USGS info on Kilauea Volcano

SUBHEAD: How much danger is there of massive tsunami caused by collapse of East Rift Zone area?

By Staff on 28 June 2018 for United States Geological Survey -
(https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/)


Image above: Photo from south of Puna as Kilauea volcano lava enters Pacific Ocean causing clouds of steam and vog. From (https://www.inverse.com/article/46466-kilauea-volcano-ocean-entry-deemed-hazardous-as-dangerous-laze-persists).

[IB Publisher's note: There is a wide range of opinions about the danger imposed by current volcanic activity on the Big Island of Hawaii. Some fear the risks are being minimized to keep people calm and not scare tourists away. Some even fear a catastrophe of biblical proportions is imminent. Below are recent reports by the United States Geological Survey. They may be hiding the truth to allay a panic. But they, more than any other source, have the real data. Here are some of their recent reports to the public.]

Answers to Questions about Kīlauea Volcano's earthquakes
June 28, 2018

The summit area of Kīlauea Volcano has undergone significant changes since April 2018. On April 21, the lava lake within Halema‘uma‘u overflowed onto the crater floor as the volcano's magmatic system pressurized.

On April 30, the floor of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō crater collapsed, as subsurface pressure forced open a pathway for magma to travel from Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō into the lower East Rift Zone. As magma moved into the lower East Rift Zone, pressure decreased in the summit's magmatic system and the lava lake level began to drop. The summit also started to deflate due to the pressure decrease.

As summit deflation (or subsidence) persisted, the number of earthquakes increased. Prior to the onset of deflation, about 10 earthquakes per day were typical at the summit. As of late June 2018, there are about 600 earthquakes located in the same region on a daily basis. Many of these earthquakes are strong enough to be felt, and some can be damaging.

These earthquakes are understandably causing concern, especially in Volcano Village and surrounding subdivisions. These Frequently Asked Questions about Kīlauea Volcano's Summit Earthquakes will help answer some of the most commonly asked questions about the nature of Kīlauea's summit activity, and the numerous earthquakes that are occurring in the area.

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Saying "goodbye" to one GPS station and "hello" to two more
June 25, 2018

On June 18, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory staff said a sad goodbye to a GPS instrument that had faithfully recorded over 95 m (310 ft) of downward motion of the floor of Kīlauea caldera before losing radio contact. The GPS instrument, called NPIT, first started moving downward in early May at the onset of subsidence at Kīlauea's summit.

However on June 8, NPIT's motion picked up dramatically. This was when a portion of the caldera floor north of Halema'uma'u, where NPIT was located, began to slump into the crater. Over the next ten days NPIT GPS recorded down-dropping of 6-8 m (20-25 ft) with each summit explosion event, which have been occurring almost every day.

This, together with earlier displacements, added up to a position change of 95 m down, 55 m south, and 5 m east (310 ft, 180 ft, and 16 ft, respectively).

These data provide unique insight into the crater collapse process, showing us that it is occurring as a series of steps instead of as continuous motion. Drone and helicopter views confirm that NPIT is still intact and likely still recording data.

Unfortunately, the large motions have now resulted in a misalignment of the radio shot between the instrument and the observatory, cutting off communication and therefore data flow from the GPS station.

At about the same time that we lost the ability to contact NPIT, HVO staff completed work to add telemetry to two temporary GPS stations on the caldera floor.

These two stations, called CALS and VO46, are not located on actively slumping portions of the caldera floor and therefore do not show the dramatic downward motion that NPIT did.

However, they reveal that even portions of the caldera floor away from active slumping are moving downward very quickly; by as much as 1.0 m per day (3.3 feet per day) at station CALS. The data from these new stations can be viewed on the deformation page for Kīlauea.

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Why so many earthquakes in the Kīlauea summit area?
May 29, 2018

Deflation at Kīlauea's summit has caused up to 1.5 meters (about 5 feet) of subsidence, which has stressed the faults around and within Kīlauea Caldera. Read more

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GPS monitoring reveal where magma has moved
May 24, 2018

Kīlauea Volcano is currently erupting at two locations: from Halema‘uma‘u, a crater within the summit caldera, and from the lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) in and near the Leilani Estates and Lanipuna subdivisions.

Small explosive episodes at Kīlauea's summit are a consequence of magma withdrawing from a shallow reservoir beneath the east margin of Halema‘uma‘u. The eruption of lava along the LERZ resulted from the underground movement of magma eastward from the volcano's middle East Rift Zone.



Image above: Illustration of Kīlauea Volcano from the summit caldera to the lower East Rift Zone (LERZ). Blue arrows = contraction across the upper and middle rift zone, black arrows = expansion in LERZ. From original article.

GPS, tiltmeters, and satellite radar (InSAR) data captured how Kīlauea's surface has moved since the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent collapsed on April 30, 2018. These data allow scientists to infer where magma was removed and the location to which it was transferred. In the first days following the collapse of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō, the largest signals indicated contraction across the upper and middle East Rift Zone—evidence that magma was being withdrawn from this area.

This was followed by expansion across the LERZ—evidence that magma was intruding into this part of the rift zone at depths of less than about 3 km (2 mi). The forceful widening of the LERZ continued through May 18, at which time a GPS site north of the intrusion stopped moving northwestward and stabilized.

In early May, days after the collapse of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō, the lava lake level in Halema‘uma‘u began to drop as the summit area subsided at a high rate. The lava lake surface disappeared from view on about May 10, at a depth of more than 325 m (1,070 ft) below the Halema‘uma‘u crater floor.


Image above: This plot shows vertical displacement of a USGS GPS (CRIM) station from April 26 to May 24, 2018. From original article.

Subsidence of the summit area continues. Between May 1 and May 24 the caldera floor subsided as much as 1.4 m (4.5 ft). The GPS station, labeled as CRIM on the edge of Kīlauea's summit caldera [Fig.2], has subsided about 0.6 m (1.9 ft).

Continued summit subsidence indicates that magma is moving from the summit magma reservoir and into the East Rift Zone at a higher rate than magma is entering the reservoir from below. To date, geochemical analysis of erupted lava indicates that summit magma has not yet erupted from the LERZ fissures 1-23.

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Facts on stability of Kīlauea's south flank, past and present
 May 14, 2018

There have been several recent highly speculative stories, rumors and blogs about the stability of the south flank of Kīlauea and the potential for a catastrophic collapse that could generate a Pacific-wide tsunami. We wish to put these speculations in their proper context by presenting observations of the current situation and an assessment of past evidence of landslides from Kīlauea.

There is no geologic evidence for past catastrophic collapses of Kīlauea Volcano that would lead to a major Pacific tsunami, and such an event is extremely unlikely in the future based on monitoring of surface deformation. Kīlauea tends to "slump", which is a slower type of movement that is not associated with tsunamis, although localized tsunamis only affecting the island have been generated by strong earthquakes in the past.

The May 4 M6.9 earthquake resulted in seaward motion of approximately 0.5 m (1.5 ft) along portions of Kīlauea's south flank as measured by GPS stations across the volcano.

A preliminary model suggests that the motion was caused by up to 2.5 meters (8 feet) of slip along the fault that underlies the volcano's south flank, at the interface between the volcano and the ocean floor, about 7-9 km (4-6 mi) beneath the surface.

This motion is within the expected range for a large earthquake on this fault. The earthquake was probably caused by pressure exerted by the magmatic intrusion on the south flank fault, following the pattern of past earthquake activity that has been observed during Kīlauea East Rift Zone intrusions.

A small, very localized tsunami did occur as a result of the fault slip. Similar local tsunamis were generated by past large earthquakes, including the 1975 M7.7 and 1868 ~M8 events, both of which resulted in multiple deaths along the south coast of the Island of Hawai‘i.

Adjustments on the south flank caused another ~9 cm (3.5 inches) of motion at the surface in the day after the earthquake, followed by another 2-3 cm (~1 inch) since May 5.

This is higher than the normal rate of south flank motion (~8 cm (3 inches) per year) but is expected as the volcano adjusts after a combination of a magmatic intrusion along the East Rift Zone and a large south flank earthquake.

We did observe minor ground ruptures on the south flank, but this is expected given the strength of the May 4 earthquake, and deformation data show that the south flank continues to move as an intact slump block.

Geologic history combined with models of south flank motion suggest that the likelihood of a catastrophic failure event is incredibly remote. There are certainly signs on the ocean floor for landslides from other volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i and from other islands, but none are associated with Kīlauea.

In addition, Kīlauea has experienced much larger earthquakes and magmatic intrusions in the recent past. The large earthquakes of 1975 and 1868 were not associated with significant south flank landsliding, nor were major East Rift Zone intrusions in 1840 and 1924.



Image above: This plot shows vertical displacement of a USGS GPS (CRIM) station from April 26 to May 24, 2018. Cross-section through the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano. From original article.

Cross-section through the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano. Magma intruded into the rift zone and exerted pressure on the south flank of Kīlauea, likely encouraging the M6.9 earthquake that occurred on a fault located at the interface between the volcano and the preexisting ocean floor.

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Kilauea Volcano Update

SUBHEAD: Earthquake rocks Hawaii volcano and lava destroys Hawaii County Mayor Kim's home.

By John Bacon on 5 June 2018 for  USA Today -
(https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/06/05/hawaii-volcano-earthquake-rattles-kilauea-spewing-ash-mile-high/672222002/)


Image above: Kilauea volcano Lava pours into the Pacific Ocean in the Puna district of the Big Island in Hawaii. From original article. Photo by the USGS.

[IB Publisher's note: Fracking causes earthquakes in places that are not prone to them. We are mostly aware of fracking used to work seams of underground fossil fuels. But it should be noted that the large geothermal energy effort that supplies 25% of the electrical energy used on the Big Island employs fracking technology deep underground in several "wells" where the volcanic activity is in the Kilauea area of Puna.] 

A magnitude-5.5 earthquake rattled Hawaii's Kilauea volcano Tuesday as the home of Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim was added to the inventory of destruction wrought by the searing lava ushering havoc into nearby Big Island communities.

Kim's home in the Vacationland neighborhood is one of 117 confirmed burned in the area since Kilauea began erupting May. 3. Authorities say the true number is much higher.

“Harry had a premonition this was going to happen,” Janet Snyder, spokeswoman of the Hawaii County Civil Defense, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. “Vacationland is almost totally destroyed."

Tuesday's quake, the latest in a series to rock the surging volcano, spewed ash a mile into into the air. Some areas may have experienced "strong shaking," but no tsunami was triggered, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said.

Lava is entering the water at the Vacationland tidepools and has inundated most of the subdivision, the Hawaii Volcano Observatory reported after a flyover Tuesday. To the north, lava has covered all but the northern part of lots in Kapoho Beach, the observatory said.

Thousands of residents of the Big Island's Puna district have evacuated since the eruptions began. Residents of Leilani Estates were ordered out weeks ago, and Kapoho Beach and Vacationland were recently evacuated amid fears that residents would be unreachable for rescue teams.

Most of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park remains closed because of a series of damaging earthquakes, corrosive volcanic ash and continuing explosions from Halema‘uma‘u, the summit crater of Kilauea.

“Unlike lava, which you can see coming and avoid, we cannot see or predict earthquakes," Park Superintendent Cindy Orlando said. "Nor can we foresee a summit explosion. But both threats continue."

The area also is seeing increasing damage to its natural beauty. Kapoho Bay, near the Big Island's eastern tip, was filled with lava extending almost three-quarters of a mile from shore, the U.S. Geological Survey said in a statement. That raises the threat from laze, a toxic mixture of hydrochloric acid formed by lava vaporizing seawater.

At the Malama Kī Forest Reserve, forest managers report that up to half the 1,514 acres have thus far been "impacted" by the eruptions. The forest has served as habitat to sub-populations of native birds including Hawaiian honeycreepers, the Hawai‘i 'amakihi and ‘apapane.

The loss of forest habitat because of lava inundation and defoliation could mean these "sub-populations of wildlife may no longer persist, rapidly decline or become further fragmented and/or contract in range," forestry official Steve Bergfeld warned.

In the Puʻu Makaʻala Natural Area Reserve, higher up on the slopes of Kilauea, staff involved in the recovery of the endangered Hawaiian crow, the ‘alala, were closely monitoring birds released in the area.

"Staff on-site in the release area are prepared to recapture birds and transport them if needed,” project manager Jackie Levita-Gaudioso said.

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Big Island Geothermal
SUBHEAD: Israeli-owned geothermal plant in Hawaii under fire as lava oozes nearby.

By Staff on 23 May 2018 for  Associated Press - 
(https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-owned-geothermal-plant-in-hawaii-under-fire-as-lava-oozes-nearby/)


Image above: Lava approaches Ormat's Puna Geothermal Venture plant on Hawaii's Big Island on May 21, 2018. Photo by Mario Tama. From original article.

Workers scramble to shut vents at Ormat Technology's Puna facility after Kilauea eruption claims adjacent building; stocks tumble in Tel Aviv and New York.

Authorities were racing Tuesday to close off production wells at an Israeli-owned geothermal plant threatened by a lava flow from Kilauea volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island.

Workers were capping the 11th and last well at the plant to prevent toxic gases from wafting out after lava entered, then stalled, on the property near one of the new volcanic vents.

“Right now, they’re in a safe state,” Mike Kaleikini, senior director of Hawaii affairs for the Puna Geothermal Venture plant, said of the wells. There also were plans to install metal plugs in the wells as an additional stopgap measure.

The wells run as far as 8,000 feet (2,438 meters) underground at the plant, which covers around 40 acres (16 hectares) of the 815-acre (329.8 hectare) property. The plant has capacity to produce 38 megawatts of electricity, providing roughly one-quarter of the Big Island’s daily energy demand.

Lava destroyed a building near the plant, bringing the total number of structures destroyed in the past several weeks to nearly 50, including dozens of homes.

The latest was a warehouse adjacent to the Puna plant, overtaken by lava on Monday night, Hawaii County spokeswoman Janet Snyder told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. The building was owned by the state of Hawaii, and was used in geothermal research projects in the early days of the site.

Puna Geothermal, owned by Ormat Technologies, was shut down shortly after Kilauea began spewing lava on May 3. The plant harnesses heat and steam from the earth’s core to spin turbines to generate power. A flammable gas called pentane is used as part of the process, though officials earlier this month removed 50,000 gallons (190,000 liters) of the gas from the plant to reduce the chance of explosions.

Founded in Yavne, Israel, Ormat is today headquartered in Nevada. Its main manufacturing facilities remain in Israel.

Native Hawaiians have long expressed frustration with the plant since it came online in 1989; they believe is built on sacred land. Goddess of fire, Pele, is believed to live on Kilauea volcano, and the plant itself is thought to desecrate her name. Other residents have voiced concerns over health and safety.

Scientists, however, say the conditions on Kilauea make it a good site for harnessing the earth for renewable energy.

“There’s heat beneath the ground if you dig deep enough everywhere,” said Laura Wisland, a senior analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists. But in some places in the U.S. “it’s just hotter, and you can access the geothermal energy more easily.”

Geothermal energy is also considered a clean resource as it doesn’t generate greenhouse gas emissions, said Bridget Ayling, the director of Nevada’s Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy.

Ormat said in a May 15 statement that there was a low risk of surface lava making its way to the facility. The company also said there was no damage to the facilities above-ground and that it was continuing to assess the impact. The plant is expected to begin operating “as soon as it is safe to do so,” according to the statement.

Puna Geothermal represents about 4.5 percent of Ormat’s worldwide generating capacity. Last year, the Hawaii plant generated about $11 million of net income for the company. Ormat is traded on the New York and Tel Aviv stock exchange, and shares have fallen nearly 10 percent since Kilauea began erupting.

Scientists say lava from Kilauea is causing explosions as it enters the ocean, which can look like fireworks. When lava hits the sea and cools, it breaks apart and sends fragments flying into the air, which could land on boats in the water, said US Geological Survey scientist Wendy Stovall.

Kilauea sparked new safety warnings on Monday about toxic gas on the Big Island’s southern coastline after lava flowing into the ocean set off a chemical reaction. Large steam plumes created lava haze, or “laze,” laced with hydrochloric acid and fine glass shards when it flowed into the sea.

It’s just the latest hazard from a weeks-old eruption that has so far generated earthquakes and featured gushing molten rock, giant ash plumes and sulfur dioxide. There has been continuous low-level ash emission from Kilauea’s summit with larger explosions every few hours, said U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Mike Poland.

See also:
University of Hawaii animated Vog Map daily-hourly
Ea O Ka Aina: Kilauea Volcano 5/4/18
EA O Ka Aina: Volcanoes - Hawaii & Iceland 4/20/10

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West Coast State of Mind

SUBHEAD: It's just a part of the even greater tectonic phenomenon called the Ring of Fire.

By James Kunstler on 4 June 2018 for Kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/west-coast-state-mind/)


Image above: On May 18th 1980, Mount Saint Helens exploded and devastated hundreds of square miles around it. From (https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/eruption-mount-st-helens-1980/).

Driving south on I-5 into Seattle, the Cascadia Subduction Zone came to mind, especially when the highway dipped into a gloomy tunnel beneath Seattle’s relatively new skyscraper district. This fault line runs along the Pacific coast from north of Vancouver down into California.

The western “plates” move implacably east and downward under the North American plate, building up massive tectonic forces that can produce some of the most violent megathrust earthquakes on the planet.

The zone also accounts for a chain of volcanoes that tend to produce titanic explosions rather than eruptions of lava and ash as seen in the hula movies.

The most recent expression of this tendency was Mt. St. Helens in 1980, an impressive cataclysm by the standards of our fine-tuned complex civilization, but a junior event of its type compared to, say, the blow-off of Mt. Mazama 7,500 years ago, which left Crater Lake for the tourists. A publicity-shy correspondent writes:

By all acounts Mazama was floating upon a vast lake of steamy rhyolite. It was a structurally unstable stratovolcano the size of Mount Shasta with a net volume of 80 cubic miles. A five minute Triple Junction 9.3 Richter Scale shaker uncorked the Mount Mazama champagne bottle via massive lahars which removed the overpressure. Geologists estimate that the eruption lasted for about one day.

It’s only been in the last thirty years that Seattle hoisted up its tombstone cluster of several dozen office and condo towers. That’s what cities do these days to demonstrate their self-regard, and Seattle is perhaps America’s boomingest city, what with Microsoft’s and Amazon’s headquarters there — avatars of the digital economy.

A megathrust earthquake there today would produce a scene that even the computer graphics artistes of Hollywood could not match for picturesque chaos. What were the city planners thinking when they signed off on those building plans?

I survived the journey through the Seattle tunnel, dogged by neurotic fantasies, and headed south to California’s Bay Area, another seismic doomer zone. For sure I am not the only casual observer who gets the doomish vibe out there on the Left Coast.

Even if you are oblivious to the geology of the place, there’s plenty to suggest a sense of impossibility for business-as-usual continuing much longer.

I got that end-of-an-era feeling in California traffic, specifically driving toward San Francisco on the I-80 freeway out in the suburban asteroid belt of Contra Costa County, past the sinister oil refineries of Mococo and the dormitory sprawl of Walnut Creek, Orinda, and Lafayette.

Things go on until they can’t, economist Herb Stein observed, back in the quaint old 20th century, as the USA revved up toward the final blowoff we’ve now entered.

The shale oil “miracle” (so-called) has given even thoughtful adults the false impression that the California template for modern living will continue indefinitely. I’d give it less than five years now.

The movers and shakers of that state dwell in an extra-special political bubble of their own that doesn’t accommodate much thought about the actual future in which all their recent investments in public infrastructure fail spectacularly.

There will be no Tesla utopia of self-driving electric cars to “solve” the dilemmas of internal combustion, despite the prototype demonstrations among status-seeking tech executive millionaires.

From the Berkeley highlands at night, you could see across the fabled bay to the twinkling new skyscrapers of San Francisco — like Seattle’s, another expression of the inordinate riches spawned by computers. How was that a good idea, considering what happened there as recently as 1906?

What you see out there along the Pacific rim of the USA is a giant booby-trap of certain cataclysm. It’s part of the even greater tectonic phenomenon called the Ring of Fire, which circles the whole western ocean from the Aleutian Islands to Japan through Indonesia and up again along the western edge of South America.

Things are livening up all over the darn thing right now, including the rumblings of a bunch of big volcanoes in the South Pacific and the Fuego volcano in Guatemala, uncorking lethally as I write.

And, of course, none of the foregoing includes the giant magma dome of worthless stock and bond values swelling under the towers of Wall Street back east.

[IB Publisher's note: Over time We've come to sense that James H. Kunstler has a bit of misogynous and racial bias in his understanding of people. We try to make posts to this website that do not display that side of his world. None the less, we still find his observations of American suburban auto-centric life, with its self denial and absurdities, a penetrating vision.]

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Kilauea Volcano

SUBHEAD: USGS says earthquakes and lava fissures could last for months on the Big Island of Hawaii.

By Karin Stranton on 4 May 2018 for Reuters -
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hawaii-volcano/earthquakes-lava-fissures-could-last-for-months-on-hawaii-usgs-idUSKBN1I608N)


Image above: Lava advances along a street near a fissure in Leilani Estates, on Kilauea Volcano's lower East Rift Zone, Hawaii, the U.S., May 5, 2018. From original article.

More homes on Hawaii’s Big Island were destroyed on Saturday as eruptions linked to the Kilauea volcano increased, spewing lava into residential areas and forcing nearly 2,000 people to evacuate, officials said.

Scientists forecast more eruptions and more earthquakes, perhaps for months to come, after the southeast corner of the island was rocked by a 6.9 tremor on Friday, the strongest on the island since 1975.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said on Saturday that several new lava fissures had opened in the Leilani Estates subdivision of Puna District, about a dozen miles (19 km) from the volcano. Not all the fissures were still active, it added.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said at midday local time on Saturday that “eruptive activity is increasing and is expected to continue.”

Janet Babb, a spokeswoman for the observatory, said by telephone that the eruptions could carry on “for weeks or months.”

Babb said the activity since Thursday is beginning to show similarities to another event in the area in 1955 that lasted for 88 days, when far fewer people lived near the volcano.

Although no significant lava flows have yet formed, additional outbreaks of lava, which can reach temperatures of about 2,100 degrees Fahrenheit (1,150 Celsius), were expected, the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency said.

The Hawaii Fire Department reported “extremely dangerous air quality conditions due to high levels of sulfur dioxide gas in the evacuation area,” civil defense officials said on Saturday. The gas can cause skin irritations and breathing difficulties.

Ken Smith of Mountain View on the island ran errands on Friday evening on streets usually busy with pre-weekend traffic, “but the roads were totally empty,” he said by telephone. “It felt almost apocalyptic.”

Kilauea, one of the world’s most active volcanoes and one of five on the island, has been in constant eruption for 35 years. Lava flows from the volcano have covered 48 square miles (125 square km), according to the USGS.

Kilauea began spewing lava into residential areas on Thursday after a series of earthquakes over the preceding week. Starting around 11 a.m. on Friday, the island experienced a flurry of earthquakes, culminating in the massive magnitude 6.9 tremor.

No injuries or deaths were reported, but Hawaii Governor David Ige activated the Hawaii National Guard to provide emergency help.

U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii called on federal officials to send help quickly.

Gabbard, a Democrat, in a letter sent Friday, asked Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator William Long to respond to “short- and long-term housing, infrastructure, agriculture, and public health effects to Hawaii Island.”

Gabbard said more than 1,800 residents in Leilani Estates and Lanipuna Gardens have been ordered to leave their homes since Thursday, when public works officials first reported steam and lava erupting from fissures in a road.

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Lava rises in Big Island crater

SUBHEAD: HVO geologist estimates the lava lake had risen over 260 feet, since November.  

By Peter Sur on 13 February 2011 for the Tribune-Herald - (http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/articles/2011/02/13/local_news/local01.txt)

 
Image above: Painting of Halemaumau Crater by Diane Burko (2000). From (http://www.dianeburko.com/work/paintings/volcanoes/hawaii/halemaumau_crater1.html). 

[IB Editor's note: In the last few years volcanic activity on the Big Island has increased vog (volcanic smog) frequency and volume. Vog includes sulfuric acid mixed with dust. As a result many people sensitive to vog have suffered sinus, throat and bronchial problems as far away as here on Kauai. This is not be something like a passing weather condition. It is a geological phenomena. It could go away tomorrow, but could easily last a hundred years. If there is increased volcanic activity we will have more voggy days on the Garden Island.] 


The lava lake at the summit of Halema'uma'u crater has been rising gradually in the last few months. It's within 235 feet of Halema'uma'u floor. One of Hawaii's hidden wonders, a circulating body of molten lava some 460 feet in diameter, rises and falls at the bottom of a pit in the floor of Halema'uma'u, within the Kilauea caldera. The lava was first seen in November 2009, lurking in a hole 660 feet below the surface of the old crater, fluctuating in height.

Since that time, the lake has grown in size and risen to within 235 feet of the crater floor as of Saturday morning. It is not visible from the overlook at the Thomas A. Jaggar Museum, but volcanologists are able to watch it through a webcam perched on the rim of the crater. Much of the rise has taken place within the past several days. Wednesday, the lava lake was some 340 feet below the floor of Halema'uma'u.

Thursday, it topped 300 feet as Kilauea volcano shivered with nearly two dozen small earthquakes. By Friday, it had risen to within 260 feet of the crater floor. "We've seen since November, just sort of a gradual increase in the height of the lava lake," said Hawaiian Volcanoes Observatory geologist Janet Babb. "Over the last four months or so, there's just sort of an overall increase in height." HVO geologist Tim Orr on Friday estimated the lake had risen at least 80 meters, or 262 feet, since November. "It has come up pretty significantly," Orr said.

As is the norm with Kilauea, the significance of the rising lava lake is unknown. It's possible that the lava could spill out of the pit and on to the crater floor, though this might take months to happen. It's possible that pressure on the magma system could force an intrusion somewhere on the East Rift Zone. It's equally possible that nothing will happen. "Magma is building up at the summit. There is pressure on the system," Orr said. This could be due to an increase in the magma supply or a backing up of the magma in the East Rift Zone. Sensitive monitoring instruments have followed the steadily inflating volcano for months; the pace picked up near Halema'uma'u in November.

Since the middle of last year, GPS receivers positioned on opposite sides of Kilauea's caldera have moved nearly 4 inches apart to accommodate the increased amount of magma. "Clearly some things are changing, but what this leads to, we don't know," Orr said. HVO seismologists are also watching an increased number of earthquakes in the upper East Rift Zone. They are careful not to call it an earthquake swarm; that would imply an imminent outbreak of lava.

According to Jim Kauahikaua, HVO's scientist-in-charge, the current increase in seismicity resembled in some ways the prelude to the intrusion and brief eruption on June 17, 2007, in a remote section of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. But there were also several similar seismic episodes when nothing happened, so it's hard to say what will happen. The largest earthquake so far struck at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. It measured magnitude 3.8 and was centered three miles southeast of Kilauea's summit.
Magma upwelling from deep within the Earth surfaces at the lava lake and then passes through an underground conduit in the East Rift Zone, where it erupts again near the Pu'u 'O'o vent on its way to the sea.

  Image above: Lava rising in Halemaumau Crater. From original article. .

Will Katla blow next?

SUBHEAD: A ripple effect would occur through the already teetering economies of the world if Iceland's Katla volcano erupts. Image above: Katla Volcano in Iceland erupts in 1918. Photo by K. Gudmunsson. From (http://www.acsys.it/volume/php/home.php?&id=8). By Lauren & Ken on 8 May 2010 in Modern Survival Blog - (http://modernsurvivalblog.com/natural-disasters/will-katla-volcano-blow-next)

Each time following an eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano, it’s mighty neighbor, Katla, has erupted shortly afterward. Eyjafjallajokull and Katla are separated by 27 km (17 mi) and are thought to have interconnecting magma channels. Eyjafjallajokull erupted on April 14, 2010.

Katla (named after an Icelandic witch) is known to have erupted 16 times since 930, the last time during 1918. Since then, Katla has been quiet for the longest duration on record. It is overdue, and now that it’s little sister Eyjafjallajokull has erupted, it’s just a matter of time.

Katla itself is 30 km (19 mi) in diameter reaching a height of 1,500 meters (4,900 feet), while the 10 km (6 mi) crater of the volcano lies up to 500 meters (1,600 feet) beneath the Myrdalsjokull glacier on the southern edge of Iceland. Iceland sits directly on top of a split in the earth’s crust of two tectonic plates on the Mid-Atlantic ridge and is a hot spot for volcanic activity with 35 volcanoes around the island.

An eruption of Katla would likely be 10 times stronger than the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajokull and could be disastrous to Iceland with raging floods from the melting Myrdalsjokull glacier, immense depths of volcanic ash, and climate change to regions of the world.

If the eruption is long enough and high enough, ash could be blasted 20 km (12 mi) into the stratosphere and circle the globe blotting out part of the sun from penetrating to earth, and reduce temperatures worldwide. The big question of course is how big would the eruption be and to what extent the global climate change.

We know that when Katla erupted in 1700, the Mississippi River froze just north of New Orleans for example. When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991 for 2 days, it dropped temperatures 4 degrees worldwide for a year. Katla on average erupts for 50 days, although the cumulative severity over that time period depends on the force of the eruptions lifting ash high into the atmosphere. We won’t know until it happens.

Although the magnitude of disaster would not be that of a super volcano such as Wyoming’s Yellowstone, the potential is there for a global catastrophe from a worldwide extended deep freeze. Huge crop failures would translate to starvation for some and very high food prices for others. A ripple effect would occur through the already teetering economies of the world.

Since the potential exists for a major Katla eruption, we should prepare ourselves as best we can, knowing how modern society is so very fragile from disruptions (just look at what happened to worldwide air travel and the economic impact from the small eruption of Eyjafjallajokull).

A first and best course of preparedness action is to begin with the basics of human survival by storing extra food and water. Food storage is a financially sound thing to do as food prices will not be going down in the future. Buy and store extra of the foods that you normally eat, and begin using and rotating your stock. Even if disaster does not strike, you will benefit from peace of mind and saving money.

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Every Business Needs a 'Plan V'

SUBHEAD: Everyone and every company should have backup plans, contingency plans, and worst-case-scenario plans.

By Harold L. Sirkin on 7 May 2010 in Businessweek - (http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/may2010/ca2010057_992978.htm)

Nine months ago when my wife, son, and I went hiking on the glacier covering Eyjafjallajokull, the Icelandic volcano that recently blew its top—shutting down transatlantic and European airline travel—little did we imagine. And that's the problem: Little did anyone imagine.

When transoceanic travel was limited to the high seas, the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull didn't matter. Today it does. As a result of the volcano, more than 100,000 airline flights were canceled over the course of a week, costing the financially hurting airline industry more than $1.7 billion, according to reports. As of this writing, some airports in the U.K. and Ireland are closed due to the latest ash cloud.

The ripple effects were significant as well. Almost a million air travelers were left wilting at airports, as were millions of dollars worth of fresh produce bound for Europe and the U.S. In Kenya alone, according to news reports, some 10 million flowers, mostly roses, had to be discarded.

And what if the volcano, after a brief respite, cranks up the ash again? This is not an unprecedented event. When it last erupted, in 1821, it continued to rumble for another two years. And a neighboring, much bigger volcano—Katla—has historically erupted soon after Eyjafjallajokull. As Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, Iceland's president, put it last month: "What we have seen now is a small rehearsal of what would happen—I don't say if but I say when—Katla will erupt."

Continuity Planning

The Pentagon and its equivalent in other countries have made contingency plans for almost any scenario or combination of scenarios imaginable (especially during the Cold War). Businesses typically have a Plan B.

But this is no longer adequate. As the 2001 terrorist attacks, the 2004 tsunami, the 2008-2009 Great Recession, and the recent volcanic eruption all make clear, business continuity planning needs to extend all the way to Plan V—be that for volcano or victory—in the interconnected global economy.

We may or may not see more such disruptions; who knows? What we do know is that any disruption that does occur will have far more serious ripple effects than anything seen in the past. That's what happens when companies from everywhere are competing for everything with companies from everyplace else.

What if the next big "event"—manmade or act of nature—destroys some substantial portion of China's manufacturing infrastructure or cripples Los Angeles' harbor? What if there's a global flu pandemic? What if Iran goes berserk? What if a computer virus—like the feared Y2K gremlin that never came—disrupts worldwide communication and navigation? What if we fall back into recession and Greece and several other European countries are declared insolvent? What if several such things happen simultaneously?

Consider the extraordinary events of 9/11. Within minutes of the terrorist attacks on Washington and the World Trade Center towers, U.S. airspace was closed, grounding all planes in the U.S. as well as those coming into the U.S. It was unprecedented.

Obviously, that was the right choice, but nobody knew what to do next. As a general rule, planes were ordered to land as quickly as possible at the nearest available airport, regardless of their planned destination. The resulting random and chaotic organization of the airlines' respective fleets bore no resemblance to the usual dispersal of aircraft, with early-morning flights typically "overnighting" at their departure airports so they're ready to go in the morning. Other issues aside, the airlines faced a monumental management challenge: restarting a system that had never before been totally shut down.

How do you plan for such scenarios?

As the world gets more interconnected with global communications networks and global supply chains moving information and goods to customers everywhere, business as usual won't do. Too many things can go wrong and problems half a world away can cause chaos at home.

Elements of Plan V

So what should companies do? What should Plan V look like?

First, manufacturing firms with a Plan V should have multiple manufacturing locations, each with the capability to produce a wide range of the company's products. There are good reasons for doing so anyway, such as proximity to customers and the ability to customize products for local and regional consumers. Add to that: the possibility of crippling supply-chain disruptions, as Africa's flower growers now realize and as we saw several years ago when there was gridlock at America's primary West Coast port just before the Christmas holiday, preventing Asian imports from reaching retailers' shelves. The key here is flexibility.

Second, and as a corollary to this, manufacturers and retailers should maintain strategic inventories of their most popular and/or profitable products close to their best customers: the ones they "have to" supply to keep their factories going so that their competitors don't gain market share in a crisis. This is like America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency supply of crude oil stored in underground caverns: You have it there just in case.

Third, companies should develop alternative distribution networks. If you can't air-ship your flowers to London or Frankfurt and from there to Chicago or New York, you should have plans in place to ship them to Johannesburg and from there to Miami. The rules are simple: When perishable products meet delay, the products perish. Always have alternatives available to quickly salvage their value.

Fourth, think of your key people as international troubleshooters—and make sure they understand this additional duty. In an emergency, they may need to be dispatched to another location on very short notice. Prepare them for this in advance. They should know where they will go under what circumstances and what their duties will be when they get there.

Remember, you don't have to be perfect; you just have to be better than your competitors. Customer satisfaction is everything. Customers don't want excuses. The purpose of Plan V is to keep them happy—so they can keep their customers happy. And everyone in the chain can keep their shareholders happy.

Every company should have backup plans, contingency plans, worst-case-scenario plans; call it what you want. To paraphrase the late actor Karl Malden: In our global economy, "don't be caught without it."

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Volcanoes are Toxic Smokestacks

SUBHEAD: High concentrations of sulfur dioxide drive a caustic chemistry that degrades the atmosphere and attacks the respiratory system.

 By Dr. Douglas Fields on 30 April 2010 in The Huffington Post -  
(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-douglas-fields/volcano-eruption-volcanoe_b_551586.html)


Image above: An eruption of Kilauea volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii in 1924. From (http://www.unige.ch/sciences/terre/mineral/volcano/Recherche/keanakakoi.html)




If powerful jet engines of a 747 jumbo jet can be choked to death in an instant by inhaling volcanic ash, what about delicate lungs of human beings? The sudden termination last week of all trans-Atlantic air flights to avoid the catastrophe of aircraft plummeting to earth from an encounter with volcanic ash from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull, dramatically illustrates the fragile relationship between man and the environment.

Especially on Earth Day, when we renew our enlightened understanding that industrial activities can poison our environment, it is sobering to realize that Nature does not revolve around an imperative to maintain Earth's environment for the health and welfare of human beings. The largest point source of sulfur dioxide in the United States is the Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii. Try fitting a catalytic converter to this "polluter."

Hot volcanic gases are extremely chemically reactive. Bromine released in a volcanic plume causes extensive ozone destruction. Ozone is the atmospheric gas that allows life on this planet to flourish by shielding organisms from the sun's deadly ultraviolet radiation. High concentrations of sulfur dioxide drive a caustic chemistry that degrades the atmosphere and attacks the respiratory system. Mercury and fluoride in the air and water can rise to toxic levels from volcanic eruptions. Fine particles of silica and other residues in volcanic ash pollute the air, block out sun stifling plant growth, and attack lungs. Respiratory infections increase sharply in people living in the vicinity of volcanoes, especially among children.

The Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has been erupting continuously since 1983. In the Ka'u District of Hawaii, indoor sulfur dioxide concentrations are above the World Health Organization recommendations, raising special concern for indoor air quality in hospitals and schools. Studies of medical records and emergency room visits in nearby communities show that local residents have elevated incidence of bronchitis, increased prevalence of cough, phlegm, runny nose, sore throat, sinus congestion, wheezing and eye irritation.

A study in the aftermath of the Mount Asama eruption in Japan on September 1, 2004 found increased asthma in people living in affected areas. The risk of bronchitis doubled compared to unexposed communities, suggesting communities continuously exposed to sulfurous volcanic air pollution may have a higher risk of bronchitis across the life span. A review of mergency room visits after the Guagua Pichincha volcanic eruption in April 2000 in Quito, Ecuador found elevated rates of acute upper and lower respiratory tract infections, and asthma, especially in children. The rate of asthma doubled during the period of volcano activity.

Studies in experimental animals show that in addition to causing respiratory and cardiac illness, sulfur dioxide is a neurotoxin. Inhaled sulfur dioxide destroys DNA and protein by chemical oxidation causing systemic damage to the body's cells. The cellular destruction can be seen under a microscope in heart tissue, lung, liver, cerebral cortex of the brain, kidney and testes. Chemical analysis shows a dose-dependent increase in DNA damage in all cells of mice examined after inhaling sulfur dioxide. Damage to genetic material would fuel increased genetic mutation, cancer and have other destructive consequences.

Not only atmosphere, but water is also polluted by volcanoes. The water of Kagoshima Bay in Japan, which has a highly active volcano in its center, has dangerously elevated levels of mercury. People living in the Isparta Province of Turkey have mottled tooth enamel from high levels of fluoride leached from volcanic rocks into drinking water.

Clinging to this crust floating like slag on the Earth's molten core it is remarkably easy to forget that volcanoes have been shaping the geology and biology of this evolving planet for eons. This process began long before humans entered the scene and doubtlessly volcanoes will continue to do so long after homo sapiens succumbs to the same fate as dinosaurs, trilobites and the other marvelous biological creatures that have had their day on this third planet from the sun.
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Volcanoes - Hawaii & Iceland

SUBHEAD: Hawaii is fully dependent on the poorly performing tourism industry. Concluding that volcano eruptions cause health risks could ruin economy.

By Patrick Takahashi on 20 April 2010 in the Huffington Post -  
(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/patrick-takahashi/volcanoes-hawaii-versus-i_b_543571.html)
 

 
Image above: Photo of Kilauea Vocano erupting with a plume of toxic gasses, including sulphur dioxide, that temporarily closed Volcano National Park. From (http://www.uclick.com/widgets/ew/080411/ew080411b.html).

On January 3, 1983 I was golfing at the Volcano Golf and Country Club on the Big Island of Hawaii, when, on our back nine, the ground shook and we saw fountains of lava. It was a Kilauea Volcano eruption that continues until today, 27 years later.

I cite this experience because Eyjafjallajokull (E), that Icelandic volcano which erupted on March 20, continued on for 14 months when last active in 1821. Worse still, every time this volcano has gone off (only three in a millennium), its much larger sister, Katla (K), has also erupted.

The combination of E and K could well be truly ominous. While air travel is beginning to return, and this current phase could end today, what will happen to Europe if this episode continues for years?
Iceland, like the islands of Hawaii, was formed by volcanoes.

In 1783, Laki (L) killed half the livestock and a quarter of the population, and in 934 Edlgja might well have had the largest basalt flow in the history of Planet Earth. Oh, there are 35 active volcanoes on Iceland.

Access Science has an excellent summary of volcano eruptions and the potential impact on humanity. Simple Solutions for Planet Earth describes various potential natural disasters, including the mega hyped Cumbre Vieja volcanic eruption said to be capable of creating a mega tsunami.

Further described is a similar scenario where a portion of the Big Island of Hawaii falls into the ocean, with the potential for generating a mega (normal amplitude max is 40 feet, while mega starts at 40 meters and could go up to 500 meters and higher) tsunami.

Located on the Big Island, Kilauea is the most active and visited volcano in the world. It is so accessible and "safe" that the Hawaii Volcano Observatory actually began doing science right on that mountain nearly a century ago. It's still there.

When the wind blows from the Big Island towards Honolulu, we become Los Angeles of 1960 when the smog was truly terrible. I have canceled golf outings when these days occur.

There is no question in my mind that lifelong exposure to the Hawaiian vog must damage lungs, much more so on the Big Island than other islands. The concrete wall structures on my roof are turning a shade of yellow (from the sulfuric acid fallout) and small black particulates are visible, which can only mean that your lungs breathe in these micro lava shards.

Okay, the situation in Iceland is different, but here in Hawaii, we have taken advantage of this potential calamity: Kilauea eruptions increase the visitor count! A few surveys have been undertaken, and the general data shows that cardiorespiratory influences can be detected, and crops have been damaged.

 This is not a particularly big deal in the media, partially, I worry, because the economy of Hawaii is fully dependent on tourism, and as poorly as the industry is currently doing, a condemning conclusion could be yet another dagger that can sink us into a local depression.

While as earlier mentioned, our eruptions, with rare exceptions, tend to mostly flow, with sulfurous gases, Icelandic ones, perhaps because of the overlying glaciers, are much more explosive, tossing a lot more particulates into the air. As a result, the bankruptcy in Iceland might well turn out to be contagious if E is joined by K (no, not Kilauea, but Katla, and sure, why not add Laki, plus Edlgja), and continues belching.

Thus, the European Union can add to the PIGS list yet another economic thorn. Worse, if prolonged, the health of citizens could be affected. So learn how to pronounce EYJAFJALLAJOKULL, for like in Hawaii, this natural disaster could well hang around for some time to come.

See also:  
Volcanic Air Pollution—A Hazard in Hawaii (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs169-97)

Haiti, then Chile, now Iceland

SUBHEAD: An Icelandic volcano, dormant for 200 years, has erupted, ripping a 1km-long fissure in a field of ice. Image above: Icelandic volcano and an aurora light the sky after eruption split a 1km chasm in the ice. Photo by Sigourour H. Stefnisson. From (http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap060129.html) By Staff on 21 March 2010 in Whats Up With That? (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/21/icelandic-fissure-eruptuon-triggers-worries)

The volcano near Eyjafjallajoekull glacier began to erupt just after midnight, sending lava a hundred meters high.

Icelandic airspace has been closed, flights diverted and roads closed. The eruption was about 120km (75 miles) east of the capital, Reykjavik.

What volcanic scientists fear is the fact that this eruption could trigger an eruption of Katla, one of the most dangerous volcanic systems in the world.

Eruptive events in Eyjafjallajökull are often followed by a Katla eruption. The Laki craters and the Eldgjá are part of the same volcanic system. Insta-melt could occur:

At the peak of the 1755 Katla eruption the flood discharge has been estimated between 200,000–400,000 m³/s; for comparison the combined average discharge of the Amazon, Mississippi, Nile, and Yangtze rivers is about 290,000 m³/s.

See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla

Videos above: Volcano Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull Iceland 20 Mars 2010. Videos above: Volcano Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull Iceland 20 Mars 2010.

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Volcano erupts near Eyjafjallajoekull (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8578576.stm)

The volcano near the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier began to erupt shortly after midnight, leading to road closures in the area.

No one was in immediate danger, but 500 people were being moved from the area.

It is almost 200 years since a volcano near Eyjafjallajokull, 120km (75 miles) east of Reykjavik, last erupted. The last volcanic eruption in the area occurred in 1821.