Top 10 Most Likely to Default

SUBHEAD: The index used below is called the Cumulative Possibility of Default (CPD).



[Publisher's note: Greece is not the most likely place for the unraveling to begin.]

By Staff on 11 February 2010 at CNBC -
(http://www.cnbc.com/id/34465366/?slide=2)

If, for example, a country has a 20% CPD, it has a one in five chance of defaulting in the next five years.

10. Greece

CPD: 18.67%

Fitch/Moody's Credit Rating:
BBB+ / BBB+

9. California, USA

CPD: 18.97%

Moody's Credit Ratings:
Senior-most tax backed: Baa1
Senior-most revenue backed: Baa1

Outlook: Stable

8. Lithuania

CPD: 19.11%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: BBB
Foreign Short Term: A-3

Credit Watch/Outlook: Negative

7. Iceland

CPD: 24.66%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: BBB-
Foreign Short Term: A-3

Credit Watch/Outlook: Negative

6. Dubai, UAE

CPD: 25.71%

S&P Credit Rating: *
Foreign Long Term: BB+
Local Long Term: BB+

Credit Watch/Outlook: Negative

5. Republic of Latvia

CPD: 30.47%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: BB
Foreign Short Term: B

Credit Watch/Outlook: Negative

4. Pakistan

CPD: 38.11%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: B-
Foreign Short Term: C

Credit Watch/Outlook: Stable

3. Argentina

CPD: 46.06%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: B-
Foreign Short Term: C

Credit Watch/Outlook: Stable

2. Ukraine

CPD: 52.91%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: CCC+
Foreign Short Term: C

Credit Watch/Outlook: Stable

1. Venezuela

CPD: 56.26%

S&P Credit Ratings:
Foreign Long Term: BB-
Foreign Short Term: B

Credit Watch/Outlook: Negative

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