SOURCE: Elaine Dunbar (inunyabus@gmail.com)
SUBHEAD: An old index indicates a lengthening economic downturn with little shipping.
by Jeff on 4 January 2009 in The Green Dragon Inn -
(http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video/vital-critical-you-must)
Video above: BDI Index analysis from Green Dragon. From (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXATSV8S3-M). http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video/vital-critical-you-must
[IB Editor's note: The following article includes a video and text that appears to have as a source several common internet sites, icluding http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm]
I've been discussing the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) with everyone I can for months now. I started following it in June of 2008. It's not a traded index so no one profits from the index itself, which makes it virtually manipulation proof. It is what it is and that doesn't bode well for any of us. OK, we have 26 shipping routes around the world that the BDI looks at.
Shipping stocks are slaves to the BDI. Capesize Ships (over 100,000 tons) make up only 10% of the World Fleet but move 62% of Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 35/40, China 20, Brazil 40-50, S. Africa 1-7). Panamax Ships (60,000-80,000 tons) make up 19% of the world fleet and move 20% of the Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 40-60, China 20-35, Brazil 3-12, S Africa 0-1).
There is a third and fourth ship size but they are quite small and they aren't moving either. If we can use the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a guide for the next 12 months of product delivery and food availability in the stores we shop in then the BDI says shelves will be virtually empty of almost every product we use each and every day. Is the BDI is wrong it will be an historic first.
The BDI is used by bankers, financial experts, brokers, traders and everyone in high end finance to assess the global financial condition and the availability of products worldwide.
The BDI has dropped 94% in a short few weeks which means raw materials, grains, ores, steel, iron, cement and all imported products for food manufacturing and product manufacturing even though we actually do very little of that here in the US. We do make bread and other products that require grains, like cereals. We import clothing, gasoline, various fuels and, well, just about everything these days and the BDI says global shipping has shut down.
NOTHING is moving. Because this spells disaster for a country that produces little and imports everything I have been intently blogging about the subject and asking people to view a short video I have posted (8 minutes) on.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world. It cannot be cheated or manipulated because it deals with actual products that are either actively being shipped, or are on docks awaiting to be shipped as Freight On Board (FOB).
As the chart below proves, back in June, 2008 the BDI stood at a reasonably healthy 11,600. As of today, the BDI has plummeted to 791. That's about a 94% drop in goods actually being shipped worldwide. This portends unprecedented disaster around the world, especially as it relates to food. Products are simply not being shipped. They aren't being shipped because there aren't any orders for them. This will translate into massive, unprecedented unemployment worldwide and, as things get worse, massive food shortages.
I have urgently asked each of you to stock up on dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, beans, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses. Many of you laughed me off as some sort of kook for making those suggestions, with some of you going so far as to call me "chicken little, the sky is falling." Well, it appears I'm having the last laugh. I correctly forecast the economic meltdown which took place in September.
For over a year prior to that meltdown, I warned it was coming and, in March of 2008, I actually pinpointed the month the meltdown would take place, warning you it would happen in September. It did. Now I am once again warning you about food shortages because the facts are irrefutable. The BDI proves that goods are not being shipped. There has been a 94% reduction in shipped goods since June of this year and it is only going to get worse.
If you do not have food stored up for your family, you will starve to death. If you do not own guns and ammunition, any food you DO have will be stolen by roving bands of savages who are trying not to starve to death. The social breakdown that is coming is unparalleled in modern history.
We are going to suffer on an order of magnitude greater than folks suffered during the Great Depression. Please, I urge you, prepare. There are only a few precious months left before it all goes to hell.
So as I said, I have been emailing everyone I can think of and here's a very interesting email I received back from a friend tonight. He's a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver and desigsn and builds large power plants for a living. Hi Jeff, Quite the contrary, I'm well acquainted with the Baltic Dry Index.
My brother is a mid- to high-level executive with a logistics/cargo firm. His company (as well as all other shipping companies) have seen huge dives in the amount of business they do. The main point that many people do not understand is that without trade between states and nations no one prospers! It's always tempting to say "screw the third world countries and screw the Chinese with all the crap they send over here!
Let's shut our borders down and not import anything!" But the reality is that no country that practices such Draconian protectionist policies ever lasts very long. So with that, it is of huge concern to you, me, and everyone else "in the know" when the BDI drops so drastically!
The whole world is truly tied at the hip, as the saying goes! Brother, I'm on board with you 100%! I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to send me the link (which I will watch by this weekend). You hit the nail on the head in that 98% of the people in this country have not one clue what the BDI is, what it indicates; nothing!
The truly sad thing, to me at least, is that the masses of "useful idiots" (as Lenin called them) have no clue what is going on around them, yet they so eagerly and boisterously vote! I'm afraid that this country is going to have to go through a considerable amount of pain before the uneducated, ignorant (and I won't say stupid because they simply have not been taught) masses "get it". I am a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver.
I design and build large power plants for a living. Without giving the whole story of my career believe me when I say that in the next few years this country will see rolling blackouts (and that's not taking into account another terrorist attack on our country!). If the people in this country knew what I know first hand about our power grid and the condition of our (very old!) power plants in this country, they would probably crap themselves in fear!
The only surprise to me is that the blackouts didn't happen this past summer, but that was due to 2008 being a cooler year than expected. The bottom line is, our power grid (and for that matter, much of the infrastructure in this country) is tapped out and actually older than its expected life.
And yet, our wonderful federal government, elected by us "useful idiots", continues to spend, spend, spend like drunken sailors. Why? Well, because that's what we've "always" done! It sickens me! Take a look at www.chrismartenson.com This fellow has his head screwed on straight!
Take it from me brother, I build power plants for a living. But I still have a basement full of not just guns, ammo, and food, but of fuel! White gas, propane bottle's, even sterno & alcohol type cans. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already, STOCK UP on a fuel supply, at least so that you can cook and have some modest heat if you don't have a fireplace!
Consider what you have and ask yourself if you have enough to get you through a month, 2 months? Three? God Bless Sam's Club for carrying Coleman fuel and propane and such... I'll share more of my knowledge (limited though it is) with you later on. Peace be with you brother.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst! Believe or don't, the choice is yours but at the very least I suggest you start doing the research on this subject or you may be starving in a few short months.
SUBHEAD: An old index indicates a lengthening economic downturn with little shipping.
by Jeff on 4 January 2009 in The Green Dragon Inn -
(http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video/vital-critical-you-must)
Video above: BDI Index analysis from Green Dragon. From (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXATSV8S3-M). http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video/vital-critical-you-must
[IB Editor's note: The following article includes a video and text that appears to have as a source several common internet sites, icluding http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm]
I've been discussing the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) with everyone I can for months now. I started following it in June of 2008. It's not a traded index so no one profits from the index itself, which makes it virtually manipulation proof. It is what it is and that doesn't bode well for any of us. OK, we have 26 shipping routes around the world that the BDI looks at.
Shipping stocks are slaves to the BDI. Capesize Ships (over 100,000 tons) make up only 10% of the World Fleet but move 62% of Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 35/40, China 20, Brazil 40-50, S. Africa 1-7). Panamax Ships (60,000-80,000 tons) make up 19% of the world fleet and move 20% of the Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 40-60, China 20-35, Brazil 3-12, S Africa 0-1).
There is a third and fourth ship size but they are quite small and they aren't moving either. If we can use the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a guide for the next 12 months of product delivery and food availability in the stores we shop in then the BDI says shelves will be virtually empty of almost every product we use each and every day. Is the BDI is wrong it will be an historic first.
The BDI is used by bankers, financial experts, brokers, traders and everyone in high end finance to assess the global financial condition and the availability of products worldwide.
The BDI has dropped 94% in a short few weeks which means raw materials, grains, ores, steel, iron, cement and all imported products for food manufacturing and product manufacturing even though we actually do very little of that here in the US. We do make bread and other products that require grains, like cereals. We import clothing, gasoline, various fuels and, well, just about everything these days and the BDI says global shipping has shut down.
NOTHING is moving. Because this spells disaster for a country that produces little and imports everything I have been intently blogging about the subject and asking people to view a short video I have posted (8 minutes) on.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world. It cannot be cheated or manipulated because it deals with actual products that are either actively being shipped, or are on docks awaiting to be shipped as Freight On Board (FOB).
As the chart below proves, back in June, 2008 the BDI stood at a reasonably healthy 11,600. As of today, the BDI has plummeted to 791. That's about a 94% drop in goods actually being shipped worldwide. This portends unprecedented disaster around the world, especially as it relates to food. Products are simply not being shipped. They aren't being shipped because there aren't any orders for them. This will translate into massive, unprecedented unemployment worldwide and, as things get worse, massive food shortages.
I have urgently asked each of you to stock up on dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, beans, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses. Many of you laughed me off as some sort of kook for making those suggestions, with some of you going so far as to call me "chicken little, the sky is falling." Well, it appears I'm having the last laugh. I correctly forecast the economic meltdown which took place in September.
For over a year prior to that meltdown, I warned it was coming and, in March of 2008, I actually pinpointed the month the meltdown would take place, warning you it would happen in September. It did. Now I am once again warning you about food shortages because the facts are irrefutable. The BDI proves that goods are not being shipped. There has been a 94% reduction in shipped goods since June of this year and it is only going to get worse.
If you do not have food stored up for your family, you will starve to death. If you do not own guns and ammunition, any food you DO have will be stolen by roving bands of savages who are trying not to starve to death. The social breakdown that is coming is unparalleled in modern history.
We are going to suffer on an order of magnitude greater than folks suffered during the Great Depression. Please, I urge you, prepare. There are only a few precious months left before it all goes to hell.
So as I said, I have been emailing everyone I can think of and here's a very interesting email I received back from a friend tonight. He's a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver and desigsn and builds large power plants for a living. Hi Jeff, Quite the contrary, I'm well acquainted with the Baltic Dry Index.
My brother is a mid- to high-level executive with a logistics/cargo firm. His company (as well as all other shipping companies) have seen huge dives in the amount of business they do. The main point that many people do not understand is that without trade between states and nations no one prospers! It's always tempting to say "screw the third world countries and screw the Chinese with all the crap they send over here!
Let's shut our borders down and not import anything!" But the reality is that no country that practices such Draconian protectionist policies ever lasts very long. So with that, it is of huge concern to you, me, and everyone else "in the know" when the BDI drops so drastically!
The whole world is truly tied at the hip, as the saying goes! Brother, I'm on board with you 100%! I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to send me the link (which I will watch by this weekend). You hit the nail on the head in that 98% of the people in this country have not one clue what the BDI is, what it indicates; nothing!
The truly sad thing, to me at least, is that the masses of "useful idiots" (as Lenin called them) have no clue what is going on around them, yet they so eagerly and boisterously vote! I'm afraid that this country is going to have to go through a considerable amount of pain before the uneducated, ignorant (and I won't say stupid because they simply have not been taught) masses "get it". I am a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver.
I design and build large power plants for a living. Without giving the whole story of my career believe me when I say that in the next few years this country will see rolling blackouts (and that's not taking into account another terrorist attack on our country!). If the people in this country knew what I know first hand about our power grid and the condition of our (very old!) power plants in this country, they would probably crap themselves in fear!
The only surprise to me is that the blackouts didn't happen this past summer, but that was due to 2008 being a cooler year than expected. The bottom line is, our power grid (and for that matter, much of the infrastructure in this country) is tapped out and actually older than its expected life.
And yet, our wonderful federal government, elected by us "useful idiots", continues to spend, spend, spend like drunken sailors. Why? Well, because that's what we've "always" done! It sickens me! Take a look at www.chrismartenson.com This fellow has his head screwed on straight!
Take it from me brother, I build power plants for a living. But I still have a basement full of not just guns, ammo, and food, but of fuel! White gas, propane bottle's, even sterno & alcohol type cans. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already, STOCK UP on a fuel supply, at least so that you can cook and have some modest heat if you don't have a fireplace!
Consider what you have and ask yourself if you have enough to get you through a month, 2 months? Three? God Bless Sam's Club for carrying Coleman fuel and propane and such... I'll share more of my knowledge (limited though it is) with you later on. Peace be with you brother.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst! Believe or don't, the choice is yours but at the very least I suggest you start doing the research on this subject or you may be starving in a few short months.
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