Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts

Buy on the Dip?

SUBHEAD: What might happen to the USA if the SNAP card refills and Social Security checks stopped coming.

By James Kunstler on 17 April 2107 for Kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/buy-the-dip/)


Image above: Illustration ofa  gold backed Chinese twenty "dollar" bill that could replace the US dollar in international trade. From (http://www.thedailyeconomist.com/2017/03/russia-may-soon-take-new-swift-type.html).

The military frolics of spring have distracted the nation’s attention from the economic and financial dynamics that pose the ultimate mortal threat to business as usual.

Note the distinction between economic and financial.

The first represents real activity in this Land of the Deal: people doing and making.

The second, finance, used to be a minor branch — only about five percent — of all the doing in the days of America’s putative bigliest greatitude.

The task of finance then was limited and straightforward: to manage the allocation of capital for more doing and making. The profit in that enabled bankers to drive Cadillacs instead of Chevrolets, but not much more.

These days, finance is closer to 40 percent of all the doing in America, and it is not about making anything, but getting more than its share of “money” — whatever that is now — and what “money” mostly is is whatever the people engaged in finance say it is, for instance, Fannie Mae bonds representing millions of sketchy loans for houses of vinyl and strand-board built in places with no future… or stock issued by the Tesla corporation… or the sovereign IOUs of the US Treasury.

The list of things that pretend to be “money” these days would be long and shocking and the sheer churn of these instruments among the banks and markets “produces” the fabled “revenue streams” beloved of The Wall Street Journal.

What happens when the world discovers that these instruments (securities and their derivatives) represent falsely? Why, bigly trouble.

And this is the season we’re moving into as the dogwoods blaze: the season of the re-discovery of actual value.

For those of you gloating over last week’s demonstrations of US Big Stick-ism, be warned that our military shenanigans have given China and Russia every reason to discipline this country by undermining the international standing of the dollar.

They’ve been preparing for this very deliberately for years: constructing an alternative to the US-sponsored SWIFT international payment system, stockpiling thousands of tons of gold, building trade partnerships to circumvent US dominated syndicates.

Before the month of April is out, they’ll “pull the trigger” on new voting arrangements in the International Monetary Fund that will reduce the financial power of the US and the Eurozone, especially in the oil trade.

Around the same moment, America will wake up to the awful reality of the debt ceiling. This petard has been ticking the whole time that the political bureaucracy of Washington has wasted its mojo on the quixotic crusade to blame Russia for the 2016 election outcome.

Congress will return from the Easter recess to discover that they have a few mere days to debate and resolve the debt ceiling problem — that is, to raise it so the country can borrow more “money” — or else they’ll be faced with a shut-down of government operations, including their own generous emoluments.

It’s a good thing (for them) that they have plenty of walking-around money from the mysterious perqs of government service, but the rest of America doesn’t have $500 to pay for a new set of tires or the extraction of an abscessed molar.

Some readers may have long wondered what might happen in this country if the SNAP card refills and social security checks stopped coming. Perhaps we’re about to find out. Congress might find itself in a painfully tight spot.

The Democrats would like nothing better than to let this drag on for a while in order to humiliate, and perhaps finish off, their arch-nemesis, the Golden Golem of Greatness.

Many Republicans have a religious-strength ideological aversion to increasing the already appalling US debt load. The prospects are not bright for a quick-and-easy resolution to this quandary.

The IMF voting re-set and the debt ceiling quagmire have the power to disrupt many of the arrangements that allow the banks and markets to continue pretending that their stuff has value.

When that consensus trance snaps, President Trump may find himself in the unhappy position of having to declare a bank holiday.

Unlike the usual holidays in America, there will no Easter Bunny, no Jack-o-lanterns, no Santa Claus.
Just empty supermarket shelves and pissed-off people marshaling in the WalMart parking lots with flaming brands and espontoons.

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Too little Growth to grow

SUBHEAD: “Real GDP growth fell and leveled off in the mid-1970s, then started falling again in the mid-2000s”.

By Raul Ilargi Meijer on 18 February 2017 for the Automatic Earth -
(https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/02/not-nearly-enough-growth-to-keep-growing/)


Image above: Mashup of canoe paddling team dragging a water skier. No matter how hard they paddle it is too little energy to get the job done, or not enough ERoEI. Mashup by Juan Wilson.

It’s amusing to see how views start to converge, at the same time that it’s tiresome to see how long that takes. It’s a good thing that more and more people ‘discover’ how and why austerity, especially in Europe, is such a losing and damaging strategy. It’s just a shame that this happens only after the horses have left the barn and the cows have come home, been fed, bathed, put on lipstick and gone back out to pasture again. Along the same lines, it’s beneficial that the recognition that for a long time economic growth has not been what ‘we’ think it should be, is spreading.

But we lost so much time that we could have used to adapt to the consequences. The stronger parties in all this, the governments, companies, richer individuals, may be wrong, but they have no reason to correct their wrongs: the system appears to work fine for them. They actually make good money because all corrections, all policies and all efforts to hide the negative effects of the gross ‘mistakes’, honest or not, made in economic and political circles are geared towards making them ‘whole’.

The faith in the absurd notion of trickle down ‘economics’ allows them to siphon off future resources from the lower rungs of society, towards themselves in the present. It will take a while for the lower rungs to figure this out.

The St. Louis Fed laid it out so clearly this week that I wrote to Nicole saying ‘We’ve been vindicated by the Fed itself.’ That is, the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s.

Intriguing questions: was America at its richest right before or right after Nixon took the country off the gold standard in 1971? And whichever of the two one would argue for, why did he do it smack in the middle of peak wealth? Did he cause the downfall or was it already happening?

As per the St. Louis Fed report: “Real GDP growth fell and leveled off in the mid-1970s, then started falling again in the mid-2000s”.

What happened during that 30-year period was that we started printing and borrowing with abandon, making both those activities much easier while we did, until the debt load overwhelmed even our widest fantasies ten years ago. And we’ve never recovered from that, if that was not obvious yet. Nor will we.

As the first graph below shows, there was still growth post-Gold Standard but the rate of growth fell and then “leveled off”, only to fall more after, to a point where Real GDP per Capita is presently 0.5% or so -little more than a margin error-. How one would want to combine that with talk of an economic recovery is hard to see. In fact, such talk should be under serious scrutiny by now.

Still, the numbers remain positive, you say. Yes, that’s true. But there’s a caveat, roughly similar to the one regarding energy and the return on it. Where we used to pump oil and get 100 times the energy in return that we needed to pump it, that ratio (EROEI) is now down to 10:1 or less.

Alternative energy sources do little better, if at all. Whereas to run a complex society, let alone one like ours that must become more complex as we go along – or die-, we would need somewhere along the lines of a 20:1 to even 30:1 EROEI rate.

Another place where a similar caveat can be found is the amount of dollars it takes to produce a dollar of real growth. That amount has been increasing, and fast, to the point where it takes over $10 to create $1 or growth in the US and Europe, and China too moves towards such numbers.

Both our energy systems and our financial systems are examples of what happens when what we should perhaps call the rate of ‘productivity’ (rather than growth) falls below a critical mass: it becomes impossible to maintain, even keep alive, a society as complex as ours, which requires an increase in complexity to survive.

In other words: a Real GDP per Capita growth rate of 0.5% is not enough to stand still, just like oil EROEI of 5:1 is not; there is growth, but not -nearly- enough to keep growing.

One does not get the impression that the St. Louis Fed economists who wrote the report are aware of this -though the title is suggestive enough-, they seem to lean towards the eternal desire for a recovery, but they did write it nonetheless. Do note the sharp drop that coincides with the 1973 oil crisis. We never ‘recovered’.

The U.S. economy expanded by 1.6% in 2016, as measured by real GDP. Real GDP has averaged 2.1% growth per year since the end of the last recession, which is significantly smaller than the average over the postwar period (about 3% per year). These lower growth rates could in part be explained by a slowdown in productivity growth and a decline in factor utilization. However, demographic factors and attitudes toward the labor market may also have played significant roles.
Long-run growth rates were high until the mid-1970s. Then, they quickly declined and leveled off at around 3% per year for the following three decades. In the second half of the 2000s, around the last recession, growth contracted again sharply and has been declining ever since. The 10-year average growth rate as of the fourth quarter of 2016 was only 1.3% per year. Total output grows because the economy is more productive and capital is accumulated, but also because the population increases over time.
The same dynamics (or lack thereof) are reflected in a recent piece by Chris Hamilton, in which he argues that global growth -as expressed by growth in energy consumption- has largely been non-existent for years, other than in China. Moreover, China has added a stunning amount of debt to achieve that growth, and since its population growth is about to stagnate -and then turn negative-, this was pretty much all she wrote.

Since 2000, China has been the nearly singular force for growth in global energy consumption and economic activity. However, this article will make it plain and simple why China is exiting the spotlight and unfortunately, for global economic growth, there is no one else to take center stage.
China’s core population is essentially peaking this year and beginning a decades long decline (not unlike the world. The chart below shows total Chinese core population peaking, energy consumption stalling, and debt skyrocketing.
• China of 1985-2000 grew on population and demographic trends.
• China of 2000-2015 grew despite decelerating population growth but on accelerating debt growth…this growth in China kept global growth alive.
• China of 2015-2030 will not grow, will not drive the global economy and absent

Chinese growth…the world economy is set to begin an indefinite period of secular contraction. China ceased accumulating US Treasury debt as of July of 2011 and continues to sell while busy accumulating gold since 2011.

Unfortunately, neither quasi-democracies nor quasi-communist states have any politically acceptable solutions to this problem of structural decelerating growth and eventual outright contraction…but that won’t keep them from meddling to stall the inevitable global restructuring.
I can only hope that these data will convince more people that all the times I’ve said that growth is over, it was true. And perhaps even make them think about what follows from there: that when growth is gone, so is all centralization, including globalization, other than by force. This will change the world a lot, and unfortunately not always in peaceful ways.

What seems to have started (but was in the air long before) with Brexit and Trump, is merely a first indication of what’s to come.

People will not accept that important decisions that affect them directly are taken by anonymous ‘actors’ somewhere far away, unless this promises and delivers them very concrete and tangible benefits. In fact, many have lost all faith in the whole idea, and that’s why we have Trump and Brexit in the first place.

This turn inward -protectionism if you will-, in the UK, US and many other places, is an inevitable development that follows from declining growth and soaring debt. Entire societies will have to be re-built from the ground up, and people will want to do that themselves, not have it dictated by strangers.

At the same time, of course, those who profit most from centralization want that to continue. They can’t, but they will try, and hard.

Equally important, people who wish to try and save existing ‘central institutions’ for less selfish and more peaceful reasons should think twice, because they will fail too. It’s centralization itself that is failing, and the demise of the structures that represent it is but a consequence of that.

We will see local structures being built, and only after that possibly -and hopefully- connect to each other. This is a big change, and therefore a big challenge.

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The Hoard of the Nibelungs

SUBHEAD: Money is so central to current notions of economics that getting by without it is all but unthinkable.

By John Michael Greer on 12 November 2014 for the Archdruid Report -
(http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2014/11/dark-age-america-hoard-of-nibelungs.html)


Image above: Nibelung dwarf about to seize the gold of a Rhineland maid. An illustration by Arthur Rackham (in 1910) for an English translation of the lyrics "Rhine Gold", an opera composed by Richard Wagner based on old German folklore.  From (http://thegentlemanangler.com/historic-tales/rhine-gold-with-illustrations-by-arthur-rackham/1185/).

Of all the differences that separate the feudal economy sketched out in last week’s post from the market economy most of us inhabit today, the one that tends to throw people for a loop most effectively is the near-total absence of money in everyday medieval life.

Money is so central to current notions of economics that getting by without it is all but unthinkable these days. 

The fact—and of course it is a fact—that the vast majority of human societies, complex civilizations among them, have gotten by just fine without money of any kind barely registers in our collective imagination.

One source of this curious blindness, I’ve come to think, is the way that the logic of money is presented to students in school. Those of my readers who sat through an Economics 101 class will no doubt recall the sort of narrative that inevitably pops up in textbooks when this point is raised.

You have, let’s say, a pig farmer who has bad teeth, but the only dentist in the village is Jewish, so the pig farmer can’t simply swap pork chops and bacon for dental work.

Barter might be an option, but according to the usual textbook narrative, that would end up requiring some sort of complicated multiparty deal whereby the pig farmer gives pork to the carpenter, who builds a garage for the auto repairman, who fixes the hairdresser’s car, and eventually things get back around to the dentist.

Once money enters the picture, by contrast, the pig farmer sells bacon and pork chops to all and sundry, uses the proceeds to pay the dentist, and everyone’s happy. Right?

Well, maybe. Let’s stop right there for a moment, and take a look at the presuppositions hardwired into this little story. First of all, the narrative assumes that participants have a single rigidly defined economic role: the pig farmer can only raise pigs, the dentist can only fix teeth, and so on.

Furthermore, it assumes that participants can’t anticipate needs and adapt to them: even though he knows the only dentist in town is Jewish, the pig farmer can’t do the logical thing and start raising lambs for Passover on the side, or what have you.

Finally, the narrative assumes that participants can only interact economically through market exchanges: there are no other options for meeting needs for goods and services, no other way to arrange exchanges between people other than market transactions driven by the law of supply and demand.

Even in modern industrial societies, these three presuppositions are rarely true. I happen to know several pig farmers, for example, and none of them are so hyperspecialized that their contributions to economic exchanges are limited to pork products; garden truck, fresh eggs, venison, moonshine, and a good many other things could come into the equation as well.

For that matter, outside the bizarre feedlot landscape of industrial agriculture, mixed farms raising a variety of crops and livestock are far more resilient than single-crop farms, and thus considerably more common in societies that haven’t shoved every economic activity into the procrustean bed of the money economy.

As for the second point raised above, the law of supply and demand works just as effectively in a barter economy as in a money economy, and successful participants are always on the lookout for a good or service that’s in short supply relative to potential demand, and so can be bartered with advantage.

It’s no accident that traditional village economies tend to be exquisitely adapted to produce exactly that mix of goods and services the inhabitants of the village need and want.

Finally, of course, there are many ways of handling the production and distribution of goods and services without engaging in market exchanges.

The household economy, in which members of each household produce goods and services that they themselves consume, is the foundation of economic activity in most human societies, and still accounted for the majority of economic value produced in the United States until not much more than a century ago.

The gift economy, in which members of a community give their excess production to other members of the same community in the expectation that the gift will be reciprocated, is immensely common; so is the feudal economy delineated in last week’s post, with its systematic exclusion of market forces from the economic sphere. There are others, plenty of them, and none of them require money at all.

Thus the logic behind money pretty clearly isn’t what the textbook story claims it is. That doesn’t mean that there’s no logic to it at all; what it means is that nobody wants to talk about what it is that money is actually meant to do.

Fortunately, we’ve discussed the relevant issues in last week’s post, so I can sum up the matter here in a single sentence: the point of money is that it makes intermediation easy.

Intermediation, for those of my readers who weren’t paying attention last week, is the process by which other people insert themselves between the producer and the consumer of any good or service, and take a cut of the proceeds of the transaction.

That’s very easy to do in a money economy, because—as we all know from personal experience—the intermediaries can simply charge fees for whatever service they claim to provide, and then cash in those fees for whatever goods and services they happen to want.

Imagine, by way of contrast, the predicament of an intermediary who wanted to insert himself into, and take a cut out of, a money-free transaction between the pig farmer and the dentist.

We’ll suppose that the arrangement the two of them have worked out is that the pig farmer raises enough lambs each year that all the Jewish families in town can have a proper Passover seder, the dentist takes care of the dental needs of the pig farmer and his family, and the other families in the Jewish community work things out with the dentist in exchange for their lambs—a type of arrangement, half barter and half gift economy, that’s tolerably common in close-knit communities.

Intermediation works by taking a cut from each transaction. The cut may be described as a tax, a fee, an interest payment, a service charge, or what have you, but it amounts to the same thing: whenever money changes hands, part of it gets siphoned off for the benefit of the intermediaries involved in the transaction. The same thing can be done in some money-free transactions, but not all.

Our intermediary might be able to demand a certain amount of meat from each Passover lamb, or require the pig farmer to raise one lamb for the intermediary per six lambs raised for the local Jewish families, though this assumes that he either likes lamb chops or can swap the lamb to someone else for something he wants.

What on earth, though, is he going to do to take a cut from the dentist’s side of the transaction?  

 There wouldn’t be much point in demanding one tooth out of every six the dentist extracts, for example, and requiring the dentist to fill one of the intermediary’s teeth for every twenty other teeth he fills would be awkward at best—what if the intermediary doesn’t happen to need any teeth filled this year?

What’s more, once intermediation is reduced to such crassly physical terms, it’s hard to pretend that it’s anything but a parasitic relationship that benefits the intermediary at everyone else’s expense.

What makes intermediation seem to make sense in a money economy is that money is the primary intermediation. Money is a system of arbitrary tokens used to facilitate exchange, but it’s also a good deal more than that. It’s the framework of laws, institutions, and power relationships that creates the tokens, defines their official value, and mandates that they be used for certain classes of economic exchange.

Once the use of money is required for any purpose, the people who control the framework—whether those people are government officials, bankers, or what have you—get to decide the terms on which everyone else gets access to money, which amounts to effective control over everyone else. That is to say, they become the primary intermediaries, and every other intermediation depends on them and the money system they control.

This is why, to cite only one example, British colonial administrators in Africa imposed a house tax on the native population, even though the cost of administering and collecting the tax was more than the revenue the tax brought in.

By requiring the tax to be paid in money rather than in kind, the colonial government forced the natives to participate in the money economy, on terms that were of course set by the colonial administration and British business interests.

The money economy is the basis on which nearly all other forms of intermediation rest, and forcing the native peoples to work for money instead of allowing them to meet their economic needs in some less easily exploited fashion was an essential part of the mechanism that pumped wealth out of the colonies for Britain’s benefit.

Watch the way that the money economy has insinuated itself into every dimension of modern life in an industrial society and you’ve got a ringside seat from which to observe the metastasis of intermediation in recent decades.

Where money goes, intermediation follows:  that’s one of the unmentionable realities of political economy, the science that Adam Smith actually founded, but was gutted, stuffed, and mounted on the wall—turned, that is, into the contemporary pseudoscience of economics—once it became painfully clear just what kind of trouble got stirred up when people got to talking about the implications of the links between political power and economic wealth.

There’s another side to the metastasis just mentioned, though, and it has to do with the habits of thought that the money economy both requires and reinforces. At the heart of the entire system of money is the concept of abstract value, the idea that goods and services share a common, objective attribute called “value” that can be gauged according to the one-dimensional measurement of price.

 It’s an astonishingly complex concept, and so needs unpacking here. Philosophers generally recognize a crucial distinction between facts and values; there are various ways of distinguishing them, but the one that matters for our present purposes is that facts are collective and values are individual.

Consider the statement “it rained here last night.” Given agreed-upon definitions of “here” and “last night,” that’s a factual statement; all those who stood outside last night in the town where I live and looked up at the sky got raindrops on their faces. In the strict sense of the word, facts are objective—that is, they deal with the properties of objects of perception, such as raindrops and nights.

Values, by contrast, are subjective—that is, they deal with the properties of perceiving subjects, such as people who look up at the sky and notice wetness on their faces.

One person is annoyed by the rain, another is pleased, another is completely indifferent to it, and these value judgments are irreducibly personal; it’s not that the rain is annoying, pleasant, or indifferent, it’s the individuals who are affected in these ways. Nor are these personal valuations easy to sort out along a linear scale without drastic distortion.

The human experience of value is a richly multidimensional thing; even in a language as poorly furnished with descriptive terms for emotion as English is, there are countless shades of meaning available for talking about positive valuations, and at least as many more for negative ones.

From that vast universe of human experience, the concept of abstract value extracts a single variable—“how much will you give for it?”—and reduces the answer to a numerical scale denominated in dollars and cents or the local equivalent.

Like any other act of reductive abstraction, it has its uses, but the benefits of any such act always have to be measured against the blind spots generated by reductive modes of thinking, and the consequences of that induced blindness must either be guarded against or paid in full. The latter is far and away the more common of the two, and it’s certainly the option that modern industrial society has enthusiastically chosen.

Those of my readers who want to see the blindness just mentioned in full spate need only turn to any of the popular cornucopian economic theorists of our time.

The fond and fatuous insistence that resource depletion can’t possibly be a problem, because investing additional capital will inevitably turn up new supplies—precisely the same logic, by the way, that appears in the legendary utterance “I can’t be overdrawn, I still have checks left!”—unfolds precisely from the flattening out of qualitative value into quantitative price just discussed. 

The habit of reducing every kind of value to bare price is profitable in a money economy, since it facilitates ignoring every variable that might get in the way of making money off  transactions; unfortunately it misses a minor but crucial fact, which is that the laws of physics and ecology trump the laws of economics, and can neither be bribed nor bought.

The contemporary fixation on abstract value isn’t limited to economists and those who believe them, nor is its potential for catastrophic consequences.

I’m thinking here specifically of those people who have grasped the fact that industrial civilization is picking up speed on the downslope of its decline, but whose main response to it consists of trying to find some way to stash away as much abstract value as possible now, so that it will be available to them in some prospective post-collapse society.

Far more often than not, gold plays a central role in that strategy, though there are a variety of less popular vehicles that play starring roles the same sort of plan.

Now of course it was probably inevitable in a consumer society like ours that even the downfall of industrial civilization would be turned promptly into yet another reason to go shopping. Still, there’s another difficulty here, and that’s that the same strategy has been tried before, many times, in the last years of other civilizations. There’s an ample body of historical evidence that can be used to see just how well it works. The short form? Don’t go there.

It so happens, for example, that in there among the sagas and songs of early medieval Europe are a handful that deal with historical events in the years right after the fall of Rome: the Nibelungenlied, Beowulf, the oldest strata of Norse saga, and some others.

Now of course all these started out as oral traditions, and finally found their way into written form centuries after the events they chronicle, when their compilers had no way to check their facts; they also include plenty of folktale and myth, as oral traditions generally do.

Still, they describe events and social customs that have been confirmed by surviving records and archeological evidence, and offer one of the best glimpses we’ve got into the lived experience of descent into a dark age.

Precious metals played an important part in the political economy of that age—no surprises there, as the Roman world had a precious-metal currency, and since banks had not been invented yet, portable objects of gold and silver were the most common way that the Roman world’s well-off classes stashed their personal wealth.

As the western empire foundered in the fifth century CE and its market economy came apart, hoarding precious metals became standard practice, and rural villas, the doomsteads of the day, popped up all over.

When archeologists excavate those villas, they routinely find evidence that they were looted and burnt when the empire fell, and tolerably often the archeologists or a hobbyist with a metal detector has located the buried stash of precious metals somewhere nearby, an expressive reminder of just how much benefit that store of abstract wealth actually provided to its owner.

That’s the same story you get from all the old legends: when treasure turns up, a lot of people are about to die. The Volsunga saga and the Nibelungenlied, for example, are versions of the same story, based on dim memories of events in the Rhine valley in the century or so after Rome’s fall.

The primary plot engine of those events is a hoard of the usual late Roman kind,  which passes from hand to hand by way of murder, torture, treachery, vengeance, and the extermination of entire dynasties.

For that matter, when Beowulf dies after slaying his dragon, and his people discover that the dragon was guarding a treasure, do they rejoice?

Not at all; they take it for granted that the kings and warriors of every neighboring kingdom are going to come and slaughter them to get it—and in fact that’s what happens. That’s business as usual in a dark age society.

The problem with stockpiling gold on the brink of a dark age is thus simply another dimension, if a more extreme one, of the broader problem with intermediation. It bears remembering that gold is not wealth; it’s simply a durable form of money, and thus, like every other form of money, an arbitrary token embodying a claim to real wealth—that is, goods and services—that other people produce.

If the goods and services aren’t available, a basement safe full of gold coins won’t change that fact, and if the people who have the goods and services need them more than they want gold, the same is true.

Even if the goods and services are to be had, if everyone with gold is bidding for the same diminished supply, that gold isn’t going to buy anything close to what it does today. What’s more, tokens of abstract value have another disadvantage in a society where the rule of law has broken down: they attract violence the way a dead rat draws flies.

The fetish for stockpiling gold has always struck me, in fact, as the best possible proof that most of the people who think they are preparing for total social collapse haven’t actually thought the matter through, and considered the conditions that will obtain after the rubble stops bouncing.

Let’s say industrial civilization comes apart, quickly or slowly, and you have gold.  In that case, either you spend it to purchase goods and services after the collapse, or you don’t.

If you do, everyone in your vicinity will soon know that you have gold, the rule of law no longer discourages people from killing you and taking it in the best Nibelungenlied fashion, and sooner or later you’ll run out of ammo. If you don’t, what good will the gold do you?

The era when Nibelungenlied conditions apply—when, for example, armed gangs move from one doomstead to another, annihilating the people holed up there, living for a while on what they find, and then moving on to the next, or when local governments round up the families of those believed to have gold and torture them to death, starting with the children, until someone breaks—is a common stage of dark ages.

It’s a self-terminating one, since sooner or later the available supply of precious metals or other carriers of abstract wealth are spread thin across the available supply of warlords.

This can take anything up to a century or two before we reach the stage commemorated in the Anglo-Saxon poem “The Seafarer:” Nearon nú cyningas ne cáseras, ne goldgiefan swylce iú wáeron (No more are there kings or caesars or gold-givers as once there were).

That’s when things begin settling down and the sort of feudal arrangement sketched out in last week’s post begins to emerge, when money and the market play little role in most people’s lives and labor and land become the foundation of a new, impoverished, but relatively stable society where the rule of law again becomes a reality.

None of us living today will see that period arrive, but it’s good to know where the process is headed. We’ll discuss the practical implications of that knowledge in a future post.

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The Darkest Pool

SUBHEAD: The darkest pool of magic capital is borrowed from the future of declining expectations.

By James Kunstler on 8 July 2013 for Kunstler.com -
(kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-darkest-pool/)


Image above: Flotsam after watery birthday party. From (http://robcartwrightphotoblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/04/canalival/).

Like entropy, the diminishing returns of technology never sleep. The hubristic techno-narcissism of the day, as seen in mankind’s efforts to fake-out the universe, will eventually get our one-way ticket to Palookaville punched. Perhaps there’s such a thing as being too cool after all.

The trick so far has been to create massive inflation, export the effects of it to other trading partners, and end up with a lot more money here in the USA, or the illusion of more money. Well, loans, for houses, cars, and college tuitions. 

In a word: debt. Let’s call it “Rainman Economics,” because it begins to resemble the behavior of a severely autistic human being who performs a small range of obsessive actions over and over and over, often centered on numbers. Rainman Economics is the policy of the Federal Reserve and, indirectly, the government under Mr. Obama.

The suave and genial Mr. Obama just doesn’t know what’s going on — despite being surrounded by minions with briefing folders, sages and vizeers, quantitative augurers neck-deep in mathematical goat entrails, and (always) the lone, silent soldier toting the dire nuclear “football.” 

Mr. Obama doesn’t know that the universe has launched us on a journey to a place beyond techno-industrialism — and it’s not Ray Kurzweil’s infinity of orgasms. It’s a place where no ring-tones are heard and not so much as a stretch-mark of the Kardashians remains to be found.

This is the eeriest summer. The coordinated effort to devalue gold — so as to maintain the sagging reputation of the world’s re$erve currency — has had the effect mainly of funneling it out of weak hands in the west to strong hands in the east, to countries that at one time or another we regarded as adversaries. China and Russia have been backing up their respective trucks at the gold warehouse loading dock, and before too long they will have yuan and rubles with more credibility than the US dollar.

In these games of currency war, there are too many moving parts for comfort. Paradoxically, the American position is all about maintaining undeserved comfort, that is a standard of living that is no longer earned but borrowed from the darkest pool of magic capital: the future of declining expectations. 

Enjoy the flat screen TVs, water-parks, RVs, and Happy Meals while you can. There is sand in the gears of the moving parts that have made all that possible. It’s quite a trick to debase your currency for strategic advantage and at the same time maintain the world’s credibility in it. 

 The strategic advantage is that debasement allows you to dissipate existing debt by stealth. But that trick is not working too well at the moment in the USA because too many other players are trying the same thing, and doing it badly, so people in foreign lands are dumping their currencies to take refuge in the dollar. The chief product of all this motion is not “prosperity” but instability. That is the last thing that economies need, even if the gamesters in the financial markets can arbitrage it to their advantage.

Instability translates into uncertainty, especially about the relative value of currencies. For the moment, holders of weakening currencies are seeking refuge in seemingly “stronger” dollars in bubbling equity markets. Many more dollars have been stashed on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve in the form of bonds purchased in galumphing bales since 2009 — only the catch is that many of these bonds are worthless, especially the mortgage-backed securities. 

The collateral exists in the form of mold-infused sheetrock, swimming pools with algae blooms, and strip malls left with a single tenant: the wig shop. The Fed will never be able to unload this hoard of garbage, even if it “tapers” its buying of new garbage. The dollars that the Fed creates out of nothing are trapped in this fetid backwater of rotting capital, destined to go nowhere — surely not into activity that produces real wealth, or the means to continue being civilized.

Something’s in the air this hot, soggy summer and it smells like the loss of faith. In another month, as the nights grow cool we’ll approach the sober season of fall, when the air seems to possess powers of magnification and suddenly things can be seen clearly. The high frequency robo trading bots are good at detecting microscopic differences in digital quant pools, but they don’t have the finer sensory antennae of human brains for forces outside the rather narrow math narrative.

For instance, I communed with my fellow citizens this Fourth of July weekend for a few hours at a little beach in a Vermont state park. It was a family kind of place. The mommies and daddies were putting on a competitive tattoo display (along with competitive eating). 

So many skulls, Devil heads, snakes, screaming eagles, flags, and thunderbolts. I suppose they acquire these totem images to ward off some apprehended greater harm, the metaphysically inchoate forces marshaling at the margins of what little normal life remains in this nation of rackets, swindles, and tears. 

All was nonetheless tranquility, there by the little lakeside, with the weenies grilling and the pop-tops popping. A three-year-old came by where I was working on my tan on a towel in the grass, supine. 

He asked me if I was dead. Not yet, I told him. Behind him a skull smoking a doobie loomed in blue and red ink on his daddy’s thigh. My people. My country.


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Raging Bull Market

SUBHEAD: Welcome to the deep end of the risk pool. These financial metaphysics are apart from conditions on-the-ground.

By James Kunstler on 6 May 2013 for Kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2013/05/the-deep-end-of-the-risk-pool.html)


Image above: Deep end of the abandoned Angels Gate Pool in San Perdo, California. From (http://www.flickr.com/photos/lifeontheedge/230242895/lightbox/).

Where on earth did Paul Krugman get the idea -- expressed Monday morning -- that ours is "a weak economy?" The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about to scale previously uncharted heights and the Standard & Poors Index is piling onto its molehill, too. If stocks are up the economy can't be weak since stock markets = the economy.

All the efforts of the Gitchi Manitou behind the operations of money, the Federal Reserve, are bent toward inflating the stock markets, including now the novelty of outright strategic stock purchases, so these stock markets must hold the secrets of economic life.

Notice, the Federal Reserve is not inflating the precious metal markets. Rather, they might be inclined in the deep background to militate against them, or even engage in coordinated subversion of them. It would be convenient for the Fed if the public, increasingly befuddled by the absence of yield, the mis-pricing of risk, and the antics of Larry Kudlow, would just let go of its delusion that yellow and white metals had any intrinsic value -- after all, you can't eat them, can you?

The weight of opinion is also against gold and silver. The redoubtable Martin Armstrong is even inveighing against them because, as he put it, these things trade only on the technicals, not fundamentals.

This does raise a sticky question or two, of course, such as, what if the technicals are detached from the fundamentals, which is to say that the numbers and charts don't jibe with reality? That may be possible, after all, when everything from interest rates to asset purchases are rigged and accounting fraud is the order-of-the-day in government and its larger-than-life handmaiden banks.

Consider, for instance, that if our national government under Obama has continued the practical policies of the Bush II regime -- wars, Gitmo, non-regulation and non-enforcement, wealth confiscation (and reassignment) -- than it may have also continued the underlying principle that "we make our own reality." In which case, the fundamentals are whatever you say they are and the technicals are just traffic lights on the freeway of "liquidity."

That perhaps explains why stock markets rise on both good and bad news. If a few more spec houses are being built in Las Vegas and Phoenix (where, I'm sure, they're needed) then the stock markets go up. If a low manufacturers' index comes out, well, then that's fine, too, because the Federal Reserve puts up a smoke signal that it might increase its monthly bond-buying beyond the current $85 billion a month -- meaning more liquidity to juice the stock markets, so up-up-and-away they go up.

The stock markets apparently rocked on last week's news that about 175,000 more car wash attendants were added to the work force, because that's where the money is these days. If I were Warren Buffet or Jamie Dimon, I would consider part-time work in a car wash to plump up the family fortune.

Consider, though, that when everything is mis-priced then nobody knows the value of anything, and when nobody knows anything and everyone is flying blind, then accidents can happen. Welcome to the deep end of the risk pool.

Count Paul Krugman of The New York Times among those who don't know anything and as you do that, consider also that societies get what they deserve, not what they expect. What Paul Krugman doesn't know (because he never mentions it), for example, is that oil prices around $100 a barrel (the average between West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude) crush industrial economies.

That implacable downdraft is what motivates USGov.com and the Fed to intervene and manipulate the things that represent economic activity: currencies, asset values, interest rates, and markets, which in turn promotes the detachment of the technicals from fundamentals. Anyone actually paying attention to the weak signals coming through all the noise would hear the faint wail of desperation in the background.

These financial metaphysics are apart from conditions on-the-ground all over the foundering empire, namely, an infrastructure for daily life that becomes more onerous and obsolete every day. When historians of the future swap their stories around the campfire, this age will be remembered for little more than all the useless movement of automobiles and the fate of the crumbling surfaces they moved about on. Not even Paul Krugman is capable of noticing how we live, and what it means.

Well, spring has finally arrived in the bony northeast USA and I am preoccupied with cultivating my own garden. In honor of our heritage I planted two American chestnuts. The species was nearly put out of business in the first stirrings of the global economy, when previously unknown plant diseases arrived here with shipments of foreign botanicals. Now that the global economy is imploding, it is a favorable time to get with the older program, in which the technicals reflect the fundamentals.

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Gold Crash Aftershocks

SUBHEAD: The fix is in. People may be ready for money with intrinsic value, but there is not enough of it to cover our obligations.

By James Kunstler on 22 April 2013 for Kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2013/04/aftershocks.html)


Image above: Illustration of fleeing the dollar for gold by David Dees. From (http://www.activistpost.com/2012/12/12-gold-bugs-bring-christmas-cheer.html).

If the FBI can track down two homicidal Chechen nobodies inside of forty-eight hours of their Boston bombing caper, you kind of wonder how come the Bureau can't detect the odor of racketeering, insider trading, and wire fraud in this month's orchestrated smackdown of the gold futures markets, including the parts played by the Federal reserve, one or more too-big-to-fail banks, self-interested big money players such as George Soros, slumbering regulators at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and tractable editors at The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.

Of course, US Attorney General Eric Holder, who oversees the FBI, has done a fair imitation of a Brooks Brothers store window mannequin for four years, but surely somewhere in the trackless labyrinth of American law enforcement there exists some dogged rogue investigator with a filament of nagging curiosity who might piece together the clunky train of events that may amount to the financial crime of the century.

For instance, it can't be so difficult to determine who was behind the several hundred ton mass dump of paper gold contracts a week or so ago. There must be a pretty simple record of the transaction, retrievable with a warrant or a subpoena. Whatever entity did it -- still ostensibly unknown -- knowingly generated losses in the neighborhood of a billion dollars for itself.

Was this just the cost of doing business? Or a favor owed, say, from a bank to its godfathers at the Fed, carried out to make the dollar look relatively a lot less unsound than it really is? Or a ruse to allow the custodians of bullion in US depositories re-acquire at bargain prices gold that has been stealthily hypothicated into oblivion? Or just to divert attention from their inability to make good on contracted deliveries of actual physical gold.

No official has yet answered why the Federal Reserve Bank of New York told the German government a couple of months ago that it would take seven years to return that country's gold held in safekeeping (across the ocean from the Russians) since the Cold War. The NY Fed must have a vessel under contract that makes the proverbial slow boat to China look like an ICBM.

Doesn't anybody want some answers to these questions, including how come the two aforementioned major newspapers published front-page stories calculated to justify, if not provoke, the most extreme negative sentiment in the precious metals markets, seemingly coordinated with Goldman Sachs advisories to short those markets?

And what about a glance at the trading records to see who executed massive naked shorts? Wouldn't it be interesting if they were the same parties as the dumpers?

And why? -- other than a strenuous intervention in the markets to make those markets look unreliable?

Does anyone even remember that the purpose of financial exchanges is to verify and authenticate the clearing of trades to provide confidence that markets are honest so that real business can be conducted?

What the interveners have accomplished is only to prove that the gold and silver derivatives markets are unreliable. They may have smashed the trade in that kind of paper, but only achieved a firmer divergence between the derivatives markets and the bullion markets where, for example, the premiums on delivery of silver ounces makes the price exactly equal to the pre-smackdown price. Anyway, nobody believes that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) or that the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) can deliver.

Meanwhile, runs on bullion contracts were starting to uncover a contagion of swindling in precious metals obligations that pervaded the western banking system. It was not a coincidence that the smackdown happened three weeks after the Dutch bank ABN Amro notified clients that it would only satisfy demands for redemptions of gold held in its custody with equivalent cash payments. "No gold for you today!" A fair inference based on subsequent events would be that all the custodians of physical gold bullion have misreported their holdings.

And now that actions by the European Union and its agents have ventured into the dangerous territory of plain confiscation, there is not a whole lot of faith throughout the western world by people who are paying attention that an account of any kind in any financial institution is safe. There is good reason to fear runs on everything.

Because the smackdown organizers pulled off their operation in a panic, they probably ignored the potential further negative consequences of their stratagem, namely a worsening loss of confidence in banks generally and in the trade of abstract financial instruments in particular, including currencies.

Nervous public officials may be brooding on imminent "bail-ins" and currency controls, but the public may be ready to bail out of the prevailing banking model into things that have been considered more money than "money" for a few thousand years, namely real gold and silver. The basic fact remains: there isn't enough to go around.

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Smack Down Time 4/15/13
Ea O Ka Aina: That Dreadful Day 4/8/13
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Smack Down Time

SUBHEAD: The weeks ahead could be a bloodbath for the dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.

By James Kunstler on 15 April 2013 for Kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2013/04/smack-down-time.html)


Image above: Speculation on gold creates a financial bubble. From (http://goldco.pl/blog/banka-spekulacyjna-na-zlocie-i-srebrze/).

What a humdinger last week was in a money world that is chugging toward maximum velocity and turbulence. Readers know (and may be sick of hearing) that I'm allergic to conspiracy theories, but my allergy is not absolute or total and there are excellent reasons to believe that the smack down of gold and silver was an orchestrated event.

By whom?

So far, in the opaque realm of paper gold sales, we don't know, except that it was a 500-ton dump that set off the larger skid, and it is even quite possible, as one anonymous wag put it on James Sinclair's website, that the buyer and seller were virtually the same entity -- meaning that the probable naked short transaction only amounted to a mere bookkeeping jot when all was said and done.

Anyway, the 500-ton all-at-once dump could only be calculated to drive the price down. Any rational strategic sale of so much gold would be parceled out in smaller amounts over time so as not to drastically impair the sales revenue, as this sale did.

And, by the way, who even has the roughly $25 billion holdings in paper gold besides a major government, a major central bank, or one of the Fed's Too Big To Fail handmaidens (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley)? Or who could afford to eat the $billion-plus loss on the smacked-down sales value? In other words, the usual suspects.
 
I hate the term The Powers That Be, with its odors of recycled paranoia and lumpen extremism, but signs of collusion abounded last week. First, on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs issued an advisory to short gold as the price flirted with $1600/oz. Then on Thursday, The New York Times planted a front-page story headlined: "Gold, Long a Secure Investment, Loses Its Luster."

The story featured a quote by supreme market manipulator and world-class schmikler George Soros: "Gold was destroyed as a safe haven, proved to be unsafe," Mr. Soros said in an interview last week with The South China Morning Post of Hong Kong. "Because of the disappointment, most people are reducing their holdings of gold."

Well, there you have it. Soros sez: Gold = shit. If you get some on your shoe, scrape it off. All that set the stage for the Friday smack down. Notice how falling gold and silver prices make the US dollar look good -- it takes fewer dollars to buy more precious metal. The dollar must therefore be sound!

And this is in the interest of whom? Say, perhaps, a Federal Reserve busy systematically melting away the value of dollars through so-called quantitative easing (money "printing" or promiscuous credit creation) plus financial repression (interest rate chicanery), and also a US government so deep underwater on its debt obligations that Treasury Secretary Jack Lew shares office space with the giant squid of the Aleutian Trench.

To complicate matters, the day of the gold smash, rumors flew of a plan by the Cyprus government to sell off its relatively small gold holdings to pay off its EU debt -- didn't happen -- but the rumor had the effect of further queering the gold price some more by implying that the EU would soon come calling on all the PIIGS nations to settle up their vigs with yellow metal.

Thursday, interesting things happened in another ring of the circus.

The novelty investment called Bitcoin, having developed a hockey-stick chart profile, shooting up from about $60 a month ago to $260, got smacked smartly back down to $60. It had been attracting a lot of attention as a shelter from international monetary shenanigans -- and hypothetically as an eventual rival to funny-money central bank currencies.

Bitcoin is a web-based species of virtual "money" invented by a shady character (or cohort of characters) called Satoshi Nakamoto whose true persona remains mysterious.

Bitcoin's supposed virtue is that it can't be confiscated by governments -- though experienced programmers know any website can be hacked -- or otherwise meddled with, making it a more reliable store of value than the traditional "safe harbor" investments such as sovereign bonds and precious metals.

Well, okay, but it raises a couple of questions:
  1. Does the world need an even more abstract form of "money" than fiat currencies, CDOs, Fannie Mae promissory notes, and JC Penny stock? I don't think so. If anything, the world needs more tangible instruments to represent a store of value, a medium of exchange, and an index of price. Bitcoin is little more than a bundle of algorithms. Granted, math helps with the management of money, but is math "money?"

  2. What happens if you can't get online to access your Bitcoin "wallet?" Is Bitcoin, after all, just another example of the techno-narcissism infecting contemporary culture?
That idea is just off the radar screens of Bitcoin pimps such as Jon Matonis of Forbes Magazine who said last week that "civilization won't regress to the state of having no electricity." Really? You think so? Just watch. Electric grids all over the world are aging and decrepit -- the USA's in particular -- and the capital is not there to renovate them.

And perhaps you haven't noticed the gathering scarcity problem with fossil fuels. You bet society could regress to, first, spotty electrical service and then possibly no electricity at all in many places.

But that is an extreme case because in the meantime all it would take is a "denial of service" incident to render Bitcoin useless -- and the mysterious Mr or Ms Nakamoto him/her/itself induced a half-day time-out in Bitcoin last week, taking its Mt.Gox trading platform off-line.

The week ahead in world money matters looks bloody and gruesome. Japan is committing financial hara-kiri by central bank desperation.

In artificially suppressing the gold price, the American Powers That Be (yccchhh....) give China, Russia and other rivals the opportunity to buy gold cheaply, and to do so by dumping some of their US Treasury holdings, weakening the dollar's international exchange value -- which the gold smack down was supposed to enhance!

China and Russia have both been steadily accumulating their gold holdings in plain sight, with the possible motive of backing currencies with more appeal in international trade settlements than the dodgy US dollar.

The weeks ahead could be a bloodbath for the four horsemen of monetary apocalypse: the dollar, the Japanese yen, the Euro, and Great Britain's pound -- that is, the core of the so-called advanced economies of the world. What a prankster history is!


Flashback Warning

SUBHEAD: “Watch The Metals, When They Dip. It Will Be A Good Indication That Things Are About To Happen.”

Mac Slavo on 15 April 2013 for SHTF Plan -

As of this print the price of gold is reaching fresh two year lows, down nearly 25% from its all time high just six months ago. Though uninformed onlookers and financial pundits may see this as the popping of the proverbial gold bubble, the velocity and scale of the take-down in precious metals suggests that there is a massive assault in the works. According to former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts, last Friday’s price drop was the result of some 500 tons of gold being dumped onto paper markets, an amount equal to about $25 Billion dollars worth of the metal. Likewise, silver saw a similar dump and price drop. Moreover, the very same thing is taking place this morning, suggesting that some very large and influential market makers are involved.

Who has that kind of money and can afford to lose it in naked short positions? According to Paul Craig Roberts, “only a central bank that can print it.”

Thus, one must assume that this is not a natural effect of the free market, but rather, a coordinated attack on the global precious metals exchange orchestrated by our very own Federal Reserve, an organization run by a board of directors that includes representatives from some of the world’s largest banking institutions.

What’s most alarming about the collapse of gold and silver is that it was predicted in December of 2012 by a Department of Homeland Security Insider. In an interview with Doug Hagmann at the Northeast Intelligence Network, the insider warned that life for the average America would change drastically, and soon, and that this change would be preceded by various events, one of which is a major dip in precious metals:
They already are in motion. If you’re looking for a date I can’t tell you. Remember, the objectives are the same, but plans, well, they adapt. They exploit. Watch how this fiscal cliff thing plays out. This is the run-up to the next beg economic event.
I can’t give you a date. I can tell you to watch things this spring. Start with the inauguration and go from there. Watch the metals, when they dip. It will be a good indication that things are about to happen. I got that little tidbit from my friend at [REDACTED]
(full interview)
If we were to assume that this 25% dip amounting to some $50 billion just over the last two days could be the the precious metals “dip” referred to by the DHS Insider, then we must likewise assume that some very serious events are on the horizon.

To what end?

That remains to be seen, but if the US government’s war-gaming of economic collapse and civil unrest is any guide, we may be looking at the worst case scenario many have feared – an engineered collapse of our financial and economic systems leading to the centralization of control through implementation of martial law across America.

Sound far-fetched?

Perhaps. Unless of course you’re part of the Congressional membership that was explicitly warned of this very possibility at the height of the 2008 crisis:
Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday, that the sky would fall, the market would drop two or three thousands points the first day, another couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told that there would be martial law in America if we voted no.
House Representative Brad Sherman (D-California)
Debate on the House Floor, October 2, 2008

[video source]
Do you really think they saved the system back in 2008?

According to SGT Report, those involved in the take-down of gold and silver may not been done yet, as the unrelenting push against precious metals proves once again that the arrogance of criminal cartels behind global financial market manipulation continues.

We once opined that you should expect exactly such an event - a mega drop in precious metals – to take place and that you’ll hate your gold so much you’ll want to spit on it.

But consider that in the 1970′s, as gold assailed to its eventual all-time highs, it was halved in price at least once over the ten year period that it rose from double digits to over $800 per ounce.

During times of uncertainty, irrational events will occur. This is inevitable.

Don’t let the hype and manipulation change your long-term preparedness plans.

Consider what is money when the system as we know it collapses, and continue to acquire those hard assets that will retain value and barterability.
The worst is yet to come.
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That Dreadful Day

SUBHEAD: A day that the ultimate TV reality show debuts. Waterboarding the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills.

By James Kunstler on 8 April 2013 for Kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2013/04/that-dreadful-day.html)


Image above: The Real Housewives of Beverley Hills live in a insulated bubble of fantasy. Platic statuary. From (http://www.eonline.com/photos/2011/the-real-housewives-of-beverly-hills).

For the moment, the trend seems pretty clear. Money from far and wide rushes into the US stock markets because every other conceivable place to stash money produces no return, no interest, no increase, at a time when the value of central bank currencies is slip-slidin' somewhere south of Palookaville. The rush into equities gooses equities increasing the rush, goosing the goose. Consider, however, that trends by their nature must last longer than the moment to be trends in the first place. One thing you can be sure of: the trend will end.

Another region of the trend concerns the recent peculiar behavior of gold and silver. Fear and greed may rule the trade in paper instruments, but something else rules the trade in hard metals: uncertainty. These days the uncertainty is very keen, not so much about the direction of the trade in paper - because the trend is up, up, and away - but whether the placeholders for the paper are for real, or whether you get to keep any of them when the dust settles at every dust-up.

Markets can go wither they will, but it's another matter when the government slams on capital controls and you can't move your money or redeem it from your account.

With the precedent of Cyprus now established (never mind MF Global), you'd think people all over the planet would be buying gold and silver as stores of value without counterparty risk, but the price keeps slowly sinking. I don't think it's because of the much chattered-about threat of confiscation. The US government could not be dumb enough to try to pull an FDR-style gold grab. This is a different land than it was in 1933.

The people who hold gold are exactly the same people who are very heavily armed, and just because the Department of Homeland Security supposedly has been buying up all the ammo on God's green earth, virtually all the people who are heavily armed are already heavily stocked up on ammo, too, and have quite enough to start an insurrection if the treasury agents come calling for their life savings.

Though I'm generally allergic to conspiracy theories, it smells like someone is engineering the downward behavior of the metals. The central banks of the US and Europe have a big incentive for driving the price down: it makes their currencies look stronger - despite the universal QE policies designed to make them actually weaker. That is, it gives the appearance that QE is not doing exactly what it is intended to do: wage currency war by driving down the value of money and incidentally inflating away the cost of debt denominated in these currencies.

I think the Federal Reserve and its TBTF cronies will succeed in driving the price of gold down, perhaps as far as the $1350 range, for a while (a moment, let's say). But by the time it gets there they will have completely wrecked the economies they pretend to represent, and driven many citizens into penury. Now, consider that hyperinflation is always a rather sudden phenomenon. When it comes on, it comes fast and hard, by the day and then the hour.

The Fed and its handmaidens will not be able to control it when it happens, because it will spring from all their previous actions, including the concealment of the loss of value of the dollar via manipulation of the gold and silver markets - and Ben Bernanke can't pretend that his helicopter is a time machine. There will be no going back to undo what he's already done.

That's the point where you will see the price of gold very quickly head toward $3,500 or even $10,000 and beyond, depending on the damage done and the oafishness of the political response. QE to infinity really translates into dollar wreckage to infinity.

History will record that this crisis of confidence in money was brought on by men who stupidly refused to acknowledge that the terms of daily human existence had changed in 2013. We could save the country and fashion a new economy appropriate to the new era of contraction, but it wouldn't look much like what you see out there now. It would be all about empty highways and empty WalMarts and people turning their energies elsewhere, to their communities, workshops, homesteads, and main streets.

We'll get to that place, but the journey to it will be dark and lonely since it will be accomplished by individuals bravely venturing where no politician dares to speak of, and the lonely individuals will receive no support from their culture or any of the authorities who play at political leadership.

There could well come a time, though, when those authorities will be disgraced, dragged down, and trampled, and I would tremble to be there on that dreadful day. That will be the day that the ultimate TV reality show debuts. Call it: Waterboarding the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills. When elites circulate, things get messy.

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Liberty coins illegal

SUBHEAD: U.S. Treasury & Secret Service ban sale of silver and gold liberty dollars on Ebay.

By Mac Slavo on 17 December 2012 for SHTF Plan -
(http://www.shtfplan.com/precious-metals/u-s-secret-service-bans-sale-of-silver-and-gold-liberty-dollars-on-ebay_12172012)


Image above: 2005 $20 Liberty Dollar coin now considered counterfeit by U.S. government. From (http://www.geocities.ws/nealibertyassociates/look.html).

In early 2011 Bernad Von Nothaus was convicted by the US government and identified as a domestic terrorist by Federal prosecutors for minting his own silver and gold coinage, and then offering those coins for sale to clients. He dubbed the coins “Liberty Dollars” and by doing so brought upon himself the ire of the U.S. Secret Service, Federal Reserve and a host of other government agencies.

According to the government, Von Nothaus was a counterfeiter, though he made no attempts to actually counterfeit U.S. currency, but rather, provide another mechanism of exchange through the use of precious metals.

After Von Nothaus’ conviction, the Secret Service warned they would be confiscating all Liberty Dollar coins manufactured by Nothaus’ company, NorFed.

Since the shutdown of VonNothaus’ operation, many of the coins have been offered for sale or trade on mega-auction site Ebay, and this week the Secret Service took action. They contacted Ebay, which in turn advised sellers of the coins on their site that they could no longer engage in the trade of silver coins with the Norfed Liberty Dollar hallmark:
The United States Secret Service has requested the removal of all Norfed Liberty dollars on the eBay site as counterfeits. … Please do not relist this item(s). We appreciate that you chose to list this coin on our site and understand there was no ill intent on your part. Your listing fees have been credited to your account.
There is nothing special about the Liberty Dollar coins other than the fact that they are pure silver; and, of course, that they actually have intrinsic value as compared to general circulation U.S. legal tender which is, by most accounts, essentially worthless in terms of metal value.


Image above: Old 1921 U.S. government Liberty $1 coin now out of circulation. From (http://www.bukisa.com/articles/460826_all-for-a-dollar-poem).

The government disagrees with this argument, and in a press release issued by the US Department of Justice, said that the trade of such coins amounts to nothing short of terrorism because it poses a direct threat to the stability of the United States:
Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism, U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country, she added. We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government.
The Secret Service has gotten involved in order to ensure buyers don’t get confused by thinking they are acquiring legal U.S. tender. Apparently they believe that someone who buys a silver coin for $35 may, in a state of confusion, then attempt to exchange it for a $1 soda pop in the open market.

Today they are targeting the Liberty Dollar because it “represents a clear and present danger to the economic stability” of the United States. It wouldn’t be that far a stretch of the imagination to suggest the government could make the same argument for any mechanism of exchange or store of value, especially those which contain gold and silver.

They confiscated gold in the 1930′s for much the same reasons. They may very well do it again, but this time you may be a terrorist if you have silver or gold coins at home when they come looking.

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: FBI after Wikipedia of its seal 8/3/10

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Road to World War 3

SUBHEAD: Those controlling the American empire are willing to enter World War III to get their way.

By Aaron Hawking on 11 September 2012 for Strom Clouds Gathering -
(http://stormcloudsgathering.com/the-road-to-world-war-3)


Image above:Still image from video below. From original  article.

We are on a road that leads straight to the World War 3, but in order to see that and to fully understand what is at stake you have to look at the big picture and connect the dots. This video examines the history of the dollar, its relation to oil, and the real motives behind the wars of the past two decades.


Video above: "The Roaf to World War 3". From (http://youtu.be/HP7L8bw5QF4).

Credits:
Music is original composition by StormCloudsGathering
Thumbnail is creative commons
Scenes from Grey State trailer used with permission from http://www.graystatemovie.com
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