The Chinese Wheelbarrow

SUBHEAD: How to downsize a transport network to a sustainable human scale system.

By Kris De Decker on 29 December 2011 for the Low Tech Magazine - (http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/12/the-chinese-wheelbarrow.html)


Image above: A Chinese wheelbarrow in use today. 

For being such a seemingly ordinary vehicle, the wheelbarrow has a surprisingly exciting history. This is especially true in the East, where it became a universal means of transportation for both passengers and goods, even over long distances.

The Chinese wheelbarrow - which was driven by human labour, beasts of burden and wind power - was of a different design than its European counterpart. By placing a large wheel in the middle of the vehicle instead of a smaller wheel in front, one could easily carry three to six times as much weight than if using a European wheelbarrow.

The one-wheeled vehicle appeared around the time the extensive Ancient Chinese road infrastructure began to disintegrate. Instead of holding on to carts, wagons and wide paved roads, the Chinese turned their focus to a much more easily maintainable network of narrow paths designed for wheelbarrows. The Europeans, faced with similar problems at the time, did not adapt and subsequently lost the option of smooth land transportation for almost one thousand years.

Transport options over land
Before the arrival of the steam engine, people have always preferred to move cargo over water instead of over land, because it takes much less effort to do so. But whenever this was not possible, there remained essentially three options for transporting goods: carrying them (using aids like a yoke, or none at all), tying them to pack animals (donkeys, mules, horses, camels, goats), or loading them onto a wheeled cart or wagon (which could be pulled by humans or animals).

Carrying stuff was the easiest way to go; there was no need to build roads or vehicles, nor to feed animals. But humans can carry no more than 25 to 40 kg over long distances, which made this a labour-intensive method if many goods had to be transported. Pack animals can take about 50 to 150 kg, but they have to be fed, are slightly more demanding than people in terms of terrain, and they can be stubborn. Pack animals also require one or more people to guide them.

When carrying goods - whether by person or by pack animals - the load is not only moved in the desired direction but it also undergoes an up and down movement with every step. This is a significant waste of energy, especially when transporting heavy goods over long distances. Dragging stuff does not have this drawback, but in that case you have friction to fight. Pulling a wheeled vehicle is therefore the most energy-efficient choice, because the cargo only undergoes a horizontal motion and friction is largely overcome by the wheels. Wheeled carts and wagons, whether powered by animals or people, can take more weight for the same energy input, but this advantage comes at a price; you need to build fairly smooth and level roads, and you need to build a vehicle. If the vehicle is drawn by an animal, the animal needs to be fed.

When all these factors are taken into consideration, the wheelbarrow could be considered the most efficient transport option over land, prior to the Industrial Revolution. It could take a load similar to that of a pack animal, yet it was powered by human labour and not prone to disobedience.

Compared to a two-wheeled cart or a four-wheeled wagon, a wheelbarrow was much cheaper to build because wheel construction was a labour-intensive job. Although the wheelbarrow required a road, a very narrow path (about as wide as the wheel) sufficed, and it could be bumpy. The two handles gave an intimacy of control that made the wheelbarrow very manoeuvrable.

East and West: a very different story
The wheelbarrow tells a very distinct history in both the Western and the Eastern world. Although to this date its origins remain obscure, it is clear that the vehicle played a much larger role in the East than in the West. While in recent years there has surfaced some evidence that the wheelbarrow might have been used on construction sites by the Ancient Greeks at the end of the fifth century BC, there is no mention at all of wheelbarrows in Ancient Rome (although that does not exclude the possibility that they in fact did use them).

The first sound evidence of the wheelbarrow in the Western world only emerged in the early thirteenth century AD. In China, their use is documented extensively from the second century AD onwards - more than a thousand years earlier. It is interesting to note that the wheelbarrow appeared at least 2,000 years later than two-wheeled carts and four-wheeled wagons.

Handbarrow
When the wheelbarrow finally caught on in Europe, it was used for short distance cargo transport only, notably in construction, mining and agriculture. It was not a road vehicle. In the East, however, the wheelbarrow was also applied to medium and long distance travel, carrying both cargo and passengers. This use - which had no Western counterpart - was only possible because of a difference in the design of the Chinese vehicle. The Western wheelbarrow was very ill-adapted to carry heavy weights over longer distances, whereas the Chinese design excelled at it.

On the European wheelbarrow the wheel was (and is) invariably placed at the furthest forward end of the barrow, so that the weight of the burden is equally distributed between the wheel and the man pushing it. In fact, the wheel substitutes for the front man of the handbarrow or stretcher, the carrying tool that was replaced by the wheelbarrow (illustration on the right).

Superior Chinese design
In the characteristic Chinese design a much larger wheel was (and is) placed in the middle of the wheelbarrow, so that it takes the full weight of the burden with the human operator only guiding the vehicle. In fact, in this design the wheel substitutes for a pack animal. In other words, when the load is 100 kg, the operator of a European wheelbarrow carries a load of 50 kg while the operator of a Chinese wheelbarrow carries nothing. He (or she) only has to push or pull, and steer.

 
 Image above: Typical Chinese wheel barrow in Shanghai early 20th century. From original article.

The result was an extremely powerful and agile vehicle. In 1176 AD, the Chinese writer Tsêng Min-Hsing noted enthusiastically:

"The device is so efficient that it can take the place of three men; moreover, it is safe and steady when passing along dangerous places (cliff paths, etcetera). Ways which are as winding as the bowels of a sheep will not defeat it."

Drawing of chinese wheelbarrowThe Chinese wheelbarrow - which was also widely in use in present-day Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos - originally appeared in two basic variants. One was originally termed the "wooden ox" ("mu niu"), which had the shafts projecting in front (so that it was pulled), while the other was termed the "gliding horse" ("liu ma"), which has the shafts projecting behind (so that it was pushed). A combination of both types was also used, being pulled and pushed by two men. From these two basic types, many variations evolved. Later, the Chinese also used western-style wheelbarrows alongside their own design.


 Image above: Wheelbarrow used for passenger travel in early 20th century Shanghai. As many as six people were typically carried. From (http://irapl.altervista.org/cpm/thumbnails2.php?search=Shanghai+-+two+Chinese+men+being+carried+in+wheelbarrow).
 
Western praise
The characteristic vehicle stupefied Western foreigners who visited China during the early modern period. In "Science and civilization in China", Joseph Needham quotes the Dutch-American merchant Andreas Everardus van Braam Houckgeest, who visited the country in 1797 and gives an excellent description of the contraption:
"Among the carriages employed in this country is a wheelbarrow, singularly constructed, and employed alike for the conveyance of persons and goods. According as it is more or less heavy loaded, it is directed by one or two persons, the one dragging it after him, while the other pushes it forward by the shafts. The wheel, which is very large in proportion to the barrow, is placed in the centre of the part on which the load is laid, so that the whole weight bears upon the axle, and the barrow men support no part of it, but serve merely to move it forward, and keep it in equilibrum.=
The wheel is as it were cased up in a frame made of laths, and covered over with a thin plank, four or five inches wide. On each side of the barrow is a projection, on which the goods are put, or which serves as a seat for the passengers. A Chinese traveller sits on one side, and thus serves to counter-balance his baggage, which is placed on the other. If his bagage is heavier than himself, it is balanced equally on the two sides, and he seats himself on the board over the wheel, the barrow being purposely contrived to suit such occasions.
The sight of this wheelbarrow thus loaded, was entirely new to me. I could not help remarking its singularity, at the same time that I admired the simplicity of the invention. I even think, that in many cases such a barrow would be found much superior to ours."
 
 Image above: Application of wheelbarrows during flood control projects, Shandong, before 1973. From original article.
 
Wheelbarrow trains
The American soil scientist F.H. King shows himself equally impressed in his 1911 publication "Farmers of Forty Centuries":

"We had observed long processions of wheelbarrow men moving from the canals through the streets carrying large loads of [crops] in bundles a foot long and five inches in diameter. These had come from the country on boats each carrying tons of the succulent leaves and stems. We had counted as many as fifty wheelbarrow men passing a given point on the street in quick succession, each carrying 300 to 500 pounds of [crops] and moving so rapidly that it was not easy to keep pace with them, as we learned in following one of the trains during twenty minutes to its destination. During this time not a man in the train haltened or slackened his pace. This same type of vehicle, too, is one of the common means of transporting people, especially Chinese women, and four, six and even eight may be seen riding together, propelled by a single wheelbarrow man."
Rudolf Hommel, in his 1937 book "China at work" (based on a 1921 travel through the country), seems to be most intrigued by the ingenuity of the low-tech design, going into technical details:
"While there are many kinds of wheelbarrows, the one shown [here] is typical of them all; the principle always being the same, i.e. one large wheel surrounded by a framework, guarding the upper part of the wheel from contact with merchandise or persons transported. The two long shafts, held at a proper distance from each other by two crosspieces, terminate in the handlebars, and form the basis of the whole vehicle. Into them is mortised the lattice work which surrounds the wheel. On each side a carrying frame is formed by curved bars attached to the main shafts by crosspieces.
"The wheel, about 3 feet in diameter, is made entirely of wood and has two iron bands around the hub, and an iron tire. The axle is made of some very strong wood. From the frame of the wheelbarrow two pieces extend downward with the bearing holes for the axle. This looks rather precarious, and yet these pieces stand up splendidly under the heavy strain of immense loads and the considerable bumping over the miserable roads. These wheelbarrows are masterpieces of joinery and special care is bestowed on the selection of the best grades of hard wood for all parts. This description would not be complete without mentioning the squeaking of the unoiled axle, a nightmare to foreigners, which does not bother the Chinese in the least."

Low-tech masterpieces
Just as other Western observers, Hommel watched the vehicles pass by in admiration:
"Besides transporting goods with these wheelbarrows, the Chinese use them also for passengers. I have seen as many as six people on them, three sitting on each side with their feet dangling down. If only one person is conveyed the driver balances the wheelbarrow skilfully with the wheel tilted at a considerable angle from the vertical. If a peasant wants to take a pig to the market, he saves himself all the trouble of guiding the recalcitrant beast, by tying it upon the wheelbarrow and wheeling it to the market."
Mobile forts
As so many other innovative technologies, the Chinese wheelbarrow was orginally developed for military purposes. The first records mention its use for supplying food to the army. The wheelbarrow gave the Chinese armies such an advantage in moving goods that it was kept secret - early Chinese writings talk about wheelbarrows in code. True to its origin, the wheelbarrow remained in use for military operations, though not only to supply food to soldiers. In 1176, Tsêng Min-Hsing alluded to the military use of the wheelbarrow in forming protective layers.
His words are quoted by Joseph Needham:
"Not only is it useful for transporting army rations, but at need it can be employed as a defensive obstruction against cavalry. Since the digging of trenches and moats, and the building of forts, take time, the wheelbarrows can be deployed round the perimeter so that the enemy's horses cannot easily pass over. This kind of vehicle can readily go forward and withdraw, and can be used for any purpose. It might well be called a 'mobile fort'."

 Image above: Vietnamese style wheelbarrow carrying a pig. From original article.
 
Watching the Vietnamese wheelbarrow pictured above, the defensive use of the vehicle is easy to imagine. According to Needham, it was the Chinese with their wheelbarrows who pioneered the use of 'laagers' or 'mobile forts' as a defence against the onslaught of cavalry, a tactical system that remained in use during later times using two-wheeled carts.

Animal traction
A remarkable feature of the Chinese wheelbarrow was the combined use of human and animal traction, which became common from an early date on. This practice can be seen in a 1126 painting by Chang Tsê-Tuan, which is described by Joseph Needham:
"The painting depicts the popular life of the capital Khaifêng at the time of the spring festival. Many wheelbarrows are moving or stationary in the streets of the city. All but one have the large central wheel and some are very heavily laden. During the loading and unloading the wheelbarrows rest on the side-legs. One is being pushed by a single man, and in all cases the porter steadies the vehicle by the shafts behind, while traction is effected either by one man in shafts and one mule or donkey with collar-harness and traces, or by two animals side by side similarly attached."

Image above: Chinese wheelbarrow being used with donkey as draft animal. From original article.
 
The latter configuration is shown again in a picture in the Thien Kung Khai Wu (1637), where in the text we read:
"The northern one-wheeled barrow (tu yuan chhê) is pushed by one man from behind, with (one or more) donkeys pulling it from the front; it is hired by those who dislike riding (on horseback). The travellers sit on opposite sides to balance it, and a mat roof shields them from sun and wind. This kind of conveyance goes as far north as Chhang-an and Chi-ning, and also comes to the capital. When not carrying passengers these barrows will take as much as 4 or 5 tan of goods [about 6 cwt or 300 kg]. The one-wheeled barrow (tu lun thui chhe) of the south is also pushed by one man (but without animal aid), and carries only 2 tan. When it meets pot-holes (in the road) it has to stop; in any case it seldom goes more than 100 li [50 km]."

Image above: Giclee print of Chinese peasant with a wheelbarrow under sail in 1811. From (http://www.art.com/products/p1775791191-sa-i4204254/chinese-peasant-with-a-wheelbarrow-under-sail-1811.htm).

Wind powered wheelbarrows
An even more surprising method to augment human power in moving the wheelbarrow was the use of sails. The date of the introduction of the sailing wheelbarrow is unknown, but Joseph Needham notes that this contraption (the chia fan chhê) was still widely used in China at the time of writing (1965), notably in Honan and in the coastal provinces such as Shantung. Rudolf Hommel and F.H. King also spotted and described the vehicles. While some sails were very simple pieces of cloth, others were perfect miniatures of the ones used on a junk (a Chinese sailboat), easily adjustable by the driver.
The use of auxiliary power from animals and wind (the two were sometimes combined) made it possible to design larger wheelbarrows that could take more cargo. Again, it is worthy to quote Andreas Everardus van Braam Houckgeest, writing in 1797:

"Near the southern border of Shantung one finds a kind of wheelbarrow much larger than that which I have been describing, and drawn by a horse or a mule. But judge of my surprise when today I saw a whole fleet of wheelbarrows of the same size. I say, with deliberation, a fleet, for each of them had a sail, mounted on a small mast exactly fixed in a socket arranged at the forward end of the barrow." 
"The sail, made of matting, or more often of cloth, is five or six feet [1.5 to 2 m] high, and three or four feet broad,, with stays, sheets, and halyards, just as on a Chinese ship. The sheets join the shafts of the wheelbarrow and can thus be manipulated by the man in charge."
"One had to grant the apparatus was not a freak, but an arrangement by which, with a favourable wind, the wheelbarrow porters could be greatly assisted. Otherwise such a complicated thing would have been only a bizarre curiosity. I could not help admiring the combination, and was filled with sincere pleasure in seeing twenty or so of these sailing-wheelbarrows setting their course one behind the other."
 
Image above: Sail assisted wheel barrow near Xi'an, China in 1905. From (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheelbarrow).
 
Wheelbarrows on rails
The Chinese wheelbarrow kept evolving even after the arrival of the Industrial evolution, adapting modern materials and wheels. Another noteworthy example of this is the so-called 'piepkar', which showed up on the island of Billiton at the coast of Sumatra at the turn of the twentieth century. There, a Dutch tin mining company was faced with very bad roads. The solution? A great example of combining Eastern and Western knowledge; wheelbarrows equipped with very narrow wheels, guided by iron rails. The technology - which was in use from the 1880s to around 1920 - reminds of the horse-drawn rail cars that became popular in Western cities at the time.

The decay of the Chinese road infrastructure
The importance of the Chinese wheelbarrow can only be understood in the context of the Chinese transportation network. Prior to the third century AD, China had an extensive and well-maintained road network suited for animal powered carts and wagons. It was only surpassed in length by the Ancient Roman road network. The Chinese road infrastructure attained a total length of about 25,000 miles (40,000 km), compared to almost 50,000 miles (80,000 km) for the Roman system.

The Chinese and Roman road systems were built (independently) over the course of five centuries during the same period in history. Curiously, due to (unrelated) political reasons, both systems also started to disintegrate side by side from the third century AD onwards, and herein lies the explanation for the success of the Chinese wheelbarrow. As we have seen, the one-wheeled vehicle appeared during this period, and this is no coincidence. Increasingly, it was the only vehicle that could be operated on the deteriorating road network. As F.H. King observed:

"For adaptability to the worst road conditions no vehicle equals the wheelbarrow, progressing by one wheel and two feet".
In 1937, Rudolf Hommel goes on complaining about the Chinese roads:

"In olden times, excellent wide roads were in existence in China, suitable for chariots, coaches, and wagons of many descriptions. Present-day conditions show a different picture, especially in Southern and Central China where the two-wheeled cart is not known. The splendid roads are gone, and in their place, we find only narrow paths, scarcely wide enough for foot passengers and wheelbarrows. The two-wheeled cart survived only in North China under the sway of the court of Peking, where the important business of victualizing the capital was sufficient urge to keep up the roads."
"The Chinese peasant, ever intent to gain more ground for the cultivation of his crops, has gradually reduced the width of former highways, unhampered by a watchful government. In fact, the greedy officials winked at such encroachments, as long as they have been thereby enabled to exact increased contributions in taxes from the hardworking peasants. It is only within the last five years that an extensive program of road building has been carried out."

Image above: Rural wheelbarrow/foot path near Chungking, China. From original article.
 
Pathways designed for wheelbarrows
\However, it seems that Rudolf Hommel got it wrong, and was looking at the Chinese roads with a Western bias. Joseph Needham tells a more positive story, noting that the network of wide roads was gradually replaced by an informal, low-tech infrastructure that was not less ingenious than the wheelbarrows that operated on it (see his pictures on the right and below). The Chinese answer to a decaying road infrastructure went much further than the adaptation of their vehicles:
"In many periods the government was interested primarily, and sometimes exclusively, in those roads and water-ways which were significant for tax-grain transportation and the conveyance of official messages. The upkeep of a multitude of local roads and paved pathways devolved, therefore, upon the people themselves, acting in their co-operative capacity under village elders and small-town worthies. In this context, religious associations, such as the Taoists Yellow Turbans about 180 AD, later so politically important, or the Buddhist fraternities afterwards, played a significant part. Making good roads was nothing less than a pious duty.
Thus in the course of time, quite apart from the Ancient and medieval imperial highways, China's landscape became shot through with millions of miles of well-paved paths, suitable chiefly for pedestrians, porters with carrying poles, pushers of wheelbarrows, and men carrying litters. Rough unpaved cart-tracks predominated only in the Eastern plains. Those who, like the author, have followed these paved ways past woods and rice-fields for many a mile cannot think of them without intense nostalgia. There was a long tradition of such privately initiated roads going back to the Han or even earlier, and their total mileage far outstripped that of the government main roads as the ages passed."

Interestingly, the modern, twentieth-century road network that appeared in China, and that Hommel was alluding to in 1937, did not immediately gave way to the automobile, but to another low-tech vehicle that is a worthy competitor for the wheelbarrow: the bicycle, a product of the Industrial Revolution that is even more efficient. It will probably take us (and the 21st-century Chinese) another few decades before we realise how smart the Chinese transport infrastructure was.

The decay of the Western road infrastructure
The use of wheelbarrows in combination with specially designed narrow pathways made land transportation in China considerably more efficient than in Europe for a period of almost 1,500 years. Today, criticism on the omnipresent automobile is often ridiculed by saying that we cannot go back to horses and carts, without realizing that the combination of horses and carts is far from evident and not as low-tech as it seems. History clearly shows that an extensive road infrastructure is a very vulnerable thing.

Europe was also left with a deteriorating road network after the demise of the Roman Empire, though the Europeans could buy some time. Because it was sturdier (using piles of stone and concrete rather than the early form of asphalt applied by the Chinese), the Roman road infrastructure remained relatively useful until about the 11th century AD, after which it was largely abandoned. But even before that time, the destruction of bridges and road facilities by the barbarians - or by the locals in order to defend themselves against the barbarians - gradually diminished its usefulness. Lack of maintenance and the plundering of paving stone did the rest. Moreover, the appearance of new towns and capitals (such as Paris) required new routes that did not always coincide with the existing Roman roads.

Contrary to the Chinese, the Europeans did not develop a new vehicle and appropriate infrastructure of paths to make up for the loss of the Ancient highways. New roads appeared during the economic revival of the late Middle Ages, but these were not paved or hardened in any other way. This made them at best inefficient in good weather and nearly impassable when (and after) it rained. Furthermore, because of the absence of foundations, soil erosion caused by heavy rains could wash entire roads away. As a result, the use of carts and wagons all but disappeared in medieval Europe, while nothing else came in place. For people, the options of land transportation again became limited to walking or - only for the rich - horseback riding.

Cargo was most often transported by pack animals (mostly donkeys and mules, sometimes horses), or simply by carrying it. With the exception of England, where wheeled traffic resurged from as early as the 14th century in some places, and France, where some sturdier roads (unpaved but with foundations) appeared in some regions during the late 16th century, smooth operating wheeled traffic only made a comeback in Europe during the nineteenth century - at the same time as the first railroads appeared.

Ox drawn carts
Carts and wagons drawn by oxen remained in use throughout the centuries in Europe, for heavy or large-sized loads that could not be transported by rivers or by sea. However, road conditions often required large spans of oxen, which made wheeled transportation of heavy loads ridiculously expensive and limited to very short distances. Because of friction, the nature of a road surface greatly determines how efficient wheeled transport will be. In "Energy in world history", Vaclac Smil writes:
"On a smooth, hard, dry road, a force of only about 30 kg is needed to wheel a 1 tonne load. A loose, gravelly surface may easily call for five times as much draft. On sandy or muddy roads the multiple can be seven to ten times higher."
This had important consequences, as we have seen in the article about the pre-industrial use of fossil fuels. Many countries could not capitalize on most of their energy resources, be it wood or peat or coal, because transporting them over land took more time and energy (in terms of animal feed) than they could afford.

If they would have been aware of the Chinese wheelbarrow, the Europeans could have followed a similar strategy as the Chinese, using their limited resources to construct and maintain smooth but narrow pathways (and bridges) while downsizing their vehicles. As was noted in several of the historical sources mentioned above, the Chinese wheelbarrow, aided by a second man, an animal, or wind power, could transport up to 300 kg of cargo. This was almost as much as the maximum allowed cargo for horse and ox drawn carts in Ancient Rome (326 kg and 490 kg respectively).

Lessons for the future
Of course, it was not only the wheelbarrow that kept Chinese communication running after the second century AD. At least as important was the impressive network of artificial canals that complemented it. This infrastructure became ever more important after the detoriation of the road network. For example, the Grand Canal, which ran from Hangzhou to Bejing over a distance of 1800 km, was completed in 1327 after 700 years of digging.

In Europe, the first (relatively modest) canals were only built during the 16th century, and most of them only appeared in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The Chinese wheelbarrow alone could not have given Europe an equally effective transport infrastructure as the Chinese, but there is no doubt that it could have made life in medieval Europe a great deal easier.

The story of the Chinese wheelbarrow also teaches us an obvious lesson for the future. While many of us today are not even prepared to change their limousine for a small car, let alone their automobile for a bicycle, we forget that neither one of these vehicles can function without suited roads. Building and maintaining roads is very hard work, and history shows that it is far from evident to keep up with it.

In this regard, it is important to keep in mind that we won't be as lucky as the medieval Europeans who inherited one of the best and most durable road networks in the world. Our road infrastructure - mostly based on asphalt - is more similar to that of the Ancient Chinese and will disintegrate at a much faster rate if we lose our ability to maintain it. The Chinese wheelbarrow - and with it many other forgotten low-tech transportation options - might one day come in very handy again.
Kris De Decker (edited by Shameez Joubert)

Sources:

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Storm Surge of Decentralization

SUBHEAD: We need to emulate the herd animals and cross the river all at once. It's our best hope of achieving workable, simpler, decentralized future.

By Nicole Fosse on 3 January 2012 for The Automatic Earth -
(http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2012/01/january-3-2012-storm-surge-of.html)


Image above: Victim of Desert Rat War reaches Phonehenge. From (http://gregg-rice.blogspot.com/2011/09/desert-rat-war.html).


One of our consistent themes at TAE has been not expecting solutions to come from the top down. Existing centralized systems depend on dwindling tax revenues, which will dry up to a tremendous extent over the next few years as economic activity falls off a cliff and property prices plummet. We have already seen cuts to services and increases in taxes and user fees, and we can expect a great deal more of that dynamic as central authorities emulate hypothermic bodies.

In other words, they will cut off the circulation to the fingers and toes in order to preserve the body temperature of the core. This is, of course, a survival strategy, from the point of view of the core. But it does nothing good for the prospects of ordinary people, who represent the fingers and toes.

Centralized systems also depend on the political legitimacy that has been conferred upon them as a result of public trust in them to serve the common interest. This trust is rapidly breaking down in an ever-expanding list of places, as ordinary people realize that their interests have been betrayed in favour of the well connected.

Those who played fraudulent ponzi games with other people's money, and were in the best position to know what could result, have been bailed out time and time again, while the little guy has been told to expect more austerity measures. Protest is inevitable as political legitimacy fades. We are already seeing it spread like wildfire, which is exactly what one would expect given that human beings internalize, reflect and act on the emotions of others.

Collective social mood that turns on a dime is very much part of what it means to be human. The job of national and international politicians in contractionary times is typically to make a bad situation worse as expensively as possible, as they attempt to rescue the dying paradigm that has conveyed so much personal advantage in their direction. That paradigm is one of centralization - the accumulation of surpluses from a broad periphery at the centre of power.

However, the wealth conveyors of the past are breaking down, meaning that the periphery that can be drawn upon is shrinking. As the periphery shrinks, the remaining region within the grip of power can expect to be squeezed harder and harder. 'Twas ever thus. Rome did the same thing, squeezing the peasants for tithes until they abandoned their land and threw in their lot with the surrounding barbarians.

Even if politicians were informed of what is unfolding on their watch, understood it, and were minded to act in favour of the common man as a result (which is itself unlikely), there would be nothing they could do. They are too deeply embedded in a system which is thoroughly hostage to vested interests and characterized by an extreme inertia that would drastically limit their freedom of action.

Such systems cannot be responsive within the timeframe that would actually matter in a financial crisis, where the risk is cascading system failure, potentially in a short period of time. Everything they might do would be too complex, too expensive and too slow to do much good. If we expect top-down solutions we will be disappointed, and more to the point, we will be unprepared to face a period of rapid change.

By the time we realize that the cavalry is not coming, it may well be too late to do anything useful. This is disheartening only to the extent that we see no other way to address our predicament. Fortunately, other strategies exist beyond attempting to preserve the unpreservable. What we must do is to decentralize - to build parallel systems to deliver the most basic goods and services in ways that are simple, cheap and responsive to rapidly changing circumstance.

We will not, of course, be able to provide for the level of wants our societies were previously able to cater to, but we can provide the most basic necessities if we prepare in advance. The key aspect is to align our expectations with reality, because the essence of our psychological conundrum is our sense that business as usual is a non-negotiable state of affairs that must continue. It will not continue because it cannot.

Business as usual is only non-negotiable in the sense that reality will not negotiate, it will dictate, and we will have to live within its parameters. There are many forms of decentralization - of opting out of the herd before it goes over the cliff. What they have in common is local resilience, a focus on local self-reliance and a thorough grounding in relationships of trust. As economies contract, so does the trust horizon. Where there is no trust, systems cease to function effectively.

Local initiatives work because they operate within the social space where trust still exists, and as they function, they reinforce those foundational relationships. We need to be thinking in terms of local currencies, time banking (ie bartering skills), small transport networks, basic local healthcare, neighbourhood watch programs, adapting properties to multiple dwellings and permaculture initiatives that can rebuild soil fertility over time.

Also: rediscovery of local knowledge as to life conditions in the absence of current creature comforts, removing obstructive bylaws, small-scale food production free from structural dependencies on expensive and energy-intensive inputs, community power initiatives, communal water access, basic water treatment (like aid agencies employ in the third world), and perhaps intentional communities. This is not meant to be an exhaustive list.

There are many possibilities, and their relative importance will vary according to location and circumstances. So will their chance of success in a world that is path-dependent (ie where a society has collectively come from will shape how that society will respond to external stressors).

The more we know about our region and our neighbours, the better our chances. It is important to realize, however, that we are not going to be left in peace to do that which needs to be done. Solutions do not come from the top down, but interference does, because decentralization represents a threat to wealth concentration at the centre, and that is the goal of all human political systems. Wealth is extracted from the periphery in favour of the centre, and the centre has an inexhaustible appetite. We are expected to pay our dues to that system, however onerous, not to try to reduce our own burden or that of our community.

As the centre seeks continually to solve the problems raised by excess complexity with more complexity, it also raises the cost (in terms of money and resources) of doing everything it touches. The periphery is then expected to cover the cost of the regulation that makes its own existence more precarious. That regulation may even make life so expensive and difficult that parts of the periphery are driven towards a very marginal existence or out of an area altogether.

Cumbersome, impenetrable and poorly communicated regulations are a recipe for raising revenues through fines for non-compliance, therefore we can expect worse governance to be implemented in the interests of the centre. Fines may be completely disproportionate to the scale of the 'offence'. Where such regulations are devised with no transparency or accountability, but plenty of discretion on behalf of enforcement personnel, they may also become an engine of corruption.

This is a very common circumstance in many parts of the world. I wanted to explore some examples of central authorities attempting to preserve wealth conveyance at the expense of attempts to adapt to a new reality, so that we might better understand what we are up against. See, for instance, the case of the desert dwellers of Los Angeles County, many of whom have been living self-reliant lives for decades. They are being pursued by distant authorities for supposed nuisance violations, yet they are disturbing no one.

Their 'crime' is the very self-sufficiency that allows them to exist independent of centralized systems, and therefore affordably. They are being told to connect to services such as mains power, at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars, or to destroy their own property and leave with nothing.


Video above: Nuisance Abatement issues in Antelope Valley. From original article (http://youtu.be/yw3RiMdS7sE).



Local organic food initiatives are often more contentious. Industrial agriculture and food processing corporations are very powerful, to the point of having subverted regulatory mechanisms ostensibly geared towards the public good, but which now serve to safe-guard corporate profits and market share. If groups of people are allowed to assert their independence by opting out of the corporate food machine, then they are less subject to external control, as well as ceasing to be profit providers.

Organic agriculture therefore faces substantial regulatory barriers, and, increasingly, extreme over-reactions by central authorities. See, by way of example, the case of Rawesome Foods in California. The cooperative had become a private club in order to be allowed to provide raw milk to those who choose to avoid the over-processed commercial variety. Nevertheless, they were subjected to a raid by armed police officers with guns drawn. Opting out of the system in order to share resources constitutes a threat, and that threat is being targeted.

Heavy-handed food regulation has descended on many small farmers in recent years. They face an uphill battle against the centralizing impulse. A regulatory regime that imposes huge costs on small operations makes it very difficult for them to compete. Some of the enforcement incidents are outrageous. See for instance the film Farmageddon. Jim Puplava at Financial Sense Newshour did a Must Listen interview recently with its creator, which makes eye-opening listening to put it mildly.

Simply put, it is getting more and more difficult to operate outside of the corporate structure, particularly in relation to food. As Joel Salatin observed in a classic article on the subject of organic farming - Everything I Want to Do Is Illegal. That means it is also getting more and more difficult in some places to purchase healthy food, as opposed to industrial food-like substances genetically-modified, tainted with all manner of chemicals, stuffed with addictive fillers such as high-fructose corn syrup, and vastly over-processed. The option to eat simple, wholesome, unprocessed, unadulterated, nutritious food is being whittled away, ironically on health grounds, just as demand for real food is skyrocketing.

It is also falling foul of spurious ordinances to protect the uniformity of neighbourhoods by defending them from vegetables growing where anyone can see them. Jail terms can be threatened for the crime of seeking seeking to be more independent. Occasionally the corporate world will explicitly complain that eating unprocessed food kills jobs, but it is more common to approach the issue tangentially rather than head on. Although not yet a reality, direct taxation of home-produced food has been floated. Unfortunately this idea is all too plausible. States are indeed desperate for revenue, and the connections politicians have with large corporations gives them a direct incentive to protect the profit margins of those who feather their nests:
I heard a state legislator today on the radio talking about taxing home gardens that grow vegetables and other produce. This state is in serious economic trouble and they are looking at every possible source of revenue. The legislator stated that many home gardeners sell their produce at flea markets and do not pay any sales tax, that the produce grown even if not sold amounts to income and should be taxed.
In 2006, Britain was already contemplating taxing gardens, not yet for the vegetables they produce, but simply for the property tax revenue stream government could extract for any distinguishable positive feature of a property. It is not that much of a stretch to imagine an attempt at taxing produce, although this would obviously be very difficult to enforce. Fortunately, there do exist places where the opposite approach is gaining a foothold. Long may they continue. And spread. At an even more basic level, seed control threatens both independence and biodiversity:
Two thirds of the 1.2 billion poorest people in the world live in rural areas and are dependent on traditional agriculture. They do not have the financial means to buy commercially available seed or the input factors needed to cultivate them. However, they often have long experience with, and a profound understanding of, local plant diversity within crops such as grains, potatoes, vegetables and fruit. By cultivating and developing these crops they are contributing to the preservation and development of global plant genetic diversity, which constitutes the basis for the world's food production.
Legislation ostensibly aimed at food safety is being written vaguely and broadly enough to confer unaccountable discretion on enforcement agencies already in a state of regulatory capture. The very necessary processes of seed saving from year to year, and seed banking, are well on the way to being criminalized, for the sake of protecting profit margins:
But now the effort is to take over the whole game, going after even these small sources of biodiversity - by simply defining seeds as food and then all farmers' affordable mechanisms for harvesting (collecting), sorting (seed cleaning) and storing (seed banking or saving) as too dirty to be safe for food. Set the standard for "food safety" and certification high enough that no one can afford it and punish anyone who tries to save seed in ways that have worked fine for thousands of years, with a million dollar a day fine and/or ten years in prison, and presto, you have just criminalized seed banking. The penalties are tremendous, the better to protect us from nothing dangerous whatsoever, but to make monopoly over seed absolutely absolute. One is left with control over farmers, an end to seed exchanges, an end to organic seed companies, an end to university programs developing nice normal hybrids, and an end to democracy - reducing us to abject dependence on corporations for food and gratitude even for genetically engineered food and at any price.
On the other side of the Atlantic, EU seed control regulations are also making it difficult, and potentially expensive, to protect biodiversity:
[In February 2008], in France, the independent seed-saving and selling Association Kokopelli were fined €35,000 after being taken to court by corporate seed merchant Baumaux. Their crime was selling traditional and rare seed varieties which weren't on the official EU-approved list – and, therefore, illegal to sell – thus giving them an 'unfair trading advantage'. As the European Commission met this week to prepare new legislation for seed control, due in 2009, which will further restrict the geographic movement and range of crop varieties, this ruling will set a dangerous precedent. Kokopelli, the non-profit French group set up in 1999 to safeguard endangered seed strains, may be driven out of existence by the fine. Their focus is biodiversity, food security, and the development of sustainable organic agriculture and seed networks in the 'global south'. They have created one of the largest independent collections in Europe – with over 2500 sorts of vegetable, flower and cereals. Other non-government seedbanks are held by large agro-industrial companies like Limagrain, Syngenta and Pioneer – and guess what their main interest is money rather than starving subsistence farmers. You may think that in an era of mass extinction it would be a no-brainer that we need to protect biodiversity and the heritage of the crop varieties which have been build up over centuries… but no. Since the 1970s, laws in the UK and Europe mean that to sell seeds, the strain needs to be registered – and everything else becomes 'outlaw' seeds, illegal to sell. In the UK it costs £300 per year to maintain the registration and £2000 to register a 'new' one – which all disadvantages smaller organisations. Garden Organic in the UK run a Heritage Seed Library, and they get around the law by not selling 'outlaw' seeds, but getting individual gardeners to become 'seed guardians' who pass around seeds for free to other members of the Library. Unlike other seedbanks, seeds are not kept in cold storage, but are living species which are continually grown and allowed to adapt to new environmental factors. Another law-busting approach is seed swaps – which in recent years have sprouted up and down the country. People freely share seeds for another year's growing – a co-operative way of maintaining genetic diversity.
Controlling the supply of necessities in order to generate monopoly profits is not new and is not limited to food. See for instance the erstwhile Bolivian water privatization that resulted in a requirement to obtain a permit even to capture rainwater. If access to affordable options is limited, people are forced to pay the rentiers their monopoly profits. Collecting rainwater has been illegal in many western US states as well, since water rights are separate to property rights:
Like many Western states, Colorado employs a complicated system of water use known as prior allocation, which severs water rights from other property rights. The system preserves an 80-year-old compact Colorado signed with other Western states (as well as a separate federal pact with Mexico) divvying up runoff from the Colorado River. It means you can buy a parcel of land in Colorado, but the right to any precipitation that falls on that land likely belongs to someone two houses over, two counties over, or even in another state. It might also belong to a state or local government, but it probably doesn't belong to you. Under Colorado law, then, collecting rainwater or reusing "gray water" from bathtubs or washing machines violates the rights of someone who may not see that water for months.
The recent change to the law to allow small-scale rainwater collection is a belated improvement. Previously it was illegal even to sell rainwater collection equipment.
"I was so willing to go to jail for catching water on my roof and watering my garden," said Tom Bartels, a video producer here in southwestern Colorado, who has been illegally watering his vegetables and fruit trees from tanks attached to his gutters. "But now I'm not a criminal.

Ben Elton's brilliant (Must See) 1990 play Gasping explored the trend towards corporate control of necessities, and illustrated the point, taken to its logical conclusion:
Lockheart Industries are looking for a new product to make them huge sums of money. Their whizz-kid Philip comes up with the superb idea of designer air - Perrier for the lungs, in the form of their patent-pending Suck And Blow machine. For a while, all is well, and the machines are a huge success, as sales massively exceed all projections. But greed forces up the price of air until the oxygen industry becomes privatised. And if you can't afford to pay, you have no right to live. Philip's conscience ultimately wins through at the end of the day, and he takes extreme measures to rectify everything he feels he has destroyed.
The need to move towards a decentralized future, and the hazards that may await the first movers who run into a brick wall of regulation, remind me of a British nature documentary called The Tides of Kirawira. The scenario is that every year the great migratory herds of the Serengeti must cross seasonal rivers, but these rivers are populated with giant crocodiles. Every year the herd must cross, but it doesn't pay to be the first or only gazelle, zebra or wildebeest in the river. There is safety in numbers. Once the whole herd is on the move, the vast majority reaches the other side.

One line from this that strikes a chord in relation to the collusion between government and corporations to fleece the little guy is:
"The crocs work as a team. It's easier to tear chunks of flesh from the bone when someone is holding the other end."
Regulations against decentralization immobilize people for corporate interests to extract their pound of flesh. In this instance, we need to emulate the herd animals and cross the river all at once. This is our best hope of achieving a simpler, decentralized future that might be workable, unlike our current industrial paradigm. We are going to have to live without cheap energy and cheap credit because they are going away. Decentralization is the only real option we have, but if we are to achieve what we need to achieve, we need to mobilize on a large scale rather than take only a few tentative steps into the crocodile infested waters. .

2012 Vampire Squid Watch

SUBHEAD: Top economic thinkers explain why 2012 will be a year of continued, escalating predation by financiers.  

By Lynne Parramore on 29 December 2011 for Alternet.org - (http://www.alternet.org/story/153604/vampire_squid_watch%3A_4_scary_economic_trends_for_2012)


Image above: Cthulhu the Great Vampire Squid. From (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x66737#66740).
 
Having been seen to twitch – ever so slightly – in the 2011 tidal wave of global protests, the vampire squid is stirring in its evil lair. Reports of sucking noises and new tentacles sprouting in every direction tell us that the global financial monster is poised to steal yet more wealth and resources from the public in the coming year. Top economic thinkers have shared their forecasts with AlterNet, and the focus is clear: 2012 will be a year of continued – and escalating – predation by financiers. Their influence over political, financial, and economic activity is likely to grow – along with potential for harm.

1. Back-door Bailout of the Eurozone
Would you like more of your hard-earned money to flow to fatcats? Wish granted! Attorney Walker Todd, who spent two decades in the legal departments of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Cleveland, names the back-door bailout of the eurozone banking system by our very own Federal Reserve as the top economic story of the upcoming year – or, at least one of the most outrageous. 

In a nutshell, the Fed is helping European banks by opening up the short-term ‘emergency’ lending pipeline, which means that U.S. taxpayers are indirectly bailing out private European capitalists. This is being done through a bit of financial hocus pocus called “swaps” – essentially the trading of dollars for euros. Such a maneuver allows the Fed to prop up European banks while claiming that it is not 'technically' directly lending. In other words, swaps are an attempt to hide the truth from the public.

As Gerald O’Driscoll put it in the Wall Street Journal: “This Byzantine financial arrangement could hardly be better designed to confuse observers, and it has largely succeeded on this side of the Atlantic, where press coverage has been light.” O'Driscoll observes that the Fed has no authority to bail out European banks and warns of what economists call “moral hazard” – the nasty habit of banks to engage in even riskier behavior when they get bailed out.

Why is this happening? Well, because the squid is strangling morality, democracy, and the rule of law. We pay, they play. “This is an attempt by our own governing elites to maintain a false vision of how the world works, or how ‘we’ think it should work,” Todd told AlterNet. “This comes at the expense of many people who never will go to Europe, who know no European bankers, and who have no European bank accounts.”

You may not know a European banker, but you can be sure that one is just now raising a glass of bubbly in your honor. After all, you paid for it.

2. Record-breaking Political Finance
What does corporate dough buy? Newspapers and elections and presidents, oh my!

Thomas Ferguson of the University of Massachusetts, Boston and the Institute for New Economic Thinking suggested that next year’s very biggest stories could well be about corporate money influencing politics. He told AlterNet he saw a real possibility that a serious third party candidate for president might emerge; if one does, it will be bankrolled from the right while promoted in public as representing the political “center.” And it will also be designed to give corporate America many of the policies it has long sought, such a trimming Social Security and eviscerating the social safety net. "People are going to be astonished at how lethal the combination of secret money and corporate mass media will be to the public’s interest," said Ferguson.

Ferguson was confident that the 2012 elections would break all records for political finance, but he did add a sobering qualification. He thought there was an outside chance that the world economic slowdown would provoke really serious unrest in China or Europe on a scale that would put American developments in the shade.

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2012 Forecast - A Bang & a Whimper

SUBHEAD: The USA is diving into an economic depression that will make the 1930s look like a Busby Berkeley production number. By James Kunstler on 2 January 2012 for Kunstler.com - (http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/01/2012-forecast-bang-and-whimper.html) Image above: Unrest in street during Occupy Seattle 11/2/11. From (http://www.firstpost.com/topic/organization/jp-morgan-chase-co-demonstrators-march-during-occupy-seattles-protes-image-0dRxaaqbH83Ul-46870-1.html). There's a lot to be nervous about, even if you don't subscribe to the undercooked Mayan apocalypse lore moving through the gut of the Internet like a Staphylococcus-infected tamale. The casual observer might say that nothing seemed to give on the world scene in 2011 despite the Fukushima meltdown, the Arab Spring uproars, the train wreck of European finance, the disappearing act at MF Global, and the assorted injuries done to the Kardashian brand by the giant walking dildo Kris Humphries.
I demur. On close examination, the industrial world underwent complete zombification in 2011. Its member states and their institutions are now lurching across the stage of history like so many walking dead. Whole European nations are dead, their citizens squirming around the ruined bones of failed speculative condo projects, housing estates, and luxury hotels like botfly larvae. The USA lies in complete moral ruin despite the exertions of ten thousand evangelical preachers in dusty back-road tilt-up chapels from Texas to Carolina, several new museums of Creation Science, and the shining example of former Senator Rick Santorum. Just look at how we behave, from the cloakrooms of Congress to the piercing parlors of West Hollywood to the 7-Elevens of suburban Maryland: a nation of thieves, racketeers, reality TV sluts, wannabe road warriors, light-fingered gangsta-boyz, and crybabies living in an anomie-drenched decrepitating demolition derby landscape of failure. When everybody is a zombie, whose brains are left to eat? Echo answers.... On to the predictions for 2012 then.
The biggest political shock awaiting us is the massive disruption of the major party nominating conventions next summer, when thousands of angry citizens descend on Tampa and Charlotte demanding a reality test. The parties will attempt to go about their ritual business, ignoring the mischief outside the convention centers, and both parties will make the mistake of siccing the cops on the protestors. The result will be a much bigger mess than the one I personally witnessed on the streets of Chicago, 1968, when the party hacks anointed the grinning sell-out Hubert Humphrey to run against Ole Debbil Nixie. Just before getting tear-gassed on Michigan Avenue that night, I saw some kid hoisting a sign that depicted the nominee with a Hitler mustache over the epithet: Mein Humph! It made my night, despite the subsequent retching in the gutter.
The two major parties are completely bankrupt zombie organizations and this election may be their last stand - if they even survive the conventions. Neither of them can come to grips with the reality-based issues of the day: epochal financial and economic contraction, peak energy (and many other resources), climate change, the absence of the rule of law in banking, and generational grievance - or, perhaps more to the point, the manifestations of these giant trends as presented in unemployment, debt slavery, foreclosure, bankruptcy, homelessness, hunger, and X-million family tragedies. Both parties can only promise the return to a bygone status quo that is largely mythical.
President Obama, the putative "progressive" - spokesman of the Ivy League, Silicon Valley, Lower Manhattan, and all the other precincts where "folks" imagine themselves to be advanced thinkers - can't even wrap his mind around the simple fact that we will never be "energy independent" if we think that means running 260 million cars and trucks, no matter how many algae farms we pretend to invest in. Here is man who ought to know better and either doesn't, or is lying about it. He has other failures to answer for, too. Why, following the Citizens United decision in the Supreme Court, did Mr. Obama not prompt his party to sponsor federal legislation (or a constitutional amendment) that would redefine a corporation as not identical in "personhood" to a human being? Why does he still employ an Attorney General who has not started one prosecution for financial misconduct amid a panorama of arrant swindling and fraud? (Ditto: heads of the SEC, CFTC, etc.) And why did he not object loudly to the provision in the latest defense appropriations bill that allows for the capricious arrests and indefinite detention of anyone in the USA on suspicion of "terrorism?" Does this graduate of Harvard Law remember what habeas corpus means?
A lot of voters projected on Mr. Obama some notion of supernatural brilliance - our Hollywood fantasies are rife with wishes to be saved, and therefore redeemed, by our former victims - but he turned out to have a pedestrian mind. Could he possibly believe we have "a hundred years of natural gas" in the ground? Or that we're in a position to ramp up another cycle of industrial economic "growth?" Or that we can continue the web of cruel rackets that passes for medical care in this country? When the Democratic Party re-nominates Obama, it will be sealing its death warrant, and it will be on its way to the same cosmic vacuum where the memory of the Whigs lingers on.
Meanwhile, the Republicans labor to convert themselves into the party of corn-pone Nazism with all their unconcealed lust to push everybody around under the plastic eagle rubrics of "Freedom" and "Liberty." Look at the dismal lineup of morons, hypocrites, and religious fanatics arrayed for the Iowa caucus: a doctor who is also a creationist!? A leveraged buyout artist! A grifter fresh from K Street! A lady Christian theocrat wholly owned by the "dominionist" New Apostolic Reformation cult! A George W. Bush imitator showing symptoms of early onset senility! The whole posse is preoccupied with things supernatural. And being so dedicated to things unreal, they're the prime representatives of the suburban clusterfuck, who will do anything to keep that obsolete machine running, even if it means national suicide, because they lack the brains to understand where history is taking us and what the mandates of reality are shouting at us about the urgent need to reorganize American life. They are also the vassals of corporate despotism - where the Democrats are mere footservants. They masquerade as "job creators," but they promote the off-shoring of every activity that corporate America can shed in its quest for ever-greater executive compensation. The lip-service they pay to "freedom" is belied by their intent to control everybody's personal life, commoditize the public interest, and sell out their grandchildren's future for a few extra rounds of golf.
I think this gang, too, will be sent packing by the mobs of 2012. I have a nagging intimation that some third party candidate will emerge. The two personalities I keep seeing in that role are Howard Dean and Michael Bloomberg. Both of them are imperfect, but both of them are clear-headed and action-oriented, and I have a feeling that both of them are stewing in the background over the spectacle of idiocy, inertia, and dithering they see at every political compass point. Maybe somebody else will crawl out of the woodwork. I've said before in the weekly blog that conditions could deteriorate so badly that a Pentagon general might have to step into national leadership just to keep the grocery stores supplied with basic rations - but that is an outcome in my personal asteroid belt of probabilities.
Whatever party ends up running things, and whomever fronts it, is going to be in for a helluva wild ride. The USA is diving into an economic depression that will make the 1930s look like a Busby Berkeley production number. Compressive contraction will have its way with us, whatever Ben Bernanke thinks. There will simply be less activity of the kinds we're used to - Big Box shopping sprees, hamburger sales, theme park visits, house closings, you name it - than our hypertrophic system requires to keep its own destructive momentum going. Instead, the whole thing will just topple over, inert, like a 99-cent gyroscope giving into the forces of entropy. There will be a lot of bewildered, angry, dispossessed people from sea to shining sea. Not a few of them will "act out," that is, start breaking things, stealing things, targeting easy prey, hurting bystanders, and even tangling with police. Personally, I don't believe in the internment camp meme so popular among the doomer paranoiacs, but surely a lot of people will be cooling their heels in some slammer - while many other miscreants will just get away with crimes against persons and property.
The global banking system was on death-watch all through 2011. Somehow the various doctors in the central banks and finance ministries were able to muster enough accounting legerdemain to give the appearance of a system still showing a pulse. But in a compressive debt deflation, there are only so many accounting tricks you can pull off as money (and wealth) literally disappears down a cosmic worm-hole. In Europe, the process has moved from the margins toward the center. The people of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium will have less income, fewer government services, lost wages and pensions, less comfort than they have had for a couple of generations. Meanwhile, France is drowning in bad paper and the German banks are choking on it. There is really only one plausible outcome and that is default. The reckoning of the bondholders is at hand. Everybody will get poorer simultaneously - and if not, there will be not just regime change but civil war and revolution. The fantasy of a fiscal union in Europe is impossible because it means two things: that Germany will have to issue orders to everybody else; and that Germany would have to pick up the tab for everybody else while telling them what to do. Both are intolerable and implausible. Let's just think of the Euro experiment as an interesting side effect of the peak energy era... now drawing to a close.
These professional economists with their jabber about QEs and "financial repression" and bond-term "twists" and debt-to-GDP ratios are missing the point. The advanced industrial nations will not be re-jiggered onto any "growth" runway. Rather, we're entering the rutted wagon-road of de-industrializing and un-advancing. What awaits us in a "time-out" from hyperbolic technological progress. Forget about Ray Kurzweil's nanobot nirvana. That is not in the cards. Instead, wrap your mind around life in an economy organized around farming, with a much sparser distribution of big urban centers, and far fewer people overall. Don't imagine for a moment that your grandchildren will be zinging across the landscape in electric cars sampling one theme park after another while "networking" with "friends" on cyborg social networks implanted in their brain jellies. Think of them grooming their mules in the summer twilight. Anyway, you get the picture: everything that the finance ministries and treasuries and central banks are affecting to do is mere shadow theater performed in support of wishful thinking.
The question, then, is what kind of hardship and disorder will attend our journey out of the industrial era into post-technological age we are entering. Will we just turn the world into a Michael Bay movie and blow everything up? Or will we make some graceful descent and retain what is really best about the human spirit?
2012 will be the year of internal strife in these "advanced" nations, of people fighting over the table scraps of modernity among their own, in their own backyards, a desperate sorting out of the remnants. I don't think we'll see fighting between the European nations until the internal conflicts are resolved and that will take a few years.
The hot-spots for 2012 are very likely to be in the Middle East. You already know that. What could be more obvious than the tinderbox character of that region? Islamic extremism is poised to take over governments (and armies) in Egypt, Syria, Libya, possibly Algeria, and probably Pakistan. Iran lost its mind decades ago and seems determined to dominate the region by means of a strategy that can only get it into trouble (and perhaps the whole world if it goes really badly). Saber-rattling is one thing; making an actual move something else. Block the Straits of Hormuz? Not if you don't want Teheran to turn into an ashtray. That may happen anyway if Iran rattles a nuclear saber. Germany, France, Britain, and Italy, all struggling with terrible problems at home, would breathe a sigh of relief if the mullahs were chastened. The chatter around the Web about an Israeli preemptive attack never ceases. But it is a possibility.
Oh, and don't forget Turkey. Formerly the "sick man" of Europe, Turkey has become strangely resurgent, prompting some recollections that the Ottoman Empire actually administered over much of the Middle East until 1914, and not with complete incompetence, either. They just sort of imploded from empire fatigue, which is not the worst way to go down, if history is taking you there anyway. But empires come back, too, and what passes for Turkey today is a polity that in one incarnation or another has been around since the ancient Greek days, and was, for quite a long while, Rome Release 2.0.
Don't be surprised if some hostilities break out between Turkey and Iran, since a battleground named Iraq lies between them. Iraq is a basket-case despite an immense reserve of oil under its sands, and having had the US military babysit it for eight years. The last American combat units left Iraq this fall, but there are still plenty of US soldiers there, maintaining our garrisons and keeping an eye on things. The question is: can they control what the Kurds do in the north, and whatever meddling Iran engages in around the Basra oil region in the South? These American support troops remaining in Iraq could find themselves looking like a ham-and-cheese sandwich between a lot of crusty mischief north-and-south. The Turks have already had a dustup or two with Syria lately - Syria occupies a big wedge between Turkey, Iraq and the Mediterranean Sea - and Turkey will take a dim view of that nation falling into the hands of Islamic extremists if Assad gets booted.
All bets are off in Egypt. Anything can happen there.
The dangerous position of Israel vis-à-vis all these quarreling players is probably as bad as it has been in two generations. An attack by a neighbor or getting caught in a crossfire between neighbors would stimulate a lusty response, and perhaps World War Three. As if the world needed this added aggravation. It makes my kishkas ache just to think about it. Sometimes I wonder why the whole Israeli nation doesn't just pack up and move to Nebraska.
2012 is the year that China proves to be a mortal nation and rolls over with a very bad case of the vapors. Their banking system is a sham. Their property bubble is a fiasco. Their government has no formal legitimacy and will install a new leadership group this year, while exports crash and mass factory layoffs happen. There will be a lot of pissed off people in China, and they may express themselves politically in ways that have seemed unthinkable for decades. The aura of social control looms large in China, but an aura is a light garment not recommended for stormy political weather. 2012 could be the year that China begins its journey into a "Balkanized" collection of smaller autonomous parts, which is the big fat trendline for all the nations of the world, including the USA.
It is hard to think about the bizarre case of India, a nation with one foot in the modern age and the other in a colorful hallucinatory dreamtime. Their climate-change related problems are doing heavy damage to the food supply. Their groundwater is almost gone. The troubles of the wobbling global economy will take a lot pep out of their burgeoning tech and manufacturing sectors. It wouldn't be surprising if these travails prompted distracting hostilities with its failed-state neighbor, Pakistan. Pakistan, with its inexhaustible supply of Islamic maniacs could easily start a rumble with some crazy caper like the Mumbai hotel assault of two years ago, but this time India would answer with a heavy cudgel, perhaps even a nuclear sortie designed to neutralize Pakistan's dangerous toys at a stroke. And that would be that. Like cleaning out an annoying neighborhood crack house. It's not a very appetizing scenario, but what else can you do about failed states with nuclear bombs?
Turning to Japan....That sore beset kingdom is suffering all the blowback of modern times at once: the Godzilla syndrome up in Fukushima; a demographic collapse; an imminent bond crisis; the collapse of export market partners; and a long, agonizing death spiral of its banks. I stick by a prediction I tendered back in March, after the deadly tsunami: Japan will decisively opt for a return to pre-industrial civilization. Why not? The rest of the world will be dragged kicking and screaming to the same place. Let Japan get there first and enjoy the advantage of the early adapter - back to an economy of local, hand-made stuff, rigid social hierarchy, folkloric hijinks in whispering bamboo groves, silk robes, and frequent time outs for the tea ceremony.
Russia? The big bear might have just sat out another decade and enjoyed its remaining fossil fuel supply, but the temptation to project power is a demanding habit, so they make all sorts of noises about watching Iran's back - though mutual hatred abounds - and generally rushing into the power vacuum occupied by a US with dwindling mojo. There were stirrings of political discontent just few weeks ago, after the rigged early rounds of national elections, and who knows where that will lead. Vlad Putin has held things together there impressively after the meltdown of the 1990s, but apparently the tranquil veneer is thin. Except for two big cities, the sprawling nation is broke and decrepitating, with little to offer the world but oil and gas - not an inconsiderable offering, but one with certain limits especially as they drain their oil fields for export cash. The rule of law is also pretty sketchy there. The government, as ever, is a kind of gangster affair, only this time one that allows some people to get really rich, not just connected. Their 70-year experiment with Marxian dogma has probably put them off ideology for a few centuries to come, which means less money spent on prisons for people with independent thoughts and more for call girls and home furnishings. I imagine that Putin will maintain his grip through the year. The Russians will appreciate relative order more when they see a few other countries devolve into internal conflict.
I don't see much action around South America this year. Some Americans are already fleeing to Argentina. Perhaps they'll enjoy it, but there is always the menace of property confiscation, and worse. Brazil will continue to appear vibrant while it grows more population, shoving it toward eventual ruin. They will see setbacks in the development of their deep-sea oil due to an international shortage of investment capital.
Mexico's fortunes depend on its oil industry, Pemex, which faces remorseless depletion. Revenue from oil production and (dwindling) exports can't hope to keep up with continuing population growth (and ever more poverty). These trends suggest a continued loss of control for the central government and more territorial fighting among the drug gangs and other criminal mafias. As long as all those loose heads roll on the south side of the Rio Grande the US will just tut-tut off to the side. But if the gangs get bold and start venturing cross border to make mischief we will make like Woodrow Wilson did and send the regular army down to spank them. It would be a satisfying diversion for that portion of the US demographic that enjoys Ultimate Fighting on TV, though it won't get them their job back at the Pontiac plant.
The global oil picture is not so reassuring. The fragility of our supply is simply unnoticed by commuters enjoying Lady Gaga on their iPods. Meanwhile, our politicians retail fantasies of endless domestic reserves, which is total horse shit. Global exports are in remorseless decline, apart from geopolitical fissures and strains that could just paralyze allocation cold. If a hot war breaks out in the Middle East, you'll see the American supermarket shelves empty in three days. Won't that be fun. Note, too: the manias over shale oil and shale gas will reveal themselves as just more bubbles in a long cavalcade of bubbles, and both will begin to founder on a shortage of investment capital. The shale plays will prove to have been a national self-esteem-building program, not any part of an energy policy.
The abiding question as we turn the corner into the New Year is: how come Jon Corzine is still at large? (Not to mention Angelo Mozilo, plus the entire executive floor of Goldman Sachs, and about 5000 other assorted Wall Street grifters still on the loose.) There is plenty of dire talk that the collapse of MF Global, and the shenanigans around its demise involving the evaporation of segregated accounts, has gravely and permanently damaged the entire investment industry, but especially the commodities funds, who can no longer depend on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to honestly clear trades and regulate behavior. The whole affair, and the thundering silence from the oval office, makes Barack Obama seem not just inept but somehow complicit in the looting of America. As if he needs another mark of discredit in his record of consistent fumbling. There are signs that a lot of people who still have something resembling money invested in various funds will go to cash in the weeks ahead, including under-the-mattress style. The distrust and paranoia is palpable now, with the frenzies of Yuletide bygone for another year. After all, why trust banks, especially the TBTF monsters. Such a mass move could take the starch even out of highly manipulated equity markets.
Nemesis may have her day, though. Jamie Dimon might have just gone a swindle too far for the fates to ignore him another year. JP Morgan looks to be in a peck of trouble for its role in the confiscation of MF Global accounts, not to mention its hijinks in the precious metals markets. The impudence of these rascals! In a nation when all sorts of people are murdered every day for little more reason than being in the wrong place at the wrong time, is it not a wonder that some poor swindled Grampa with nothing left to live for has not tossed a Molotov cocktail through the window of a Wall Street watering hole known to be frequented by banking poobahs? Perhaps this sort of action awaits us in 2012.
Longtime readers of this blog know how much I love predicting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to crash down to 4000 every year. I never disappoint - though I am often disappointed. In 2011, the SP index managed the delightful trick of finishing a fraction below its previous January kickoff. The stock markets have churned in range-bound purgatory for a decade while the price of a jar of pickles has multiplied four-fold. Applying the calculus, and given the pickle-DOW differential, I'd say my call was actually pretty good. In any case, this year I change the tune slightly: I predict the DJIA will go to 4000, with the catch that the number is only a way-station to 1000, which it will hit in 2014. We may be short of snow here in the Northeastern US - thanks to La Nina - yet not short of confidence that the mills of the Gods grind slowly, but grind exceedingly fine.
Good luck to you in 2012, and report any suspicious characters adorned with ear-plugs, quetzel feathers, and carrying obsidian knives to your nearest office of Homeland Security.
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Superferry return from the dead

SOURCE: Dick Mayer (dickmayer@earthlink.net)
SUBHEAD: Lawmaker wants state to give Hawaiian interisland Superferry system another try.  

[IB Editor's Note: Now that the Superferry's were bought by the Navy they could lease them to the state of Hawaii for civilian interstate travel - thus dooming the outer islands.]  

By Ilima Loomis on 30 December 2011 for The Maui News - 
(http://www.mauinews.com/page/content.detail/id/556679/Ferry-idea-refloated.html)

 
Image above: Military personnel try to get civilian "Superferry" going in Hawaii. From (http://www.stupidhumans.org/451).

Nearly three years after the Hawaii Superferry suspended its operations, state Rep. Joe Souki hopes to restart discussion about an interisland ferry system with legislation he introduced earlier this year. House Bill 1239 would establish a Hawaii state ferry system, along with a special fund to pay for the program, opening the door for a public or private operator to "ferry people and cargo between the islands." The bill stalled in the state Senate this year, but it has been carried over to the 2012 legislative session. [Note by Brad Parsons: In part the legislation creates an authority that would;
"...as soon as practicable, shall engage in communications with the United States Department of Transportation and the United States Maritime Administration relating to federal funding assistance and the possible purchase or lease of the former high speed ferry vessel that operated in waters of the State or other available suitable vessels to commence its operations."
"It's basically to get people talking about it again," Souki said this week. "I want to restart and see where it goes from there." He said it made sense for islands to be joined by a ferry system "like a superhighway." "It should be done," he said. "We're a state bounded by air and water. We should be connected."

While the proposal calls for the establishment of a statewide ferry system, it does not specify whether that system would be operated by the government or a private company. "It leaves it open," Souki said. "I think we're well aware that the state doesn't have the finances now, so more than likely it would have to be a private system, like we had the last time."

 While the Hawaii Superferry was short-lived, Souki said he didn't believe that meant an interisland ferry system could not work. He said the Superferry's failure involved many factors, including costly lawsuits, protests that discouraged passengers, and the loss of funds when investment bank Lehman Bros. "went kaput."

 And Souki was still smarting over a 2009 decision by the Hawaii Supreme Court to overturn a state law that exempted the Superferry from normal environmental reviews, on the grounds that it gave special treatment to the company. He said the decision was the nail in the Superferry's coffin. "That damn Supreme Court coming up with a decision that it was special legislation," he said. "What the hell do they think? Every piece of legislation we pass is special."

 Ed Welch, legislative director for the Passenger Vessel Association, located in Alexandria, Va., said that while Hawaii Superferry was a member of his organization, he wasn't knowledgeable enough about the company's finances to say why it failed. But he did say that the distance and rough water between the islands would likely be an issue for any operator.

"Most ferry operators on the Mainland are not operating on the open ocean," he said. "That is one factor. The 'seakeeping' of the vessel, the comfort, the ride, is much more challenging." Ferries in Europe, which are built to cross rough bodies of water like the English Channel or the Baltic Sea, are "huge vessels, almost the size of cruise ships," to better withstand the wind and waves, he noted. Welch said there are some examples on the Mainland of ferry systems run by private operators, including the ferries that serve Catalina Island off California.

But he said private ferries are "a minority." "If you look at other places around the country - Alaska, Washington state, North Carolina or coastal Texas - where there are substantial ferry operations, those are run by government entities," he said. Irene Bowie, executive director of Maui Tomorrow, which opposed the Superferry, said she was closely watching Souki's proposal but that her group wasn't against an interisland ferry system on principle.

Maui Tomorrow's top concerns would be for any system to undergo a "true environmental review," and show that it could operate successfully without harming wildlife or the environment, she said. "The Superferry was loaded with problems," she said. "A different kind of ferry system is something I think everyone would consider."

 Souki said it would be up to the public to keep his proposal alive by speaking out if they were in favor of an interisland ferry system, since "the last time all we heard from were the dissidents." After being carried over to the 2012 Legislature, his bill has until the session ends in May to move forward. "Or, we can even call a special session again so the Supreme Court can veto it again," he joked.

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Superferrys go to Navy 12/23/11

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