Economic History in 10 Minutes

SUBHEAD: Fractional reserve banking will produce results of a Ponzi scheme. A few may profit, but the vast majority will lose what they have. Image above: Detail from "Christ Driving the Moneychangers from the Temple" by Rembrandt van Rijn, 1626. From (http://dallasatheists.blogspot.com/2009/11/temple-tantrum.html) By Richard Heinberg on 5 April 2010 in Post Carbon Institute - (http://www.postcarbon.org/article/87479-economic-history-in-10-minutes)

Throughout over 90 percent of our species’ history, we humans lived by hunting and gathering in what anthropologists call gift economies. People had no money, and there was neither barter nor trade among members of any given group. Trade did exist, but it occurred only between members of different communities.

It’s not hard to see why sharing was the norm within each band of hunter-gatherers, and why trade was restricted to relations with strangers. Groups were small, usually comprising between 15 and 50 persons, and everyone knew and depended upon everyone else. Trust was essential to individual survival, and competition would have undermined trust. Trade is an inherently competitive activity: each trader tries to get the best deal possible, even at the expense of other traders. For hunter-gatherers, cooperation—not competition—was the route to success, and so innate competitive drives (especially among males) were moderated through ritual and custom, while a thoroughly entangled condition of mutual indebtedness helped maintain a generally cooperative attitude on everyone’s part.

Today we still enjoy vestiges of the gift economy, notably in the family. We don’t keep close tabs on how much we are spending on our three-year-old child in an effort to make sure that accounts are settled at some later date; instead, we provide food, shelter, education and more as free gifts, out of love. Yes, parents enjoy psychological rewards, but (at least in the case of mentally healthy parents) there is no conscious process of bargaining, in which we tell the child, "I will give you food and shelter if you repay me with goods and services of equivalent or greater value."

For humans in simple societies, the community was essentially like a family. Freeloading was occasionally a problem, and when it became a drag on the rest of the community it was punished by subtle or not-so-subtle social signals—ultimately, ostracism. But otherwise no one kept score of who owed whom what; to do so would have been considered very bad manners.

We know this from the accounts of 20th-century anthropologists who visited surviving hunter-gatherer societies. Often they reported on the amazing generosity of people who seemed eager to share everything they owned despite having almost no material possessions and being officially listed by aid agencies as among the poorest people on the planet.

Anthropologists routinely felt embarrassed by this generosity, and, in one instance after another, after being gifted some prized food or a painstakingly hand-made basket, immediately offered a manufactured knife or ornament in return. The anthropologists assumed that natives would be happy to receive the trinkets, but the recipients instead appeared insulted. What had happened? The natives’ initial gifts were a way of saying, "You are part of the family; welcome!" But the immediate offering of a gift in return smacked of trade—something only done with strangers. The anthropologists were understood as having said, "No, thanks. I do not wish to be considered part of your family; I want to remain a stranger to you." It was the ultimate faux pas!

Here is all of economic history compressed into one sentence: As societies have grown more complex, larger, more far-flung and diverse, the tribe-based gift economy has shrunk in importance, while the trade economy has grown to dominate nearly every aspect of people’s lives, and has expanded in scope to encompass the entire planet.

With more and more of our daily human interactions based on exchange rather than gifting, we have developed polite ways of being around each other on a daily basis while maintaining an exchange-mediated social distance. This is particularly the case in large cities, where anonymity is fostered also by the sheer numbers of people one sees from day to day. In the best instances, we still take care of one another—through government programs and private charities. We still enjoy some of the benefits of the old gift economy in our families and churches. But increasingly, the market rules our lives. Our apparent destination in this relentless trajectory toward expansion of trade is a world in which everything is for sale, and all human activities are measured by and for their monetary value.

Humanity has benefited in many obvious ways from this economic evolution: the gift economy really only worked when we lived in small bands and had almost no possessions to speak of. So letting go of the gift economy was a trade-off for progress—houses, cities, cars, iPods, and all the rest. Still, saying goodbye to community-as-family was painful, and there have been various attempts throughout history to try to revisit it.

Communism was one such attempt, and we know how that worked out. Trying to institutionalize a gift economy at the scale of the nation state introduces all kinds of problems, including those of how to reward initiative and punish laziness in ways that everyone finds acceptable, and how to deter corruption among those whose job it is to collect, count, and reapportion the wealth.

But, back to our tour of economic history. Along the road from the gift economy to the trade economy there were several important landmarks. Of these, the invention of money was arguably the most important. Money is essentially a tool to facilitate trade. People invented it because they needed a medium of exchange to make trading easier, simpler, and more flexible.

Once money came into use, the exchange process was freed to grow and to insert itself into aspects of life where it had never been permitted previously. Money simultaneously began to serve other functions as well—principally, as a measure and store of value.

Today we take money for granted. But until fairly recent times it was an oddity, something only merchants used on a daily basis. Some complex societies, including ancient Egypt, managed to do almost completely without it; even in the U.S., until the mid-20th century, many rural families used money only for occasional trips into town to buy nails, boots, glass, or other items they couldn’t grow or make for themselves on the farm.

In his marvelous book The Structures of Everyday Life: Civilization & Capitalism 15th-18th Century, historian Fernand Braudel wrote of the gradual insinuation of the money economy into the lives of medieval peasants:

"What did it actually bring? Sharp variations in prices of essential foodstuffs; incomprehensible relationships in which man no longer recognized either himself, his customs or his ancient values. His work became a commodity, himself a ‘thing.’"

While early forms of money consisted of anything from sheep to shells, coins made of gold and silver gradually emerged as the most practical, universally accepted means of exchange, measure of value, and store of value.

Money’s ease of storage enabled industrious individuals to accumulate substantial amounts of wealth. But this concentrated wealth also presented a target for thieves. Thievery was especially a problem for traders: while the portability of money enabled them to travel for long distances to purchase rare fabrics and spices, highwaymen often lurked along the way, ready to snatch a purse at knife-point.

These problems led to the invention of banking—a practice in which metal-smiths who routinely dealt with large amounts of gold and silver (and who were accustomed to keeping it in secure, well-guarded vaults) agreed to store other people’s coins, offering storage receipts in return. Storage receipts could then be traded as money, thus making trade easier and safer.

Eventually, goldsmith-bankers realized that they could issue paper receipts for more gold than they had in their vaults, without anyone being the wiser. They did this by making loans of the receipts, for which they charged a fee amounting to a percentage of the loan.

Initially the Church regarded the practice of profiting from loans as a sin—known as "usury"—but the bankers found a loophole in religious doctrine: it was permitted to charge for reimbursement of expenses incurred in making the loan; this was termed "interest." Gradually bankers widened the definition of "interest" to include what had formerly been called "usury."

The practice of loaning out receipts for gold that didn’t really exist worked fine, unless many receipt-holders wanted to redeem paper notes for gold or silver all at once. Fortunately for the bankers, this happened so rarely that eventually the writing of receipts for more money than was on deposit became a perfectly respectable practice known as fractional reserve banking.

It turned out that having increasing amounts of money in circulation was a benefit to traders and industrialists during the historical period when all of this was happening—a time when unprecedented amounts of new wealth were being created, first through colonialism and slavery, but then through the harnessing of the enormous energies of fossil fuels.

The last impediment to money’s ability to act as a lubricant for transactions was its remaining tie to precious metals. As long as paper notes were redeemable for gold or silver, the amounts of these substances existing in vaults put at least a theoretical restraint on the process of money creation. Paper currencies not backed by metal had sprung up from time to time previously; by the late 20th century, they were the near-universal norm.

Along with more abstract forms of currency, the past century has also seen the appearance and growth of ever-more sophisticated investment instruments. Stocks, bonds, options, futures, long- and short-selling, derivatives, credit default swaps, and more now enable investors to make (or lose) money on the movement of prices of real or imaginary properties and commodities, and to insure their bets, and even their bets on other investors’ bets.

Probably the most infamous investment scheme of all time was created by Charles Ponzi, an Italian immigrant to the U.S. who, in 1919, began promising investors he could double their money within 90 days. Ponzi told clients the profits would come from buying discounted postal reply coupons in other countries and redeeming them at face value in the United States—a technically legal practice that could yield up to a 400 percent profit on each coupon redeemed due to differences in currency values.

What he didn’t tell them was that each coupon had to be redeemed individually, so the red tape involved would entail prohibitive costs if large numbers of the coupons (which were only worth a few pennies) were bought and redeemed. In reality, Ponzi was merely paying early investors returns from the principal amounts put down by later investors.

It was a way of shifting wealth from the many to the few, with Ponzi skimming off a lavish income as the money passed through his hands. At the height of the scheme, Ponzi was raking in $250,000 a day, millions in today’s dollars. Thousands of people lost their life savings, in some cases having mortgaged or sold their houses in order to invest.

A few critics (primarily advocates of gold-backed currency) have called fractional reserve banking a kind of Ponzi scheme, and there is some truth to the claim. As long as the real economy of goods and services within a nation is growing, an expanding money supply seems justifiable, arguably necessary. However, a resource-consuming economy cannot continue to grow forever on a finite planet.

Units of currency—which exist today mostly in the form of electronic bookkeeping entries—are essentially claims on labor and resources; and, as those claims multiply (with the growth of the money supply), and as resources deplete, eventually the remaining resources will be insufficient to satisfy all of the existing monetary claims. And so those claims will lose value, perhaps dramatically and suddenly. When this happens, paper and electronic currency systems based on money creation through fractional reserve banking will produce results somewhat similar to those of a Ponzi scheme: i.e., a few may profit, at least temporarily, but the vast majority will lose much or all of what they have.

Is this the end of the story? As society dramatically simplifies itself in the wake of fossil fuel depletion, will we revert to some form of gift economy? Or will we catch and steady ourselves on some intermediate rung on the ladder of economic development?

Only time will tell. Perhaps a general knowledge of our economic history can help us assess the options ahead and plan for a managed "money descent," just as some far-seeing Transition communities are planning for "energy descent."

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False Spring 2010

SUBHEAD: All these lovely mild days, I confess, made me very nervous. Something is happening... out there. Image above: Cherry blossoms in Chautauqua County, New York. The temperature was in the 40ºF range back in April of 1995. Photos taken by Juan Wilson. By James Kunstler on 5 April 2010 in Kunstler.com - (http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/04/false-spring.html) In a place like upstate New York, north of Albany, where April is more generally known as "mud season," and the wait for "ice-out" on the big lakes takes forever, and on frigid nights the windigos steal through the tops of the tall pines -- it would seem foolish to complain about perfectly beautiful weather.
We just had a week in the 70s, with more to come. The grass went from ochre to bright green in about thirty-six hours. The buds are popping like mad. This is usually what the first week of May is like around here, and that fact alone may explain New York state's relentless population drain over the past forty years.
I was out on my bicycle, naturally, taking it all in -- like, why sit inside and sulk because the weather is strange in a pleasant way? -- and I ventured into the outlands east of town, where an impressive number of gigantic new houses had landed like alien mother-ships in the former cow pastures and wood lots. Of course, the aesthetics were an issue apart from the socio-economics of it, but nonetheless interesting.
Each new, gigantic house seemed the result of a losing struggle to reinvent basic design principles that did not require re-invention. I doubt the spirit of joyous "creativity" among the star-architects has seeped down to the level of the provincial house-builders, who, after all, are just assemblers of modular materials like dimensional lumber and eight-foot sheet-rock. It's their inability to assemble these parts coherently that's really striking, so what you get is an endless variety of mistakes along with a complete absence of anything done really well -- which may be the essence of what the "diversity" craze has really meant to us, the ethos of current times.
The abiding quality of all these houses was grandiosity (by which I do not mean grand-ness). That, too, is a signature of these times in America -- the nation too big to fail and tragically destined to do just that on account of its too big to fail-ness. And, of course, one could not fail to wonder, cruising by these hideously ponderous houses, whether as a matter of fact they were failing in terms of the owners' ability to keep up with the payments, for instance. Image above: On the same day, near the cherry tree, comfrey was growing, still covered with snow, and surrounded by new dandelion greens. In the 1990 there were at least two occasions when the cherry blossoms had snow on them as late as Mother's Day in Panama, NY (Chautauqua County). One after another, I pictured a husband and wife within sitting in the sunny breakfast room on Easter morning humped in tears as they sorted through stacks of bills and bank statements... and I imagined the yellow foreclosure tape a few weeks hence atop the weird split-block portico treatments and misbegotten arrays of concrete balusters, and the colossal Palladianesque windows with their pathetic snap-in muntins (and the fantastic solar heat-gain, not figured-in by the designer-builder, that would turn the lawyer-foyer into something like a crematorium by two p.m.)... and the pension fund in Wisconsin or Norway that was sitting on the booby-trapped CDO that contained this sketchy mortgage and thousands of others just like it... and, well, this choo-choo of thoughts led to envisioning the train-wreck of economies and nations that lies in wait just around the bend....
One also could not fail to reflect on the recklessness of a nation that placed untold million-dollar bets on the idea that it would be possible to travel anywhere in an automobile from houses like these a few scant years from now. This far along in the tribulations of our time, most Americans still have not heard of peak oil, and the few who have regard it as some figment that Ralph Nader or Al Gore conjured up on an acid trip in a sweat lodge. The more sophisticated among the mentally unwashed are certain that the earth has a creamy nougat center of low-sulfer light crude oil, or they heard that the Bakken formation in Dakota holds more oil than Saudi Arabia, or that the whole US car and truck fleet will be electrified in a year or two, or that we can drill-baby-drill our way to permanent oil abundance, or just that the American can-do spirit will come up with something to keep Happy Motoring alive because we're the greatest! Such grandiosity!
Personally, I look at these houses scattered around what was only recently a dedicated farm landscape and I am quite sure that the denizens within will be marooned in their great rooms, and that very probably many of them will have no job to go to -- in the conventional sense of what we think a job is, in some corporation or institution -- and that in a surprisingly short span of years these buildings will be ruins or squats. I think these thoughts after struggling up a rather steep hill more than half-a-mile (and many others previously). A trip anywhere from here, to do anything, and the return trip, would occupy an entire day even for someone in decent physical condition. Somebody accustomed to rations of Cheez Doodles and Mountain Dew would be dead by then. There will be lots of dead.
On the macro level, the feeling spreads across the USA that our troubles are behind us. Employment is ticking up. The S & P index only goes up now. The banks have stabilized and those "toxic assets" (which I call "frauds" and "swindles") have been disarmed and safely buried under Yucca Mountain. Housing starts may still be weak, but the "gaming" industry is making great strides in places like the old Puritan commonwealth of Massachusetts, so soon we'll have a virtually automatic economy of leisure-and-entertainment paid for by creaming off a small percentage of the quarters pumped into video slot stations. No doubt the Chinese will be jealous and try to imitate us.
All these lovely mild days, I was not unconscious of the eeriness of the weather and the possible insidious effects of it on the local ecosystem in everything from the added generations of deer ticks carrying Lyme disease and the death of the honeybees to the fate of this year's apple crop. I confess: it made me very nervous. Something is happening... out there. .

Tapped - The Movie

SOURCE: Kenneth Taylor (taylork021@Hawaii.rr.com) SUBHEAD: Protect your health and the health of Planet Earth. Don't drink plastic bottled water. Image above: Graphic logo from titles of "Tapped - The Movie". WHAT: Tapped - The Movie is to be shown on Kauai and is an effective warning to stop drinking water out of plastic bottles. Plastic containers are hazardous to your health. Watch the movie at the following locations to learn why: WHEN & WHERE: Sunday, April 11, 6 PM Lihue Neighborhood Center, 3353 Eono Street - Surfrider Foundation Wednesday, April 14, 6 PM Kekaha Neighborhood Center 8130 Elepaio Road Thursday, April 15, 6 PM Hanapepe Neighborhood Center 4451 Puoloo Road Saturday, April 17, 3 PM Koloa Neighborhood Center 3461 Weliweli Road Thursday, April 22, 6:30 PM Kapa'a Library 1464 Kuhio Highway Saturday, April 24, 3 PM Kalaheo Neighborhood Center 4480 Papalina Road Thursday, April 29, 6 PM Waimea Neighborhood Center 4556 Makeke Road SPONSORS: This film is brought to Kauai Island from the following organizations. The Surfrider Foundation, Zero Waste Kauai, Malama Kauai, Malama Kauai, GMO Free Kauai, The Sierra Club, The Vegetarian Society of Hawaii. REVIEW: (http://www.greenzer.com/blog/5183-tapped-documentary.html)

Before you start rolling your eyes and saying “another eco-documentary?” and then “and it’s about bottled water?”, bear with us. Sure, settling in to watch a film that focuses solely on bottled water sounds boring, but Tapped is anything but. The eco-doc investigates and explores all areas of bottled water and the results are in turn both shocking, appalling, and inspiring.

Brought to you from the producers of Who Killed the Electric Car, Tapped spills the goods on all the bad in the bottled water industry. Think you already know everything there is to know about why we shouldn’t be buying bottled water? You might not. Maybe you acknowledge the environmental issues of using petroleum to make the plastic and not recycling the bottles after (leaving them to linger for hundreds of years), but do you think about the carbon emissions that come from transporting the water from the facility where it’s bottled to your local store? What about the fact that bottled water is less regulated than tap in many cases, and is, in fact, tap water just without the pesky government monitoring. And that’s just the tip of the ice berg (or, in this case, the first sip of the bottle). Click here to read more.

Tapped: The Movie Trailer See also: Ea O Ka Aina: Don't Drink the Bottled Water 8/13/09 Ea O Ka Aina: Bottled Water & Energy 3/10/09

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Superferry Transportation Study

SOURCE: Dick Mayer (dickmayer@earthlink.net) SUBHEAD: The Hawaii State Legislature is preparing to waste more scarce funds on Superferry studies. Image above: A detail of early Superferry website promo claiming passage to Kauai starting in July 2007. It didn't happen. From (http://www.alohadrugs.com/2007/01/launching-of-hawaii-super-ferry-ends.html) [Source's note: The Ferry Study Bill passed the Senate's Ways and Means Committee by a vote of 6-5 (Senator English was "excused". The new Senate draft makes no changes from the House draft but has a new "virtual date" of "July 1, 2050 to facilitate further discussion on the measure" (that will likely be changed later) and NO funding YET. The Department of Transportation could use some of its own funds or potentially some of its Special Harbor users funds to conduct the ferry study. Here is the latest draft] HB 2667 HD 2 SD 1 RELATING TO FERRIES. (http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/session2010/lists/measure_indiv.aspx?billtype=HB&billnumber=2667) BE IT ENACTED BY THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF HAWAII: SECTION 1. The State of Hawaii is made up of a chain of islands, six of which have major population centers. Unlike other states, Hawaii does not have the benefit of being linked to other states through the federal interstate highway system or a network of intersecting state and local highways and roads. With the exception of slow, time-consuming interisland shipping and barge operations for the transportation of property between the islands, the only link between the islands for the transportation of persons is air transportation, with our present reliance on two interisland carriers and a few smaller commuter operations. However, this reliance on air transportation may be misplaced. With the exception of the island of Hawaii, each of the neighbor islands is served by only one airport, and each may be subjected to severe operational interruption in the event of a natural disaster, such as a hurricane or earthquake. Even the Hickam Air Force Base-Honolulu international airport complex, with its location along the shoreline on Oahu, may be operationally shut down by a natural disaster. For example, had the airport at Lihue, Kauai, been shut down operationally in the aftermath of Hurricane Iniki, it would have taken days, if not weeks, before any major aid and relief in the form of water, food, medical supplies, and rescue workers could have reached the island. Hawaii is too reliant on its present slow water carriers and air carriers in the event of a major natural disaster. While the Hawaii Superferry operation had its shortcomings, a rocky start, and a questionable financial forecast, it proved to be a very successful mode of transportation of both persons and property between the islands of Maui and Oahu. It was the missing link in the transportation system between the islands that is so essential for the health, safety, and well-being of the people of Hawaii. The purpose of this Act is to require the department of transportation to conduct a study on the feasibility of establishing a statewide ferry system and ferry system authority to provide the additional link essential for the carriage of persons and property between the islands of the State. SECTION 2. (a) The department of transportation shall conduct a study to determine the feasibility of establishing a statewide ferry system and a Hawaii state ferry system authority as the primary agency for oversight and regulation of the statewide ferry system. (b) The department shall study various types of ferry systems, including passenger-only and passenger, automobile, and cargo ferry systems, that the department determines are suitable for operations within Hawaiian waters, taking into account such parameters as vessel design and speed, passenger capacity, cargo capacity, automobile capacity, availability of smaller vessels for transportation between the islands of Maui, Molokai, and Lanai, and compatibility with harbor infrastructure. The study shall also include: (1) An analysis of potential costs and revenues of a statewide ferry system, as well as economic, social, and physical or other effects upon residents of and visitors to Hawaii; (2) Any impact a statewide ferry system would have on the State and the counties; (3) Information on the financing of a statewide ferry system, including the establishment of rates, fees, rents, charges, or any other payments or costs associated with a statewide ferry system; (4) Information on the development of a special fund for the financial self-sustainability of the statewide ferry system; and (5) Information on the impact that a statewide ferry system would have on the other water carriers in the State. (c) The study shall also include the following information on the development of a Hawaii state ferry system authority: (1) The composition of the authority; (2) The rights, duties, powers, and obligations of the authority in developing, coordinating, and implementing state policies and direction for the safe transportation of persons and property by ferry between the Hawaiian islands; and (3) The ability of the authority to eliminate or reduce barriers to travel by ferry between the Hawaiian islands and provide a positive and competitive business environment. (d) The department shall submit a report of its findings and recommendations, including any proposed legislation, to the legislature no later than twenty days prior to the convening of the regular session of 2011. SECTION 3. This Act shall take effect on July 1, 2050. Report Title: Transportation; Ferry System Study Description: Requires the Department of Transportation to conduct a study on the feasibility of establishing a statewide ferry system and the Hawaii State Ferry System Authority for the operation of a ferry system between the islands. Effective 7/1/2050. .

Corn virus still on Kauai

SUBHEAD: Seed companies say corn virus under control. Ag Research Center says it is a plant problem without a known solution.

 [IB Editor's note: It is not known what native grasses, insects or other species might be affected or are harboring this decease of Kauai GMO corn production.]

 
Image above: Damage to corn from maize chlorotic mottle virus decease. From (http://nu-distance.unl.edu/Homer/disease/agron/corn/CoMCMV.html)  

By Coco Zickos on 4 April 2010 in The Garden Island - 
  (http://thegardenisland.com/news/local/article_447c58a0-407f-11df-a8cd-001cc4c03286.html)

A corn virus that plagued Kaua‘i in the early 1990s has reared its diseased head again but maize chlorotic mottle is “still in a fairly isolated geographical area,” said Pioneer Hi-Bred International Business and Community Outreach Manager Cindy Goldstein.

“We’re certainly carefully monitoring this,” she said, adding it is “not a concern for hobby farmers” or other agricultural practitioners.

Weather patterns in 2009 were similar to 1989, including a wet fall season, which would explain the “explosion of insects” that transmit the virus from one plant to another, said Kaua‘i Agricultural Research Center Associate Plant Pathologist Dr. Jeri Ooka.

Because there has been “exponential growth” in the seed industry since it first arrived on island in 1969, the virus has not had such detrimental effects as it did in the early 1990s when it was still a “small industry,” he said. Now, corn is a dominate player on the Westside.

Although the disease never really went away, it was controlled for 20 years, Ooka said.

While the virus will “often be present at low levels,” seed companies “will see a spike in the disease sometimes” such as last fall when signs of the virus first began appearing in crops, Goldstein said.
The disease typically infects only younger plants, stunting their growth and reducing the quality and quantity of kernels, she said.

This can lead to a production problem, Ooka said.

Syngenta Hawai‘i Outreach Manager Laurie Goodwin said the virus has not disturbed the company’s profit margins, even though it has been detrimental in some localized areas.

“It depends on how things play out,” she said regarding profitability.

Thus far, the virus has not been known to spread to other plant species, Goldstein said, but it can affect different varieties of corn crops, like sweet and field corn.

The virus is “not really transported by seeds,” especially after they are dried prior to being shipped to countries around the world, Ooka said. The lack of moisture makes them “less transmittable.”
However, the disease “probably got here via seeds being sent here,” he added.

To mitigate impact, seed companies have been “cooperating and collaborating” their efforts, Goldstein said.

“It’s not a huge problem,” Ooka said, but “we want to ensure the plant population is healthy.”
Infected plants are immediately removed, said Goldstein, adding that the virus is not known to live in soil or water. “If they even look like they have something,” the corn is quickly eradicated.

Syngenta has also “been really active in rouging out affected plants,” Goodwin said.

The “question that needs to be answered now” is “what is the alternate host and how is it able to survive?” Ooka said.

“There might be another host besides corn, but so far we haven’t found it in anything else yet,” he said. Once another host is pinpointed, the virus may be brought back down to a “very low undetectable level.”

“We cannot figure out where this thing is hiding,” he said.

The good news is “people don’t get plant viruses,” Goldstein said.

“It’s not a people problem, it’s a plant problem,” Ooka said.


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Eco-friendly wastewater pollution

SUBHEAD: Shrimp farm committed to eco-friendly sustainability while expelling up to 30 million gallons of wastewater effluent and treated shrimp remains into the ocean daily.

By Coco Zickos on 3 April 2010 in The Garden Island -  
(http://thegardenisland.com/news/local/article_83fe4e52-3fbc-11df-85f4-001cc4c002e0.html)
  

 
Image above: The overflow weir on Kekaha’s shrimp farm discharge ditch is currently unused. Photo supplied by George Chamberland.  

[Editor's note: "Shrimp farm committed to sustainability" is the title of this article and is high on the recent list of disingenuous hype that have made the way to the top of the front page of the Garden Island. There is no way a that the daily dumping of 30 million gallons of putrid fishfarm waste onto a living reef is sustainable. It is the antithesis. As of now the shrimp farm volume is so low that no waste water needs to be emitted into the ocean. If Sunrise Capital wants to raise shrimp they should do it at a scale, and with techniques, that do not require polluting the ocean. Moreover, what we should be doing is restoring the natural wetlands of the westside of Kauai. Besides Pearl Harbor, Mana wetlands were the most important source of bird and fish diversity in Hawaii. Now they support the US military and GMO mutated crops. We don't want either. Kauai was fortunate that the last time this shrimp-farm operation went viral that we escaped an uncontrolled spread of shellfish disease. For some history see the TGI articles on closing of and quarantine of this same plant in 2004 when a virus wiped out this plant.]
 
Although Sunrise Capital is seeking a permit to expel up to 30 million gallons of wastewater effluent and treated shrimp remains into the ocean daily, the Kekaha aquaculture operation is committed to implementing sustainable and eco-friendly practices, George Chamberlain said this week.

“Everything I stand for is to do things in an environmentally sustainable way,” he said. Chamberlain is president of Global Aquaculture and an owner of Integrated Aquaculture, which purchased the farming operation last year.

Efforts to reduce nutrient levels to “very” diluted levels to mitigate waste matter have been taken seriously, he said Thursday. The operation has been running at minimal levels over the past year with only a “skeleton crew.”

Plastic-lined ponds include a drain system which periodically removes “settled matter,” along with a “skimmer system” which discards “floating material,” according to Department of Health Clean Water Branch officials.

“The nutrient levels in the immediate vicinity of the discharge into the receiving ocean waters are expected to be elevated from ambient conditions,” CWB officials wrote in an e-mail. “However, the adjacent coastal ocean area is not expected to have any noticeable effect associated with the shrimp farm discharge.”

The level of discharge is expected to be lower than the proposed amount at around 12 million gallons a day when operating “at full speed” with all 50 ponds, which vary from one to one-quarter acre in size, Chamberlain said.

“Exactly whether we need that quantity is still a question,” Chamberlain said regarding the amount in the Draft National Pollutant Discharge Elimination application. “Our future is still uncertain.”
Kama‘aina who frequent the neighboring surf spots such as Kinikinis, Major’s Bay and Family Housing are not confident the environment will be unaffected.

Remembering the “oily, filmy and stinky” water when the farm — owned by Ceatch USA at the time — was operating at full capacity from February 2000 to December 2003, Lawa‘i resident Derek Pellin said he is concerned similar effects will happen again.

“You could almost taste it through your skin,” he said last week.

Pellin noted that he can now see the reef there again. “It’s the first time I’ve seen color. Before, you couldn’t even see your feet.”

Often taking his family to the Westside location, Pellin questioned if the discharge permit would even be a consideration at a more popular beach such as Po‘ipu.

“Maybe our lives not as worthy,” he said.

Chamberlain said the shrimp farm was “never out of compliance” during its years of operation. Historical data demonstrates “no perceptible effect to the coastal water quality,” according to CWB officials.

“This is due in part because the coastal waters in the area have very good water circulation and/or current flow which aids in the natural assimilation and renewal of the ocean waters,” the CWB said. “Additionally, the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus from the agriculture or aquaculture discharges to the area are much lower than those found in discharges from other domestic or animal wastewater treatment facilities.”

The prospective discharge will join the area’s agriculture run-off which has been dispelled for “close to 100 years,” Chamberlain said. “There has never been any effect over the entire period.”
Chamberlain said it is “with great confidence” that he can say there will be “no effect” to the environment.

Nonetheless, Jason Badua, born and raised on the Westside, said he is “very concerned about this potentially huge source of water pollution.”

“The pollution from unintended agricultural runoff on this island is already bad enough,” he said. “We shouldn’t be adding to it by allowing intentional pollution. I care deeply about this island. This is home.”

Badua, an avid surfer, also raises concern about the “daily dumping of shrimp remains and effluent” which “sharks may become habituated into showing up for free meals served every day.”

Business proposal
Sunrise Capital intends to expand its operations to include a variety of species including moi, kahala and possibly tuna, Chamberlain said.

The aquaculture farm expects to produce several species which would be “sold fresh” only within the state, he said.

“Not attempting to produce any large quantities of any one species to the point of having to freeze and send to the Mainland” is the company’s objective, Chamberlain said. “The minute we have to freeze and process converts the product to a less valuable form.”

Using the most advanced technology and “selectively breeding ... genetically improved animals” will also be part of Sunrise Capital’s “step-by-step process” in the coming years, he said.

Clams and oysters may also be harvested, which would help to “remove the tint of algae” from the wastewater discharge, he said. “Our objective is to recycle and reuse as much as we can.”

Harvesting algae or biofuel could be another possibility in the company’s future.

“Our goal is not so much to ramp up” to a full-scale operation right away, Chamberlain said.
However, within the next year and into 2011, the farm should be performing at a larger capacity, he said.

“This could be quite a benefit to Kaua‘i,” Chamberlain said. “Our goal is to try to make a showcase and have something Kaua‘i can be proud of.”

Water source
To meet its daily fluid needs, Sunrise Capital will only use sea water pumped in from a 550-foot deep well which goes “directly to the farm.”

The water will travel through a volcanic lava bed and will be “filtered over a mile of lava rock,” Chamberlain said. “What comes out of ground is clean, pure ocean water and has essentially very low organic mater.”

In addition, the ponds contain a plastic lining which will make them “totally impermeable” to the ground.

Shrimp virus
The white spot syndrome virus that plagued the farm several years ago, causing the business to cease operations in 2004, had “never been identified in Hawai‘i before,” Chamberlain said.
“What happened to the previous owners was a very unfortunate event,” he said. “It was catastrophic.”
Sunrise Capital “understands what happened to the virus and we know how to control that,” Chamberlain said.
The disease can be transmitted by birds and the company plans on “putting bird netting over the ponds.”
Visit http://www.hawaii.gov/health/environmental/water/cleanwater/index.html to review a copy of the Draft National Pollutant Discharge Elimination application or visit the Kaua‘i District DOH office, 3040 Umi St., Lihu‘e.

Comments must be sent by April 10 to Clean Water Branch, Environmental Management Division, Department of Health, 919 Ala Moana Blvd., Room 301, Honolulu, Hawai‘i, 96814-4920. Objections and requests for a public hearing should also be sent to that address.

Kekaha shrimp operation put under quarantine  

By Chris Cook on 17 April 2004 in The Garden Island - 
  (http://thegardenisland.com/news/article_56685ed4-8ff9-522c-af44-4907362cc5b9.html)

Shrimp from Ceatech's operation in Kekaha are under quarantine. An announcement from the state Department of Agriculture released Friday afternoon said the quarantine on the commercial shrimp farm was put into effect on Wednesday. The quarantine means no shrimp can be moved from the Ceatech Plantation.

A positive test on Ceatech shrimp showed the presumptive presence of the White Spot Syndrome Virus, according to the Department of Agriculture report. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the outbreak Friday to the Office of International Epizootes, the organization concerned with animal health and the international movement of animals.

"While WSSV is a highly contagious and fatal disease for shrimp and other crustaceans, it does not pose any threat to human health, even if affected shrimp are consumed," the report from the Department of Agriculture said. White spots show on the shrimp and rapid death usually follows, the report said. The positive test is the first known detection of the virus in an aquaculture facility in Hawai‘i. The virus has had outbreaks in Japan, China, Thailand, Korea, the Philippines and in Central and South America.

"Due to the isolation of the farm on Kaua‘i, there is an excellent chance of containing this outbreak and eradicating the disease," said Dr. James Foppoli, State Veterinarian with Department of Agriculture. A problem was noted in one of the 40 growing ponds used by Ceatech in the Kekaha area on April 1. Shrimp samples were then sent for testing to the Aquaculture Pathology Laboratory at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The positive test result was reported to the Ceatech on April 14 and the company reported the situation to the U. S. Department of Agriculture's Veterinary Services Office in Honolulu, which then notified State Veterinarian, Dr. Foppoli.

On Wednesday evening Foppoll and Department of Agriculture chairperson Sandra Lee Kunimoto issued the quarantine. A stipulation of the quarantine is that no shrimp may be moved off the plantation without the authorization of the State Veterinarian. Animal disease control veterinarians from the Honolulu office of the USDA and from the State Department of Agriculture delivered the quarantine notice to Ceatech on Thursday.

 The veterinarians also initiated a "Foreign Animal Disease" investigation as required by USDA protocol, which among other things, involves trying to determine the possible source of the infection and prevent the spread of the disease. Additional samples were taken for testing and work has begun with Ceatech on a clean-up plan, according to the report. The quarantine is expected to be in effect until tests confirm that the facility is free of the disease.

 Last summer the Oceanic Institute in Waimanalo, O‘ahu provided a new line of Pacific white shrimp broodstock for testing to Ceatech. A report provided to The Garden Island said the shrimp were provided for on-farm growth evaluation trials. Ceatech's innovative farming system produces very high yields of distinctively high-quality table shrimp that are marketed in Hawai‘i and the U.S. Mainland under the trade name "Kauai Shrimp." The shrimp farm is in part located on former Kekaha Sugar lands that are leased from the State of Hawai‘i.

 Ceatech has offices in Honolulu where most business functions of the operation are undertaken. Studies show that the Mana Plain area where the Kekaha ponds are located are one of the preferred areas for shrimp aquaculture in Hawai‘i, due to abundant sunshine, isolation from urban areas, hot temperatures and the Westside's dry climate, according to a report found on Ceatech's Web site.

 .

Peak Oil trumps Fascism

SUBHEAD: Put your "political" energy into building local economies and family-neighborhood tribes.

By Jan Lundberg on 1 April 2010 in Culture Change
(http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=635&Itemid=1)


Image above: WWII poster "When You Ride Alone, You Ride With Hitler". From (http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2716)
 
The direction of the U.S. has been questioned, analyzed, feared and condemned with increasing intensity since the 1960s. Things got a little quiet and complacent in the 1980s, as cheaper oil and no major war enabled the U.S. to get on with the business of making money at the expense of the poor and Mother Nature. Income disparity and official cruelty were not outrageous enough for open revolt. Cheerleaders exercised their right to support the status quo or press for more corporate supremacy. But all the while, critical observers have anticipated or foreseen the rise of U.S. police-state totalitarianism, invasion of privacy, further erosion of freedoms, the growth of the Pentagon, and globalism.

Many of these critical observers also realized that the environment, and later the climate, was deteriorating at an accelerated rate. But only some of them were looking at specific resources' limits, such as oil's completely giving out one day in our lifetimes. Now the Post-Peak Oil age is staring us in the face, with the Great Recession signaling the end of bubble prosperity. There is no consensus on how things will play out -- whether a Depression, total collapse or prosperous green technotopia -- or when.

However, many of us know that the end of cheap, abundant oil means a new chapter of history is opening up now or very soon. More and more authorities are acknowledging an imminent peak in oil extraction or a major oil-supply crunch. The "optimistic" and contrary view out of Exxon is becoming marginalized. Since "peak oilists" understand that the new chapter has begun, and we can visualize energy scarcity causing radical change in lifestyle and social structure, isn't it time to place the traditional left-right view of politics and conventional economic theory aside?

Today's political conflict is dominated by those who see a constant or growing pie to fight over or redistribute. Their worldview will be swept aside when everyone from neo-Nazis to peaceniks have their cars permanently idled, without fuel, and have to dig up lawns and de-pave driveways to desperately grow food.

EnergyBulletin.net is a Peak Oil website with a lot of new articles daily on related matters such as gardening, farming, climate change, and psychological aspects of economic collapse. Occasionally there are articles on politics, but they have something to do with energy or U.S. consumerism. A recent article the website posted didn't seem to have anything to do with energy: "Is America ‘Yearning for Fascism’?" by Chris Hedges (writing originally in http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/is_america_yearning_for_fascism_20100329). That it was on a Peak Oil website says a lot about the power of the article, and says something about many peak oilists' views of the future.

The Shallow Focus on Federal Politics
Hedges is a strong critic of U.S. policies. How much he knows about Peak Oil and overpopulation isn't known to me, but his latest article ignores entirely the possibility of petrocollapse or a new, very different future due to the end of abundant oil and energy. Like most commentators, Hedges focuses on politics and political trends. He happens to be passionate about ending war and for protecting "democracy" (an idealized notion or myth). It also happens that many people concerned with Peak Oil are quite concerned about his issues as well -- so much so that ideas or fears on politics and social (in)justice sometimes color peak oilists' energy outlooks.

As is the case with most citizens, Hedges does not see much change soon in our daily way of life as consumers, if at all. His big concern is change for the worse politically: in terms of fascist thugs breaking down your door. Or, almost as horrible to liberals and progressives, another Republican President gets in. After all, this might mean war on Middle Eastern countries, expanded offshore drilling, reviving nuclear power -- oh, wait, Obama and the Democrats are doing all that now, with no intention of changing direction. The Democrats might think this buys them some points with the Right, but it doesn't -- revealing that today's raging political differences are mostly about power. After all, the main gripes against the new health care law seemed to be stretched or manufactured.

The unemployed, the uninsured and the oppressed minorities are probably only going to rise up in hunger, when collapse really hits, rather than at the urgings of political demagogues. After all, there's no mass revolutionary fervor when the entrenched idea of working one's life away for others, to buy more personal stuff, is the modern form of freedom.

Oil reality trumps political trends
Hedges quotes the independent minded ex-Democrat of Congress Cynthia McKinney who blames "the people who put us in this predicament” and laments “Our problem is a problem of governance." She refers to the nation's political challenges and right-wing trends, and not the looming utter loss of abundant, cheap energy. If she and Hedges believe that strife between left and right is going to be a big deal up ahead -- and this may well be true -- just wait until the trucks don't pull in to the supermarkets because of a massive oil shortage. It will be triggered perhaps by a revolution in Saudi Arabia, an Israeli attack on Iran, or other geopolitical event. But the biggest pressure on the whole situation is the fact that global oil supply has peaked. Peak Oil (along with the related crisis of climate distortion) is bigger than fascism or any other social movement. What about wars, for example over water?

It is often pointed out that dwindling fresh, clean water will be the biggest resource crisis, causing more fighting than oil will. Events may appear to play out that way, but the water crisis is inseparable from the issue of petroleum because of:
  1. how water is pumped (often with petroleum energy) and 
  2. how water is consumed in relation to petroleum applications. And 
  3. the extra mouths drinking water today were fed and brought about by fast-growing petroleum-centered agriculture and food distribution.
The amount of crude oil estimated to remain in the ground, "reserves," is commonly assumed to be available for the market, as if nothing can disrupt it; rising cost and diminished net energy return are thought to be the only constraints. Collapse as a governing factor is ignored, ironically and optimistically, by many peak oilists.

The quantity of remaining diminished reserves is thought to entirely determine the timing of post-peak decline and resultant socioeconomic impacts. This view is bolstered by what peak oilists see as no alternative forms of energy coming to the rescue. This is a reasonable position, but what most peak oilists and renewable energy advocates don't seem to grasp is that the oil market's extreme reaction to an inevitable, sudden shortage of 10% or more will be the whole driver of collapse. The unprecedented, destructive socioeconomic spasm -- 1970s oil crises on steroids -- will allow no recovery, notably a hoped-for intact oil-industry capability to bring less and less product to the market -- following the famous Hubbert bell curve in such a way to allow the perpetuation of industrial nationalist power.

Fears of fascism have some validity but seem to omit the understanding that the U.S. -- like any corporate state now or in Europe in the 1930s and '40s -- is already a fascist society, when it fits the definition by Mussolini: "corporatism." The U.S. citizenry has been treated to a domestic version for many decades: "friendly fascism," whereby our pluralism and tolerance (not great, but real) have allowed us to say we are not like those brutal Axis nations of World War II. The several million civilians killed around the world by U.S. militarism since World War II might disagree, but U.S. citizens aren't much aware of other people's problems "over there."

As we cannot control collapse that must stem largely from the loss of cheap, abundant energy -- a process already begun -- it is time to put our "political" energy into building local economies and forming our family-neighborhood tribes for the tough future and eventual sustainable culture ahead. This will help prepare everyone for the post-peak oil dissolution of the U.S. as we know it -- no matter who next holds the White House or is kissing the ass of today's Wall Street elite.
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End of Peak Oil Denial

SUBHEAD: A deluge of information suggests that the energy elite are taking Peak Oil very seriously. Image above: A oil derrick at sunset to illustrate Peak Oil may have missed peak by over a decade. From (http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm) By Chris Nelder on 2 April 2010 in Energy and Capital - (http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/the-end-of-peak-oil-denial/1111)

When I began writing about Peak Oil professionally in 2006, it was generally considered a tinfoil hat theory. The notion that oil production might peak around 2012 (plus or minus) was only taken seriously by a few analysts who were considered extremely pessimistic.

Official forecasts had no cognizance of it whatsoever. All were confident that oil supply would continue to grow steadily to 130 million barrels per day (mbpd) and beyond, at prices that would be considered astoundingly cheap by today's standards. Oil companies rarely mentioned peak oil, and when they did, it was in a casually dismissive way.

But as time marched on, the cornucopian arguments fell one by one. My longtime readers have seen the story unfold, but for the benefit of new readers, here's a quick summary.

Forecasts grew increasingly pessimistic as it became apparent that regular conventional crude supply had peaked at the end of 2004. Even as the biggest oil price spike in history ensued from 2005-2008, crude production remained flat and unresponsive.

OPEC scaled back some of its development plans as costs soared. Non-OPEC production not only failed to deliver any actual increase, but began to decline. Forecasts were revised lower.

Corn ethanol boomed and busted, as it was revealed to be the net energy non-starter that serious analysts always knew it was. It also was suspected of adding pressure to food prices at a most inopportune time.

Unconventional production from oil shale and tar sands failed to grow as expected, as producers shied away from high-cost, low-production projects.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) finally included the depletion of mature fields in its analysis, and became increasingly shrill in its warnings about future supply.

A few current and former oil industry executives began making public statements about the diminishing prospects for new supply, and a few even acknowledged that it would be hard to increase production much beyond current levels.

Then high oil prices proved intolerable to an economy stretched thin by the bursting of the bubbles in the real estate and financial sectors.

Yet official recognition of the peak oil threat remained muted, couched in warnings about "adequate investment" and blithe assertions that demand would soon peak, averting any supply shortage.

All that seems to have changed in the last month. A sudden deluge of reports and summit meetings suggest that the oil industry and energy officials are now taking Peak Oil very seriously indeed.

UK Task Force on Peak Oil: Shortages by 2015

The first bombshell was actually dropped on February 10, when the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security issued a report called "The Oil Crunch: A wake-up call for the UK economy." I only mentioned it in passing at the time, but it was a stern warning that "oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political, and social activity potentially by 2015."

It only made the news because Sir Richard Branson personally endorsed it; but the fact that the task force comprised top UK executives and energy experts lent it enough weight to be rather widely circulated in the press.

The British government, including energy minister Lord Hunt, responded by staging a closed-door summit meeting with the taskforce on March 22. As the UK's Guardian reported, the government intended to develop an action plan to contend with a near-term peak, and to "calm rising fears over peak oil."

Veteran peak oil analyst and taskforce member Jeremy Leggett explained: "Government has gone from the BP position — '40 years of supply left, the price mechanism works, no need to worry' — to 'crikey'." He urged the assembly to properly assess the risks of peak oil, and to immediately begin preparing for the end of globalization and an era of oil shortages in the West.

According to reports from attendees, the summit yielded some important conclusions:

  • Peak oil is either here, or close enough.
  • Prices will have to go higher as demand outstrips supply.
  • Governments will be forced to intervene to maintain critical levels of oil supply, and limit volatility.
  • Rationing measures may be unavoidable.
  • Electrification of transport must be pursued in order to reduce demand.
  • Communities will need to work quickly to reorganize around walking instead of driving, producing food and energy locally instead of importing, and generally try to reduce their need for oil.

However, the notion that peak oil will mean the end of economic growth, as I have argued, apparently fell on deaf ears. Still, the very fact that the government has engaged with the peak oil community and formed a parliamentary group to study the issue offers a sliver of hope that, at least in the UK, we'll have some measure of consciousness about the issue and an idea of what to do about it as we drive off the peak oil cliff.

Kuwait Report: Peak by 2014

The next was a report that surfaced around March 12. Three authors from the College of Engineering and Petroleum at Kuwait University had applied advanced mathematics to reserve and production data for the top 47 oil producing countries using a multi-cycle Hubbert model, which demonstrated a much better fit to historical data than single-cycle Hubbert Curve analyses.

The model estimates the world's ultimate crude oil production at 2140 billion barrels, with 1161 billion barrels remaining to produce as of the end of 2005. It forecast that world production would peak in 2014 around 79 mbpd. The annual depletion rate of world reserves was estimated to be around 2.1%.

The results weren't really news to the peakists, for they matched up quite well with the models of Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrère, and other analysts who have warned about peak oil since 1995. What made this report interesting was that first, it was from Kuwait; and second, it brought a new level of mathematical rigor to the study.

The model indicated that non-OPEC production peaked in 2006 at 39.6 mbpd. It forecasts that OPEC production will peak in 2026 at 53 mbpd, up from 31 mbpd in 2005, with the majority of the increase coming from Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Then OPEC production is expected to decline to 29 mbpd by 2050.

Oxford Report: Reserves Exaggerated by One Third

On March 22, another bombshell exploded in the press as former UK chief scientist David King and researchers from Oxford University released a paper claiming that the world's oil reserves had been "exaggerated by up to a third," principally by OPEC.

Their "objective analysis" showed that conventional oil reserves stand at just 850-900 billion barrels — not the 1,150-1,350 billion barrels that are officially claimed by oil producers and accepted by the politically influenced IEA.

They anticipated that demand could outstrip supply by 2014-2015.

In a statement that sounded like a direct echo of what peak oil analysts like me have been saying for years, co-author Dr. Oliver Inderwildi remarked, "The belief that alternative fuels such as biofuels could mitigate oil supply shortages and eventually replace fossil fuels is a pie in the sky. Instead of relying on those silver bullet solutions, we have to make better use of the remaining resources by improving efficiency."

Again, it was hardly a revelation. I detailed the "political reserves" additions of OPEC producers in 2007, when I was writing Profit from the Peak. But the fact that it was recognized widely in the press was a marked change from the past.

The future of fuel will indeed be all about efficiency and alternative energy. This process — whether you've noticed or not — is well underway. Hundreds of billions will be made as a select group of companies slowly eradicate the rampant waste in our electricity distribution system, which has been estimated at upwards of 60% by analysts.

ConocoPhillips Gives Up on Growth

On March 25, ConocoPhillips CEO Jim Mulva admitted that pursuing new oil reserves just doesn't pay. The remaining resources have become too marginal and too expensive, and the competition for them has become too intense.

Rather than keep slugging it out with bigger and better-funded players in pursuit of growth, Conoco has decided to sell $10 billion worth of its assets over the next two years, all of them in the marginal category, and concentrate on producing its core assets.

The proceeds will be used to buy back its stock, reduce its debt, and raise dividends — just as rival ExxonMobil has been doing for the last five years or so.

When I inferred in Profit from the Peak that the oil majors were spending vastly more money on buying back stock than investing in new exploration because reserves were getting too expensive and risky, veterans of the Street greeted the idea with extreme skepticism.

Now it's a plain fact. A Rice University study released in July 2008 found that the five largest international oil companies spent about 55% of their profits on stock buybacks and dividends in 2007, but only about 6% on new exploration and production. "Could we spend $20 billion or $25 billion [on exploration]? Absolutely," Conoco spokesman Gary Russell said at the time. "Could we do it effectively, in a way that provides ultimate value to our shareholders? Probably not."

Those of us who have been observing the trend for years greeted the latest Conoco comments with little more than a shrug, but it did get the attention of the laggard mainstream press.

In my next Energy and Capital column two weeks from now, we'll see how the U.S. Department of Energy is now considering the possibility of a decline in world liquid fuels production by 2015, and pick up a few more clues from the International Energy Forum held this week.

What Works - Community

SUBHEAD: Our self-proclaimed independence is a bad joke made possible only by cheap energy. Image above: A bucket brigade made of voluntary workers in Yaxhatchen, Mexico. From (http://www.missionaryclinicbelize.org/usa/Merida07.htm) By Guy McPherson on 2 April 2010 in Nature Bats Last - (http://guymcpherson.com/2010/04/what-works-community)

As we continue into the decades-old, but only recently acknowledged era of destruction and extinction, it’s apparent the current model is not working. Truth has fallen and taken liberty with it. A vast majority of Americans are aware the industrial economy clings by the barest of threads but, too fearful of individual retribution to disrupt the industrial culture that is making us crazy and killing us, we hang tightly to the only system we’ve every known. Pathetically reluctant to consider what lies beyond the omnicidal industrial machine, we cling to a system that has failed to nurture the living planet, human individuals, or human communities.

At some point, we simply lost track of the importance of communities, human and otherwise. Along the way to becoming a nation of multitasking, Twittering, Facebook “friends” we abandoned the ability to connect meaningfully, viscerally, individually. If we are to thrive during the post-carbon era, we’ll need to create groups of straight-talking, look-’em-in-the-eye, mean-what-you-say, say-what-you-mean, self-reliant, individuals who are not afraid to ask for help from the neighbors and who, when asked, readily offer assistance.

I know you hate those stories that start with, “When I was a kid, ….” But here goes, regardless. I grew up in a tiny, backwoods, red-neck logging town. By the time I was 18 years old, I’d seen more bar fights than first-run movies. I knew that when a man was driving home after getting whipped in a bar fight, and the man who beat him up drove drunkenly into a ditch on the way home, the guy who got pummeled had no choice but to stop and give a hand to the guy who whipped him.

If the whippee didn’t stop to help, and anybody in town found out, he’d be better off driving to the next state than hanging around. Helping neighbors in need was not optional. The benighted community of my youth was a worthless pile of crap. But to me and my neighbors, it was our worthless pile of crap, and an outsider who threatened people in our town would have been better off bobbing for apples in a bucket of piranhas. The people who lived in that town, like the ones who still live there, are shoulder-to-the-wheel, down-to-earth folks who care about their community.

For a diametrically opposed perspective, see contemporary suburbia. Our self-proclaimed independence is a bad joke made possible only by cheap energy. As we leave cheap energy in our wake, it becomes increasingly clear the joke’s on us.

As Dmitry Orlov points out with his usual brilliant wit, communities arise organically. Despite the multi-million dollar efforts of countless scientists at Biosphere II, for example, the resulting collection of communities is a pale and pathetic imitation of the naturally occurring ecosystems they are designed to replicate. As with ecological communities, we know little about human communities and what makes them “work.” Nonetheless, we fill tomes about both kinds of communities. Along the way, a few people, including the always-thoughtful Dan Allen, think before they write. How refreshing is that?

Were I still a self-respecting, objective scientist reluctant to express an opinion or make a forecast, I’d stop with those two endorsements wrapped around a nod to ignorance. Actually, I would proceed to write a grant proposal explaining how I would overcome our collective ignorance for a few hundred grand and 50% overhead. Instead of taking either rational route, it’s onward, through the fog.

Although communities are self-organizing, we are able to nurture them and therefore influence species composition. We can plant trees and pull weeds. We can add water and compost. In fact, we do all these things, and we call the result a garden. As I’ve pointed out in prior posts, scale matters: I’m a huge fan of gardens, for reasons that run from healthy food to healthy psyches, but I detest farms. The former characterize Eden, the latter civilization.

As with ecological communities, I think we can and should nurture our human communities, recognizing and encouraging positive elements and weeding out negative ones. We may not be capable of building communities, but we can work with the ones we’ve got to the betterment of individuals who contribute to the common good. And, as with ecological communities, our ability to nurture human communities will vary. Every community is unique, and will require a unique set of approaches.

Too corny? Maybe. But I’m in the fine company of Plato, Aristotle, and Dan Allen, so I’ll run with it.

As I’ve indicated previously, as recently as my latest post, location is everything. Try nurturing community in the suburban wasteland filling most American cities, and you’ll run smack into the horrifically omnivorous maw of culture. If the most visible portion of every house is the garage, good luck organizing the neighbors into building community gardens fed by harvested rainwater and humanure. If it works in the short run, be sure to keep tabs on all the unprepared, self-indulgent free riders you’ll need to feed and water in the longer run.

I was, and am, quite concerned about my late arrival to the region surrounding the mud hut. As I’ve indicated before, I am quite fortunate to have found a like-minded couple of people who were willing to share their property. Financially, my wife and I could not have pulled this off ourselves. In addition, it would have been unwise from an interpersonal perspective. But our partners have lived in this area for nearly a decade, and they’ve worked hard during that time to develop strong relations with the neighbors. At some level, we’re the free riders I warned about in the previous paragraph. At another level, though, we came to the community with a strong endorsement and a built-in set of human ties.

Thus, my first recommendation: Community starts at home. If you can find somebody who is willing to take you in, I propose pooling resources. Given the increasing poverty in a nation addicted to the stock markets, this counter-cultural notion — which goes against the American cultural ideal of “independence” — is starting to make a lot of sense. I suspect we’ll see a lot more collaboration and a lot less ego-laden, look-at-me-and-my-mansion competition in the years ahead.

After establishing a home-based beachhead, the remainder involves common sense and little else. This ain’t rocket surgery, after all. Make yourself valuable by finding a niche. Provide a service, or set of services, integral to the daily lives of your neighbors. What do they do?

They drink water. So find a way to extract, purify, and deliver water when municipal power is no longer available.

They eat. So find a way to produce healthy food at a smaller scale than the big-box grocery store. Grow chickens, ducks, and goats. Make yogurt, butter, and cheese. And then develop a means of preparing the food without fossil fuels. Think drying racks, sun ovens, and firewood.

They wear clothes. So stock up on needles and strong thread, and sell your skills as a tailor, or even a mender.

They sleep. Make ’em blankets. Or, if you have the requisite skills, beds and other furniture.

Can you care for animals, including human animals? They have tender psyches and bodies that were not designed for the rigors to which they’re about to be subjected. They need therapy, just like the rest of us, and they’ll soon need a lot more. Can you provide it, at a finer scale than the current model, and for barter? Are you a medical herbalist? Can you become one?

They need respite from the drudgery of labor. Already, everything is amazing and nobody is happy. Imagine what our lives will be like when we can’t take our annual summer driving vacation, much less the once-in-a-lifetime trip to Europe or the Caribbean. Can you spin a yarn or play a tune? I recommend traveling minstrel as an occupation about to make a serious comeback.

They want educated people, and some of them want educated children. If you can write a coherent paragraph and perform long division, you’ll be in constant demand in a world without hand calculators. If you can teach children to perform these miracles, get set to launch your career as a post-carbon teacher.

They have sex. Never mind the world’s oldest profession: The potential for midwives and childcare should be obvious.

I could go on, but the point should be clear by now. As we leave the Age of Entitlement and transition into the Age of Consequences, everybody will need to make a contribution to their community. Those who are unwilling or unable to make a contribution will not be welcome. If you value living in a particular place, think about tight-knit Stone Age communities or contemporary Amish communities. The worst possible fate for an individual is to be shunned, because that means you’ll need to find your own way in a large, unknown world.

So, what about me, and my adopted community? What specific steps have I taken, along with my partners at this property?

We barter, and we’re ratcheting up the barter at every opportunity. These efforts are welcome in a valley filled with self-reliant, life-loving economic doomers. We provide plenty of eggs (chicken and duck) and milk, and in return we have received various kinds of food (fruits, vegetables, and the most wondrous imaginable bread), heirloom seeds and bulbs, a large iron triangle for announcing dinner is ready at the outdoor kitchen, a full clean-and-trim job on our goats’ hooves, and other goods and services too numerous to list (and, in my case, too varied and numerous to remember).

On the personal front, I am working hard to befriend members of my community. I’ve joined an effort to reintroduce river otters into the nearby river, and worked shoulder-to-shoulder on constructing government-mandated otter pods for their release (the pods are large boxes built from plywood and construction lumber). I join a gang of locals at the nearest café for coffee every Tuesday morning (and I don’t drink coffee). I substitute teach at the local K-12 school (“today we’re learning about entropy”). I partake of potlucks and dance parties, as well as more formal annual events such as craft fairs. I’m extremely introverted, so each of these social gatherings is painful. As Nietzsche pointed out, what doesn’t kill me makes me stronger. Perhaps it’ll make my community stronger, too.

In the not-so-distant future, we intend to provide a much broader array of services to our community. We can extract water from the ground via solar pump and hand pump. In addition to the daily overload of eggs and milk, we’re making and aging plenty of hard cheeses. We’ve stored some luxurious food and drink that will age well (and I don’t even drink alcohol). We can grind grains. We have the capacity to cook food via sun oven, Earth oven (orno), and wood-fired cook stove. We have solar-powered electricity and an assortment of power tools to aid with minor construction projects. This entire infrastructure is designed not merely for our survival, but also for the survival of others in our community. We thrive when our community thrives. We suffer when our community suffers.

I’m certain I’m missing many things. But any number can play, so please help me out. What can we stock for barter? What’s small, inexpensive, and easy to store, yet useful? What other skills should we learn in anticipation of a contracting economy and therefore an enlarging world? What other services can we provide, within the constraints of a small piece of land and little remaining money?

And what about you? How are you preparing for a life of service in the Age of Consequences?

See also: Ea O Ka Aina: What Works - Water 3/29/10 Ea O Ka Aina: What Works - Food 3/29/10

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Collapse Competitively

SUBHEAD: The idea of competition itself that should be offered up as a nice, sizzling-fat burnt offering on the altar of our common sense. Image above: A GMAC team races to destruction. From (http://intellectualize.org/auto/page/61/) By Dmitry Orlov on 2 April 2010 in ClubOrlov - (http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2010/04/collapse-competitively.html) We are heading toward economic, political and social collapse, and every day that passes brings it closer. But we just don't know when to stop, do we? Which part of "the harder we try, the harder we fail" can't we understand? Why can't we understand that each additional dollar of debt will drive us into national bankruptcy faster, harder and deeper? Why can't we grasp the concept that each additional dollar of military spending further undermines our security? Is there some sort of cognitive impairment that prevents us from understanding that each additional dollar sunk into the medical industry will only make us sicker? Why can't we see that each incremental child we bear into this untenable situation will make life harder for all children? In short, what on earth is our problem? Why can't we stop? We can blame evolution, which has produced in us instincts that compel us to gorge ourselves when food is abundant, to build up fat reserves for the lean months. These instincts are not helpful to us when there is an all-you-can-eat buffet nearby that's open year-round. These instincts are not even specifically ours: other animals don't know when to stop either. Butterflies will feast on fermented fruit until they are too drunk to fly. Pigs will eat acorns until they are too fat to stand up and have to resort to crawling about on their bellies in order to, yes of course, eat more acorns. Americans who are too fat to walk are considered disabled and the government issues them with little motorized scooters so that they don't have to suffer the indignity of crawling to the all-you-can-eat buffet on their bellies. This is considered progress. Or we can blame our education, which puts mathematical reasoning ahead of our common sense. Mathematics uses induction—the idea that if 1 + 1 is 2 then 2 + 1 must be 3, and so on up to an arbitrarily large quantity. In the real world, if you are counting acorns, then 1 + 1 acorns is not the same as 1,000,000 + 1 acorns—not if there are squirrels running around, which there will be once they find out that you are the one who's been stealing their acorns. A million acorns is just too many for you to keep track of, and your concerted effort to keep adding one more to the pile while fighting off squirrels may cause small children to start calling you silly names. The bigger the pile grows, the more likely you are to have to take inventory, and in the process you are increasingly likely to make a mistake, so that it turns out that 1,000,000 + 1 is in fact 1,000,001 - δ, where δ is the number of acorns you have lost track of, somehow. Once δ > 0, you have achieved diminishing returns, and once δ > 1, you have achieved negative returns. In the real world, the bigger you think a number should be, the smaller it actually turns out to be. At some point, trying to add one more to the pile becomes a particularly wasteful way of making the pile smaller. This result is not intellectually pleasing, and there is no theory to back it up, but it is observable anywhere you care to look. The fact that we are unable to adequately explain any given phenomenon by using our feeble primate brains does not make it any less real. The concept of diminishing returns is quite simple for most people to understand and to observe, but notoriously difficult to detect for the person who is at the point of achieving them. The point of negative returns is even harder to detect, because by that point we tend to be too far gone to detect much of anything. If you already had N drinks, can you tell if you are at the point of diminishing returns yet? Will another drink make you happier and more sociable, or will it not make much of a difference? Or will it cause you to embarrass yourself and spend the next day nursing a debilitating hangover? Or will it send you to the emergency room to be treated for vomit inhalation? As a general rule, the more you imbibe, the more difficult it becomes for you to draw such fine distinctions. This rule does not seem to be limited to drinking, but applies to almost all behaviors that produce a feeling of euphoria rather than the simple satisfaction of needs. Most of us can stop ourselves from drinking too much water, or eating too much porridge, or stacking too many bales of hay. Where we do tend to run into trouble with self-control is when it comes to things that are particularly pleasurable or addictive, such as drugs, tobacco, alcohol, and rich and delicious food. And we tend to lose it completely when it comes to euphoria-inducing social semi-intangibles: satisfaction of greed, status-seeking, and power over others. Is this the best we can do? Certainly not! Human culture is full of examples where people stood up and successfully opposed such primitive tendencies within themselves. The ancient Greeks made a virtue of moderation: the temple of Apollo at Delphi bore the inscription:
MHΔEN AΓAN—"Nothing in excess."
Taoist philosophy focuses on the idea of balance between yin and yang (阴 阳)—seemingly contrary natural forces that in fact work together and must be kept in balance. Even in contemporary engineering culture one sometimes hears the motto:
"Better is the enemy of good enough."
Sadly, though, engineers who are good enough to abide by it are something of a rarity. At the micro level of solving specific problems most engineers do strive to achieve the clever optimum rather then the stupid maximum, but at the macro level the surrounding business culture forces them to always go for the stupid maximum (maximum growth, revenue and profits) or the stupid minimum (minimum cost, product cycle time and maintainability). They are forced to do so by the influence of a truly pernicious concept that has insinuated itself into most aspects of our culture: the concept of competition. The concept of competition seems to have first been elevated to cult status by games that were played as a form of sacrifice before gods, in cultures as different as ancient Greece and the Mayan civilization, where competitive events were held to please their various deities. I much prefer the Olympic version, where the object of the games was to express the ideal of human perfection in both form and function, rather than the Mayan version, where the outcome of the game was used to decide who would be sacrificed on the altar of some peculiar cultural archetype, but being open-minded I am ready to accept either as valid, because both are competitions in defense of principle. It was Aristotle who pointed out that pursuit of principle is the one area where moderation is not helpful, and who am I to refute Aristotle? But when moving from defending an ideal or a principle to performing mundane, practical, utilitarian functions it is the idea of competition itself that should be offered up as a nice, sizzling-fat burnt offering on the altar of our common sense. If the goal is to achieve an adequate result with a minimum of effort, then why would two people want to compete to do the job of one? And if there is in fact work enough for two, then why wouldn't they want to cooperate instead of wasting their precious energies in competition? Well, they may have been brainwashed into thinking that they must compete in order to succeed, but that's beside the point. The point is that there is a major difference between competing for the sake of a principle—such as the perfection of divine creation—and competing for mere money. There is nothing divine about a big pile of money, and, just as with a big pile of acorns, the bigger the pile, the more "squirrels" it tends to attract. In fact, those who are sitting on some of the bigger piles of acorns often seem rather squirrely themselves. To mix metaphors, they also tend to be chicken-like, roosting on their acorns and expecting them to hatch into more acorns. But be they squirrels or be they chickens, or be they drug-addled mutant chicken-squirrels on steroids, they are certainly not gods, and their acorns are not worthy of our sacrifice. Once we dispense with the idea that competition is in any sense necessary, or even desirable, new avenues of thought open up. How much is enough? Probably much less than we have now. How hard do we need to work for it? Probably a lot less hard than we are working now. What happens if we don't have enough? Well, perhaps then it's time to try working just a tiny bit harder, or, better yet, perhaps it is time to take a few acorns from those who still have too many. Since having too much is such hard work (mind the damn squirrels!) we'd only be helping them. We certainly don't want to keep up with them, because we know where they are headed—a quaint, exclusive little place called collapse. What we should probably be trying to do instead is to establish some sort of balance, where enough is, in fact, enough. .

Drilling for Offshore Oil

SUBHEAD: Opening up the East Coast for drilling - Is Obama crazy? Image above: Still from animation on operational safety showing the lifting component onto new offshore drilling platform. From (http://www.looking-glass-animations.co.uk/42_rig_lifting_operations.htm) By Aaron Newton on 31 March 2010 in Powering Down - (http://poweringdown.blogspot.com/2010/03/drilling-for-offshore-oil-obama-plan.html)

What follows is something I posted in September of 2008. The US presidential campaign was building up steam and I was sick and tired of hearing 'Drill Baby Drill.' It made me ill because of the stupidity of the entire argument. I wrote,
Even when production is pumping at full capacity, additional offshore drilling facilities would amount to about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd). The US currently uses 21 million bpd. This does not take into account the increase in oil consumption necessary to continue to grow our economy[during the time it would take to get the drills up and drilling]. The bottom line is that additional offshore drilling will provide 1.2% of the oil we use every day if we don't increase consumption and we're willing to wait 20 years.
So now Obama has opened up most of the east coast among other areas for oil exploration. The Democrats are pretending to have been betrayed, the Republicans are saying he didn't go far enough and the environmentalists are mad as hell. The truth is that this was a beautiful political move. President Obama gave his Democratic base ammunition for the upcoming election and took steps towards soothing the sting of those opposed to "health care" reform on the right. Sure there are factions within the Democratic party who are oppose to more offshore drilling but fewer than five Democrats will actually vote against their Democratic candidates this November because the President opened up more offshore areas for oil exploration. Instead those candidates will be able to say, "Look, we're trying to become more energy independent by opening up areas previously off limits and the Republicans aren't going along with us. We're willing to try what the Republicans have been asking us for years." I'm not sure if those political bullets will hit their targets but hey, it's something. The real genius of this move lies in the fact that the Republicans have been saying for ever and ever that we could solve this energy problem if those wacky environmentally conservative Democrats would just open up more offshore areas for drilling. It's total bullshit of course, as you'll read below but they've gotten away with it because average Americans don't know the facts. Obama has now taken that sound bite away from them. And as an added bonus if the Republicans do speak out against this they will be branded even more deeply as the Party of No. I'm guessing the environmentalists who are upset about this don't understand the facts. Little if any of the oil in these new areas will ever be pumped out of the seafloor. It's too costly. We won't be able to afford it. There is no real threat to the environment here because it's highly unlikely that any substantial new drilling in these areas will ever take place. This is political theater, nothing more. Grab a bag of popcorn and be amused. Original post from September 2008...
I won't go so far as to say I'm against lifting the ban on drilling for oil off the east coast of the United States of America. I say that because the only reason the idea is being bandied about is that the last two Republican presidents were oil tycoons and that the party is desperate to reframe the rise in the price of gasoline as the fault of the Democrats. Perhaps Democrats should agree to lift the ban and when the price of gas doesn't go down, Republicans will be left without that political punch to throw.
Having said that, I am not in favor of lifting the offshore drilling ban because drilling for oil off the east coast of the U.S. is stupid. Here's why. The USGS says there are 17.8 billion barrels of undiscovered recoverable resources (read Unproven Reserves) in waters currently off limits to exploration. The EIA says production couldn't really get started until 2017 and wouldn't be fully ramped up for another 15 years until about 2030. Remember the U.S. uses more than 7 billion barrels a year. Great, there might be two and a half more years worth of oil. Even if we could start pumping at full capacity today when my daughter is 2 ½, she'll be 5 when all that oil is used up.

Even when production is pumping at full capacity, additional offshore drilling facilities would amount to about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd). The US currently uses 21 million bpd. This does not take into account the increase in oil consumption necessary to continue to grow our economy. The bottom line is that additional offshore drilling will provide 1.2% of the oil we use every day if we don't increase consumption and we're willing to wait 20 years.

Oh and if the oil companies don't sell that oil to other countries. Remember, we currently export about 1.5 million barrels of oil from the US every day. There is no guarantee that big oil will even keep this measly 200,000 bpd in the US.

And don't forget the hurricanes.

Notice I didn't even mention the possible environmental catastrophes or the hit tourism might take if lounging at the beach starts to include a beautiful view of the flare from a drilling rig.

Offshore oil is politicians playing the blame game and that's all it is. The sad part is that a majority of Americans are falling for it while their leaders, Republicans and Democrats alike, continue to refuse to act appropriately.

If you want a quick test of whether or not a politician understands energy issues ask her if she'd like to see the cost of gasoline go down. If she says yes, she doesn't know what the hell she's talking about.


Offshore Drilling? - Is Obama Crazy? By George Mobus on 31 March 2010 in Question Everything - (http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2010/03/opening-up-the-east-coast-for-drilling-is-obama-crazy.html)

Not in the least! But he is in panic mode.

There are smart people in the administration. OK, maybe not many wise (sapient) people, but definitely clever people. They know about Peak Oil. They know that it is here. They know the standard neoclassical economics explanation of what happens when supply doesn't meet demand. They know the price of fossil fuels go up. They know that prices have been going up. I'll even bet that they have read the scientific papers about Peak Oil! We know the military has been studying the issue for quite a while. They have even published their concerns.

So if you were President of the United States and your staff is telling you we are running out of oil and that the whole system is going to come apart at the seams as a result, what would you do?

The president knows that energy is critical to the whole economy. He knows that energy flow has to increase in order to have a 'growing' economy. He knows that the American people are spoiled beyond belief. He knows that they will rebel against any message that suggests that they need to pay more for energy or that they will have to restrict their lifestyles in light of new energy realities. And he knows that the our access to oil is being pinched off by production capacity and geopolitical and international economic forces beyond his control. He knows that the financial markets are keeping the illusion of wealth production alive and has to be supported to keep the illusion alive.

And he knows that the situation is hopeless.

That is why he is opening up oil drilling off Virginia and will likely open other areas for oil companies to lease and explore. He now understands the Drill-Baby-Drill message. He has no other choice. He is in panic because he is a political animal, just like all the rest. He wants to hold power and he wants his party to hold power in spite of the fact that it is rapidly becoming obvious that it is a no-win proposition.

This is why I doubted our new president's wisdom during the campaign and why I am now convinced that he is really clever but definitely not wise.

I can't help but wonder how he is going to handle the longer-term problem that is mounting. This is like a game of chess where you have lost most of your power pieces while your opponent maintains a knight, bishop (one that hasn't been accused of child molestation we hope), and maybe a castle. You have to take every escape move you can. Your queen is in constant jeopardy.

Now you hope your early move to castle your king pays off. But it won't. This is where our president's foresight fails. His panic move is just as bad as believing his chosen financial advisers about how to save the economy and the bailouts of banks and Wall Street. He will fail (are you listening Rush Limbaugh? You will get your wish. But it will get you too.)

I vacillate between hope for truly sapient people to prepare for the worst case scenario, and despair for what is going to happen to the vast majority of people who actually attend to leaders like Obama (or John Boehner or Glen Beck!). The former stand a chance of a future life. The latter are lost. I would prefer to focus on the potential for the former, but am constantly pulled back to think about the latter. This desperate move by Obama is just one more example of why the latter case is going to prevail. He understands the nature of the problem but completely misses the nature of anything like a solution. Sometimes I wonder if I have cast my last vote in a national election!

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