Fragility & Collapse

SUBHEAD: Collapse happens slowly at first, then all at once. Exactly when is hard to predict.  

By Dmitry Orlov on 5 June 2012 for Club Orlov -  

Image above: Passing over a fragile bridge in the interior of the Congo. From (

[IBPublisher's note: This is a long article (approximately 5,000 words. We have simply pulled three paragrphs to set the tone. For its entirety please visit the link above.]
I have been predicting collapse for over five years now.

My prediction is that the USA will collapse financially, economically and politically within the foreseeable future... and this hasn’t happened yet. And so, inevitably, I am asked the same question over and over again: “When?”

And, inevitably, I answer that I don’t make predictions as to timing. This leaves my questioners dissatisfied, and so I thought that I should try to explain why it is that I don’t make predictions as to timing. I will also try to explain how one might go about creating such predictions, understanding full well that the result is highly subjective...

... It is something of a general property of things that things build up slowly and collapse quickly. Examples of this sort abound (buildings, bridges, dams, military empires, economies, supernovae...) 

And so, please don’t ask me “When?”—do your own thinking! I’ve given you the tools you need to come to your own conclusions, based on which you may be able to start your collapse early and get it over with quickly.

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