End of "Free" TV?

SUBHEAD: Happy New Year! Recent news concerning the future of how TV is delivered indicate the end of the free (but ad filled) ride.  

By Juan Wilson on 1 January 2010 for Island Breath - 
 (http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2010/01/end-of-free-tv.html)

 
Image above: Cover of double issue TV Guide magazine from 3/31/08. From http://img339.imageshack.us/i/returningfavoritesnf3.jpg
 
Prediction for 2010 - No more "free" TV

Last year my wife, Linda, and I cut off our Time-Warner subscription to cable TV. We were sick of most of it, and found we watched less junk and chose what we did see more carefully by using Netflix and internet streaming of video we were interested in.

 Fox & Time-Warner
Soon that may not be a choice, but a necessity. A war is underway that will likely end in the disappearance of free "broadcast" TV programming. Two recent news threads that underline this possibility is the threat by News Corporation of pulling all its Fox TV television from Time-Warner cable distribution. That would mean here in Hawaii, where Time-Warner is the only cable provider, that there would be no Fox News, The Simsons, Fox NFL football, American Idol, and other Fox productions.

 On the surface the argument is about money, but the underlying story is about distribution of content. In the past it was advertising that was the magic ingredient that made free TV possible. A big problem is that advertising on television is a failing business model. Without advertising to grease the wheels its hard to see how content and distribution can remain "free". "Free" is never quite that. Historically, to receive any form of TV requires the end user spending some money on equipment, and today, and an account with either a cable-TV, cable-internet, or telephone-internet provider. Of course, Pay-TV has been around for decades.

Some of the best TV programming has been from premium channels the likes of Home Box Office (The Sopranos, Rome, The Tudors), People have gotten use to the idea that they have to pay for that kind of original programming, as well as live special events and newly released movies. But in the near future people may have to get used to the idea of paying for Saturday Night Live, The Simpsons, CSI Miami, and Dancing with the Stars.  

NBC/Universal & Comcast
Another deal to keep an eye on is the one where Comcast (the nation's largest cable network) buys NBC/Universal. That means the NBC, CNBC, MSNBC cable operations as well as NBC broadcast TV and all of Universal Studio's movie library, production facilities and theme parks.

It is in doubt that Comcast will pay the billions required to own the production of programming only to give it away "free". So if you want to watch "Law & Order", Conan Obrian's "Tonight Show", Keith Oberman's "Countdown", or Jim Kramer's "Mad Money" you may have to have a subscription, or buy the show. For a few years Apple's iTunes Store has been selling TV show like "Lost" for $2 a pop. That maybe the model that works for others as well. Today www.Hulu.com is one of the most popular ways to see TV programming on line. You can catch the last "Saturday Night Live" you missed for free with excellent display quality and a modest amount of advertising.

That may not be true soon. Hulu is operated by a consortium of TV content providers. Two major players are Fox and NBC TV. These two companies will be moving quickly to create new modalities. I suspect that by the end of 2010 Hulu will be a pay-per-view operation with an iTunes Store ambiance. My guess is prices will be about 50 cents a half-hour for programs. Below are a couple of background stories on this issue.

NBC-Comcast Deal Puts Broadcast TV in Doubt 
 
By Brian Stelter on 7 December 2009 in the Newe York Times -  
(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/business/media/07nbc.html)
 
From Studio 6B at 30 Rockefeller Center, NBC brought Milton Berle, Jack Paar and Johnny Carson into the nation’s living rooms, then broadcast local news to New York City for decades. Last Thursday, it was a stage for a cable takeover as Comcast announced a plan to acquire NBC Universal.
There, in Studio 6B, a town hall meeting for NBC employees opened with Jeff Zucker, the NBC Universal chief executive, introducing “our new friends from Philadelphia,” and closed with a formal welcome to the Comcast family by Ralph Roberts, the cable operator’s 89-year-old patriarch. Mr. Roberts received a standing ovation.

For employees of the most storied part of NBC Universal, the broadcast network, one question lingered: will we fit into this cable family?

The studios at 30 Rockefeller Plaza — and shows like “30 Rock,” which parodies NBC’s corporate culture — will not be going dark as a result of the deal. But employees inside both the thriving news division and the ailing entertainment division of the National Broadcasting Company still have reason to be anxious about it.

At every turn, Comcast has emphasized to its own shareholders that the deal’s purpose is to gain control over NBC Universal’s fast-growing cable channels. The writer and humorist John Dillon observed Thursday that in the 2,742-word news release about the deal, the broadcast network was not mentioned until word 2,170. There is even talk of changing NBC Universal’s name to play down the broadcast association.

The deal is structured to give Comcast a controlling 51 percent interest, with its partner, General Electric, initially retaining 49 percent.

“Everyone’s now talking about NBC as a cable company, and Comcast is a cable company,” a longtime NBC News staff member said. “I guess we’re wondering, do they like broadcast?”
On the record, they do. Comcast says NBC and its affiliate structure will remain intact for the time being. All day Thursday, Brian Roberts, the chief executive of Comcast, whose fortunes have come from converting broadcast viewers into cable customers, talked up broadcast as “an important part of the fabric of America.”

“We’re very committed to trying to see ways to make it successful,” he said in an interview on the cable channel CNBC.

Later, in a conference call with reporters, the first question was about the viability of broadcast, leading Mr. Roberts to say of NBC, “I think there’s more upside than downside.” He said Comcast would seek to “restore it to No. 1.” Similarly, the G.E. chief executive, Jeffrey Immelt, said on CNBC the same morning that his “top priority for next year” is to get NBC back in first place.

“Let’s make no mistake, where we are today as a broadcast network is unacceptable,” he said. “And I share responsibility with that. That is job one.”

Even as its news programs remain top-rated, NBC has seen its fortunes fall sharply in the last decade. In prime time, the network ranks a distant fourth, and its 10 p.m. program, “The Jay Leno Show,” is increasingly the butt of jokes.

The network’s “Saturday Night Live” alluded to the network’s losses over the weekend, with the host of “Weekend Update” joking that the final sticking point to the deal was “G.E. convincing Comcast that it’s still 1996.” With that, the logos for NBC’s “Must See TV” shows of the 1990s — “Seinfeld,” “Friends” and “E.R.” — were flashed on the screen.

The weakened state of the network aside, NBC employees said in interviews that they only sensed low-level anxiety about Comcast’s takeover, in part because changes are not expected until after the deal closes. The companies expect regulatory approvals to take a year or more. But one of the staffers acknowledged, “Some of us are worried that they’re going to have sticker shock over what it takes to do it on the broadcast side.”

Some employees said they were relieved to hear Comcast executives say at the town hall that widespread layoffs were unlikely because there is little overlap between the two companies. The employees requested anonymity to speak candidly and describe the town hall meeting because they were not authorized by the network to speak.

Strumming a Comcast-branded guitar to celebrate the Comcast news on Thursday, Conan O’Brien, the host of “The Tonight Show,” joked about the deal having “no apparent redundancy issues.”
If anyone feels redundant, it would be the NBC affiliates that deliver their signals over the air; they will now be part of a company that provides its programming via cable. Mr. Roberts said in interviews that he did not foresee changes to the NBC affiliate structure, but was not specific about how far into the future he could see.

Comcast has not yet contacted the affiliates. “From what we’ve read and what we’ve seen, their interest in content certainly aligns with ours, so there’s reason to be optimistic,” said Michael Fiorile, the chairman of the NBC affiliates board and the chief executive officer of Dispatch Broadcast Group, which owns NBC stations in Indiana.

Comcast could toss a lifesaver of sorts to the broadcast business by supporting per-subscriber payments to stations, or so-called retransmission agreements. Comcast was noncommittal about retransmission last week, saying only that it hoped to play a constructive role.

In a letter aimed at Washington lawmakers and regulators who will scrutinize the deal in the coming months, David L. Cohen, an executive vice president at Comcast, expressed support for NBC on Thursday. He wrote, “Notwithstanding the turbulence in the current media marketplace and the ongoing threats to the business model of a national broadcast network, the combined company remains committed to continuing to provide free over-the-air television” through its owned and operated stations and its local broadcast affiliates.

Comcast also said it would “preserve and enrich the output of local news, local public affairs, and other public interest programming” on NBC’s stations. Public interest groups opposed to the deal called Mr. Cohen’s letter weak, noting that it did not make any funding commitments for local or national news.

Not surprisingly, Comcast did not commit to keeping the name NBC Universal after the deal closes. Internally, the company will house its stake in NBC Universal inside a unit called Comcast Entertainment. Some Comcast executives are keen on using the Comcast Entertainment name in the future, although it is doubtful that the “NBC Nightly News” will become the “Comcast Nightly News” anytime soon.

Talking to CNBC on Thursday, Mr. Roberts suggested that the NBC name sometimes distracts from the fact that NBC’s cable channels are “fantastic.”

“In a way, sometimes their name gets in the way of that,” Mr. Roberts said. He started to say that he had talked about that fact with others, then cut himself off, saying instead, “we’ve joked about that.”

Fox Giving Time-Warner 3 hour reprieve

By Eric Deggans on 1 January 2010 in The Feed - 
  (http://blogs.tampabay.com/media/2010/01/fox-giving-time-warner-and-bright-house-a-little-more-time-before-pulling-channels.html)

Fox channels remain on Bright House this morning as the two sides are still negotiating to reach a deal. The original three-hour contract extension which kept Fox from pulling its channels at midnight on New Year's Day now has been extended again to 11 a.m., according to Bright House spokesman Joe Durkin.

Local Fox affiliate WTVT-Ch. 13 reported this morning that both sides hope to reach a deal before the 8:30 p.m. start of tonight's Sugar Bowl game featuring the University of Florida football team.)
Fox has delayed the decision to pull its network affiliates and some cable programming from Time Warner and Bright House Networks cable systems, providing a three-hour extension its rebroadcast agreements as the New Year began.

The cable systems were expected to lose access to Fox's channels at midnight, following a struggle over compensation for the retransmission agreements. The outage would affect more than 1-million Bright House subscriber households in the Tampa Bay area and about 850,000 households in the Orlando area.

A spokesman for Fox would not say how long the delay would last in an email just after midnight. But a spokesman for Bright House Networks confirmed the cable systems have been given a three-hour delay while negotiations continue in Los Angeles.

The Orlando Sentinel, quoting a statement from local Fox-owned affiliate WOFL, said Fox had agreed to a three-hour extension, pushing back the time Fox shows would disappear to 3 a.m. on the East Coast and midnight in Los Angeles.

But Fox spokesman Scott Grogin would only confirm in an email that "we're still negotiating and going to give it a little more time."

The extension meant that Tampa Bay area viewers saw Fox News reporter Rick Leventhal count in the New Year, just before a song from American Idol winner Kris Allen. The reprieve also allowed Fox to avoid spoiling viewers' New Year's Eve revelry on the East Coast, pushing back any programming outage to a time when much of the country would not be watching TV.

The possibility that Fox might remove its programming from Time Warner and Bright House cable systems brought a flurry of activity today, including a lawsuit filed by a Tampa lawyer trying to bar the action (it was denied) and a letter from Federal Communications Commission chair Julius Genachowski asking for a temporary extension.

While Time Warner Cable has shown a willingness to avoid an outage, agreeing to enter binding arbitration and a 30-day cooling off period suggested by a New York congressman, Fox owner News Corp. has shown little willingness to follow suit.

Sports fans in Florida were particularly incensed at the possibility of missing Fox's airing later today of the Sugar Bowl, featuring the final performance by University of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow as a collegiate player.

Tampa's Fox-owned affiliate WTVT posted a list of places where area fans could see today's Sugar Bowl game if an outage occurred.

Both sides have mounted extensive media campaigns to press their side of the issue with consumers and the public. Fox's Web site can be found here, while Bright House's online home is here.

In another cable fee fight gone bad, Scripps Networks has decided to pull its popular cable channels The Food Network and HGTV from the Cablevision system after its contract expired at the start of the New Year. The removal, affecting more than 3-million subscribers in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, was sparked by Scripps' efforts to increase its retransmission fees for the channels.
 
"We wish Scripps well and have no expectation of carrying their programming again, given the dramatic changes in their approach to working with distributors to reach television viewers," read a statement issued last night by Cablevision.

 [Author's Note: As I have been writing this article a news story broke. Fox and Time-Warner have backed away from the deadline of today to end their relationship. a deal was struck to keep Fox in the Time-Warner distribution network See http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2010/01/01/time_warner_cable_and_fox_strike_new_deal.] .

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