than 300 percent over the last decade, are poised for further gains -- and we know that when the prices of strategic commodities rise sufficiently, markets do not adapt so much as states intervene to gain or preserve access to them, whether energy, water, food, or strategic minerals.

Ecosystem Depletion

Human activity has disrupted the equilibrium of the Earth's planetary systems. We are emitting too much carbon, we are changing the chemistry of both freshwater and saltwater bodies, and we are overconsuming the natural capital we rely on to produce life-giving ecosystem services.

We are straining our planet to the breaking point, risking abrupt changes to the ecosystem. Climate change is the most pressing: Hurricane Sandy; droughts in the American Midwest, India, China, and Russia; accelerated Arctic melting; and record temperatures are just this past year's headlines. With no further change in policy, we will see 6-degree Celsius warming by the end of the century. Well before 2050, we will face widespread food insecurity, economic disruption, mass human migration, and regional war as these critical systems degrade further.

Contained Depression

The United States is not experiencing a mere business-cycle downturn -- this is a "contained depression." The 2008 financial crisis triggered a broad deleveraging (debt crisis) across households and businesses. Incomes failed to service record levels of consumer and corporate debt, further reducing employment and in turn reducing revenues to state and federal governments.

While Federal Reserve policy, the TARP bailout, and the stimulus bill have contained the worst of the economic pain, the limits of monetary policy are in sight. The federal funds rate is effectively zero; quantitative easing is merely propping up asset prices to contain unemployment; and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's "maturity extension program" has now expired, after trading $667 billion in short-term securities for longer-term notes. Meanwhile, American households and businesses have only begun to address their deep indebtedness.

Bernanke and his colleagues cannot generate the circumstances necessary to end the depression -- reviving aggregate demand and restoring the economics of lending and equity investment. Congress can't either, as pumping more stimulus dollars into the economy or fixing the federal debt won't do the trick. Consumer preferences have shifted such that pumping more money into fixing old infrastructure or directly into citizens' bank accounts will have no lasting effect beyond propping up the old, unsustainable economy and adding to deficits. In the short and medium terms, borrowing rates for the U.S. government will remain low and will not crowd out private lending, meaning the extraordinary amount of political attention being paid to long-term entitlements is misplaced.

Well before the country hits the entitlement wall, the economy is at great risk of deepening its austerity spiral as businesses shed employees to appear more profitable to shareholders. That will further reduce household incomes, decreasing demand and government revenue in turn. Meanwhile, extended American economic weakness will only exacerbate the global macroeconomic risk from the eurozone to China.

Resilience Deficit

The systems, supply chains, and infrastructure that connect our markets are fragile and prone to disruption. Today's "value chains" are designed to increase efficiency but have little redundancy. Take the March 2011 Japanese tsunami, for instance: This natural disaster curtailed production of auto parts used by all six major American and Japanese automakers, shutting down production plants across the United States and helping to drive up unemployment from 8.9 to 9.1 percent. In October 2011, flooding in Thailand led to global disruptions in U.S. computer manufacturing. Around the same time, China shut off exports of rare-earth minerals -- it produces 95 percent of the global supply -- for three months. As a result, prices for light bulbs, wind turbines, and batteries spiked.

It's not just supply chains. Infrastructure arrears in the United States alone stand at $2.2 trillion. And that is just to get the bridges, roads, railways, schools, ports, and airports that undergird the Cold War-era economic engine up to standard. America's food system periodically spreads E. coli and other pathogens across the country. And in 2008, we watched as toxic mortgage-backed assets from the American market spread globally, contributing to disruptions from the Royal Bank of Scotland to the Greek treasury.

These four challenges -- inclusion, depletion, depression, and resilience -- are the four horsemen of the coming decades. They will determine both economic performance and geopolitical threats. Worse, they are interdependent: We cannot accommodate 3 billion new consumers without addressing climate change, America's austerity spiral, or the design of the country's outmoded infrastructure. It is, as the engineers say, a wicked problem. Yet, large though it is, America has a tool for addressing this scale of challenge.

A Return to Grand Strategy

For the United States, a grand strategy is a generation's plan to create the global conditions necessary for the country to pursue the great purposes set forth in the preamble of the U.S. Constitution. It looks at the world, it looks at America, and it defines the broad path the country must take to advance its most sacred objectives.

Throughout U.S. history, grand strategy has navigated between two unacceptable extremes: Empire America and Fortress America. Being an empire -- governing other lands and peoples outside the U.S. Constitution -- is an affront to America's core principles of democracy and self-government. Isolationism, in turn, risks the certain rise of unacceptable threats to commerce, security, and basic American values.

To meet the global challenges of World War II and the Cold War, U.S. leaders innovated in the design of grand strategy. As practiced by Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower, grand strategy became the correlation of America's economic engine, its foreign policy, and its governing institutions to meet the great global challenge of the era.

In both World War II and the Cold War, the secret to America's success was that the country harnessed its economy to do the heavy lifting. In World War II, America became the Arsenal of Democracy, outproducing the Axis. The country enlisted its industry to arm and equip its allies while building up its own military from 450,000 troops to 16 million; it aggressively pursued the war aims enshrined in the Atlantic Charter; and it reorganized government to enable it to pursue both aims. In the Cold War, America could not defeat the Soviets militarily, so it organized a system of containment to best them in a longer-term contest of economic and political systems.

And best them America did. To ensure the Soviets' defeat, Truman and Eisenhower did not leave the economic contest to any invisible hand. Rather, they systematically oriented the U.S. economy to take advantage of the demand in the system: suburban housing, consumer goods, and reconstruction materials for Europe and Japan. By living the American Dream, Americans helped stop Soviet advances.

By the time candidates John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon debated in 1960, Eisenhower's grand strategy had fused with America's cultural DNA -- it was fully adopted and internalized by both political parties, corporate leadership, government bureaucracy, and the American people. Since the Soviet Union's 1991 collapse, however, the United States has failed to identify, adopt, or implement a revised grand strategy.

Instead, over the past 20 years, the United States' default strategy has been to incrementally adjust national security and economic policies to defend and extend its Cold War economic engine. The result is the unsustainable U.S. and international order.

A New Grand Strategic Concept

In the face of the present danger and in the best tradition of the republic, America's response must be to lead. The country must put its own house in order and, with willing partners, author a prosperous, secure, and sustainable future. The task is clear: The United States must lead the global transition to sustainability.

While some great powers and world capitals have been warning of these dangers for some time, it is clear that the effort ultimately requires an upgrade to the current international system. This will require the kind of principled, consistent leadership and hard-nosed geopolitics that only America, at its best, is able to deliver.

America must once again start at home. For a limited time, it will be able to transition its economy to generate sustainable prosperity from deep pools of demand and underutilized capital. Once America commits, with its credibility on the mend and its economy as a wind at its back, it must then lead a new global partnership of major economies to adapt the international order. The halting logic of unwieldy climate negotiations will be supplanted by harnessing the greater force of economic self-interest: The United States will have to work with its partners to forge, implement, and verify a durable transition framework among the world's major economies.

Throughout the transition, America will have to build and strengthen capable partners to provide basic security assurances. Political boundaries will only change through a transparent process of self-determination; global commons will remain open and secure; and sovereignty will be limited only by the responsibility to protect.

This isn't going to be easy. To achieve all this, Washington must redesign its institutions of governance, consistent with the U.S. Constitution, to ensure that government has the appropriate authorities and capabilities, and no more, to implement this strategy at home and abroad.

U.S. Economic Policy


The primary tools of traditional macroeconomic management -- managing the money supply on the one hand and budgetary stimulus or austerity on the other -- are no longer sufficient to generate economic growth.

Central bankers in the United States and abroad are calling for politicians to step up with broader economic policy. Economists from Bernanke to New York Times columnist Paul Krugman agree that the predominant factor driving long-term unemployment is weakness in aggregate demand. Fortunately, due to large-scale demographic shifts over the past 20 years, the United States is sitting astride three vast pools of it. It is now imperative to design a new economic engine to exploit this demand while restoring America's fiscal health.

Walkable communities: The first pool of demand is homegrown. American tastes have changed from the splendid isolation of the suburbs to what advocates are calling the "five-minute lifestyle" -- work, school, transit, doctors, dining, playgrounds, entertainment all within a five-minute walk of the front door. From 2014 to 2029, baby boomers and their children, the millennial generation, will converge in the housing marketplace -- seeking smaller homes in walkable, service-rich, transit-oriented communities. Already, 56 percent of Americans seek this lifestyle in their next housing purchase. That's roughly three times the demand for such housing after World War II.

The motivations are common across the country. Boomers are downsizing and working longer, and they fear losing their keys in the car-dependent suburbs. Millennials were raised in the isolated suburbs of the 1980s and 1990s, and 77 percent never want to go back. Prices have already flipped, with exurban property values dropping while those in walkable neighborhoods are spiking. Yet legacy federal policies -- from transportation funding to housing subsidies -- remain geared toward the Cold War imperative of population dispersion and exploitation of the housing shortage, and they are stifling that demand.

Regenerative agriculture: To meet rising population and income levels, the world needs to increase global food production by 60 percent by 2050, and 100 percent of that new total will need to be regenerative -- restoring our soils and cleaning our waterways in the process. For the American farmer, the increase in demand is already translating to record prices, but the heartland is held back from capturing the additional gain from regenerative methods -- up to three times the profits per acre and 30 percent higher yields during drought -- because of federal policy set in 1972.

It is time to restore America's heartland. Instead of depleting soils and polluting rivers, the country will adopt modern methods that will bring more land into cultivation, keep families on the land, and build regional food systems that keep more money circulating in local economies.

Resource productivity: To bring 3 billion new middle-class aspirants into the global economy requires a revolution in resource productivity. Energy and resource intensity per person will have to drop dramatically -- while simultaneously delivering on the improved income and lifestyle expectations that come with global connectivity.

That revolution will drive the logic behind a new engine of innovation in material sciences, engineering, advanced manufacturing, and energy production, distribution, and consumption. In the United States, the high-wage, high-skill jobs emerging from this revolution will restore and strengthen America's middle class for decades.

Excess liquidity: U.S. policy will be to channel excess liquidity -- now held as corporate cash or seeking refuge in the bond market bubble, money market funds, and underperforming sovereign wealth funds -- toward the full spectrum of possible investments for America's changing economy. Taxes will shift from work to waste while favoring sustainable, long-term investment. New, regional investment banks will be formed to provide the interface between investors and regional growth strategies, bundling and marketing securities that provide the cash flow necessary for sustained innovation and transition across multiple local jurisdictions, while keeping more capital circulating in local economies. As a result, government investments in critical infrastructure can be reduced -- dropping well below the 80 percent level associated with the federal share of highway infrastructure.

Stranded hydrocarbon assets: As Americans realize their walkable American Dream, as farmers make more money feeding the world with regenerative farming, and as the United States rebuilds its middle class, employment and prosperity will rise and America's carbon emissions will drop. The country can do well and do good.

It must, however, also do more. The scientific community insists we must calibrate our policy to keep global warming within a 2-degree Celsius upper limit. This strategy will tune U.S. domestic and foreign policies to do so.

With no further action, however, markets will begin to devalue the unburnable proven hydrocarbon assets on the books of publicly listed companies and state-owned energy producers the moment such a policy is declared. The resulting shock to hydrocarbon energy companies, which make up roughly 11 percent of the S&P 500 index, would pose a systemic risk to domestic and global markets. Globally, the top 200 hydrocarbon companies have a combined value of $7.42 trillion, and some estimates value the total stranded asset pool as high as $20 trillion, or 40 percent of global GDP.

It is imperative, therefore, for the United States to convene domestic and global stakeholders to manage this market transition to avoid such an unacceptable disruption in global markets, index funds, and Americans' retirement security. Washington should work with industry, scientific leaders, and other key stakeholders to negotiate a framework and predictable timetable to minimize the downside risk, to find non-emitting uses for hydrocarbons, and to turn the transition into another driver of innovation while redirecting investment flows into other market segments.

U.S. Foreign Policy: A New Global Partnership

With America's domestic house in order, the United States will be in a position to lead the global transition to sustainability. While the United States cannot achieve global sustainability alone, it need not convince its partners of the challenges we all face. Most of the world's major economies have already identified economic inclusion and ecosystem depletion as first-order strategic challenges. With a robust new economic engine changing America's global interests, the commitment, scale, and pace of its economic engine will allow it to convene the world's major economies in a forum to establish and implement the norms necessary for an orderly transition to global sustainability. These new norms fall within the following categories:

Regional convergence: Regional-scale economies, such as the United States, China, India, and Europe, are the primary actors in today's global economy. All are unsustainable, and each requires a tailored internal economic strategy to reduce trade imbalances, manage debt, and reverse overconcentration of global production.

Meanwhile, smaller countries' economies have often found themselves caught between these giants -- becoming dangerously dependent upon them and drained of their resources, wealth, or human capital. Without the advantage of scale, most of these countries have little practical chance of achieving the kinds of economic growth that will meet the expectations of their citizenries. This inadequate, two-tier design is only exacerbating our continued unsustainability.

Every continental-scale economic region must embark on a decisive sustainability strategy without delay. Working within existing norms of the World Trade Organization and the United Nations, America will lead the partnership of major economies to refashion the global economic system around eight or nine economic blocs, each boasting the scale necessary to support mature industrial ecosystems. This will mean promoting and strengthening regional economic blocs such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Union of South American Nations, the African Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

Development: It is not only the United States that needs to get its house in order. Within all regional-scale economic areas, the country will work with the global partnership to promote a mode of development that results in prosperity, security, and sustainability for their citizens.

Export-led growth and resource-extraction strategies will no longer suffice. Housing, agriculture, and resource productivity will be the drivers of sustainable economic development, producing jobs, investment, and government revenue. While each region will have a unique starting point, global income convergence will unleash substantial trade opportunities as each region develops robust internal markets. Solutions pioneered in one region will find markets in others. As multiple regions create advanced manufacturing capability, global supply chains will become more dynamic and resilient.

Access and participation: Most of the world's population still does not have access to the formal sector of its local market and therefore cannot participate in this great global project. A whopping 4 billion citizens do not have access to basic market tools: They do not have identity papers, title to property, or access to courts, banks, credit, or insurance. Until these people get the economic franchise, we will be unable to realize the goal of global sustainability.

Egypt presents a case study of this phenomenon. In the world's largest Arab country, 90 percent of real estate is held outside the formal sector. As a result, there is no effective housing market -- and with a bulge of young people looking to start families, Egypt's underlying economic crisis will continue to fester.

We cannot allow this to continue. Closed, dysfunctional, or corrupt markets cannot be harnessed to meet the kind of strategic economic challenges we face today. The United States will work with the world's major economies to rapidly extend universal access to basic market tools and establish full economic participation as a global norm.

Assurance through transition: The great threat to American security in the coming decades of the 21st century stems from the unsustainability of the international order.

Although addressing this threat is primarily an economic and geopolitical exercise, the U.S. national security establishment must ensure that economic and political actors have sufficient space and time to adapt the system at home and, in partnership, abroad. The mission of America's national security establishment in this new era must be to maintain and extend that space while providing, to friend and foe alike, a credible assurance that America is committed to, and will actively promote, a rules-based international order.

Multilaterally when possible, unilaterally if necessary, America will work to ensure that borders, global commons, and basic standards of human rights will be respected by all countries. The transition to sustainability will be a complex and dynamic undertaking. Its political impact will be unprecedented: Borders, many set during colonial rule, will come under strain. America will work with its partners to ensure that any borders that are changed are done so by mutual consent and self-determination, not by violence or coercion. It will assert its right of access to the global commons as much as it will honor its responsibility to respect them as a sustainable platform for navigation, commerce, and ecosystem services. Finally, the United States will continue to insist on all countries' respect for basic human rights, and it will accept the global responsibility to protect against their gross and systematic violation.

American policy will be to reduce global demand, over time, for U.S. military intervention by building capable regional security partners wherever possible -- though the United States will maintain and position expeditionary forces commensurate with objective global risks.

U.S. Governance

Just as America would never fight a 21st-century war with Korean War-era weapons, it should not govern today with institutions devised for a bygone era. The Founding Fathers established a constitution that allows for the adaptation of the institutions of government to the knowledge, threats, and opportunities confronting each generation. Americans should make use of that foresight. Under this strategy, the country will adapt the institutions of its federal government to execute this grand strategy and invest in the American people to ensure that they receive the opportunities they need to be informed and engaged citizens.

Governing institutions: Today's executive branch was largely designed to support the country through the Cold War, and it is misaligned to the requirements of the 21st century. The U.S. national security establishment can barely see the challenges of today, let alone predict the crises of tomorrow. America's domestic departments are designed to support an economic strategy that is now weakening the country. Congress is supposed to oversee this system, but it too cannot rise above the noise. The White House, meanwhile, has not maintained a robust strategic capacity since 1961.

Just as the 1947 National Security Act adapted the U.S. national security establishment to take on the Cold War, the country will adapt again to implement and manage this strategy. It will reorganize agencies and departments to execute the elements of this strategy. Congress will be encouraged to align its oversight committees to the new federal departments.

In peacetime, U.S. foreign-policy agencies -- providing defense, diplomacy, development, and intelligence -- will align around one map and fall under integrated civilian control at the global, regional, and country levels. Domestically, the United States will clear out the economic policies of the past and ensure that housing, agriculture, and resource productivity are incentivized and regulated to ensure fair, robust, and open markets with strong consumer protections.

Opportunity society: When Americans are secure, they are the most productive and engaged in the world. The United States will recommit itself to making world-leading investments in the American people, the country's greatest national resource.

Education, health care, retirement security, and scientific knowledge are the cornerstone of the opportunity society. With a new economic engine providing the private income and public revenue necessary for such investments, and with fiscal health restored, the country will examine and select the most effective models for ensuring world-class public education, achieving universal health-care coverage, and earning a worry-free retirement. Funding for basic science and early-stage innovation will be expanded significantly to keep America the leading research and innovation center in the world.

Minding American Strategy

America has never confronted a global challenge of the type or magnitude it faces today. If it does not change course, the United States will be racked by violent storms -- both figurative and literal -- as the global order breaks down. The country cannot delay. For a few short years, it has a window in which it can choose an incredibly prosperous 21st century, but that window will close. It is time once more to lead the world through difficult change.

The United States must first get its own house in order. It will adapt its industry. It will build a new American Dream. It will lead the world by example while defining the future and inspiring greatness. And America will do all this while emerging from an economic depression that is wasting its most precious resource -- its citizens' talents.

It is, as the great strategist George Kennan understood, the truest test of America's worth as a nation. And while some might say U.S. politics are not up to the task, the great purposes for which America's founders brought forward the United States endure: liberty, justice, the common defense, and the general welfare -- not only for ourselves, but also for future generations. These are the sacred goals of the United States, and they are calling a new generation to author a bold and uncompromising future that remains prosperous, secure, and sustainable.

To succeed, America must revive and update the discipline of grand strategy. It must create a civilian Office of National Strategy, within the executive branch, to organize the effort. The country must, from this moment forward, expose the framework of U.S. national strategy to democratic scrutiny and adapt it as conditions evolve. By articulating and monitoring U.S. strategy, citizens and representatives can challenge its elements and refine the metrics, targets, and actions necessary for implementation -- and be less distracted by the loud voices of narrow interests.
.