SUBHEAD: What if the consensus on small-scale toolmaking and agriculture is wrong?
By Charles Hugh Smith on 13 July 2016 for Of Two Minds -
(http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/what-if-consensus-on-small-scale.html)
Image above: Simple home-made hand-cranked metal swivel making tool. From (http://www.homemadetools.net/swivel-making-fixture-2).
[IB Publlisher's note: I think Charles Hugh Smith is correct in his assessment, but for one thing... the practicality of something like FarmBot to solve any small scale farming problems. Was this just an inserted promotional deal, or what?]
The idea that food is globally incredibly cheap right now doesn't compute in the mainstream narrative.
In the consensus view, agriculture is only profitable on a mega-farm corporate scale, and tool-making has been offshored because it's unprofitable to manufacture stuff in the U.S. But what if both of these "obvious" consensus opinions are flat-out wrong? What if small-scale farming and toolmaking are both potentially profitable?
Perhaps we should be asking: what if the highest future profits will belong to small-scale agriculture and manufacturing, not Wall Street or Silicon Valley? This idea is so far out of the mainstream that it is widely considered "impossible:" nothing could be more profitable than politically sacrosanct "too big to fail" Wall Street banks or quasi-monopoly tech giants.
As for agriculture--nothing could be more profitable than large-scale corporate production, all watched over by machines of loving grace (as per Richard Brautigan and Adam Curtis).
All of these presumed "truths" may be melting into air if small-scale machine tools and software technologies enable highly efficient and productive small-scale agriculture:
Drew Sample and I discuss these nascent but potentially revolutionary trends in a new podcast, Small Scale Farming, Small Scale Manufacturing (1:08 hrs).
Video above: Meet FarmBot - the robotic CNC small gardening tool. From (https://youtu.be/uNkADHZStDE).
Critics will quickly point out that large-scale production of grains such as corn and wheat and crops such as soy beans cannot be profitably grown in small plots. While that's currently a financial reality, that does not imply it's a permanent truth: large-scale agriculture consumes vast quantities of fossil fuels (currently cheap, but maybe not cheap forever) and huge quantities of minerals such as potash that are non-renewable.
Should essential non-renewables skyrocket in price, large-scale agriculture becomes a lot more costly to operate.
There's also the question of sustainability. Typical large-scale practices such as tilling cause soil loss that cannot be "fixed" with conventional methods. Then there's the decline of water tables as aquifers are drained by conventional agricultural practices.
In typical Wall Street fashion, the perspective on what's sustainable currently extends about one quarter (three months). Few observers ask what will be sustainable in 20 years.
The idea that food is globally incredibly cheap right now also doesn't compute in the mainstream narrative. The idea that basic foods could double, triple or quadruple in price as large-scale crop failures become more common and input costs soar is rejected as "impossible."
But this mainstream faith that food will remain cheap forever ignores the vulnerabilities in global stores and supply chains and the potential for catastrophic crop failures as global rainfall and climate patterns shift or become erratic.
The idea that tomorrow's hotshots will not be attorneys or coders or bankers but makers and growers appears improbable in the current era of glorifying financiers and techies. But if these centralized, largely abstract profit centers have reached the apex of the S-Curve, then their days of dominance are numbered regardless of what analysts project.
Right now such a decline in the dominance of centralized corporate farming, banking and technology is viewed as "impossible." Maybe the wiser view is that such a decline in both inevitable and healthy for the nation, though not for Wall Street.
See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Techno-Optimists introduce FarmBot 7/14/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Robot runs over young boy 7/13/16
.
By Charles Hugh Smith on 13 July 2016 for Of Two Minds -
(http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/what-if-consensus-on-small-scale.html)
Image above: Simple home-made hand-cranked metal swivel making tool. From (http://www.homemadetools.net/swivel-making-fixture-2).
[IB Publlisher's note: I think Charles Hugh Smith is correct in his assessment, but for one thing... the practicality of something like FarmBot to solve any small scale farming problems. Was this just an inserted promotional deal, or what?]
The idea that food is globally incredibly cheap right now doesn't compute in the mainstream narrative.
In the consensus view, agriculture is only profitable on a mega-farm corporate scale, and tool-making has been offshored because it's unprofitable to manufacture stuff in the U.S. But what if both of these "obvious" consensus opinions are flat-out wrong? What if small-scale farming and toolmaking are both potentially profitable?
Perhaps we should be asking: what if the highest future profits will belong to small-scale agriculture and manufacturing, not Wall Street or Silicon Valley? This idea is so far out of the mainstream that it is widely considered "impossible:" nothing could be more profitable than politically sacrosanct "too big to fail" Wall Street banks or quasi-monopoly tech giants.
As for agriculture--nothing could be more profitable than large-scale corporate production, all watched over by machines of loving grace (as per Richard Brautigan and Adam Curtis).
All of these presumed "truths" may be melting into air if small-scale machine tools and software technologies enable highly efficient and productive small-scale agriculture:
Drew Sample and I discuss these nascent but potentially revolutionary trends in a new podcast, Small Scale Farming, Small Scale Manufacturing (1:08 hrs).
Video above: Meet FarmBot - the robotic CNC small gardening tool. From (https://youtu.be/uNkADHZStDE).
Critics will quickly point out that large-scale production of grains such as corn and wheat and crops such as soy beans cannot be profitably grown in small plots. While that's currently a financial reality, that does not imply it's a permanent truth: large-scale agriculture consumes vast quantities of fossil fuels (currently cheap, but maybe not cheap forever) and huge quantities of minerals such as potash that are non-renewable.
Should essential non-renewables skyrocket in price, large-scale agriculture becomes a lot more costly to operate.
There's also the question of sustainability. Typical large-scale practices such as tilling cause soil loss that cannot be "fixed" with conventional methods. Then there's the decline of water tables as aquifers are drained by conventional agricultural practices.
In typical Wall Street fashion, the perspective on what's sustainable currently extends about one quarter (three months). Few observers ask what will be sustainable in 20 years.
The idea that food is globally incredibly cheap right now also doesn't compute in the mainstream narrative. The idea that basic foods could double, triple or quadruple in price as large-scale crop failures become more common and input costs soar is rejected as "impossible."
But this mainstream faith that food will remain cheap forever ignores the vulnerabilities in global stores and supply chains and the potential for catastrophic crop failures as global rainfall and climate patterns shift or become erratic.
The idea that tomorrow's hotshots will not be attorneys or coders or bankers but makers and growers appears improbable in the current era of glorifying financiers and techies. But if these centralized, largely abstract profit centers have reached the apex of the S-Curve, then their days of dominance are numbered regardless of what analysts project.
Right now such a decline in the dominance of centralized corporate farming, banking and technology is viewed as "impossible." Maybe the wiser view is that such a decline in both inevitable and healthy for the nation, though not for Wall Street.
See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Techno-Optimists introduce FarmBot 7/14/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Robot runs over young boy 7/13/16
.
2 comments :
If food prices get that high, i think rather than a peaceful environment in which farmers can sell their valuable food in peace, we will have rioting, starvation, etc, which is not a great environment in which to make money on something like farming, which is often literally trampled in the process. I hope that i am wrong. The other problem with getting "highest future profits" from small-scale farming is that small scale farming can't scale up without being no longer small scale, which means that even if you make a lot of money for food, you probably can't make millions unless tomatoes are being sold for thousands of dollars each (after adjusting for inflation). I think in this case just because the main stream thoughts are wrong doesn't mean the opposite of those thoughts are right.
Aloha Gelfling,
Unfortunately, I think you are correct about the difficulty of scaling up small farming. It took almost a century (1800-1900) for American "100 acre farms" to be prevalent enough to support 19th century urban America.
You are right as well about "rioting, starvation" being a likely result of any widespread interruption of 24/7/365 delivery of infrastructure that now provides fully stocked shelves of frozen Haagendaz ice cream and Digiorno pizza to just about everyone in America.
None the less, it is critical to develop as much local food and tool production as possible. This will determine what level of comfort and sophistication will exist for isolated places like Hawaii.
I think we need to develop large scale exportable food and goods production as well. Those cash food crops that might be exportable would include cacao, coffee, marijuana/hemp, dried exotic fruits, etc.
With a history of the Hokulea project and talent like Larry Ellison's (as well as a long history of Hawaiian surfboard shapers) we might be able to develop an industry of construction of large and small catamarans and trimarans.
In the long run we'll need those boats for exporting products and for inter-island travel and commerce as well.
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