Re-Enacting the Superferry

SUBHEAD: The legislation will require the HI DOT to conduct a study on the feasibility of establishing a statewide ferry system. Again.

By Brad Parsons on 22 February 2010 for Island Breath - 


 
Image above: Up the ramp of the Superferry - to what? Photo by Jonathan Jay during practice run to Kauai 8/19/07.

Testimony taken at http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/emailtestimony 

If you testify add in the subject header "Testimony for FIN 2/23/2010 4:30:00 PM HB2667". The following is my testimony on the issue:
Commenting on the revised text of this bill HB 2667:
"While the Hawaii Superferry operation had its shortcomings, rocky start, and questionable financial forecast, it proved to be a very successful mode of transportation of both persons and property between the islands of Maui and Oahu."
Actually, it did not. The financial failings were because of the amount of fuel consumed by these particular vessels, the distances involved, and low ridership partly due to conditions. These were intrinsic to it's failure.
"The purpose of this Act is to require the department of transportation to conduct a study on the feasibility of establishing a statewide ferry system..."



Interesting that this bill as a fallback was turned into a study that's already been done, not once, but twice before. Enterprise Honolulu did a study on the ferry for the Legislature in 2004/2005 and Market Scope Inc. also did a more comprehensive study presented to the PUC. As written, this bill would task the State Department of Transportation (DOT) with doing this study.

That's a DOT that has shown itself to be biased and unobjective on even basic logistical matters of a prospective ferry, such as passenger-only, cargo, size, speed, and propulsion. Should newfound objectivity on this matter be expected from DOT-Harbors? Further, the hastily substituted current version of this bill does not indicate how much money is to be wasted on this study, a matter the Finance Committee no doubt should take strong note of. 
An undeniably realistic conclusion expected from the repetitive study envisioned by this bill would be *subsidizing* a state run ferry service, most likely at a *loss*, to compete with a number of private sector companies by water and air. Not an outcome any better than the present. 
Now, when there's not enough money for keiki here to have 5 decent, full days of school a week, you are being asked to spend more money on a study that has effectively been done, not once, but twice before? 
We recommend responsibly deferring or outright killing this bill and leaving the private sector to do a ferry or not based on studies and experience that are already out there. The State of Hawaii should not waste any more money on this. .

Economic Growth = Climate Disaster

SUBHEAD: Can the public stomach the awful truth? Or, will we go down in a sea of denial and business-as-usual?

By Alex Smith on 22 February 2010 in Culture Change - (http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=607&Itemid=1)

  Image above: Police action during 1999 anti-WTO demonstrations in Seattle, Washington. From (http://raimd.wordpress.com/2010/01/29/raim-s-on-the-wto-10-year-anniversary)

Is global warming unstoppable now? Could we be saved by total economic collapse? If so, should we help civilization fall?

Last night I recorded another glimpse of the climate apocalypse, with the author of "Climate Wars" Gwynne Dyer. He outlined the short distance from here to the cliff where long-known natural feed-backs leading to runaway global warming begin, and continue on for millennia. That limit is known as two degrees. Beyond that, great forests melt into fire, liberating their carbon. Beyond that, the Arctic permafrost melts, likely doubling atmospheric greenhouse gases. Five to seven degrees Centigrade of average global temperature rise. Utter disaster.

Dyer says world governments quickly agreed to the 2 degree limit at Copenhagen, without telling the public why. No need to panic the herd.

Dyer says we won't make it in time, before the big climate switch is pulled. You'll hear clips from that speech in an upcoming Ecoshock Show. I can't run the whole speech, because as usual, Gwynne is developing his new work toward another radio or TV program. I appreciate Gwynne sharing his "working notes" with our Radio Ecoshock audience. Kind of a sneak preview.
Find out more at gwynnedyer.com.

Up early this morning, I tune into a climate science web cast from the Center for American Progress. Two top American IPCC scientists, trying not to say too much. Late in this program, I'll have a few clips and comments from that update, hosted by Joe Romm, of the blog climateprogress.org.

But we'll start out with a different sort of scientist. Cloud specialist Tim Garrett stepped in a few people's faces, when he proposed a formula about carbon and the world's wealth. Simply put, unless our economy collapses, to levels you and I would hate, climate change is unstoppable. Garrett bases his jarring statements on a basic law of physics, of thermodynamics.

Read the "Is Global Warming Unstoppable?" article here.

You won't need a science degree to understand our Radio Ecoshock interview.

Following Garrett, we dive deeper into the culture of despair. Keith Farnish is the author of "Time's Up! An Uncivilized Solution to a Global Crisis". I've put lots of Keith Farnish links below, including one to his online book.

Are you ready to become uncivilized?

If collapse is the best solution, would you help kick the system over? Or would you just watch it fall? Farnish has been called a terrorist, and a green realist. Your brain exercise for troubling times.
Let's start with the science of collapse.

[The Garrett interview, and the next interview with Keith Farnish transcribed below, is at www.ecoshock.net]

We've just heard Tim Garrett from the University of Utah - and let's take a quick review.
His paper is titled "Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?"
The basic thesis, tested against past industrial development, is that neither population nor standard of living have to be included in modeling prediction of climate change. Garrett concludes that civilization, as measured by gross domestic product, is directly related to the amount of carbon burned. More emissions, more wealth. Less emissions, less economic production.
Here is the exact description of the theory, from an abstract of Garrett's paper:
"Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production—or p × g—through a time-independent factor of 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar."
By applying his formula, Garrett says it would take a new nuclear plant built every single day to keep up our current standard of living. As that isn't happening, and may be impossible, the only other solution is economic collapse. In our interview, Garrett suggests a horrible economic crash, which I imagine as diving perhaps to Medieval standards of life, is required just to reach 450 parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
In the conclusion of that paper we find:
"Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.
Because the current state of the system, by nature, is tied to its unchangeable past, it looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in CO2 emission rates. For predictions over the longer term, however, what is required is thermodynamically based models for how rates of carbonization and energy efficiency evolve. To this end, these rates are almost certainly constrained by the size and availability of environmental resource reservoirs."
Several science journalists picked up on the paper's underlying prediction: global warming is unstoppable, unless the economic system crashes. And that leads to our next guest. He agrees, and suggests it is our duty, all of us, to help the inevitable hard landing come sooner, rather than later. Why wait until Nature is totally used up, on a nearly dead planet?

Here are a bunch of links for Keith Farnish: His blog: earth-blog.bravejournal.com. Another blog is unsuitablog.com Keith's book "Time's Up" (online version) timesupbook.com.
 
Alex Smith: What if civilization is a disease, fatal to life on Earth as we know it? That’s the view of Britain’s Keith Farnish, author of the book " Time’s Up! An Uncivilized Solution to a Global Crisis". You might not like what he has to say – or maybe you will. I’m Alex Smith, fearless host of Radio Ecoshock, Keith, welcome to the program.

Keith Farnish: Hi Alex, how are you doing?
 
AS: Well, good, and I gather you tried Greenpeace for about 5 years, but got frustrated with that carousel of protests and then no real change.

KF: Yes, there was only one action that I ever did that was satisfying, and it was the only action that actually involved something really changing. The problem with most of the – and I’m not going to target Greenpeace in particular, only because I’ve got direct experience with them – but, most of the mainstream environmental groups seem to think that you achieve change by going along with the status quo; by kow-towing to whatever system is in place.

And of course you’re going to achieve change relative to what’s going on at the moment, but it’s not significant and if you – and as we go on I’m sure you’ll realise that the kind of change that’s required is certainly not the kind of change that groups like Greenpeace are looking forward to.

AS: Well, you describe our current society as a Culture of Maximum Harm; can you elaborate on that?

KF: Yeah, I must admit those aren’t my personal words – I took them from the peerless Derrick Jensen who some of your listeners will be aware of, and Derrick has written long time on the problems of civilization, particularly Industrial Civilization. The Culture of Maximum Harm really is a way of describing how the system that we have tries to achieve its aims. Imagine that you’re trying to get from one place to another; most people would go from one place to another, they wouldn’t really think about what they’re damaging or the way that they’re doing it in one particular way or another.

The Culture of Maximum Harm tries to achieve its journey by taking as much as it possibly can, and by doing as much damage as it possibly can. And the reason it does this is because it has one primary goal, which is achieve continuous growth – and that’s economic growth, in terms of the word “growth” – and economic growth cannot be sustainable.

So, this culture, which I believe is unique in human history, is doing something that is uniquely destructive. In other words, it is the Culture of Maximum Harm – it is the most harmful way that humans can exist.

AS: One of your maxims is that corporations cannot be green, why not?

KF: A corporation – and this certainly does follow on from what I just said – a corporation exists in order to achieve economic growth, it exists in order to achieve profit. Worse than just an individual trying to make a bit of money, a corporation wants to make sure that it maximises the amount of return for its shareholders, and in order to do that it has to cause damage in some way, and it does that through a variety of methods.

Either it keeps cutting corners, and those can be corners in environmental terms, so it could be ignoring environmental legislation, or it could be paying people as little as it possibly can, or it could be trying to do things as cheaply as possible, in the dirtiest way possible; or it will try and make this profit by taking something that wasn’t there in the first place.

So, to take an oil company as an example: you can’t make something from nothing, but if you have a source of energy underground then effectively you’re taking something from nothing...you’re taking that oil, you’re going to burn it up; the act of burning it up makes you money, and that is essentially how a corporation runs and makes its profit – by taking something that it didn’t have to put back in. Corporations are never going to be sustainable by their nature, because of the way business operates.
AS: You also dismiss governments as any part of the solution; why do you think politics has become so irrelevant?

KF: Well, it’s a very sad tale; I think it goes back to the history of empire, and the British Empire is a very good example of this. Empire has been always intrinsically tied up with trade. The British Empire was a trading body; it was so large because it reached out to as many places in the world as had things that it could take. So, Britain essentially owned India, South Africa, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and many other territories – I think that’s a very good example of how governments are tied up with industry.

 If you listen to any politician give a speech of any length you will always hear the word “growth”, you will always hear the word “economy”, and that is because the primary role of a government within Industrial Civilization is to keep the economy growing. It’s essentially no different to a corporation, and it doesn’t necessarily have to be that way, but I don’t believe that any government of any size exists in this society that isn’t just like a corporation now.

AS: Apparently NASA’s James Hansen agrees with you – in his review of your book on Amazon, he writes, and I quote this for listeners: “Keith Farnish has it right, time has practically run out and the system is the problem. Governments are under the thumb of fossil fuel special interests; they will not look after our and the planet’s well being until we force them to do so, and that is going to require enormous effort. Professor James Hansen of NASA.” Keith, James Hansen is now taking a lot of flak from climate deniers and their ilk for saying that.

KF: I’m not sure it’s necessarily worrying him too much; he has been taking flak for at least the last 20 years from everywhere that possibly could give him flak – the coal industry hate him, the oil industry hate him, an awful lot of Senators hate him, and when he stood up in front of the Senate in 1988 to essentially explain to the American government the potential horrors we were going to face from climate change, he was public enemy number one as far as the US government was concerned.

So, this is a little bit of a flash in the pan, but it ...the words that are being used in relation to James Hansen, and myself, are certainly strong: I’ve been described as a “terrorist” and, by connection, so has James Hansen, words like “genocide”, “eugenics” they’ve all been used in relation to my book, and therefore in relation to James Hansen.

Absurd, yes, because at no point have I ever said I want to kill anything off or destroy anything, it’s...I genuinely do feel for Hansen because he has put probably more than anyone else, of himself into trying to achieve something which is completely dispassionate, it’s altruistic – he’s not doing it for himself! If he was doing it for himself then he would be a businessman, and James Hansen doesn’t make much money; he’s an adjunct professor, he’s a research scientist.

He doesn’t really have anything to gain from this, and he’s lost an awful lot in terms of what...he could have gone on and become a highly successful scientist working for a corporation; he chose the other alternative, he chose to stick to pure science, objective science, and he gets hit a lot for this.

Certainly this isn’t the first time, and certainly won’t be the last time he’s going to get hit for this. I’m proud to call him someone that thinks in a similar way to the way I do.

AS: Getting back to your book, I think we all fear that our economic system is on life-support. You’ve called for an end to industrialised civilization, saying it will fall apart anyway; why should we help it go down – wouldn’t we be sabotaging our own way of living?

KF: Well, we would be sabotaging the way of living that is highly destructive – it depends how dependent you are upon it. I believe that there are certain dependencies that we can do without. I’m not talking about immediately walking away, going off grid, throwing away your job or anything like that; we’ve all got to live, we’ve all got to feed our families, we’ve all got to keep warm, got to have a roof over our heads and there are many situations in which people are tied to this system, so I would be reckless to say that you must abandon this immediately.

However, economic growth is not something that can ever be sustainable, so essentially by not having economic growth what you’ve taking away is something that always takes, something that always destroys – and that’s got to be a good thing. And I don’t believe that not having economic growth will be destructive to anything but the systems of power that dominate the way we live.

I think that undermining, or sabotaging the economic growth machine is a fundamentally good thing; some people have said and written that that is effectively terrorism – well, yes, in a way because the...there is something, and I don’t know what the term that is used in the USA but in Britain it’s called Critical National Infrastructure, and the large financial organisations within the UK are protected under various laws, various security laws, and no doubt they are protected under the various Patriot Acts and other laws in the USA because they are considered to be fundamental – they make money for the economy.

It is a complete misnomer to place them in the same context as the kinds of things that actively save peoples’ lives like medical services. Yet, they are considered – these financial organisations – are considered by governments to be just as important as medical services, as the water supply, as the food supply, and there’s got to be something wrong there.

AS: This is Radio Ecoshock with Alex Smith. We’re talking about kicking it all over with author Keith Farnish. One key idea in your book “Time’s Up!” is that of Connection – can you describe that for us?

KF: It’s very difficult to describe more than one’s personal idea of connection but I can give you an idea of the background. If you look at the way humanity has existed for hundreds of thousands of years, it has required a fundamental connection to the cycles and the processes that take place around the various groups and communities. These groups and communities wouldn’t be able to survive if they didn’t understand the cycles of nature; if they didn’t understand the different ways that animal and plant life, and other forms of biological entities co-exist.

So, in effect, these people, as have existed for far longer than civilization has, are part of nature – they are deeply connected to the natural ecosystem.

Civilization tries to pull us away from that – it gives us this alternative way of living which requires us to be disconnected and, what I’ve written about extensively in the book is that we have to become reconnected, otherwise I don’t think that we can really understand how disconnected we have become.

There is a myriad of different ways of connecting; it’s unique to the individual: writer Carolyn Baker talks about this in far more strident terms than I do, and she considers the idea of Connection to be a deeply spiritual thing and, in a way, it is because it brings things out of you that most people – certainly people within civilization – haven’t realised have been within themselves.

So, when you sit on a beach, or when you sit in the woods, or when you walk around and listen...you really listen, and really smell and taste and touch what’s around you, then it does bring something out in yourself that is spiritual, in a way.

But that’s the Connection coming out, this is something that is fundamental to who we are as human beings and unless we understand that deep connection between humanity and the rest of nature then I don’t believe we’re in a position to really understand what we’re doing to the world and how we can get back.

AS: The next step, you say, is to focus on the Tools of Disconnection. What are some of the ways we become separated from real being and the natural reality?

KF: I put down ten Tools, but there may be even more of these; it was really a way of making people understand the different ways that we live have, all of them, disconnected parts within them, so for instance some of the Tools I’ve suggested are, for instance, the way that we’re advertised to – this idea that we can have a wonderful way of living, but as long as it’s in terms that the corporations sell to us.

There are other Tools like authority and if you look at the work of Stanley Milgram, for instance, in the 1950s he demonstrated unequivocally that you could make people do whatever you want them to do providing you have this chain of command – this form of authority; and authority is fundamental to the way that civilization works. You have a hierarchy, you look up to people, some people look down upon others, but essentially we play our parts because there is this authority.
But all of this is different; this is not connected to the real world.

There’s other Tools of Disconnection which are much more obvious, like abuse – physical abuse – you have military forces which are, all around the world, abusing people, are killing people; and you look at, for instance, what goes on in China constantly then whenever anyone steps out of line and goes against the status quo in China then they are “disappeared”. They are taken out of the system because there is the potential that they may make other people realise that this isn’t quite the way to live – it isn’t quite the way that we should be going along with things.

One of the Tools of Disconnection which is particularly powerful which, unfortunately, a lot of environmentalists are guilty of is the idea of Hope. And I think it’s very, very telling that Obama used hope as his most powerful tool for looking towards the future.

This message was coming from someone who is, to all intents and purposes, at the head of the system. He has some good intentions; however, the idea of giving someone hope takes away your ability to act: rather than going out and actually doing something, if you can just be given enough hope – if you can be given the idea that if you just hope enough then things are going to get better then it disables you. It stops you doing things. So I consider Hope to be one of these Tools of Disconnection as well.

AS: Paul Simon famously sang that there are a Hundred Ways to Leave Your Lover and, Keith Farnish, you’ve found over a hundred ways to undermine the system. Can you give us just a couple of examples?

KF: There’s an article I have written on The Earth Blog which is...it’s not complete yet, because I keep discovering all these little things. I mean I want to be very clear that the idea of Undermining the System is not about...this is not about the things that have been written about in the blogs recently about destroying cities and blowing up dams and things like this; the Undermining is about undermining these Tools of Disconnection. It’s about giving people their freedom back, it’s about giving people their minds back so they can reconnect – so they can live in a way that humanity was meant to live.

But there’s lots of these ways, and one very easy example is simply turning televisions off; so if you can turn a television off in a public place people actually realise – and I’ve experimented doing this in public places – people suddenly come back to their senses!

They were blindly watching this screen churning out adverts, and the TV went off - and I’ve got a remote control device that actually does this – and suddenly they’re looking around going “Oh!” and then they go back to their normal lives. But there’s lots more of these things: you could subvertise advertising billboards, so writing things on billboards that actually go counter to the messages the advertisers want you to do.

You could send out fake press releases as a company representative, actually giving the truth about what the company are doing. So, “PRESS RELEASE: So-and-so company admits to environmental mismanagement.” Well, of course, the company wouldn’t do that but if you manage to do it and you make it look convincing enough then you’ve undermined that company. But there are dozens and dozens of these things, and I think they’re only limited by the imagination.

AS: If I understand you correctly, a few people can start a trend that radiates into much bigger things. You speak of the power of Pioneers and Early Adopters; tell us about that.

KF: The idea of stratifying society, for want of a better term...it’s really something that you see all the time: the concept is called Diffusion of Innovations and it’s just one of the ideas that I touch upon, but it’s...you’re always going to have these Pioneers, you’re going to have people that take up an idea and they don’t just agree with the idea, they actually act on it.

So there are an awful lot of people out there – a surprising number of people – who are really taking the bit between their teeth and starting to live in ways that are far closer to the way that humanity was meant to live.

And there are other people who are a bit further up, they are a bit further on the timescale and it’s a larger chunk of people – these Early Adopters – and they may be influenced by these Pioneers because they might be in the same peer group or the same social group, and so they’re more likely to change than had these Pioneers not been there.

And then you have the much larger chunks of people which are the bulk of society, the Early and the Late Majority and this is what you would probably call in America the Middle Classes, in Britain we call it Middle England: the people who the governments are always trying to appeal to. This is going to come much later, these kinds of changes, but it can’t happen unless these earlier groups start changing, I believe.

It’s a little bit more complicated than that because you also need these Connectors and Mavens and Salespeople, which people have read about in The Tipping Point; these things all fit together as does the Undermining. But you don’t actually need millions of people to be actively changing to create change. As long as the momentum gets started up and it’s done in the right way, then quite fundamental change can happen with just a few people.

AS: Suppose we hurry the process of crashing civilization; what do you picture happening next?

KF: It’s not a nice thing to think about, this idea of crashing civilization. There are various writers like James Kunstler, and Carolyn Baker who I mentioned, who are very much of the mindset that it’s going to happen anyway, and it’s going to happen soon; and, in fact, is happening as we speak.

Certainly with the economy we’ve seen a few of these effects, of what happens when a mismanaged economy collapses – and the people at the top continue to cream off what they want, but the people at the very bottom suffer the most.

This is a symptom of the kinds of things that are happening at the moment: this is crash. Oil crises are going to happen – I believe we’ve reached the oil peak; you’re going to have other kinds of peaks as well, you’re going to have peak gas, you’re going to have peak nuclear.

As the energy supplies run out then you’re going to get a strange situation which probably mimics what’s happened with the economy, whereby the people at the top get what they want, and the people right at the bottom suffer the most. And it’s the people who are economically at the bottom who, and particularly urban people, who do tend to suffer most when anything like this does happen.

I don’t think you can be too explicit about this: if you are in a situation when you’re going to suffer anyway, because of any of these crashes – and they are going to happen – then you’re the people who really need to gear yourselves up for this situation. Read authors like Sharon Astyk, who writes wonderfully about gearing yourself up for hard times, and try and get out of being so dependent on Industrial Civilization.

It’s not easy but there’s certain things you can do to simplify your life that can protect yourself against it. I don’t want to cause a destructive crash; I want to somehow get the situation where we’re in control of this slow downfall of civilization.

And I think that’s a much kinder way of going through the motions of a collapsing civilization than just having this shock, after shock, after shock which is going to happen as the economy, the energy, water and all these other things start crashing.

AS: Where can people find your blog if they want to follow up on this?

KF: Right, well I’ve got a website that’s got the whole book on, which is the unprinted version – that’s www.amatterofscale.com. I run something called The Earth Blog, which is www.theearthblog.org, and on this I publish various essays which, many of them have been extensions of what I’ve written. And there’s also a site called The Unsuitablog - that’s just www.unsuitablog.com - and that’s starting to contain these ideas, these Undermining Tasks; it’s been about greenwashing up to now, but I think we’ve got to start getting a bit active, and start thinking about how to get round this system that tries to take everything away from us. The Unsuitablog’s going to get a bit edgy in the future, and that’s probably the one to keep an eye on.

AS: This is Radio Ecoshock with Alex Smith. We’ve been delving into deep green thought with one of Britain’s more controversial thinkers, Keith Farnish. He’s the author of the book, Time’s Up! An Uncivilized Solution to a Global Crisis, published by Green Books. Thank you so much, Keith.
KF: Thank you, Alex.



[Alex Smith continues with the same show, and helps his audience understand the political problem with the integrity of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:]
I attended two meetings via web casts this week.

One was a re-assessment of Copenhagen, and the way forward, from the British publisher Earthscan.
There I met David Satterthwaite, our radio guest next week. His recent work on the realities of human settlement, slums, and western consumerism - fits in perfectly with the new Worldwatch 2010 State of the World Report. I interview that report's project director, Erik Assadourian, as we ask "Is it them, or is it us?" Next week, on Radio Ecoshock.

My second web cast was provided by the Center for American Progress, and hosted by uber-blogger Joe Romm. His spot climateprogress.org really is the indispensable climate blog, as author and New York Times columnist Tom Friedman called it.

On the web cast, we got to hear from two top American scientists, who have helped organize IPCC reports: Dr. Michael MacCracken and Dr. Christopher Field. Dr. MacCracken has been a Radio Ecoshock guest.

I'm not going to lie to you. At time the web cast was timid to boring, as the two scientists were so careful about the limits of the IPCC process. You had to re-interpret wonk speak, to realize this Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is not really up to the task of warning the world about the real threat.

Why not? Let me count just a few reasons.

One: the whole pile of summaries, the things you, and I, and politicians actually read, must be agreed to, line-by-line, by each and every government in the world. That means, for example, Saudi Arabia, the giant oil producer who denies climate change, has to sign on. It's almost like having Dick Cheney approve everything the Obama administration does. Oh wait, it seems like that's happening in the Senate anyway.

Two: when incompetence, and possibly corruption in the case of grand-leader Pachauri show up, the IPCC has no agency to investigate, to correct the problem, or even to handle the press. Pachauri was involved with the unscientific and botched prediction about the Himalayan glaciers melting by 2030 - now shown to be contrary to the common knowledge of most glacier experts. A member of the team acknowledged they knew the information to be false.

Yet Pachauri helped get that wrong prediction into the report, and then personally profited from the panic by the Indian government. His company got fairly big money to find out more, about a problem with did not exist at the levels claimed.

It stinks of corruption, not a new idea at the United Nations. I've posted a list of Pachauri 's various businesses, and it's a long list, in my blog for this week. He should resign.

Here is an article which claims a direct conflict of interest for Dr. Pachauri , when it comes to carbon trading.

The same blog goes into detail about Pachauri 's business holdings and roles. It doesn't look good.
And let's not forget that Pachauri is essentially President George W. Bush's man. Bush objected to Robert Watson heading the IPCC, and pushed for Pachauri instead. Another very bad sign.

None of this was mentioned by the upright scientists at the American Progress web cast. They admit a major mistake was made, but don't criticize either the man, or the system that let him get away with it. Pitiful.

Three: there are a lot of things that science simply can't address, that matter a lot. For example, when the assembled scientists realized they didn't know how to predict Arctic ice melt, they just left that out of the calculations of sea level rise. So their prediction of a few millimeters rise by 2100 was laughable.

There's a lot more unknown unknowns, including public panic, climate wars, and climate trauma, and mass migration, just to name a few. Those demons are outside the realm of science, but definitely part of what we need to understand, or at least plan out with the best guesses.

Four: the IPCC is always 5 years behind current science. And why do we only report every five years, on a problem that suggests we only have ten years left to act, if that, before Nature takes over control of the greenhouse? We need a permanent climate war room, or rather a peace room.

Five: experience with past reports shows, the IPCC always underestimates both the urgency, and the severity of the impacts of climate disruption.

I run a couple of the best clips from the web cast, which you can see in full here.
In our first radio clip, Dr. Christopher Field echoes, almost exactly, the theory we heard in our first interview, with Tim Garrett. Carbon equals wealth.

Then Field adds to a list of climate change impacts, already begun by Michael MacCracken.
And finally, Dr. Michael MacCracken expands on everyone's nightmare, melting permafrost.
Still, it was a worthwhile web cast by the Center for American Progress, February 2nd, 2020. My thanks to Joe Romm, super-climate blogger at climateprogress.org, for at least trying to keep it lively.

Most of the talk about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, was diplomatic - and disappointing.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and in fact the whole U.N. system for negotiations, isn't working. If anything, it's working against us.

Frankly, we need a new public body to measure and predict the climate threat in real time. Let scientists say what they can prove, without censorship from Saudi Arabia, George Bush, or whoever.

Maybe it can all be built as a knowledge machine on the Internet. Heaven knows who will fund and control it. Maybe some billionaire will care enough about the future to fund it, and let it go, without strings. Maybe we can find a few honest women and men?

Something has to change, or we are toast.

Can the public stomach the awful truth? Or, will we go down in a sea of denial and business-as-usual?

It's almost to the point, where the danger to the world as we know it, might matter as much as the Toyota recall, or who won the Oscars. I know that's a big claim, but that's the way I see it.
The Radio Ecoshock website is ecoshock.org.

The Empathic Civilization

SUBHEAD: For 200 years the "American Dream" served as our national goal. Is it time to replace it? Image above: The death of the American Dream crystallized in a foreclosure in Merced, California in 2008. Photo by Brian Smith (http://briansmith.com/blog/2009/05/wpa) By Jeremy Rifkin on 23 February 2010 in The Huffington Post - (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeremy-rifkin/empathic-civilization-is_b_469546.html)

For two hundred years the American Dream has served as the bedrock foundation of the American way of life. The dream, reduced to its essence, is that in America, every person has the right and opportunity to pursue his or her own individual material self interest in the marketplace, and make something of their life, or at least sacrifice so the next generation might enjoy a better life.

The role of the government, in turn, is to guarantee individual freedom, assure the proper functioning of the market, protect property rights, and look out for national security. In all other matters, the government is expected to step aside so that a nation of free men and woman can pursue their individual ambitions.

Although American history is peppered with lamentations about the souring of the dream, the criticism never extends to the assumptions that underlie the dream, but only to political, economic and social forces that thwart its realization. To suggest that the dream itself is misguided, outdated, and even damaging to the American psyche, would be considered almost treasonous. Yet, I would like to suggest just that.

The American Dream was spawned in the afterglow of the Enlightenment more than two centuries ago, at the dawn of the modern market economy and nation-state era. Enlightenment philosophers painted a new picture of human nature more in line with the new market forces that were promising a qualitative uplift in the standard of living of human beings.

For 1500 years, during the feudal and medieval periods, the Church's dark view of human nature prevailed. Christian theologians exclaimed that babies are born depraved and in sin, and that personal salvation must await them in the next world with Christ. The Enlightenment philosophers views were a breath of fresh air, promising that market forces, if left unhindered by government, would guarantee every person the opportunity to improve his or her station in life.

John Locke, Adam Smith, René Descartes, Marquis de Condorcet and other Enlightenment sages were of the belief that human beings were, by nature, materialistic, self-interested, and driven by the biological urge to be propertied, autonomous, independent and self-sufficient, and sovereign over their own domain.

Today, that dream is still fiercely championed by libertarian ideologues and tea party populists. Their increasingly shrill defense of the American Dream, however, seems almost panic stricken in tone, suggesting a desperate effort to hold on to a belief that may, in fact, be passing away.

How else do we account for the fact that the public discourse is becoming so ugly of late? The populist backlash against big government represents more than just a clash over legislative priorities. The opposition to a government stimulus to jumpstart an ailing economy, the reluctance to adopt universal health care, and the growing denial of human induced climate change speak to a deeper sense of apprehension and foreboding.

Granted, there are legitimate concerns one might raise to each of these public policy issues. My sense however, is that there is something more profound taking place under the surface, a feeling, particularly among an older generation of Americans, that the American Dream is in jeopardy and, with it, our way of life.

After all, if the American Dream were really working, each person would be able to fend for him or herself in a self-regulating market and be without need of an economic stimulus package or universal healthcare.

The reality, however, is that nearly one out of five Americans are either unemployed, underemployed, or have given up looking for work all together, and millions of families are facing foreclosures in a land where home ownership has been regarded as the epitome of the American Dream. Climate change is particularly upsetting; it implies that the invisible hand of the marketplace is both an enabler of global warming and incapable of addressing it without government intervention.

When we consider these big picture policy issues, what becomes clear, if we bother to read between the lines, is that our long held beliefs about human nature, and by extension, the institutions we have created to express those beliefs, played no small role in precipitating the very crisis that now faces the country.

In a nation that has come to think of human nature as competitive, even predatory, self serving, acquisitive and utilitarian, is it any wonder that those very values have led to a "winner take all" syndrome in the marketplace in which the rich get richer while everyone else becomes marginalized, and the well-being of the larger community, including the biosphere, becomes eroded?

The US ranks 27th among industrialized countries, in income disparity -- the gap between the very rich and the very poor. Only Mexico, Turkey and Portugal, of the OECD nations, have greater disparity of income. Moreover, the US enjoys the dubious distinction of being one of the two leading contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions in the world. Could it be that the American Dream is becoming the American nightmare?

Interestingly, a younger generation of Americans is growing up in a very different world than the one described by the Enlightenment thinkers. Their reality is being lived out on a digital commons and in social spaces on the World Wide Web. All across America, our nation's teens are performing hundreds of hours of community service as part of their formal educational requirements. In school, they are learning that every activity they engage in -- the food they eat, the car they drive, the clothes they wear -- comes with a carbon footprint and affects the well-being of every other human being and fellow creature on Earth.

Today's youth are globally connected. They are Skyping in real time with their cohorts and friends on the far corners of the Earth. They are sharing information, knowledge, and mutual aid in cyberspace chat rooms, apparently unaware of the so called "tragedy of the commons." They have little regard for traditional property rights -- especially copyrights, trademarks, and patents -- believing information should run free. They are far more concerned with sharing access than protecting ownership. They think of themselves less as autonomous agents -- an island to oneself -- and more as actors in an ever shifting set of roles and relationships. Personal wealth, while still important, is not considered an endgame, but only a baseline consideration for enjoying a more immaterial existence, including more meaningful experiences in diverse communities.

Surveys show that the Millennial Generation in the United States is much more likely than older generations to feel empathy for others. They are far more concerned with the planetary environment and climate change and more likely to favor sustainable economic growth. They are also more likely to believe that government has a responsibility to take care of people who can't care for themselves, and are more supportive of a bigger role of government in providing basic services. They are more supportive of globalization and immigration than older generations.

They are also more racially diverse and the most tolerant of any generation in history in support of gender equality and the willingness to champion the rights of the disabled, gays, other minorities, as well as our fellow creatures. In short, they favor a world of inclusivity over exclusivity, and are more comfortable in distributed networks than in old fashioned centralized hierarchies that establish boundaries and restrictions separating people from one another.

The new sensibilities of the younger generation are beginning to usher in a different idea about human nature and the dream that accompanies it. Today's youth find little value in the Enlightenment caricature of human nature as rational, calculating, detached, and utilitarian. They prefer to think of human nature as empathic, mindful, engaged, and driven by the intrinsic value and interconnectedness of life.

Homo sapien is being eclipsed by homo empathicus, as they shift their horizon from national markets and nation-state borders to a global economy and a planetary community. Even their preferred indicators of economic progress are shifting, from the crude calculation of gross domestic product and per-capita income to more sensitive social indicators -- like health and longevity, social equality, safe communities, clean environment, etc. -- that measure the well-being of the broader community.

If we listen very closely, we can hear the whisper of a new dream in the making, one based on what youth around the world are beginning to call "quality of life". In this new world, the American Dream seems almost provincial, even quaint, and entirely unsuited for a generation that is beginning to extend its empathic sensibility beyond national identities, to include the whole of humanity and the entirety of the planet as their extended community. If the American Dream served as the gold standard for the era of national markets and nation-state governments, the dream of "quality of life" becomes the standard for the emerging biosphere era.

In this new, more expansive human setting, libertarian cries and tea party bravado suddenly seem far less significant. The assumptions about human nature and the meaning of the human journey that are bound up with the conventional American Dream, which motivate much of the current political brouhaha, are more like a faint echo of the past than a clarion call for the future. The empathic civilization looms on the horizon.

See also: Ea O Ka Aina: The Third Industrial Revolution 2/19/10 Island Breath: The American Dream Dies 8/30/07 Island Breath: The American Jet Ski Economy 10/21/07

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Kauai Hotel Occupancy Down

SUBHEAD: If — and only if — there is a quick economic turnaround, would it mean visitor arrivals would increase. Image above: The hideous Waipouli Beach Resort on the east coast of Kauai. From (http://www.waipoulibeachcondorentals.com/waipouli_beach_resort_c206) By Coco Zickos on 21 February 2010 in Carden Island News - (http://thegardenisland.com/business/local/article_688f75e8-1eb9-11df-aa97-001cc4c002e0.html) Hotel occupancy continued to slide in December 2009 to some 50 percent on Kaua‘i and averaged about 60 percent for the entire year, according to statistics released by Hospitality Advisors and Smith Travel Research earlier this week.

Calling 2009 a “tumultuous” year for hotels, Hospitality Advisors reported hotel revenues for the 50th state fell by $741 million during the year.

“Although the occupancy rate of 50 percent is alarming, it’s not unusual, especially during the economic environment we’re in,” Office of Economic Development Director George Costa said in an e-mail Friday. November and December typically signify some of the “lowest occupancy periods of the year.”

Kaua‘i has “experienced a cycle of very low and rebounding occupancies” within the past 30 years, including following Hurricane ‘Iwa in 1982 when hotel occupancy rates were also some 50 to 60 percent, Costa said.

This time, however, hotels are reportedly struggling to stay afloat, according to data from Hawai‘i real estate firm Colliers Monroe Friedlander.

Three resorts on island — ResortQuest Kaua‘i Beach at Maka‘iwa (now called Aston Kaua‘i Beach at Maka‘iwa), Aloha Beach Resort and Hilton Kaua‘i Beach Resort (now called Kaua‘i Beach Resort) — are either 60 days or more late on their mortgage payments or the lender has foreclosed upon the property and “taken back title,” said Colliers Monroe Friedlander Vice President and Division Manager Mark Bratton on Friday.

There are others heading in a similar direction, he said.

“It was so easy to borrow money two to three years ago and you could borrow quite a lot,” Bratton said. “Since room rates have gone the other way, they can’t service the debt.”

The situation is “happening more to hotels than any other groups of properties” because they are so reliant upon hotel room rates which fluctuate on a daily basis, he said. “They are all having trouble.”

“Hotels will have difficulty maintaining profitability or breaking even if occupancies remain at 50 to 60 percent or drop lower,” Costa said. “Depending on the owner’s financial reserves and their ability to draw on these, they may be able to stay in business for several years if all other factors remain constant.”

Costa cites a “main area of concern” to be the price of oil which has been steadily rising for more than a year now and settled at around $80 Friday. The prices will affect travel and the cost of doing business, he said.

“That’s why it’s even more important to develop renewable energy projects that will eventually help to lower the cost of electricity and that can be passed on to visitors in the way of affordable vacations, and residents in less to pay for basic services and have more disposable income,” he said.

While occupancy rates have dropped, the average price of a hotel room was actually higher in 2009 than in prior years on Kaua‘i. The average daily rate for 2009 was some $186, while rates for the month of December were around $200, according to Hospitality Advisors and Smith Travel Research. Average daily rates in 2004 were about $177 and $184 in 2005 when the economic tides had not yet turned.

“There’s no question that Kaua‘i is dependent on tourism,” Costa said. “It can be argued what the exact percentage is, but well over 50 percent of our economy either relies on or is affected by the visitor industry.”

The accommodations and food service sector of the industry employs about 24 percent of the Kaua‘i workforce alone, he added.

Economists are currently forecasting a “slow, gradual recovery” that could take at least two to three years, Costa said. If — and only if — there is a quick economic turnaround, “it would mean visitor arrivals would increase” and businesses could start rehiring employees who were laid off during 2008 and 2009, Costa said.

See also: Ea O Ka Aina: Hawaii Hotel Tourism Cratering 1/8/10

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Rehearsals for a Civil War

SUBHEAD: The progressives are doing everything possible to deny the deep tectonic changes thundering through our economic arrangements. Image above: Upscale iPodders flip-off angry teabaggers in mock iPod ad. From (http://s292.photobucket.com/albums/mm36/zulch/?action=view&current=ipod-teabag.jpg) By James Kunstler on 22 February 2010 on Kunstler.com - (http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/02/rehearsals-for-a-civil-war.html) Amid the general incoherence of the Tea Party rebels and the failure of progressives to recognize the structural changes underway in a peak oil world, lies a deadly swamp of paradox where all parties may drown in the quicksand of their own muddled intentions.
The Tea Party appeals to the swelling numbers of the new former middle class angry at the sudden vanishing of their accustomed perqs and entitlements to a predictably comfortable suburban existence. They're mad at the government and hot for "liberty." But how do they propose to maintain the hyper-complexities of suburban life without taxes to pay for fixing the countless roads their lives depend on or to run the gold-plated central school districts that seem to exist solely to provide Friday night football? As for liberty, a handful of despotic corporations from McDonalds to WalMart have been granted the liberty to destroy the Tea-bagger's bodies and the economic fabric of their communities -- and they seem to want more of that kind of liberty, based on the recent decision of a "conservative" majority on the Supreme Court allowing corporations to buy elections. The Tea-baggers also apparently crave the liberty to push other people around, especially on questions of abortion and religion. That's an interesting kind of freedom.
As more and more of them lose jobs and incomes, will they resent their government-issued extended unemployment benefits? I doubt that you'll see them burning their own checks in big public demonstrations the way the Vietnam War protesters burned their draft cards. And of course this also goes for the retiree Tea-baggers who show up at their Tea Parties to inveigh against the government -- except the agency that prints their social security checks, or the other one that pays for their liver transplants (while 40-million unretired, un-insured Americans under sixty-five get slammed with extortionary hospital bills for twenty-thousand dollar routine appendectomies that end up bankrupting them).
Meanwhile, the progressives led by President Obama are doing everything possible to deny the deep tectonic changes thundering through our economic arrangements. They have embarked on a campaign to sustain the unsustainable that will only aggravate and accelerate the more destructive effects of the historic changes underway. For instance, the financial crisis is nature's way of telling us that banking occupies too much space in our economy -- especially the "creative" kind of banking which thrives on innovations in fraud and swindles. Yet the progressives are shoveling the nation's accumulated savings (and way beyond that to earnings-not-yet-saved) into a handful of gigantic banks whose employees live in a separate universe of luxury, and the bail-outs only guarantee more financial mischief based on efforts to get something-for-nothing -- in the absence of an economy that turns capital investment into things of value.
Faced with the multiple threats of peak oil, the progressives are pounding billions into the automobile makers and shoveling tons of stimulus money into highway improvement projects, while the railroads we will desperately need in the future continue to be starved to death, and no effort is made to promote walkable communities -- including a federally-led reform of our insane zoning laws which mandate a suburban development outcome in every corner of the country.
Faced with the hangover of a housing bubble, the president's team has insidiously nationalized the racket and is doing everything possible to keep housing prices unrealistically inflated, so that nobody still lucky enough to have a median income can afford the median price of a house. Meanwhile, the agencies used to facilitate this accounting shell game -- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, etc. -- are choking on worthless mortgage contracts and generating ever more new toxic mortgage paper.
Then, there is the question of our military adventures half a world away in Afghanistan and Iraq, where both parties are unwilling to face the basic conundrum of what happens when our troops leave those places. Even if we stamp out the current Taliban leadership there are countless avid up-and-comers burning to take their places, and numberless mountain valleys for them to hide in. Al Qaeda, of course, exists mainly as an international computer network. Good luck stamping that out. And if it's oil we're after in Iraq, there are three main possibilities after the last US soldier packs out: one is the unlikely possibility that a competent Iraqi national oil company decides to dole out drilling licenses to "preferred" companies (don't hold your breath Exxon-Mobil); another is that Iraq cracks up into smaller ethnic units lacking the capital or coherence to get their oil out of the ground; and a third is that neighboring Iran comes to control the major oil-producing region around Basra. So, what's it all about, Alfie? -- besides squandering a trillion dollars we don't really have.
Homeland security? Neither party is serious about defending the borders or limiting immigration, and anyway there are "soft" targets beyond counting all over the USA and small arms galore available to get the job done. Three guys with automatic rifles set loose in the Mall of America would be enough to push the retail sector over the edge into oblivion, taking with it the commercial real estate market and all the banks involved in financing it -- in short, destroying the tattered remains of the so-called "consumer economy."
My own guess about where this all leads is in the direction of more anger and incoherence by all parties involved -- which will itself generate yet more anger in a spiraling centrifugal feedback loop that could eventually tear this nation apart. It will be instructive to see how some of these forces play out in the Health Care Reform "summit" that President Obama has called for this week. The Republicans will be rope-a-doped into the uncomfortable position of trying to explain why they have no ideas whatsoever about fixing the hopelessly cruel and unjust medical system that everybody except government employees suffers under. The Democrats will be juked into the equally unhappy position of explaining how a bankrupt US Treasury pays for a more equitable system -- and the insurance companies will sit smirkingly on the sidelines watching both parties fail to address the necessary severe disciplining of the insurance racket.
In the background of even these momentous deliberations, the foundations of capital creak and shatter, the stock market infarcts and the bond market fibrillates, and all the accounting tricks ever dreamed of in the fantasies of Harvard MBAs and MIT math PhDs, and all the newly-evolved species of grifters and shysters who pull the levers of the system will not avail to hold back our inexorable journey into new circumstances that will really determine the outcome of these predicaments.
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Peak Demand Thesis

SUBHEAD: Cornucopians reach for the fig leaf to cover their asses when the verdict on peak finally comes in. Image above: Illusatration showing Peak Oil ending with regular gas at $120 a gallon. From (http://savethehumans.typepad.com/weblog/2008/11/its-official--.html) By Kurt Cobb on 21 February 2010 in Resource Insights - (http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2010/02/peak-demand-cornucopians-reach-for-fig.html)

The world's oil supply optimists must feel as if they are in that dream that so many of us have had about arriving at work in our underwear. Oops! What do I do now to save face? Over the past decade oil optimists repeatedly forecast a glut in oil supplies that kept failing to materialize. Now, they are reaching for a fig leaf hoping no one will remember their consistently errant predictions. That fig leaf is the idea that we have reached peak demand, and that that's the reason we have not seen oil production rise in the past several years. Strangely, they made no mention of this theory in 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008 as prices skyrocketed. It was only after the market crashed and a deep worldwide recession ensued--something which would be expected to curtail oil demand--that they formulated the Peak Demand thesis. Arch-cornucopian Daniel Yergin, who kept calling for mushrooming oil supplies throughout the last decade, now tells us that flat production is really the consequence of peak oil demand. Developed nations will from this day forward require no greater quantities of oil. He does acknowledge that demand may grow in China in the years to come. His firm, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), is on record suggesting that oil production capacity will likely grow 25 percent from now through 2030. But the forecast is later hedged with this statement:

“So much will happen between now and 2030 to affect demand—from changes in the automobile engine and the electric battery to changes in demographics and values,” says [CERA senior director Peter] Jackson. “Peak Demand may ultimately prove to be the main driver of long-term supply.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also jumped on the Peak Demand bandwagon. Fatih Birol, chief economist for the IEA, told Reuters, "When we look at the OECD countries--the U.S., Europe and Japan--I think the level of demand that we have seen in 2006 and 2007, we will never see again." To be fair Birol has been sounding the alarm about oil dependence and suggesting that the world "leave oil before it leaves us." And, he has indicated that peak might come as early as 2020. Perhaps Birol is hedging his bets even further sensing that production may rise little if any from here. A recent entrant into the Peak Demand sweepstakes is Saudi Arabia. Always publicly confident about its ability to produce vastly more oil for decades to come, it is noteworthy that the desert kingdom is now announcing that Peak Demand may be here. This comes not too long after the country announced plans to use carbon dioxide injection in the world's most prolific oilfield, Ghawar.

The Saudis insist they are doing this as a public service to help spread the technology of carbon sequestration. But this type of injection is only used in fields that are in decline and for which other methods such as waterflooding are no longer sufficient to maintain production. If world demand can be said to have peaked, then perhaps the Saudis will have a perpetual excuse for why they aren't producing more oil--not because they can't, but because the world doesn't demand it. One has only to make a superficial analysis of such claims to see that they amount to nothing more than sleight of hand. First, every economist knows that supply and demand are always equal and that it is price that makes them so. Ergo, technically speaking if demand has peaked so has supply. It is a tacit admission that Peak Oil is upon us. Now, if what these people mean is that oil supply capacity could grow, but won't because we won't need it, then one must ask the complicated question of why people won't need it. Is it because the economy has been so decimated by a debt-fueled crash aggravated by high oil and other resource prices that it cannot grow? Is it simply because people across the globe on average don't feel that they need to use more oil despite the fact that population continues to grow? Some claim that energy efficiency and the growing production of alternative fuels will depress oil demand. But no one was saying this before the crash. Why has it suddenly become relevant? Did we just discover energy efficiency and alternative fuels? It is a truism that no one knows whether the world has reached Peak Oil or will reach it soon. We'll only know many years after it occurs. But the rush to announce that peak demand has arrived seems to be nothing more than an attempt to put a happy face on Peak Oil. No matter what the reason, if world oil production has peaked, we are all in serious trouble. Peak means decline won't be very far away. Peak means economic recovery, let alone robust growth, may be all but impossible. Of course, we could try to run the world economy on other fuels such as natural gas and coal. But we have not prepared our infrastructure to do so, and such preparations are measured in decades, not years. Besides, there are serious questions about the longevity of these fuels as well, especially if we vastly ramp up their consumption. The announcement of Peak Demand then is really designed to allow all those who made faulty oil production forecasts to keep selling their sunny optimism about future energy supplies while covering their asses for when the verdict on peak finally comes in. What the purveyors of the Peak Demand Thesis really need to do is find some clothes to put on over their dream-time underwear and get to work figuring out where they went wrong in their analyses of oil supplies.

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Marijuana or Gambling?

SUBHEAD: Why the state of Hawaii should legalize marijuana and not gambling.

By Amy Westervelt on 19 February 2010 in the Faster Times -  
(http://thefastertimes.com/travelnews/2010/02/19/why-hawaii-should-legalize-pot-instead-of-gambling)

 
Image above: Some wicked looking purple herb found at http://hiphappy.wordpress.com/2008/08/14/marijuana-cash-crop

 [Editors note: Thanks to Larry Geller at Disappeared News for discovering this article.] 

So, in order to pay some of its debt and generate some income, Hawaii is talking about legalizing gambling. Yeah, good one, Hawaii. Best not to develop any industry that isn’t wholly dependent on tourists.

Instead, I say that the Aloha state should combine its fledgling local-farm trend with its widely known penchant for all things mellow. Hawaii should legalize weed. (God, I hope my mother doesn’t read this. Mom, Dad, readers, I say this not because I think pot’s cool, but because I think it is lucrative.) But there it is. A smart financial decision that could actually save America’s favorite vacation island chain.


Still, I’m not the only one with the idea. Plenty of business reporters have already gone into great detail about why it would make good business sense for the state of California to legalize ganja: The state is bankrupt, and if pot were taxed, Cali would climb out of debt, stat. There’s already a network of medical marijuana clinics in California; a regulated industry would make quality and content uniform, and cut down on violence and the destruction of national forest and parkland, where people love to hide pot farms. And Obama already quietly erased a Bush-era regulation that required the federal crack-down on state-approved marijuana businesses. (Although LA’s recent crackdown on new dispensaries by its mayor may prove to be a little obstacle.)

But Hawaii’s looking at legalizing another currently-illegal activity — gambling — instead. For a lot of people this seems like a good compromise. Gambling is more acceptable. It doesn’t cause addiction (oh wait, it does!), or lead people to other harder drugs (oh wait, it can!), or suck up all of people’s time so they don’t do anything productive … you can see where I’m going here: I’m not interested in seriously arguing that pot-smoking is somehow better than gambling; I’m talking dollars and sense, and what’s best for the already-trampled people of Hawaii.

It’s a question of resources, too. On the pot front, let’s be honest, the crops already exist in Hawaii, so there would likely be little increase in the amount of resources needed — in terms of water and energy — to support a legal marijuana industry. Certainly no giant new buildings need to be built and operated.

A new casino industry, on the other hand, would put a major burden on the island state’s already severely stretched resources. Limited resources should be a concept easily grasped on an island.

Then there’s the cultural aspect. There are precious few jobs in Hawaii that don’t rely on tourism, and that creates both a relatively unstable economy (see the billion-dollar deficit) and an unhappy citizenry. Many native Hawaiians already feel like their land was taken from them illegally, and over the past few decades they have slowly been squeezed off the property ladder by snowbirds from Ottawa and Washington who want a piece of paradise.

On the Big Island, it’s not uncommon for people to live on the east side of the island and commute up to an hour or two to get to work at the resorts on the west side, simply because they can’t afford to live closer. And then these people are asked every day to wait on the very tourists and transplants who took their land. It’s easy to see why there’s tension between locals and howlies. If the government were to stimulate growth of a non-tourism-based industry it could help address both problems. Granted, if that industry is weed, it probably won’t stimulate the ambition needed to start other non-tourism-related industries, but that’s another issue.

To be fair, the state has been trying to stimulate other types of economic activity. A couple of big algae-to-fuel projects are underway there, and restaurants on the island are working to stimulate a local farming industry. But in general, the state is focused on tourism dollars, and often goes for the quick fix to the detriment of its long-term sustainability. This time, Hawaii, do us all one better: Say no to casinos. Don’t make another short-sighted mistake and turn your entire state into an Indian Reservation with a beach.

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Do You Have to Grow Food?

SUBHEAD: Hunger will begin for many of us as a slow grind, wearing us down, and we will find ourselves more and more in need of our gardens. Image above: Detail from "War Garden for Victory" WW2 era poster encouraging home food production. From (http://www.1776mag.com/7-victory-garden-posters) By Sharon Astyk on 21 February 2010 in Casaubon's Book - (http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2010/02/do_you_need_to_grow_food.php)

Because of the enormous impact of agriculture on climate change, pick up any book about "green" solutions and you'll find the suggestions that you grow a vegetable garden. Bang into the "we can't go on as we are" end of the environmental movement (mine), and you'll see the general assumption that growing food is part of any process of adaptation to lower resource use.

This often then morphs into the assumption that all of us should be able to grow all of our food, or a vast majority of it - that sustainability means the country life for everyone. You might think that because I do produce a vast majority of my food, and because I wrote a book advocating for millions of additional farmers, I might fall into this category. In fact, I don't. At least in the short term, I think those farmers will mostly be amateurs, farming very small plots indeed, often land they don't own, rather than full-time professionals.

I think there will be no substitute for being involved with your food and your food system, and I think that for many people, food growing provides a measure of security not available even through sustainable purchasing from local farmers, but I don't believe that means that all of us are going, as the song goes, "Get behind the mule in the morning and plow." Indeed, I think the majority of local food production will probably occur on small scales in urban and suburban areas, by people who either previously owned their land, before the present crisis, or by those who do not own land. The "move to the country and buy land' model is unlikely to dominate the future.

(John Hammond Gets Behind the Mule, Awesomely)

Does that mean that I agree with Toby Hemenway that food is "the last thing to worry about?" I know Hemenway isn't trying to discourage gardening (after all, he's the author of _Gaia's Garden_, one of the single best gardening books ever written) , but attempting to add a degree of balance to what is often an overheated debate. I tend to agree with him that people respond to gardening and backyard small livestock by thinking "I can do that!" and thus tend to focus on this, often to the exclusion of things that need just as much attention, like health care or finance. I think this larger point is absolutely on target. Hemenway writes:

Yet in the developed world, especially the breadbasket nations such as the US, Canada, and other food-exporting countries, the food network may be one of the last systems to fail during energy descent. In developing a wise post-Peak strategy, assessing relative risks is critical. Devoting large amounts of time and resources to events that are less likely leaves us unprepared for more probable difficulties. I don't want to discourage anyone from growing food--I'm a serious gardener myself and could list dozens of excellent reasons for doing it. But I think there are many reasons not to be focusing primarily on food as the system most likely to fail. This isn't to say that industrial, oil-based agriculture is invulnerable, let alone sustainable. And we may see temporary shortages of specific foods. But there are many reasons why our fears of a food collapse--particularly when they lead us to a go-it-alone, grow-your-own response--may be distracting us from focusing on more immediate and likely risks.

First, two notes of clarification: This article is about net food-exporting nations such as the US, where I live. In the less-developed world, where food growing has been abandoned for export crops that are sold for cash to import commodity food, the food system is far more vulnerable. And by "food collapse" I mean a prolonged inability to produce essential foods, not brief or local shortages of certain items, or high prices while supplies are ample. Volatile commodities markets, weather, and the other gyrations of our uncertain era mean that temporary or local shortages can always occur.

Food gets a lot of attention in part because we need it to survive, but also because one solution to a food crisis--growing your own--seems doable. I suspect we focus on food in part because providing it appears much more possible than, say, keeping the financial, health care, or automotive industries running.

That said, I have some disagreements about how Hemenway frames the discussion - I think his focus on "food collapse" as the reasoning behind growing food misses the central point - that most hunger doesn't occur because of a food collapse, it occurs because people can't afford to buy food. This is an easy one to miss - many people, learning about peak oil and climate change become fixated on the idea of transportatioin or other system disruptions that cut food supplies. And this is possible - indeed, when food and gas costs rose to their highest point in 2008, end-of-supply-line regions like Alaskan Native Villages found themselves struggling to get supplies in. But the vast majority of the world's hungry live in places where there is sufficient food - but they can't buy it. It is credible, then, to assume that at least in the shorter term, our collective crisis is likely to play out as it has in the past - with more and more people unable to keep food on the table.

Just as I've argued for some years that the most likely reason for any of my readers to have to live without heat or utilities is because growing poverty makes it impossible for them to pay utility bills, and thus, they get shut off or because they become homeless, the most likely reason for anyone reading this to encounter a food crisis is because of a growing poverty. And in both the Global North and South, this is the norm of hunger. As Amartya Sen has documented, most hunger and starvation worldwide occur in nations with adequate food tor their populations - the central problems are of equity and distribution.

This is obviously the pattern occurring in the United States. We are seeing a steady rise in hunger - how much is hard to establish. We know that food stamps are at their highest level of use ever - that one in nine American households, and one in four American children now needs food stamps. But that doesn't tell the whole story - food stamps are a fairly good measure of food insecurity, in which people don't know whether there will always be food or not, but not of hunger. But statistics on hunger are hard to collect. We know that it is rising rapidly - that food pantries in regions are seeing tripling and quadrupling of needs. We know the situations are more dire, and more acute. But again, this can't tell the whole story - there are families in crisis who do receive food stamps. Many agencies don't track information about demand or recipients, because they either lack the capacity or fear to drive them away.

Moreover, as Professors Sharon Panter and Karl Smith write in the News and Observer, measuring recipients of food aid the US doesn't give you an accurate picture of the need for food aid:

We have been tracking the history of food assistance in central and Eastern North Carolina. After five years of research, it is clear that nonprofit food assistance is a supply-driven good. That is, usage has increased primarily as a function of capacity of supply, not of increases in demand.

In traditional markets, businesses increase supply in order to meet demand. If you want to buy a box of your favorite cereal, it's rare that you would walk into your local supermarket and find it missing from the shelves. As a result, if 2,000 boxes of cereal are sold at a given store, researchers and government officials can confidently say that this represents the demand for cereal at that location.

At nonprofit food assistance centers, however, the demand is rarely if ever met. As a result, it's impossible to use food distributed as a measure of demand. The true demand far exceeds what it is ever given out. Statistics that use food distributed are consistently underestimating the need.

Two examples illustrate this pattern. Monthly client records for a small pantry in rural North Carolina show a steady number of clients for years - about 35 people each week. When we visited to observe the pantry in action, a volunteer counted up to 35 people and then closed the door. That was all the pantry could support. No other people were helped until the next week. That pattern repeats every time the door is opened.

In Eastern North Carolina, emergency pantries were opened in several towns in response to Hurricane Floyd in 1999. They have never closed. One now reports feeding up to 500 people a week.

Like many small community nonprofits, food pantries have been constrained by lack of trained staff, computers, space and equipment, but they are facing a much larger problem: lack of product. They are running out of food to give away, on a national scale.

The rise of hunger in the US in the last few years is astonishing - and it is occurring in times of wild food surplus. There are no shortages in the US, and yet, people are going hungry. As seen in the previous article, food stamps are not a simple solution - with the gutting of other social welfare programs, food stamps are often the only source of supplemental income the very poor have, and often don't go for food. Many of the working poor don't get food stamps, or receive them minimally.

Americans spend less on food than almost any other national population in the world, so hunger in the US often doesn't make sense to people - why aren't we at least buying food? The answer is that food is generally a somewhat fungible expense for people, while things like housing, medications and transportation are not always. Consider a working-poor single parent household with a job. They live in one area, and the job is 45 minutes away by car, in an area where there is no public transportation (the norm). The job has no standard shifts, like much low paying employment, which makes it nearly impossible to provide stable childcare - if you have to be at work at 4 am one day and until 10pm the next this is impossible.

The largest fixed expenses are housing and transportation - usually a car loan and disproportionately high rent or mortgage. It would be easy to say that people should abandon their car and get a job somewhere else - but this is often not viable. It would be easy to say they should move to a lower cost area, but they are often pinned by family obligations, employment, or even the inability to produce first months and last months rent. Incomes are often unstable, and depend on whether overtime is offered or not. Most of the jobs have no benefits, so a single illness or a car breakdown and a sudden expense is enough to force families to move into the few areas of their lives that are fungible - and food is the big fungible expense.

Now I realize that some of my readers will point out that the poor often make poor choices - this is absolutely true. The rich do too - but they are not penalized for their inability to cook or their deciding to buy a luxury item before they realized that there would be no overtime that month. Moreover, I think it is safe to say that as more of us become poor, more or us will make some bad choices too. Many of us have already, and may be asked to pay a high price for them. In fact, in the case of the poor, those paying the biggest prices are generally those who have choices at all - children.

I think it is fair to say, however, that we can expect patterns of increasing hunger and food insecurity to increase even among people in net-food-exporting nations that would never have thought they too could be hungry. We can say this because it has been happening - and occurring quite dramatically. Those most immediately affected will be those who have always lived closest to the margins of food insecurity, or who were already food insecure - the rural, urban and suburban (there are now more poor people living in the suburbs than in cities in the US) poor and working class.

These people will not, generally speaking, be "getting land" - credit has already tightened dramatically for low income people, and they also rely heavily on the informal economy to support them already - including community networks and existing family and social structures. Most of the poor can't afford a mortgage, they can't afford first and last and security to move, they can't move away from their sister who watches the kids while they work third shift, they can't move to a new city where they don't know anyone who can help translate, they can't afford to move to a place where there are no bus lines.... Some may be pushed into rural areas because of low cost of living, and a few will choose to relocate there, but most of the US poor have fairly limited mobility, and won't be buying land to grow all their food anytime soon.

Meanwhile, for those of us in the middle class, there is likely to be a gradual decline in wealth and security - a slide from two incomes to one plus unemployment, then one plus nothing, the erosion of benefits, pay cuts (in the Great Depression real earnings fell by more than 40%, so that even the 75% of the working population that still had a job was earning dramatically less), etc... Some will join the abjectly poor, but that's likely to be a more gradual process. What we will see is a great deal more instability.

If the US were to shift its focus from bailing out the financial community to providing for the basic needs of the most vulnerable, and if programs like food stamps and unemployment benefit extensions could continue expanding indefinitely, we would still see real and serious hunger in the US. The odds are, however, that they will not. Most American state unemployment funds are functionally bankrupt, relying on federal subsidies to keep them paying out. States are already slashing aid to education, social welfare programs and support programs for children, the elderly and the disabled.

The question becomes how much can and will the federal government do? It is certainly in the interest of the US government to keep food riots down - but we've seen in recent posts the way that American attitudes towards the poor pit them against one another, and naturalize a hatred and fear of the poor - in order for there to be riots, large numbers of hungry Americans would have to achieve some kind of solidarity with one another. With plenty of affluent people testing to see how well a rich person with a car, house and plenty of person hygeine items and gas in the tank can survive on programs like food stamps reassuring us that the food stamps budget is more than plenty for the poor, it seems like there's more fuel for this fire. If we view the present as an experiment in how many people can go hungry or food insecure before anyone recognizes a fundamental social failure, the answer seems to be "a lot."

What we do know is that the subsidies are insufficient for a majority of people who live on them. The high costs of housing and health care mean that even those receiving maximum subsidies are often struggling just to get along.

Moreover, there are real questions about how long governments in the Global North will be able to keep up their subsidies. We know that tax revenues have declined substantially, and that local and state governments are increasingly overwhelmed - and turning to the Federal Government. We know there are signs, like the announcement that Britain is in as shaky financial a situation as Greece, that governments in the North are having a tough time holding on. The structure of neo-liberal capitalist economies has been to focus on "growing the economy" rather than providing supports for its people - that pattern seems unlikely to change in the short term without a great shift in social values.

All of which leads us to this conclusion - that the places where hunger is likely to be most prevalent in the near term, where people most need more food, and better nutrition, are among people least able to go out and buy land and move to the country. This pretty much supports what I've been saying for many years, that "we most need to grow food where people already are." For rural dwellers, many of whom are land rich but poor in most other respects (although not all own land), the answer is a new way of viewing the land they own - after decades of farming not paying, it may start - not well, but enough to keep people off the margins.

We're often dismissive, however, of suburban and urban agriculture. How can someone's windowbox, their community garden plot, their rooftop garden or their 30x20 backyard really make a difference in food security? But in fact, we know that in much of the world, urban and suburban food growing makes an enormous difference in food security. For people in cities and the suburbs, the answer is not "get land" but "make the best possible use of what you have." The aggregate of urban and suburban systems that integrate food production into local systems is potentially substantial - no, they will not entirely feed themselves. But at least at present, that's not what's required - what's required is that we make a critical difference in household food security - and city and suburban gardens can do that.

How do we know? Because growing food has been doing that for poor people for a very long time. In Lusaka, among poor and landless households, as A.W. Drescher shows in his article "Urban agriculture in the Seasonal Tropics", households that garden, usually on land they do not own, often by squatting, show substantially better nutrition by every measure, while also producing more food per acre, and using water more sparingly than agricultural production in the surrounding countryside. In Moscow, during the collapse of the Soviet Union, 65 percent of economically struggling households grew food. In Kampala, a UN report on urban agriculture found that children in families that grew food crops were as healthy as far wealthier families, according to _Urban Agriculture: Food, Jobs, Sustainable Cities_ by Jac Smit, Annu Ratta and Joe Nasr.

Ninety percent of produce grown in China in the early 1990s was grown within cities. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, up to 20% of all calories consumed are produced in cities. in 1981, Hong Kong had 5 million people and 1,060 km2, and was using 10% of that land to produce 45% of the fresh vegetables, 15% of the pigs and 68% of the live chickens eaten in the city, according to I. Wade's essay "Fertile Cities." In 2002, the city had 6.3 million people in it, and had seen much of its good land developed (for example, between 1981 and 2000, all rice farming, even on the outer islands, ceased) but they were still producing 33% of the produce, 14% of the pigs, 36% of the chickens and farming 20% of the fish consumed within the city. The animals were raised for the most part on 160,000 *tons* annually of food waste were being recycled into meat and egg production.

We know that small scale gardening can make a critical difference for the poor - both the chronically poor and the newly-becoming poor. The difference is not that it magically provides all food, but that it provides access to high value, high protein and high nutrition food stuffs that are expensive or hard to access in rural and urban "food deserts." They allow poor people to turn low-cost resources like seeds into high cost items like healthy food. They also allow people to turn food wastes into high quality protein, if combined with small scale animal husbandry. Because gardening can often be done almost entirely outside the cash economy, it is particularly valuable for those with minimal or tied up cash incomes, who have little leeway.

Just as importantly, community gardens and other local food production exercises have political implications as well - they tie communities together in ways that other activities don't seem to. In a fascinating study by SUNY Albany Professor Donna Armstrong, she finds,

The most commonly expressed reasons for participating in gardens were access to fresh foods, to enjoy nature, and health benefits. Gardens in low-income neighborhoods (46%) were four times as likely as non low-income gardens to lead to other issues in the neighborhood being addressed; reportedly due to organizing facilitated through the community gardens

This mirrors what urban dwellers in places as diverse as Zimbabwe, Russia and China report - that the value of gardening is that it is never a wholly private activity, but one with profound communal, political and social implications.

It would be easily to trivialize the impact of small gardens in suburbs and cities - but their aggregate is enormous. As Michael W. Hamm and Monique Baron write in their case study "Developing an Integrated, Sustainable, Urban Food System: The Case of New Jersey, United States" published in _For Hunger-Proof Cities_ ed. Koc, MacRae, Mugeot and Welsh, the entire produce needs of residents of New Jersey could be met by large numbers of small household gardens or by new acreage brought into production, but given the high level of development, the small household garden model might be more feasible.

There may come a time when we face immediate, pressing and absolute shortages of food, but we aren't there yet, and that doesn't seem to be the most pressing reality for most of us. What's more likely is that we will struggle economically to buy food, be pressed into purchasing it at unaffordable prices due to lack of good access, and be forced to take money out of our food budgets and put it to meeting other needs. What's most likely is that hunger will begin for many of us (has begun for many of us) as a slow grind, wearing us down, and as safety net after safety net begins to slip, we will find ourselves more and more in need of our gardens - and every other mechanism we have to support ourselves.

Do you have to grow food? No, and some people never will, from lack of ability or because they are doing other, equally important work. But for most us, the world is no respecter of persons or importance. I would say you do not have to grow food as long as you have faith that you yourself will never become poor - will never lose your job, never struggle to make ends meet, never through the increasingly shaky safety nets. But that is, of course, precisely the most likely thing to happen to all of us in the near term of our ecological crisis. Most of us fear that outcome, often fear it so much that we deny that it could happen to us - and thus deny ourselves a chance to learn useful lessons from the 85% of the world population who has already navigated this territory before us, who have already shown us the deep urgency of growing what we can.

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