Carbon Clock Countdown

SUBHEAD: The planet has just one year until the carbon budget for global temperatures surpass 1.5ºC of warming.

By Nika Knight on 11 January 2017 for Common Dreams -
(http://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/01/10/ticking-carbon-clock-warns-we-have-one-year-avert-climate-catastrophe)


Image above: A series of enduring droughts in East Africa has already caused widespread deaths, malnutrition, and fueled the migration of refugees to Europe. As the planet warms, more extreme conditions are imminent. Photo by Save the Children. From original article.

Our window of time to act on climate may be shrinking even faster than previously thought.

We may only have one year remaining before we lock in 1.5ºC of warming—the ideal goal outlined in the Paris climate agreement—after which we’ll see catastrophic and irreversible climate shifts, many experts have warned.

That’s according to the ticking carbon budget clock created by the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). The clock’s countdown now shows that only one year is left in the world’s carbon budget before the planet heats up more than 1.5º over pre-industrial temperatures.

That's under the most pessimistic calculations. According to the most optimistic prediction, we have four years to kick our carbon habit and avert 1.5º of warming.

And to limit warming to 2ºC—the limit agreed upon in the Paris climate accord—we have nine years to act under the most pessimistic scenario, and 23 years to act under the most optimistic.

"So far, there is no track record for reducing emissions globally," explained Fabian Löhe, spokesperson for MCC, in an email to Common Dreams. "Instead, greenhouse gas emissions have been rising at a faster pace during the last decade than previously—despite growing awareness and political action across the globe.

Once we have exhausted the carbon budget, every ton of CO2 that is released by cars, buildings, or industrial plants would need to be compensated for during the 21st century by removing the CO2 from the atmosphere again.

Generating such 'negative emissions' is even more challenging and we do not know today at which scale we might be able to do that."

(Climate activists and environmentalists have also long warned of the potential negative consequences of geoengineering and other carbon capture schemes, as Common Dreams has reported.)

"Hence, the clock shows that time is running out: it is not enough to act sometime in the future, but it is necessary to implement more ambitious climate policies already in the very short-term," Löhe added.

"Take all of the most difficult features of individual pathways to 2ºC—like fast and ambitious climate action in all countries of the world, the full availability of all required emissions reduction and carbon removal technologies, as well as aggressive energy demand reductions across the globe—the feasibility of which were so heatedly debated prior to Paris," Löhe said. "This gives you an idea of the challenge associated with the more ambitious 1.5°C goal."

.

Blindness at Davos

SUBHEAD: The current model of economic growth is not only unsustainable, but the source of our problems.

By S. G. Vombatkere on 26 January 2017 for Counter Currents  -
(http://www.countercurrents.org/2017/01/26/blindness-at-davos/)


Image above: Entrance at 2017 Davos Forum .  From (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/).

The World Economic Forum (WEF), a Swiss non-profit foundation for public-private cooperation “committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic, and other leaders of society to shape global, regional, and industry agendas”, met in Davos from 17-20 January of 1027, as it does every year, in an ambience of high-level meetings interspersed by opulent partying.

It is essentially an annual jamboree to bring together many hundreds of extremely rich and powerful top business magnates, international political leaders, selected intellectuals, and journalists from around 100 countries, “to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world”. WEF focuses on business profit and national economic benefit.

Post the unrealistic Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) of 2000, the 2016 WEF was about 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) with a 15-years time target ending 2030. SDGs were to “transform our world” by ending poverty, protecting the planet, and ensuring prosperity for all. The means of achieving these goals was through economic growth, social development and environmental protection.

In a world of over seven billion people, a majority of whom live in abject poverty, it is difficult to imagine more reality-disconnected persons meeting in a more inappropriate forum to discuss how to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all.

Development by economic growth
Economic growth is understood as increasing economic activity of business, commercial, industrial and services sectors measured by growth of the gross national product (GNP).

All countries, independent of political ideology, single-mindedly pursue economic development based on GDP growth, targets for which are set in percentage points for each year. GDP growth is in turn based upon increasing consumption of all kinds and trade of all kinds, including armaments. It pre-supposes endless material growth based upon extraction-manufacture-transport-consumption within the ecological resource base, the finiteness of which most economists are unable to take into account.

 Every stage of the extraction-manufacture-transport-consumption mantra is entirely based upon the continuing extraction-refinement-transport-consumption of oil as a fuel.

The finiteness of the resource-base is both in terms of being the source of materials and a sink for the polluting outputs of the extraction-manufacture-transport-consumption processes.

This model of development is vigorously pursued worldwide notwithstanding that in the 1974 Cocoyoc United Nations Conference, the combined wisdom of all nations held that:
“Our first concern is to redefine the purpose of development. This should not be to develop things but develop man. Human beings have basic needs: food, shelter, clothing, health, education. Any process of growth that does not lead to their fulfilment – or even worse, disrupts them – is a travesty of the idea of development”.
Ending poverty
In the last 42 years, the United Nations has not withdrawn or modified its 1974 people-based definition of the purpose of development. But all participant countries have quietly jettisoned the jointly agreed purpose of development and adopted a model in which the social, economic, political and cultural development of people is at best secondary. This has caused enormous socio-economic inequality within and between nations, and this inequality is growing. For example, in India, one of the economically more unequal countries, the richest 1% own 58% of the wealth, with social status proportional to wealth. According to one assessment, the richest 1% of all humanity will soon own over half of the world’s private wealth.

The sustainability of such growth in socio-ecological terms is being increasingly questioned. The anti-Wall Street protests of 2011 in USA are fundamentally against inequality between the top 1% and the rest 99%. But somehow, the reasons behind these protests and many others worldwide, do not appear to have even been considered by the decision makers in Davos over the years.

In the context of sustainable economic growth, one of the Davos goals of SDG is to eradicate poverty in all its forms by 2030. Indeed, SDG Target 17.19 seeks to: “… by 2030, build on existing initiatives to develop measurements of progress on sustainable development that complement GDP”.

 Reliance on the GDP-based model of economic development that is responsible for current and growing inequality is paradoxical, and it is apt to consider Einstein’s words:  
“Problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them. Without changing our pattern of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current patterns of thought”.
It does not call for any great learning to appreciate that economic inequality increasing within a finite and shrinking resource base, leads to increase in poverty both in numbers and degree. Thus, pursuing the present economic growth model which is the cause of the huge and growing economic inequality both within and between countries, makes the SDG of poverty eradication in 15 years unachievable.

Protecting the planet
This SDG aim, going beyond semantics, betrays a mindset that humans, with their technology, can control the elemental forces of nature to “protect the planet”. The reason for articulating this aim is that the human activity of industrialization by enormous consumption of energy (fossil fuels) has caused threats to humanity itself.

The understanding that humans are a part of the planet and of the eco-systems that are at the very root of life itself, is absent from the anthropocentric mindset which seeks to protect the planet. The planet per se does not need protection.

The human species is urbanizing rapidly precisely because of the availability of fossil fuels. Urbanization is nothing but a concentration of human populations, connected intimately with availability of energy in more concentrated form, which fossil fuels provide. Today, more than half of all humans are urban creatures, who are parasitic on the energy base.

China and India, together comprising around half of humanity, both encourage urbanization as policy, both inexplicably blind to the resource-base imperative.

The energy-consumption inequality within urban agglomerations is demonstrated by the fact that the small percentage of the wealthy generate far more garbage (this includes indirectly generated industrial effluents) than the vast majority of the poor.

This garbage, mostly and increasingly non-biodegradable, pollutes surface and sub-surface water bodies, air and soil, and oceans, with visible and invisible pollution.

The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster continues to pollute the ocean with radionuclides with no real end in sight, while containing the disaster (preventing meltdown) consumes huge fossil fuel energy. All this is about degrading the environment and polluting the planet which SDGs aim to protect.

At the rural levels, agriculture is heavily energy-based, with industrial inputs like fertilisers and varying degrees of mechanization. (The growing focus on organic farming is precisely because of realisation of the ill-effects of chemical farming on pollution of soil and water, and human health).

Agricultural produce from farm-to-(urban)table is entirely dependent on fossil fuel for transportation, storage, treatment and processing. Consumption of fuel and all industrial products in agriculture produces pollution.

Every industrial output – extracted raw material, semi-finished and finished goods and the manufacturing processes – needs huge inputs of (fossil fuel) energy, and at every stage of its manufacture and transportation from under the earth to its point of consumption, needs more energy.

Products like the aircraft and automobile are of no use unless fuel is available for consumption, and in use, they generate more pollution.

Every industrial product has a “useful life” and after it is consumed, it is junk, garbage, trash; and every industrial production process produces effluents during manufacture.

It is axiomatic that more consumption means more pollution, and less consumption means less pollution, “consumption” and “pollution” being of all sorts. As the human species as a whole consumes more, it pollutes more.

And this has resulted in global warming which is causing sea level rise and manifesting as climate change, challenging life forms on the planet to adapt or perish. There is the joke of the meteorologist getting himself transferred because the weather did not agree with him.

Now Earth’s climate is changing, and humanity as a whole only has this planet and nowhere else to go, leave alone “protecting” Earth.

Prosperity for all
When the WEF included “ensuring prosperity for all” in world transformation, perhaps they meant that all seven billion human inhabitants of our planet would be sufficiently well-off to enjoy adequate nutritious food, clean water and clean air, and have enough in terms of housing, clothing, health care, education and a satisfying occupation or job which brings in enough earnings to support a family. All this in 15 years, by 2030. This is not different from the development that the 1974 Cocoyoc Conference defined.

But somewhat in keeping with the Human Development Index, prosperity should also include some intangibles like access to social, economic and political justice; liberty of thought, belief, expression, faith and worship; and equality of status and opportunity.

It has been cogently argued elsewhere that without a modicum of justice, liberty and equality within a society, socio-economic inequality cannot be reduced, and without reducing inequality, poverty cannot be meaningfully alleviated, far less ended. The WEF aims of world transformation by ending poverty and ensuring prosperity for all, may be well-intentioned.

However, what is highly questionable is whether at all they are practicable under the present GDP-based model of economic development adopted the world over, and which, within the finite resource base, is causing economic polarization and social unrest within societies.

Inconvenient truth
This paper brings uncomfortable facts to the foreground, and risks being branded as pessimistic for presenting the “dark side”. But rather than being pessimistic, it is about reality and the dangers of complacency that SDGs unintentionally propagate.

An analogy which was presented in Al Gore’s documentary film “An Inconvenient Truth”, concerns the reaction of the frog either dumped into a vessel of hot water, or placed in a vessel of water that is heated gradually. If dumped into hot water, the frog promptly jumps out, but if in the latter circumstance, it keeps adjusting until it is too late and becomes unable to jump out.

The analogy can be extended to say that humanity is like the frog in water that is being heated (global warming) by its own actions. Humanity is now sitting in the comforting warm water of SDGs. It has to act now to jump out – to a future of lower energy consumption in societies which truly embrace the values of justice, liberty and equality.

GDP-driven economic growth drives consumption, which is the primary cause for global warming. In today’s world, unsustainable GDP-based economics drives politics – and the tail wags the dog. In a sustainably transformed world, ending poverty and ensuring prosperity for all would only be possible when politics is guided by principles of justice, liberty and equality, and development is re-defined, starting perhaps with its definition in the UN Cocoyoc Conference of 1974.

World leaders have to understand that the current model of economic growth, especially in the context of finite resources and global warming, is not only unsustainable, but that it is the cause of the existential problem facing humanity. They need to understand the symbiosis of human and natural systems, realise the import of the gathering clouds of climate change, and take prompt action.

SDGs are nowhere near realistic enough. But even now it is not too late. However, if it is left until it is too late, humanity may not be able to “jump out” and even if it somehow does, there will be nowhere to go.

.

State Department seniors quit

SUBHEAD: Most of senior staff of US State Department quit Trump Administration.

By Josh Rogin on 26 January 2017 for Washington Post - 
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/01/26/the-state-departments-entire-senior-management-team-just-resigned/)


Image above: Tillerson making a fist during his Senate committee hearing. From (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2713072/rex-tillerson-donald-trump-secretary-of-state-managers-quit-on-mass/).

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s job running the State Department just got considerably more difficult. The entire senior level of management officials resigned Wednesday, part of an ongoing mass exodus of senior foreign service officers who don’t want to stick around for the Trump era.

Tillerson was actually inside the State Department’s headquarters in Foggy Bottom on Wednesday, taking meetings and getting the lay of the land. I reported Wednesday morning that the Trump team was narrowing its search for his No. 2, and that it was looking to replace the State Department’s long-serving undersecretary for management, Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy, who has been in that job for nine years, was actively involved in the transition and was angling to keep that job under Tillerson, three State Department officials told me.

Then suddenly on Wednesday afternoon, Kennedy and three of his top officials resigned unexpectedly, four State Department officials confirmed.

Assistant Secretary of State for Administration Joyce Anne Barr, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs Michele Bond and Ambassador Gentry O. Smith, director of the Office of Foreign Missions, followed him out the door. All are career foreign service officers who have served under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

Kennedy will retire from the foreign service at the end of the month, officials said. The other officials could be given assignments elsewhere in the foreign service.

In addition, Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security Gregory Starr retired Jan. 20, and the director of the Bureau of Overseas Building Operations, Lydia Muniz, departed the same day. That amounts to a near-complete housecleaning of all the senior officials that deal with managing the State Department, its overseas posts and its people.

“It’s the single biggest simultaneous departure of institutional memory that anyone can remember, and that’s incredibly difficult to replicate,” said David Wade, who served as State Department chief of staff under Secretary of State John Kerry. “Department expertise in security, management, administrative and consular positions in particular are very difficult to replicate and particularly difficult to find in the private sector.”

Several senior foreign service officers in the State Department’s regional bureaus have also left their posts or resigned since the election. But the emptying of leadership in the management bureaus is more disruptive because those offices need to be led by people who know the department and have experience running its complicated bureaucracies. There’s no easy way to replace that via the private sector, said Wade.

“Diplomatic security, consular affairs, there’s just not a corollary that exists outside the department, and you can least afford a learning curve in these areas where issues can quickly become matters of life and death,” he said. “The muscle memory is critical. These retirements are a big loss. They leave a void. These are very difficult people to replace.”

Whether Kennedy left on his own volition or was pushed out by the incoming Trump team is a matter of dispute inside the department. Just days before he resigned, Kennedy was taking on more responsibility inside the department and working closely with the transition. His departure was a surprise to other State Department officials who were working with him.

One senior State Department official who responded to my requests for comment said that all the officials had previously submitted their letters of resignation, as was required for all positions that are appointed by the president and that require confirmation by the Senate, known as PAS positions.

“No officer accepts a PAS position with the expectation that it is unlimited. And all officers understand that the President may choose to replace them at any time,” this official said. “These officers have served admirably and well. Their departure offers a moment to consider their accomplishments and thank them for their service. These are the patterns and rhythms of the career service.”

Ambassador Richard Boucher, who served as State Department spokesman for Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, said that while there’s always a lot of turnover around the time a new administration takes office, traditionally senior officials work with the new team to see who should stay on in their roles and what other jobs might be available. But that’s not what happened this time.

The officials who manage the building and thousands of overseas diplomatic posts are charged with taking care of Americans overseas and protecting U.S. diplomats risking their lives abroad. The career foreign service officers are crucial to those functions as well as to implementing the new president’s agenda, whatever it may be, Boucher said.

“You don’t run foreign policy by making statements, you run it with thousands of people working to implement programs every day,” Boucher said. “To undercut that is to undercut the institution.”

By itself, the sudden departure of the State Department’s entire senior management team is disruptive enough. But in the context of a president who railed against the U.S. foreign policy establishment during his campaign and secretary of state with no government experience, the vacancies are much more concerning.




.

How Great the Fall Can Be

SUBHEAD: In the fall of a civilization things you think of as important and necessary are going to go away.


By John MIchael Greer on 25 January 2017 for The Archdruid Report -
(http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2017/01/how-great-fall-can-be.html)


Image above: Cover art of Supertamp album "Crisis? What Crisis?" From ().

While I type these words, an old Supertramp CD is playing in the next room. Those of my readers who belong to the same slice of an American generation I do will likely remember the words Roger Hodgson is singing just now, the opening line from “Fool’s Overture”:

“History recalls how great the fall can be...”

It’s an apposite quote for a troubled time.

Over the last year or so, in and among the other issues I’ve tried to discuss in this blog, the US presidential campaign has gotten a certain amount of air time.

Some of the conversations that resulted generated a good deal more heat than light, but then that’s been true across the board since Donald Trump overturned the established certainties of American political life and launched himself and the nation on an improbable trajectory toward our current situation.

Though the diatribes I fielded from various sides were more than occasionally tiresome, I don’t regret making the election a theme for discussion here, as it offered a close-up view of issues I’ve been covering for years now.

A while back on this blog, for example, I spent more than a year sketching out the process by which civilizations fall and dark ages begin, with an eye toward the next five centuries of North American history—a conversation that turned into my book Dark Age America.

Among the historical constants I discussed in the posts and the book was the way that governing elites and their affluent supporters stop adapting their policies to changing political and economic conditions, and demand instead that political and economic conditions should conform to their preferred policies.

That’s all over today’s headlines, as the governing elites of the industrial world cower before the furious backlash sparked by their rigid commitment to the failed neoliberal nostrums of global trade and open borders.

Another theme I discussed in the same posts and book was the way that science and culture in a civilization in decline become so closely identified with the interests of the governing elite that the backlash against the failed policies of the elite inevitably becomes a backlash against science and culture as well. We’ve got plenty of that in the headlines as well.

According to recent news stories, for example, the Trump administration plans to scrap the National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and get rid of all the federal offices that study anthropogenic climate change.

Their termination with extreme prejudice isn’t simply a matter of pruning the federal bureaucracy, though that’s a factor.

All these organizations display various forms of the identification of science and culture with elite values just discussed, and their dismantling will be greeted by cheers from a great many people outside the circles of the affluent, who have had more than their fill of patronizing lectures from their self-proclaimed betters in recent years.

Will many worthwhile programs be lost, along with a great deal that’s less than worthwhile? Of course. That’s a normal feature of the twilight years of a civilization.

A couple of years before the sequence of posts on dark age America, for that matter, I did another series on the end of US global hegemony and the rough road down from empire. That sequence also turned into a book, Decline and Fall.

In the posts and the book, I pointed out that one of the constants of the history of democratic societies—actual democracies, warts and all, as distinct from the imaginary “real democracy” that exists solely in rhetoric—is a regular cycle of concentration and diffusion of power. The ancient Greek historian Polybius, who worked it out in detail, called it anacyclosis.

A lot can be said about anacyclosis, but the detail that’s relevant just now is the crisis phase, when power has become so gridlocked among competing power centers that it becomes impossible for the system to break out of even the most hopelessly counterproductive policies.

That ends, according to Polybius, when a charismatic demagogue gets into power, overturns the existing political order, and sets in motion a general free-for-all in which old alliances shatter and improbable new ones take shape.

Does that sound familiar? In a week when union leaders emerged beaming from a meeting with the new president, while Democrats are still stoutly defending the integrity of the CIA, it should.

For that matter, one of the central themes of the sequence of posts and the book was the necessity of stepping back from global commitments that the United States can no longer afford to maintain. That’s happening, too, though it’s being covered up just now by a great deal of Trumped-up bluster about a massive naval expansion.

If we do get a 350-ship navy in the next decade, I’d be willing to bet that a lot of those ships will turn out to be inexpensive corvettes, like the ones the Russians have been using so efficiently as cruise missile platforms on the Caspian Sea.

European politicians are squawking at top volume about the importance of NATO, which means in practice the continuation of a scheme that allows most European countries to push most of the costs of their own defense onto the United States, but the new administration doesn’t seem to be buying it.

Mind you, I’m far from enthusiastic about the remilitarization of Europe. Outside the brief interval of enforced peace following the Second World War, Europe has been a boiling cauldron of warfare since its modern cultures began to emerge out of the chaos of the post-Roman dark ages.

Most of the world’s most devastating wars have been European in origin, and of course it escapes no one’s attention in the rest of the world that it was from Europe that hordes of invaders and colonizers swept over the entire planet from the sixteenth through the nineteenth centuries, as often as not leaving total devastation in their wake.

In histories written a thousand years from now, Europeans will have the same sort of reputation that Huns and Mongols have today—and it’s only in the fond fantasies of those who think history has a direction that those days are definitely over.

It can’t be helped, though, for the fact of the matter is that the United States can no longer afford to foot the bill for the defense of other countries.

Behind a facade of hallucinatory paper wealth, our nation is effectively bankrupt. The only thing that enables us to pay our debts now is the status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency—this allows the Treasury to issue debt at a breakneck pace and never have to worry about the cost—and that status is trickling away as one country after another signs bilateral deals to facilitate trading in other currencies.

Sooner or later, probably in the next two decades, the United States will be forced to default on its national debt, the way Russia did in 1998.

Before that happens, a great many currently overvalued corporations that support themselves by way of frantic borrowing will have done the same thing by way of the bankruptcy courts, and of course the vast majority of America’s immense consumer debt will have to be discharged the same way.

That means, among other things, that the extravagant lifestyles available to affluent Americans in recent decades will be going away forever in the not too distant future.

That’s another point I made in Decline and Fall and the series of posts that became raw material for it.

During the era of US global hegemony, the five per cent of our species who lived in the United States disposed of a third of the world’s raw materials and manufactured products and a quarter of its total energy production.

That disproportionate share came to us via unbalanced patterns of exchange hardwired into the global economy, and enforced at gunpoint by the military garrisons we keep in more than a hundred countries worldwide.

The ballooning US government, corporate, and consumer debt load of recent years was an attempt to keep those imbalances in place even as their basis in geopolitics trickled away. Now the dance is ending and the piper has to be paid.

There’s a certain bleak amusement to be had from the fact that one of the central themes of this blog not that many years back—“Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush”—has already passed its pull date. The rush, in case you haven’t noticed, is already under way.

The fraction of US adults of working age who are permanently outside the work force is at an all-time high; so is the fraction of young adults who are living with their parents because they can’t afford to start households of their own.

There’s good reason to think that the new administration’s trade and immigration policies may succeed in driving both those figures down, at least for a while, but of course there will be a price to be paid for that—and those industries and social classes that have profited most from the policies of the last thirty years, and threw their political and financial weight behind the Clinton campaign, will be first in line to pay it. Vae victis! (Woe to the vanquished!)

More generally, the broader landscape of ideas this blog has tried to explore since its early days remains what it is.

The Earth’s economically accessible reserves of fossil carbon dwindle day by day; with each year that passes, on average, the amount of coal, oil, and natural gas burnt exceeds the amount that’s discovered by a wider margin; the current temporary glut in the oil markets is waning so fast that analysts are predicting the next price spike as soon as 2018.

Talk of transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy, on the one hand, or nuclear power on the other, remains talk—I encourage anyone who doubts this to look up the amount of fossil fuels burnt each year over the last two decades and see if they can find a noticeable decrease in global fossil fuel consumption to match the much-ballyhooed buildout of solar and wind power.

The industrial world remains shackled to fossil fuels for most of its energy and all of its transportation fuel, for the simple reason that no other energy source in this end of the known universe provides the abundant, concentrated, and fungible energy supply that’s needed to keep our current lifestyles going.

There was always an alternative—deliberately downshifting out of the embarrassing extravagance that counts for normal lifestyles in the industrial world these days, accepting more restricted ways of living in order to leave a better world for our descendants—but not enough people were willing to accept that alternative to make a difference while there was still a chance.

Meanwhile the other jaw of the vise that’s tightening around the future is becoming increasingly visible just now. In the Arctic, freak weather systems has sucked warm air up from lower latitudes and brought the normal process of winter ice formation to a standstill.

In the Antarctic, the Larsen C ice shelf, until a few years ago considered immovable by most glaciologists, is in the process of loosing an ice sheet the size of Delaware into the Antarctic Ocean. I look out my window and see warm rain falling; here in the north central Appalachians, in January, it’s been most of a month since the thermometer last dipped below freezing.

The new administration has committed itself to do nothing about anthropogenic climate change, but then, despite plenty of talk, the Obama administration didn’t do anything about it either.

There’s good reason for that, too.

The only way to stop anthropogenic climate change in its tracks is to stop putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and doing that would require the world to ground its airlines, turn its highways over to bicycles and oxcarts, and shut down every other technology that won’t be economically viable if it has to depend on the diffuse intermittent energy available from renewable sources.

Does the political will to embrace such changes exist? Since I know of precisely three climate change scientists, out of thousands, who take their own data seriously enough to cut their carbon footprint by giving up air travel, it’s safe to say that the answer is “no.”

So, basically, we’re in for it.

The thing that fascinates me is that this is something I’ve been saying for the whole time this blog has been appearing.

The window of opportunity for making a smooth transition to a renewable future slammed shut in the early 1980s, when majorities across the industrial world turned their backs on the previous decade’s promising initiatives toward sustainability, and bought into the triumphalist rhetoric of the Reagan-Thatcher counterrevolution instead.

Since then, year after weary year, most of the green movement—with noble exceptions—has been long on talk and short on action.

Excuses for doing nothing and justifications for clinging to lifestyles the planet cannot support have proliferated like rabbits on Viagra, and most of the people who talked about sustainability at all took it for granted that the time to change course was still somewhere conveniently off in the future. That guaranteed that the chance to change course would slide steadily further back into the past.

There was another detail of the post-Seventies sustainability scene that deserves discussion, though, because it’s been displayed with an almost pornographic degree of nakedness in the weeks just past.

From the early days of the peak oil movement in the late 1990s on, a remarkably large number of the people who talked eagerly about the looming crisis of our age seemed to think that its consequences would leave them and the people and things they cared about more or less intact.

That wasn’t universal by any means; there were always some people who grappled with the hard realities that the end of the fossil fuel age was going to impose on their own lives; but all things considered, there weren’t that many, in comparison to all those who chattered amiably about how comfortable they’d be in their rural doomsteads, lifeboat communities, Transition Towns, et al.

Now, as discussed earlier in this post, we’ve gotten a very modest helping of decline and fall, and people who were enthusiastically discussing the end of the industrial age not that long ago are freaking out six ways from Sunday.

If a relatively tame event like the election of an unpopular president can send people into this kind of tailspin, what are they going to do the day their paychecks suddenly turn out to be worth only half as much in terms of goods and services as before—a kind of event that’s already become tolerably common elsewhere, and could quite easily happen in this country as the dollar loses its reserve currency status?

What kinds of meltdowns are we going to get when internet service or modern health care get priced out of reach, or become unavailable at any price?

How are they going to cope if the accelerating crisis of legitimacy in this country causes the federal government to implode, the way the government of the Soviet Union did, and suddenly they’re living under cobbled-together regional governments that don’t have the money to pay for basic services?

What sort of reaction are we going to see if the US blunders into a sustained domestic insurgency—suicide bombs going off in public places, firefights between insurgent forces and government troops, death squads from both sides rounding up potential opponents and leaving them in unmarked mass graves—or, heaven help us, all-out civil war?

This is what the decline and fall of a civilization looks like. It’s not about sitting in a cozy earth-sheltered home under a roof loaded with solar panels, living some close approximation of a modern industrial lifestyle, while the rest of the world slides meekly down the chute toward history’s compost bin, leaving you and yours untouched.

It’s about political chaos—meaning that you won’t get the leaders you want, and you may not be able to count on the rule of law or even the most basic civil liberties.

It’s about economic implosion—meaning that your salary will probably go away, your savings almost certainly won’t keep its value, and if you have gold bars hidden in your home, you’d better hope to Hannah that nobody ever finds out, or it’ll be a race between the local government and the local bandits to see which one gets to tie your family up and torture them to death, starting with the children, until somebody breaks and tells them where your stash is located.

It’s about environmental chaos—meaning that you and the people you care about may have many hungry days ahead as crazy weather messes with the harvests, and it’s by no means certain you won’t die early from some tropical microbe that’s been jarred loose from its native habitat to find a new and tasty home in you.

It’s about rapid demographic contraction—meaning that you get to have the experience a lot of people in the Rust Belt have already, of walking past one abandoned house after another and remembering the people who used to live there, until they didn’t any more.

More than anything else, it’s about loss.

Things that you value—things you think of as important, meaningful, even necessary—are going to go away forever in the years immediately ahead of us, and there will be nothing you can do about it.

It really is as simple as that.

People who live in an age of decline and fall can’t afford to cultivate a sense of entitlement.

Unfortunately, for reasons discussed at some length in one of last month’s posts, the notion that the universe is somehow obliged to give people what they think they deserve is very deeply engrained in American popular culture these days.

That’s a very unwise notion to believe right now, and as we slide further down the slope, it could very readily become fatal—and no, by the way, I don’t mean that last adjective in a metaphorical sense.

History recalls how great the fall can be, Roger Hodgson sang. In our case, it’s shaping up to be one for the record books—and those of my readers who have worked themselves up to the screaming point about the comparatively mild events we’ve seen so far may want to save some of their breath for the times ahead when it’s going to get much, much worse.
.

Trump the Growthist

SUBHEAD: President Donald Trump and his brief interregum in a growth economy.

By Erik Lindberg on 24 January 2017 for Resilience -
(http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-01-24/donald-trump-and-economic-growth-a-brief-interregnum-on-growthism/)


Image above: A passerby looks at a statue of Donald Trump in the nude on August 18 2016 in San Francisco. The Republican nominee may have exaggerated his height in order to decrease his BMI. From (http://www.vocativ.com/359585/did-trump-add-an-inch-to-avoid-being-technically-obese/).

What is wrong with the economy?”—that is the question that has driven American politics at least since Reagan, and of course is still driving it today.

For Reagan, the simple answer was that freedom had been curtailed.  Unleash the dreams, drive, and desires of the American people, said Reagan, and there are no limits to what we can accomplish or how much growth we should expect.\That simple message has been maintained with only minor modification through the presidencies of two Bushes, almost two Clintons, and Obama.

True, the Republicans tell us we can realize our dreams by way of liberty and deregulation, while Democrats (with somewhat more complexity) have emphasized the role of education and public investment. But beyond that, there is little disagreement, which is also why we have maintained our democratic decorum with relatively little trouble.

Despite whatever differences we often emphasize, liberals and conservatives have thus shared the belief that our common good resides in an expanding and growing world of material improvements, a broadening of horizons, increasing mobility, choice, possibility.

They have shared the keywords of limitless and infinite, arguing only over differences in how to map our progress and chart our course “forward” towards this ever-receding horizon of limitless possibility.

This has come to an end with Donald Trump’s new metaphorics of economics.  To the question, “What is wrong with the economy?”

Trump answers: we have made bad deals.  While it is certainly true that Trump’s business experience as a real estate developer and talk-show host (both equally requiring the so called “art” of the deal) colors his interpretation of macroeconomics, something much larger is afoot, and is embedded in this new way of answering our inescapable political question.

For implied in his focus on the deal and the bargaining-table are a number of unique assumptions. Chief among these, I think, is that the total amount of goods and services available are, at some level, fixed.

Trump doesn’t say this outright, but his words carry weight only if this is true.  His is a new mercantilism, a return to values that have been on the ropes for the past five-hundred years.

The deal-maker truly thrives in a world without the “win-wins” we have come to accept as a part of the normalized, but mythical, arc of a progressive history.  Although Trump is certainly not anti-growth, Trump’s economic vision operates independently of growth and his appeal is fueled by its waning.

In a fast-growing economy, Trump would be irrelevant and his focus on deal-making would appear trite and meaningless, a side-show to the primary business of expansion, the ravings of a monomaniacal out-of-work reality TV star.  In a world where growth has stalled, or has not kept its promise, he becomes the hero of the masses and the president of the land, most had believed, of eternal Growth.

From Reagan to Obama (and even to would-be Clinton II), the assumption had always been that more technology, more education, more freedom, more equality, more investment, less regulation, and so on and so on, would always create more bounty, around which little fighting would be required (only an ignoramus would turn away, fists clenched, from such possibility and promise).

One of the main political points of economic growth was the way it allowed even the losers to win.  Self-interest could therefore also be magnanimous, inclusive, enlightened, universalizing.

With Trump, at least by dint of emphasis, the assumption is that we must fight others, and beat them without mercy and without reservation, to get what we want.  The economy is not suffering, here, because of a failure of innovation.

It is suffering because we let the Chinese or Mexicans take our stuff. . . and now, goddammit, we want it back.

Self-interest is pugnacious, combative, and belligerent (America First)—very much in keeping with the entire package of Trump, who maintains great consistency amidst the unpredictable veneer.  This is not to say that Trump is anti-growth.  But it is to say that he presents himself as the messiah who redeems the American project in a zero-sum world.

What are we to make of this? 

The standard liberal answer would be to follow our Silicon Valley leaders and new Wall Street friends and double-down on innovation and growth, open the last corners of the world to ever-more trade, and invest in the so-called knowledge economy—messages that fit easily with the other liberal message of inclusion and increased freedoms for the previously dispossessed and marginalized others.

Regular readers of Resilience of course realize that this economic program has a strong mythical element.

Yes, I would remind us all, but without any joy, economic growth has been the strangely elastic glue (the subject of this series) that has held the body politic together—or sufficiently apart.

But economic growth was never simply about innovation or freedom; it was about using energy to turn more and more natural resources into more and more usable products under very specific historical conditions; it was not to be sustained without breaching ecological limits.

The price of continued economic growth will be an overheated planet, ecosystems spinning out of control, more war, famine, waves of forced migration initiated by political instability, a further narrowing of our trust horizons leading to tribalism and nationalism, the election of populist right-wing demagogues. . .

Like others, I have elsewhere suggested that Trump is a symptom of the end of growth.  I have long assumed that the end of growth would create exactly the sort of dangerous neo-populism and probably violent economic nationalism that Trump represents.

But what is left of the hopeful liberal in me had also held out the possibility that, at the same time, the end of growth would have also spawned a vigorous and vibrant post-growth communitarianism–that educated, structurally and system-minded liberals, at the least, would join a post-growth movement founded on values of earth care, people care, and fair share.

But as of yet, such values remain secluded in a small and powerless subculture. Liberal America is as lost as Trump with its unarticulated hopes for the rise of a cosmopolitan global middle-class, eight billion strong–a view that belies all reason and all math.

Because growth had become magnanimous, or so we could reasonably believe, liberals have narrowed their horizons to growth and only growth as the foundational value.  It had not occurred to me that the hard, boorish, and belligerent right would be the first to plant its flag in the end of growth.  But it has–whether it is aware of it or not.

To put this another way, yet to emerge is a widespread post-growth political movement grounded in universalism (rather than nationalism), in cosmopolitanism (rather than tribalism), in empathy (rather than pugilism), in sharing what is left (rather than competing over it).

Perhaps I was hoping for too much—for the impossible transplanting of a kind of altruism and generosity that, ultimately, may be the result only of growth and expansion, into conditions of contraction.

But the possibility that a whole-planet populism is not simply a contradiction in terms—however slight it may be—will keep me going for another round.

.

Trump orders shale oil pipelines

SUBHEAD: President sign executive order to allow construction of Keystone and Dakota Access pipelines

By Tyler Durden on 24 January 201 for Zero Hedge -
(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/trump-sign-executive-orders-advancing-keystone-dakota-pipelines)

http://www.islandbreath.org/2017Year/01/170124keystonebig.jpg
Image above: Map showing route of Keystone XL Pipeline. From original article. Click to enlarge.

It is now official, Trump has signed executives orders to advance the construction of the controversial Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, according to which the US will renegotiate terms on the two pipelines.

As part of the announcement Trump said "if the US build pipelines, the pipes shoudl be made in the US" and added that "order streamlines cumbersome manufacturing regulations." He called the regulatory process a "tangled up mess."

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the moves on the pipelines will be subject to the terms and conditions being renegotiated by the U.S.

President Barack Obama killed the proposed Keystone XL pipeline in late 2015, saying it would hurt American efforts to reach a global climate change deal. The pipeline would run from Canada to U.S. refineries in the Gulf Coast. The U.S. government needs to approve the pipeline because it crossed the border.

The Army Corps of Engineers decided last year to explore alternate routes for the Dakota pipeline after the Standing Rock Sioux tribe and its supporters said the pipeline threatened1 drinking water and Native American cultural sites.

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Standing Rock has changed us 12/9/16
Ea O Ka Aina: As Standing Rock celebrates... 12/5/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Army Corps denies easement 12/4/16
Ea O Ka Aina: My Whole Heart is With You 12/2/16
Ea O Ka Aina: The Loving Containment of Courage 12/1/16
Ea O Ka Aina: The Beginning is Near 12/1/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Feds to shutdown NoDAPL Camp 11/25/16
Ea O Ka Aina: NoDAPL people are going to die 11/23/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Hundreds of vets to join NoDAPL 11/22/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Obama must support Standing Rock 11/21/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Trump's pro oil stance vs NoDaPL 11/15/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Kauai NoDAPL Demonstration 11/12/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Obama to Betray Standing Rock 11/12/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Trump impact on Standing Rock 11/12/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Ann Wright on Standing Rock 11/8/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Turning Point at Standing Rock 11/6/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Jackson Browne vs DAPL owner 11/5/16
Democracy Now: Boycott of DAPL Owner's Music Festival
Ea O Ka Aina: World responds to NoDAPL protests 11/5/16
Ea O Ka Aina: NoDAPL victory that was missed 11/5/16
Ea O Ka Aina: DAPL hid discovery of Sioux artifacts 11/5/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Dakota Access Pipeline will leak 11/5/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Route of the Dakota Access Pipeline 11/4/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Sanders calls for stopping DAPL 11/4/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Obama hints at DAPL rerouting 11/3/16
Ea O Ka Aina: New military attack on NODAPL 11/3/16
Ea O Ka Aina: How to Support NoDAPL 11/3/16
Unicorn Riot: Tweets from NoDAPL 11/2/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Standing Rock & the Ballot Box 10/31/16
Ea O Ka Aina: NoDAPL reclaim new frontline 10/24/16
Ea O Ka Aina: How far will North Dakota go? 10/23/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Amy Goodman "riot" charge dropped 10/17/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Amy Goodwin to face "Riot Charge" 10/16/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Shutdown of all tar sand pipelines 10/11/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Why Standing Rock is test for Oabama 10/8/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Why we are Singing for Water 10/8/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Labor's Dakota Access Pipeline Crisis 10/3/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Standing Firm for Standing Rock 10/3/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Contact bankers behind DAPL 9/29/16
Ea O Ka Aina: NoDAPL demo at Enbridge Inc 9/29/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Militarized Police raid NoDAPL 9/28/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Stop funding of Dakota Access Pipeline 9/27/16
Ea O Ka Aina: UN experts to US, "Stop DAPL Now!" 9/27/16
Ea O Ka Aina: No DAPL solidarity grows 9/21/16
Ea O Ka Aina: This is how we should be living 9/16/16
Ea O Ka Aina: 'Natural Capital' replacing 'Nature' 9/14/16
Ea O Ka Aina: The Big Difference at Standing Rock 9/13/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Jill Stein joins Standing Rock Sioux 9/10/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Pipeline temporarily halted 9/6/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Native Americans attacked with dogs 9/5/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Mni Wiconi! Water is Life! 9/3/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Sioux can stop the Pipeline 8/28/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Officials cut water to Sioux 8/23/16

.

Monsanto and First Amendment

SOURCE: Russ Pascatore (russ.pascatore@titanx.com)
SUBHEAD: Protesters supported by donations are not a new idea. There are national holidays for some of them.

By Billy Talen on 24 January 2017 for Al Jazeera -
(http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/monsanto-amendment-170124075931929.html)


Image above: Reverend Billy getting arrested during an anti-Monsanto protest in Des Moines, Iowa in 2016. Photo by Sharon Donovan. From original article.

On January 11 in Des Moines, Iowa, Reverend Billy Talen and his co-defendant, Father Frank Cordaro, were found innocent of the charge of trespass, with possible $500 fine and 30 days in prison. In her decision, Judge Carol Coppola refused to accept the prosecution's motion to stop Talen and Cordaro from invoking the First Amendment in their defence.

"Your honour - he's a professional protester!" the Assistant District Attorney called out in horror. Wylie Stecklow, my long-suffering pro-bono lawyer standing next to me, cast a wry sidelong glance.

Why the demonisation of protest?

Protesters supported by volunteer donations are not a new idea. We create national holidays for some of the prominent ones. Sometimes, you just have to go out and ask for help! In the Church of Stop Shopping, we have 200 people who give $2 each month. We call these friends "Holy Rollers".

The motion in the link above was filed for the Iowa judge to consider before our recent trial. It proposed that my co-defendant and I not be allowed to defend our actions by invoking the First Amendment, on the grounds that we have protested many times in our past and are therefore free speech abusers. Professional protester!

Norman Siegel, for many years the head of the New York American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), told us that in his experience this motion is without precedent. Retire a portion of the Constitution for a trial? Retroactively suspend a defendant's First Amendment rights? What other kind of defence strategy would a protester even consider?

Monsanto's attacks on citizens that are critical of its popular herbicide, RoundUp, and its glyphosate toxin are similar to fundamentalist religions like Scientologists, Zionists, or the National Rifle Association.

In contrast to their problems elsewhere in the world - where half a dozen countries have enacted prohibitions on its use and more are considering such action - in the United States, the company is successful in stifling its dissent, especially in Iowa, where newspapers accept large ad buys and the government works openly to accommodate the chemical giant.

A critical researcher can be defamed publicly and dogged for years in the press and scientific journals. The recent study from Kings College's genetic researchers linking glyphosates to liver and kidney disease is the latest smoking gun, but Monsanto's spin machine will surely swing into action in the coming days.

In our case, what we were all fearing was that the prosecution was protecting Monsanto. But the government's argument blew up, as it should have. The judge was not about to banish the Constitution from her court. She dismissed the charges in about two hours, which is very quick, in court time. We didn't even select a jury.

The criminalisation of expressive freedoms may be a hallmark of Donald Trump's hate era. Iowa is a Trump state, as well as a Monsanto state. And Iowa is very much a Monsanto state: It absorbs more of the herbicide, RoundUp, than any other state in the union, and Iowa's cancer rates are said to be high.

Iowa Governor Terry Branstad endorsed Trump, and now will be the new ambassador to China. Monsanto will like that. The World Food Prize party, where we were protesting - local wags call it "Monsanto's Oscars", has been subsidised by Iowa taxpayers up to $1m annually and features big cash awards to GMO advocates. Monsanto got Iowans to pay for their poison. The party's location says it all: They rent the entire Iowa State Capitol building.

This is certain: Our nation's pro-business bias habitually places the law enforcement community in opposition to the US Constitution's protection of free speech. When the national emotion is fear, then all free speech is suspicious, and, for the corporations, free speech is a baffling gift economy. Free speech is just that: it's free. You can't sell it, therefore it must be illegal.

When the official emotion is fear, then protesters symbolise the part of life that makes change. In evolution, adaptation is made possible by the arrival of mutation, of free radicals that come in the wind and the waves and upset the host organism. You must have resistance in a healthy democracy, but the resistance will change you.
The Iowa prosecutor, after thoroughly losing this case, made a final speech about "respecting our police". The implication was that the people in the room who defend the First Amendment are disrespectful to the state troopers.

Well, respect for the Constitution and respect for our police should never be in conflict. These police handcuffed us a football field away from the state capitol's front door. They need to look again at those five freedoms: Worship, Speech, Press, Peaceable Assembly and Redress of Grievances. The First Amendment, born in 1791, makes remarkably modern instruction.

We left the courtroom knowing that there is much to be done. We are given the responsibility for this double teaching. Free speech and organic farming have common ground. They are both nature. They are wild and alive. The words and the seeds give so much, if we let them grow freely.

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Slow river through the campaigns 8/23/16
Ea O Ka Aina: Golden Toads in the Too Big to Fail 9/13/13
Ea O Ka Aina: 05/01/2010 - 06/01/2010 5/1/10
Ea O Ka Aina: Moutain Top Removal Action 6/1/10
Island Breath: The Church of Stop Shopping in Hanapepe 8/28/07

End Of American Consumerism

SUBHEAD: A re-posting of an Island Breath article about consumerism from a decade ago.

By Juan Wilson on 15 July 2007 for Island Breath -
(http://www.islandbreath.org/2007Year/20-HookahiKauai/0720-08Consumerism.html)


Image above: The Reverend Billy of the Church of Stop Shopping preaches in Times Square, NYC. From original article.

Bad Day at Kukui Grove

Americans are happy when buying stuff. We have come to love brand-names as if they were family members. We imbue the release of the next hip gadget as a spiritual revelation. Some techno-gurus have even dubbed Apple's new iPhone "The God Machine".

But often it is what gives us the greatest pleasure that is the source of our greatest frustration and suffering. Ask any junkie or ice-head. This truism not only applies for drug addicts, but to those addicted to consumption as well.

I'm speaking about that person who is bored and mildly depressed. You are looking forward to jumping in the new Honda Element and driving through winding tropical scenery to Kukui Grove.

The plan is to charge a $400 Champion Juicer at Macy's so you can "live off the land". Then your life will have meaning, and all will be right with the world. Afterwards, you can top off your shopping conquest with a mocha-latte-grande at Starbucks.

Unfortunately, in the real world, due to a raging wildfire on the way to Kukui Grove, the Honda got stuck in a three hour highway meltdown south of the Wailua Golf Course. You almost ran out of gas idling in traffic and the car's AC couldn't overcome the smoke, and now the Element doesn't smell so new.

When you finally get to Macy's and swipe your Capital One card they tell you the juicer purchase has been declined. You realize you're tapped out because you used the credit card for last month's car payment.

You head off to Starbucks for a latte to wash down a couple of aspirins and a Valium while you figure out how to tank up the car and get home before rush hour. Is this really fun?

American Consumerism
"Consumerism" is a word invented in America after the Second World War that coincides with the birth of Baby Boomers and the explosion of suburbia. Today, Americans have become characterized, more than anything else, as consumers.

Consumerism is defined as;
  1. The concept that the ever-expanding consumption of goods is advantageous to the economy.
  2. The term is used to equate personal happiness with purchasing material possessions.
  3. The movement for the protection of the consumer against useless, inferior, or dangerous products as well as unfair advertising and pricing.
There are some who are trying to save Americans from their shopping addiction before it is too late. One is Bill Talen, who as the Reverend Billy of the Church of Stop Shopping, warns of the coming Shopocalypse. He is funny and dead serious at the same time.

The Reverend Billy travels in a biodiesel fueled bus with the Stop Shopping Gospel Choir to preach from the parking lots of WalMart and Starbucks. While the Choir sings the Reverend does interventions and exorcisms.

He asks us "What would Jesus buy?" and exhorts consumers to stop shopping. Reverend Billy recommends that if you have to buy anything you should avoid the corporate franchises and chains stores and buy from locally owned businesses.

The Perfect Economic Storm
Consumerism may be the basis of our economy and the source of our "happiness", but as the central organizing principle of our culture has just about run its course. I believe consumerism, as we know it, is going away (kicking a screaming) and we will simply have to learn to sustain and entertain ourselves without it.

There is a perfect storm coming that will move us away from being consumers. The elements of the storm include...
  1. The demand for oil is exceeding supply - Sticking it out in Iraq won't fix the Peak Oil Crisis.
    The Result: Much more expensive oil.
  2. The failure of the US housing market - Hope you weren't counting on selling at the top of the market.
    The Result: Shutting off the consumer credit engine.
  3. The loss of economic leadership to China - We didn't want to make all that plastic junk anyway. Besides, it wrecks the environment.
    The Result: The US stock market crashes and the dollar can't buy anything.
The Empire Has No Clothes
It is my opinion that the there is a great struggle going on that threatens the way we live. But Bush-Cheney never really examined the underlying source. They just labeled it "The War on Terror" and started an endless shooting war with the Moslem world.

Underlying much of the resentment and hatred we see aimed at us is a rejection of Western culture and economics. It is not so much a war of religious fanaticism against our freedom and wealth as it is a clash of between socioeconomic models. It is really a battle between the First World and the Third World.

On the one hand is The First World (Western Civilization, Judeo-Christian-Agnostic Culture, a Global Economy, Corporate Rule): Its secular forces uses technology, cheap energy and cheap labor to transform us all into consumers without regard to history, local customs or spiritual development.
To what end? - Economic Growth at any cost.

On the other hand is there is the Third World (Underdeveloped Nations, Islamic Culture, Fierce Nationalism and Armed Tribalism): Its parochial forces attempt to use rigid codes to maintain cultural and religious values that preserve the traditional, stable and modest ways of living by strict adherence to arbitrary rules.

To what end? - Preservation through Obedience.

Both sound like hell to me. I'm hoping that "victory" leaves us somewhere in between. I'm looking for a modest sustainable lifestyle with intellectual and spiritual freedom - In the aina and with ohana.

On the surface the clash between the First and Third World is lopsided in favor of the West, but that is only on the surface. As we have found out in Iraq, high-tech maneuver warfare can be ground down by persistent door-to-door low-tech resistance.

As energy becomes more expensive (and it could be $75 a barrel for oil by the time you read this) the worldwide economic playing field will begin to level. We will all be living in the Third World - but with internet access.

Variation of the Golden Rule
Many in America consider themselves Christians. A central tenet is The Golden Rule: "Do unto others as you would have them do onto you."

An important corollary of that rule is "Act in a way that if everybody acted your way, the world would be a better place."

This would include an accounting of the share of the world's resources you consume. And that does not allow for trading pollution rights with natives from New Guinea.

If the Post-Peak-Oil economy does anything good, it will reduce our reliance on consumerism as our measure of our success. A wasteful use of resources will force us to face increasingly greater consequences.

We all will be forced to transform ourselves from consumers to artisans; from corporate employees to local entrepreneurs, from celebrity-wanna-bees to good neighbors. Consumerism will become a self healing wound - if it doesn't kill us first.

In the long run Americans will see that letting go of what Dick Cheney called "our nonnegotiable lifestyle" is the best thing that could happen to us. A new kind of economy and culture is self-organizing here on Kauai.

As it unfolds we will all become more native to this place - if not kanaka maoli maybe kama`aina. It will mean you won't have to make so much money or be stuck in your car all the time. It will mean you won't have to be hypnotized by your glowing TV and cellphone screen to get through the night. Kauai might even begin to feel like Kauai again.

See also:
Island Breath: Paradise Denied 9/1/10
Reverend Billy preaches against consumerism a Hanapepe's Storybook Theatre on Kauai.
.

Left Agrarian Populism

SUBHEAD: So my program is to go on asking can we produce enough to see the people through?

By Chris Smaje on 23 Janaury 2017 for Small Farm Future -
(http://smallfarmfuture.org.uk/?p=1142)


Image above: Contemporary peasnants gathering grian in North Korea.  From (http://imgur.com/r/pics/8rG4vtj).

I was aiming to take a January break from blogging, but various whisperings (and the odd shout) in my ear prompt me to put this one out into the ether right now. It’s a bit longer than my usual posts.

But on the upside you won’t hear from me again for a couple of weeks after this.

What I mostly want to do on this site over the next few months is resume exploring the alternative world of my Peasant’s Republic of Wessex.

But there’s a case for taking a step back, putting that exercise into a wider context, and laying out something of a program for the year – especially in the light of some comments I’ve recently received. So that’s what I’m going to do here.

The first comment was from Vera, who took exception to the fears I expressed in my review of 2016, A Sheep’s Vigil, that we may be witnessing an emerging fascism. She also questioned my advocacy for agrarian populism:
“maybe he is not really interested in building an agrarian populist movement — maybe, he is only interested in building an agrarian faux-populist progressively-politically-correct movement. In which case I am out. Maybe it’s time he stopped pussyfooting around and made things clear.”
Well, I’m not sure I can clarify everything in a single post, but it seems worth trying to set out as best I can what I understand left agrarian populism to be and why I support it. I don’t want to waste anyone’s time if their politics lie wholly elsewhere…

Left Agrarian Populism: So then, three key terms – ‘left’, ‘agrarian’, and ‘populist’. The last is much the trickiest. For many commentators, ‘populism’ refers to little more than the unscrupulousness of those politicians who’ll say whatever they calculate will make them most popular with the electorate. We’ve had way too much of that recently, and frankly ‘populism’ has become such a toxic brand as a result that I’m half inclined to wash my hands of it.

The reason I don’t is partly because there are historical and contemporary peasant movements I support which fly under the banner of populism, and partly because there’s an important aspect of populism which differentiates it from most other modern political traditions.

Let me expand that last point through some admittedly gross over-simplifications of three such other traditions.

First liberalism, which believes that private markets, if allowed free rein, will deliver optimum benefits to humanity.

Second conservatism, which believes in defending the established social order and fostering progress through the cultivation of individual character. Third socialism, which believes in organising human benefit on a collective, egalitarian basis through politically-guided planning.

There are elements of all three traditions I’d subscribe to, but I can’t wholly identify with any of them. A feature they share is a rather totalising normative vision of what a society should be like and how individual people ought to fit into it, and a willingness to bend the world hard to fit that vision.

Populism, by contrast, doesn’t really have a totalising normative vision in this way. It’s a politics ‘of the people’, and all it expects of people is that they’ll do their people-like things: be born, grow up, secure their livelihood, raise families, live in communities, die. That’s pretty much it. I prefer it to the stronger normativity of the other traditions.

But it only takes a moment to realise that things aren’t so simple when it comes to implementing a populist politics. Who are ‘the people’? They’re any number of individuals and groupings with endlessly jostling identifications, hostilities, aspirations and conflicts. ‘The people’ don’t exist as an undifferentiated mass any more than ‘the community’ does in your town.

So you can be pretty sure that when a politician says they’re acting in the interests of ‘the people’, they’re really acting in the interests only of certain people, a group that probably includes themselves (and may well not include the group they claim to be acting for).

You can be doubly sure of it if they say they’re acting in the interests of ‘ordinary people’, ‘real people’ or ‘the silent majority’.

I think this problem for populist politics is virtually insurmountable in highly monetised, consumerist societies characterized by wage-labour and riven by class, ethnic and national differences.

Political movements do arise in these societies under populist banners which purport to represent the interests of ‘the people’, but to my mind their claims are invariably spurious, papering over class, ethnic or other interests. And that, I think, is pretty much where we’re now at in the UK and the USA, among other places.

An aside on ‘political correctness’, the ‘alt-right’ and class
Let me go with that last sentence for a moment before returning to my populist theme. I’ll recruit for the purpose some help from John Michael Greer’s latest (1/18/17) blog post  The Hate that Dare Not Speak its Name albeit with some trepidation.

It is mishmash of half-truths and flat untruths – in which we learn, for example, that the New Left forgot social class was important until a working-class champion by the name of Donald Trump came along and took up the cudgels on behalf of the oppressed, and in which Trump’s appointment of Goldman Sachs executives to his administration somehow becomes evidence not of his own hypocrisy but that of his critics – is truly a document for these post-truth times.

In environmentalist circles Greer increasingly seems to resemble some weird kind of alter ego to Trump himself – no matter how superficial, ridiculous or outrageous his pronouncements, his fanbase only seems to grow. Still, there are a few nuggets in his piece that make a good foil for my analysis, so I’ll proceed.

Greer correctly notes that Trump garnered a lot of support from working class voters who felt disenfranchised by politics-as-usual.

But he then imputes leftist horror at Trump’s election largely to class hatred from the middle classes against those who put him there.

Even Greer can see some of the contortions involved in making such a bizarre argument stick. He tries to shore up the edifice, but what he fails to do – and what he’s consistently failed to do throughout his writings on the 2016 election – is to see that a politician who gains class support and a politician who acts in class interest aren’t necessarily the exact same thing.

The missing ingredient in Greer’s recipe is a concept of ideology – the insight that ideas about society are both systematically structured and selective, and that the relationships between things, words and actions are complex.

It’s an insight that social scientists and political thinkers have developed in numerous ways in recent times but we now seem to be in danger of forgetting. Greer could certainly have done with remembering it when he wrote this:
“The Alt-Right scene that’s attracted so much belated attention from politicians and pundits over the last year is in large part a straightforward reaction to the identity politics of the left. Without too much inaccuracy, the Alt-Right can be seen as a network of young white men who’ve noticed that every other identity group in the country is being encouraged to band together to further its own interests at their expense, and responded by saying, “Okay, we can play that game too.””
I mention this because it’s relevant to the issue of ‘political correctness’ that Vera identified in my thinking.

Although I deplore the censoriously ‘PC’ excesses of essentially insignificant bodies like student unions in their calls to “Check your privilege!” as much as the next man, or perhaps I should say as much as the next gendered subject, I think the concept of political correctness lacks any real political traction.

It stems from the kind of right-wing mythology peddled here by Greer, which posits an equivalence between different ‘identity groups’, all supposedly competing on the level playing field of life.

One of the few things I have first-hand experience of is what it’s like to be a straight, white, middle-class man – and I’d have to say that, from where I sit, alt-right politics based around that identity indeed looks to me a lot like ‘playing a game’. I’m not sure that’s always so true for people in other situations.

Somebody wrote this to me in relation to the Greer passage I cited above: “Women, Mexicans, Muslims, and LGBT folks such as myself have been working for many years to be treated fairly and respectfully, something that has been lacking in my lifetime.  None of us in these categories wish to treat “young white men” the way we have been treated.” Quite so. In contrast to Greer, I’d submit that the horror many people feel at Trump’s election arises not out of hatred, but out of fear.
There’s often a fine line between explaining a phenomenon and justifying it. To my mind, it’s a line that despite his occasional distantiating turn of phrase Greer has unquestionably now crossed – his political writing has become little more than an apologia for Trump and the alt-right. But that’s by the by. I want to take my discussion back towards agrarian populism via the issue of class with a final quotation from Greer:
“According to Marxist theory, socialist revolution is led by the radicalized intelligentsia, but it gets the muscle it needs to overthrow the capitalist system from the working classes. This is the rock on which wave after wave of Marxist activism has broken and gone streaming back out to sea, because the American working classes are serenely uninterested in taking up the world-historical role that Marxist theory assigns to them.”
There’s certainly some truth in that – and it’s why left populism appeals to me more than Marxism or socialism as such. Note, though, Greer’s slippage from ‘Marxist activism’ as an unqualified and therefore presumably global phenomenon, to its specific grounding in America (actually, the USA).

The tendency to see the USA as a synecdoche for the whole world is a mistake often made by US citizens and by the country’s overseas admirers, but I imagine it’s one that will be less commonly made in the future (when the US president says “From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first” it does, after all, drop a big hint to the remaining 96% of the world’s population about how to order their own priorities).

So, wrenching our gaze momentarily from the USA, perhaps we should ask if there are any countries where socialist revolution has been successful, at least in the short term. Well, it turns out that there are. Russia, China, Vietnam and Cuba spring to mind – all countries with large peasant populations at the time of their revolutions.

The story of how Marxism co-opted peasant revolutions – populist revolutions – to its own purposes can’t detain us here. But I want to note that, in contrast to the inherently contradictory populisms of contemporary industrial-capitalist countries, populist politics has made some headway in societies where there are a large number of poor farmers and a small, wealthy elite.

Here, populists have sometimes succeeded in clawing back some of the surplus produced by the farmers and appropriated by the elite, and more generally in validating the agrarian lifeways of the farmers as something important and worthy of respect.

And I further want to note that, in these countries, there’s been a basis for populism in social class.

Back to populism:  
So I’d argue that populist politics remains relevant in the many parts of the world where peasantries still exist in significant numbers. I think it may also be relevant in ‘post-peasant’ parts of the world such as Britain, where I live, inasmuch as various looming crises in global consumer capitalism may propel us towards more local, land-based and low energy forms of living.

That, in a nutshell, is the ‘agrarian’ part of the populism I espouse. A nice thing about it is the promise it holds out that this local, land-based, low-energy style of life can be a rewarding way to live, even if we have no choice about living it, rather than being a disastrous reversal in the progressive unfolding of industrial modernity.

But it can only be rewarding if everybody has a decent chance to live it. The agrarian populism I espouse is therefore a left populism, for two main reasons. First, even assuming a fair initial distribution of land and resources, through bad luck or bad choices some people inevitably end up less well endowed with the capacity to provide for their wellbeing than others.

If these differential endowments are inherited down the generations, then the evidence is pretty clear that before long we’re back with a downtrodden mass peasantry and a small, wealthy elite – which is to nobody’s long-term benefit, including the elite.

So a redistributive element is necessary that prevents the accumulation and defence of unearned inter-generational advantage – we can argue about the extent and form of the redistribution, but I don’t see good arguments against the fundamental need for it. Presumably that would be something on which for once John Michael Greer and I would agree.

The second reason is that while there’s something to commend the conservative trope of stand-on-your-own-two-feet-and-don’t-expect-the-world-to-owe-you-a-favour, all of us ultimately depend on numerous other people. We’re not the sole authors of our fates, and we all screw up in ways small and sometimes large in the course of our lives.

So I favor an approach to others based wherever possible (though it’s not always possible) on empathy and generosity of spirit rather than censoriousness or status competition.

And that in barest outline is how I’d characterise left agrarian populism. There’ve been places in the past where something like it has prospered for a while, and I suspect the same will be true in the future. I think a lot of human suffering could be avoided if it were to be a norm rather than an exception.

But I’m not too optimistic. What seems to me more likely as resource crises bite and the global capitalist economy hits the buffers is a slamming of shutters, a beggar-my-neighbour race for resources and an authoritarian policing of the body politic which seeks to root out any dissent from various nationalist senses of manifest destiny (“From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first” etc.)

An aside on fascism.  
In view of various comments I’ve received, including Vera’s, I’d like to clarify my use of the term ‘fascist’ to describe my fears about that kind of future. It’s a word that, I acknowledge, comes with a lot of baggage. And history never repeats itself exactly, so there’s always a debate to be had about the relevance of past events to the future.

On the other hand, history contains some useful warnings if we care to heed them. In invoking ‘fascism’, I don’t mean it as a generic term of abuse but as a reference to a fairly specific type of politics: the creation of an authoritarian corporate state grounded in an essentially mythical conception of a unified and exclusive ‘people’, in which various independent bodies that can hold the state to account such as parliaments, judiciaries and media are repressed.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the EU, a good deal of the political discourse around Brexit in the UK has been leading in that direction. The lesson I draw from the 1920s and 1930s is that people didn’t take the threat of fascism seriously enough soon enough to prevent the first stirrings of nativism and discrimination – and indeed the kind of alt-right normalisation that Greer is peddling – from later turning into all-out war and genocide.

There’s little I can do individually to stop the re-emergence of fascism if that’s the way the world is going, but I can promise to challenge it when I see it.

So when the Daily Mail calls judges ‘enemies of the people’ for deciding that parliament has to debate the Brexit referendum vote (in which, let us remember, 37% of the electorate voted to leave the EU and 35% voted to remain), the word for it is fascism.

But my main point isn’t that we’re currently under the thumb of the fascists – it’s that I can’t really see many plausible future scenarios in which President Trump or Britain’s Brexiteers will be able to deliver what many of their supporters thought they were voting for. And those conditions will be ripe for fascism – though I acknowledge that we may get away with mere xenophobic right-wing authoritarianism.

I pray that I won’t ever think the latter is the best outcome I can hope for. So let me be clear – I’m not using the word ‘fascist’ out of contempt for people I simply disagree with. I’m using it out of fear for what the future holds, and out of determination to work for something better.

Left agrarian populism, again:  
That ‘something better’ is left agrarian populism. But perhaps I’ve caught myself in a contradiction here. I emphasised above the actual rather than the normative basis of populist politics.

Given that nothing remotely approximating left agrarian populism currently animates western politics except at its furthest fringes, a programme for realising it involves advocating for it normatively as an ‘ought’, a political ideal around which the world needs remodelling. So in that sense perhaps agrarian populism is no less normative or totalising than, say, liberalism.

I can think of various ways to try to get myself off that hook – by arguing, for example, that our modern ideologies of progress have warped our thinking away from the honest actuality of making a living from the land, or by arguing that whether we like it or not the gathering crisis of global consumer capitalism is going to deliver us (if we’re lucky) into a world of local self-reliance, to which an agrarian populist politics is best fitted. There’s some mileage in such arguments, but ultimately they’re a bit lame.

So maybe I have to argue that when all is said and done left agrarian populism is just a normative political ideology like any other – one that I happen to think answers the puzzles of contemporary human existence better than others, partly indeed because it doesn’t opine normatively too much on how people ought to live other than by saying, well, they do have to live, they have to do that by farming, and their farming should try to screw other people and the rest of the planet as little as possible.

In that sense perhaps my populism is rather impure, drawing on aspects of liberalism, conservatism and socialism.

So maybe Vera is right that the populism I espouse is a ‘faux populism’ – though, if she is, then I’d venture to say that all populisms are ‘faux populisms’, since I don’t think there can be any singular, historically fixed or ideologically neutral conception of ‘the people’, still less ‘the people’s will’. All populisms reference other political ideologies.

When I wrote about this previously, Tom Smith questioned the extent to which my position was different from socialism. I think it is different in the way it understands the relationship between peasants or farmers, states and historical change.

But maybe not all that different – it is a left populism, after all. Suffice to say that it probably has more common ground with socialism than with forms of right-wing populism that consider the concept of ‘political correctness’ to be useful.

But I’d hope that at least it lacks the disdain of Marxists and certain other flavours of socialism for peasants and the petit bourgeoisie. In fact, that’s exactly where I see the best hope for a left agrarian populism – as a class movement.

The fact that, as I’ve mentioned, there’s virtually no extant peasant or petty proprietor class in western countries is therefore a bit of an inconvenience for my politics. I do have some cards up my sleeve on that front that I’ll lay out in later posts. Though I confess they don’t make for the greatest of hands.

Whatever anyone might think of the case for a left agrarian populism, it certainly won’t get far if it can’t furnish people with their basic needs. So the aim of the vast number-crunching exercise I’ve been undertaking over the past few months in relation to the Peasant’s Republic of Wessex has been to check for myself, if for no one else, whether it can.

It often surprises me that such exercises aren’t more commonly undertaken by government agencies with the funding to do them properly and the remit to secure the wellbeing of their populace.

On that note, I was struck by the reasons Michael gave in a comment under my last post for why such exercises aren’t more routinely undertaken – “too divisive, nationalistic, fear-mongering”. I was also struck by the following passage in Georges Duby’s classic history of the medieval European economy,
“Wherever economic planning existed, it was seen in the context of needs to be satisfied. What was expected of manorial production was that it should be equal to foreseeable demand…It was not a question of maximizing output from the land, but rather of maintaining it at such a level that it could respond to any request at a moment’s notice”1
In that sense my mindset is medieval. The question that interests me is the same one, at whatever scale – can we produce what we need in the next period to see the people through? The modern mindset asks a different question – how can we produce the highest profit from these inputs?

In modern society, the bridge between that question and the first one is usually provided, if it’s sought at all, by some kind of ‘implicit virtue’ notion in the tradition belonging to Mandeville’s fable of the bees, Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’, and Milton Friedman’s ‘capitalism and freedom’.

What’s becoming increasingly clear – as other thinkers have long been warning – is that there is no invisible hand, or if there is its designs are forever being thwarted by an invisible foot which, just as the hand works yet another miracle, simply can’t help treading in the next bit of shit up the road.

So my program for the year, aside from a few digressions and diversions, is to go on asking the question – can we produce enough to see the people through? And once I’ve addressed that as best I can I’ll continue by asking how we might organise ourselves socially and politically to help us do so.

That’ll take me deep into the history and the politics of agricultural production and agrarian populism, wherein I hope I might be able to find some more productive ways out of the crises facing us than the dispiriting contemporary populisms of Donald Trump, Nigel Farage and their fellow travellers. If you’ve read this far, I hope you’ll be travelling in fellowship with me.

But if not, I hope you get the politics you want from the other paths you tread – so long as it doesn’t involve selfishly trampling over other people. Ach, me and my danged outmoded liberalism…

Notes
  1. Duby, G. 1974. The Early Growth Of The European Economy, Cornell Univ Press, p.92.


.