Image above: Still from 2005 remake of "War of the Worlds". From (http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=38091).
By Steve Ludlum on 9 October 2010 in Economic Undertow -
(http://economic-undertow.blogspot.com/2010/10/quick-notes-from-aspo.html)
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) world convention is taking place this year for the first time in Washington, DC, at the downtown Hyatt Regency Hotel. This is - according to ASPO rumors - the first step to the Association becoming yet another crummy lobbying group.
Peak Oil is dead, long live ... what, exactly?
Peak oil having taken place in the past, the consequence being lived by all in the present, the next form of organization is yet to emerge. The characters are vivid, the stage is banal. What else is there?
The great paradigm of our time is the execution of imagination in the back alley ... of imagination.
The hotel itself is of a piece with our hypertrophic empire: a massive glass box cantilevered into and over itself with forms that call to mind the Matrix (perhaps under the parking level). Inside are reminders of the obliterating massiveness of the Establishment. There are several conventions taking place in this hotel simultaneously. Most appear to be job fairs/spamming events for 'security' and 'intelligence' outfits. In and among the various misfits and experts wandering more or less aimlessly scurry bright looking young hotel people in various shades of trendy charcoal gray pretending to be doing something important.
Presumably all have college degrees and all earn a bit more than minimum wage.
The entire peak oil concept - as simple to grasp as a leaky bucket - is not worth examining again. What's next after the peak is reached (was reached a long time ago) and the sickening slide begins in earnest? The group is decidedly without concrete answers. It takes imagination to conceptualize the peak oil effect on consumers. The most effective promoters describe in simple language what they see in their minds' eyes. This is one reason why the most effective peak oil articulations are from artists and writers.
How we cope defies imagination. Our cultural prejudices presuppose a sci-fi Matrix future. How to create way of life without high-energy-consumption machines and all that goes with them has not been imagined by the crowd that has spent the best parts of their working lives seeking validation for what has been swept under the rug as not having any real importance.
Here comes Andy Warhol's fifteen seconds of fame as peak oil's effects will be felt at the point where people will not be able pass credit where it is due or not. Even in its end, the culture holds all in its death's grip.
Interesting folks include Arch-Druid John Michael Greer, Diva of Deflation Nicole Foss, Sharon Astyk, Oil Drum stalwart Gail Tverberg, Good talks so far by Charlie Hall, Tom Whipple, Chris Martenson, Andre Angelantoni, Jeffrey Brown. Gregor MacDonald and I agreed that California is nearing (hopefully) its 'Tainter Moment' of accelerated simplification and might become a cheap (and fun) place to live, again.
I have some recordings but I haven't figured out the 'tech' yet.
Most annoying opportunity let slip away was a chance to jump up and down on the head of Admiral Rice and Congressman Roscoe Bartlett. Both are actors pretending to be establishment figures. I've become a nice guy: "Why isn't the government/military doing their jobs?"
This is an area where I need to improve; the be a more effective rabble rouser!
From the 'Nicole Foss Sucks All The Air Out Of The Room' department, fellow Canadian Rick Munroe, Energy Security Analyst for the National Farmer's Union of Canada describes buttonholing agencies both in Canada and in the US to determine their level of preparedness. Observation: the militaries are discussing the issue of peak liquid fuels, the responsible civilian agencies are not. Very sobering ...
John Michael Greer suggests that large scale immigration of Asians to the US (Canadian) west coast is likely as nations such as Japan have limited capability to feed themselves in a fuel constrained environment.
John Michael is a China bull! Knock me ovah with a fethah!
More on China, later.
Chris Martenson suggests that gold is a form of money that does not incur a liability in its creation. I would leave the reader to disagree, but feel compelled to note that mining and refining gold represents a liability generally paid for in other forms of money. Managing a surplus of it it represents a liability that increases ... at a greater rate than the value of the surplus. In this sense, gold is no different from all other forms of money.
This is in fact true of all surpluses and is Steve's First Law of Economics.
Jeff Rubin asks (rhetorically) what sub-prime mortgages - using Cleveland as an example - caused an economic meltdown worldwide? Good question! The answer is rising oil prices, of course. Jeff then gave a 'Net Export' sales pitch ...
Jeff Rubin proves you can go far in economics if you have the right haircut.
Jeff Vail suggests that suburbia is worth saving. Saving for what? He makes the example of a suburban 'farmer' who feeds two people from a 1/6 acre lot. Question for Jeff: how many tons of food are now coming from suburbia? How many come from farms?
David Murphy gives a good description of the 'Waste- Based Economy'. He notes that it only functions well with prices @ $35 a barrel.
Andre Angelantoni has probably the best cultural take: we all are engaged in long- running social conversations. Most of these are about how we organize ourselves. These tend to aggressively defend their content. They also promote strategies that are not re- examined once they are implemented! The upshot: the social conversations continually reinforces failure.
Nicole Foss did indeed suck all the air out of a very large room full of people who have a background in the material. Her best line had the world competing militarily for scarce energy; "is not going to be very pleasant!" ... and everyone laughed. It's not the material it's how you deliver it.
Robert Hirsch didn't go far enough with his presentation, hoping for a return to a semblance of business as usual. He suggests a context where breakdowns increase due to the finance disorders; then liquid fuels decline causing what would likely be even more breakdowns. Out of this cauldron of increasing societal failures would emerge 'mitigations' which would presumably be electric cars.
Please pass the fairy dust ...
Meanwhile, out in the 'Greater World' a number of soft commodities 'limit up' yesterday. Other prices were up sharply. This is from Bloomberg, yesterday:
Agriculture | | PRICE | CHANGE | % UP | DATE |
| CANOLA FUTR (WCE) (CAD/MT) | 497.500 | 14.900 | 3.09 | 10/08 |
| COCOA FUTURE (USD/MT) | 2803.000 | 63.000 | 2.30 | 10/08 |
| COCOA FUTURE - LI (GBP/MT) | 1870.000 | 30.000 | 1.63 | 10/08 |
| COFFEE 'C' FUTURE (USd/lb.) | 182.150 | 8.700 | 5.02 | 10/08 |
| CORN FUTURE (USd/bu.) | 528.250 | 30.000 | 6.02 | 10/08 |
| COTTON NO.2 FUTR (USd/lb.) | 107.170 | 3.420 | 3.30 | 10/08 |
| FCOJ-A FUTURE (USd/lb.) | 153.750 | 2.550 | 1.69 | 10/08 |
| LUMBER FUTURE ($/1,000 board ft.) | 233.000 | 10.000 | 4.48 | 10/08 |
| OAT FUTURE (USd/bu.) | 369.500 | 20.000 | 5.72 | 10/08 |
| ROUGH RICE (CBOT) (USD/cwt) | 13.250 | 0.455 | 3.56 | 10/08 |
| SOYBEAN FUTURE (USd/bu.) | 1135.000 | 70.000 | 6.57 | 10/08 |
| SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR (USD/T.) | 316.200 | 20.000 | 6.75 | 10/08 |
| SOYBEAN OIL FUTR (USd/lb.) | 46.620 | 2.500 | 5.67 | 10/08 |
| SUGAR #11 (WORLD) (USd/lb.) | 26.320 | 1.160 | 4.61 | 10/08 |
| WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) (USd/bu.) | 719.250 | 60.000 | 9.10 | 10/08 |
| WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) (USd/bu.) | 758.500 | 59.000 | 8.43 | 10/08 |
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