2% Solution for the Planet

SUBHEAD: One example is clothing yourself from within a local or regional fibershed.

By Courtney White on 15 October 2015 for the Carbon Pilgrim -
(https://carbonpilgrim.wordpress.com/2015/10/15/2-solutions-for-the-planet/)


Image above: San Francisco Bay area fibershed efforts. From (http://www.bayareagreentours.org/wordpress/wordpress/fibershed-tour-new-tour-2014/).

Since we live in an era of big problems, we tend to spend our time thinking of big solutions. Thinking big, however, can have a paralyzing effect on taking action.

In my new book Two Percent Solutions for the Planet, I take readers on a journey around the world where low-cost, easy-to-implement solutions are regenerating the planet now, rather than in some distant future.

Two Percent Solutions for the Planet profiles fifty innovative practices that soak up carbon dioxide in soils, reduce energy use, sustainably intensify food production, and increase both water quality and quantity.

Why “two percent"? It is an illustrative number meant to stimulate our imaginations. It refers to: the amount of new carbon in the soil needed to reap a wide variety of ecological and economic benefits; the percentage of the nation’s population who are farmers and ranchers; and the low financial cost (in terms of GDP) needed to get this work done.

Big solutions, in other words, can be accomplished for small costs. They are solutions that are regenerative over the long haul, meaning they replete rather than deplete people, animals, plants, soil and other natural resources. See: http://www.chelseagreen.com/two-percent-solutions-for-the-planet

From the Prologue:
We live in an era of seemingly intractable challenges: increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, rising food demands from a human population that is projected to expand from seven to nine billion people by 2050, and dwindling supplies of fresh water, to name just three. What to do? So far, our response to these big problems has been to consider “big” solutions, including complex technologies, arm-twisting treaties, untested geoengineering strategies, and new layers of regulation, all of which have the net effect of increasing complexity (and anxiety) in our lives. And most of these big solutions come with big costs, both financial and social, especially for those least able to bear them.
Which raised a question in my mind a few years ago: Why not consider low-cost, low-tech, nature-based solutions instead?

I knew this was possible based on my experience with the Quivira Coalition, a New Mexico–based nonprofit that I cofounded in 1997 with a cattle rancher and a fellow conservationist. Our original goal was to find common ground between ranchers, conservationists, public land managers, scientists, and others around progressive livestock grazing practices that were good for both the land and its inhabitants.

Over time our work increasingly focused on building economic and ecological resilience in the West, with a special emphasis on ecological restoration, local food production, and bridging urban-rural divides.

Through Quivira, I had met many innovative people who had been hard at work for decades field-testing and implementing a wide variety of regenerative land management practices, proving them to be practical, profitable, and effective.

These practices, such as planned grazing by livestock and the ecological restoration of creeks, are principally low-tech, involving photosynthesis, water, plants, animals, and thoughtful stewardship rather than big-ticket technologies.

I knew they improved land health, produced food, and repaired broken water cycles. What I didn’t know was how they might address the rising challenge of greenhouse gas buildup in our atmosphere.

This changed in 2009 when a Worldwatch Institute report, “Mitigating Climate Change Through Food and Land Use,” landed on my desk. Its authors argued that the potential for removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through plant photosynthesis and related land-based carbon sequestration activities was both large and largely overlooked.

Strategies they listed included enriching soil carbon, no-till farming with perennials, employing climate-friendly livestock practices, conserving natural habitat, and restoring degraded watersheds and rangelands.

That sounded like the work of the Quivira Coalition!

Exploring further, I discovered that many other regenerative practices also sequester CO2 in soils and plants as well as address food and water problems. The link, I learned, was carbon. It’s the soil beneath our feet, the plants that grow, the land we walk, the wildlife we watch, the livestock we raise, the food we eat, the energy we use, and the air we breathe.

Carbon is the essential element of life. A highly efficient carbon cycle captures, and stores biochemical energy, making everything go and grow from the soil up. A healthy carbon cycle, I realized, had a wide range of positive benefits for every living thing on the planet.

However, I also discovered that carbon sequestration in soils and the climate change mitigation potential of these regenerative and resilient practices was nearly unknown to the general public, much less to decision makers and others in leadership positions. Even within progressive ranching, farming, and conservation communities, the multiple economic and ecological gains that come from increasing carbon in soils were largely overlooked.

The story of carbon needed to be told, I saw, leading me to write Grass, Soil, Hope: A Journey through Carbon Country, which makes the case that if we can draw increasing amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere and store it safely in the soil we can go a long way toward solving many of the challenges that now confront us.

There wasn’t enough space in Grass, Soil, Hope for many of the hopeful stories of regenerative practices that I had discovered along the way. What to do with all these wonderful solutions? After giving it some thought and consulting with my colleagues at the Quivira Coalition, I decided to begin writing them up as short case studies — ultimately resulting in this book: Two Percent Solutions for the Planet.

The goal of this book is to present informative snapshots of regenerative practices in a format that can be widely read and shared. It is not a comprehensive accounting by any means. I picked 50 topics that I consider to be a diverse representation of the regenerative world. There are other solutions already at work, and new ones are being developed even as you read this. I encourage you to seek them out. In the meantime, I hope this book will help you connect the dots between these diverse, pragmatic, and hopeful practices.

Here’s an example – a fibershed:
Of all the human needs we strive to make sustainable, the one we consistently overlook is the one closest to our skin—our clothes. 


Image above: Diagram of Soil to Soil cycle within a fibershed. From original article.

It’s an oversight we need to address, because almost everything we wear is drenched in fossil fuels, including the synthetic fibers that make up the majority of the raw material in clothes and the dyes that make them colorful.

So, if behaving sustainably means procuring our food from a local foodshed and our water from a nearby watershed, why don’t we try to procure what we wear from a local “fibershed”?

The quick answer is that we can’t, because those locally made clothes don’t exist. Not yet, anyway. However, Rebecca Burgess, executive director of the California-based Fibershed, and her partners are on it.

If they have their way, someday we will be able to buy clothes made locally from natural fibers created by sustainable grazing and farming practices and spun in nearby mills powered by renewable energy, all part of a robust, low-carbon, climate-friendly regional economy.

And that’s just the beginning! Burgess envisions these fibersheds as the foundation for an international system of textile supply chains, designed to regenerate the natural systems on which they depend while creating a vibrant and lasting textile culture.

If that sounds utopian, well, consider the alternative: our current industrial system for producing clothes. Take water pollution, for example.

According to the World Bank, textile manufacturing is the second largest source of freshwater pollution in the world (principally from dyeing) and accounts for 20 percent of all water contamination.

Synthetic fibers, which make their way to the sea via sewer lines from industrial laundry operations, are a huge source of pollution in the world’s oceans.

Those are just two of the environmental costs. Don’t forget the low wages, terrible working conditions, and human rights abuses that are pervasive in the garment industry, including persistent slavery and child labor. The toll can be deadly.

The collapse of a textile factory in Bangladesh in 2013 (despite warnings) killed 1,200 workers and injured more than 2,500 in the deadliest garment-manufacturing incident in history.

Burgess is quick to point out that the clothing industry is aware of these issues and that some larger corporations have begun to adopt eco-friendly practices, including the use of organic natural fibers.

However, the goal of Fibershed is to go way beyond correcting deficiencies in the current system and create instead a radically new model, one inspired by time-honored traditions from around the planet.

The roots of the project go back to 2009, when Burgess decided to create and wear a prototype wardrobe made from fibers, dyes, and labor sourced within a 150-mile radius of San Francisco.

To accomplish this goal, she pulled together a team of innovative agriculturalists and artisans to build the wardrobe by hand (because the manufacturing equipment had been lost decades ago).

The team worked toward four specific objectives: produce no toxic dye waste; use no pesticides, herbicides, or genetically modified organisms; significantly reduce the carbon footprint of the wardrobe in comparison to conventionally produced clothes; and incubate a regional community of artisans and farmers that would collaborate and grow in number over time.

The prototype demonstration was a success on all levels, sparking widespread interest not only in the word fibershed (which Burgess coined) but in the concept behind it as well.

 To push the concept forward, in 2011 Burgess founded the Fibershed Marketplace to explore the possibility of creating a cooperative to help fiber farmers and artisans stay in business together.

Then in 2012, she founded the nonprofit Fibershed in order to educate the public, including policymakers and entrepreneurs, on the benefits of producing local clothes using regenerative practices.

Call it “thinking like a fibershed!”

Which raises a question: How is a fibershed defined exactly?

According to Fibershed’s website a fibershed is “a geographical region that provides the basic resources required for a human’s first form of shelter (aka clothing).”

However, don’t get it confused with a watershed, warns Burgess, because a fibershed must necessarily cross multiple topographic boundaries to work ecologically and economically. Right now, that means stretching the definition of “local” way out—at least until sustainable fiber production takes off.

Another way to define a fibershed is to describe what’s in one. The map (below) presents an idealized vision. It includes a solar-powered wool mill; a greywater dye garden; grazing sheep; industrial hemp, flax and nettle cultivation; small-scale cotton-spinning equipment; a greenhouse; children visiting the field where their jeans are grown; a recycling mill; rooftop gardens for food, fiber, and dye plants; sewing pods; a knitting frame; and weaving studios.

It’s a utopian vision that’s very much grounded in reality.

For example, over three million pounds of wool are produced in California every year—more than anywhere else in the nation—of which 99 percent is shipped out of state, mostly to China. Much of this wool is wear-next-to-the-skin quality, which means that the raw material for the establishment of numerous fibersheds is already at hand. In fact, artisanal fiber operations have sprung to life in at least eighteen communities around the state since 2012, selling largely to upper-end markets. It’s small, Burgess says, but it’s a start.

A key component of the Fibershed’s work is its soil-to-soil concept, which aims to help ranchers and farmers build topsoil through a compost-application process that sequesters carbon dioxide on their land while reducing the product’s carbon footprint. [graph] “A typical wool garment produced overseas has a net carbon footprint of 33 kilograms in CO2 equivalents,” said Burgess. “The Fibershed approach reduces that and can, in fact, sequester nearly 38 kilograms in CO2 equivalents per garment.”

It’s all bundled together in an idea called the California Wool Mill Project, which pulls together a broad array of regenerative solutions.

The summary from the Project’s feasibility study (available at http://www.fibershed.com), which was conducted to assess the potentials of producing cloth in a vertically integrated supply chain using 100 percent California-grown wool fiber, states that the goal of the Project is to create a technical road map for an ecologically sensitive closed-loop mill design utilizing renewable energy, full water recycling, and composting systems.

Furthermore, the products from the mill were analyzed and shown to have a high potential for net-carbon benefit.

“The suggested model outlines the potential for a multi-stakeholder coop that would close the financial loop between profits and the producer community,” wrote the authors, “furthering the positive economic impact for our ranching and farming communities.”

In other words, we all live in a fibershed—we just don’t know it yet!
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Sneaking in GMO Bananas

SUBHEAD: Attempt to allow the testing of GMO bananas in Hawaii on the agenda of a meeting of the Dept of Agriculture.

By Shannon Rudolph on 24 October 2015 in Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2015/10/sneaking-in-gmo-bananas.html)


Image above: GMO Banana Poster by Babes Against Biotech. Provided by Shannon Rudolph.

Attempt to allow the testing of Genetically Modified (GM) bananas in Hawaii on the agenda of a meeting of the Hawaii Dept of Agriculture (DOA) without proper public notice.

Are you ready to say goodbye to organic bananas? Submit opposing testimony via email to the Hawaii Board of the Department of Agriculture NOW AND insist they cancel this illegal meeting scheduled for October 27th and #STOPGMOBANANAS!

ACTION:
Testify to remove this agenda item from discussion at the October 27th meeting here:

It is best to send testimony to the Hawaii Board of Ag. TONIGHT!
HDOA.board.testimony@hawaii.go CC: Hawaii Attorney General, Doug Chin hawaiiag@hawaii.gov
BCC
: BABtestimony@gmail.com when you submit from here on out.
  •  Insist they cancel the illegal meeting scheduled for this Tues. (10/27)   
  • Testimony needs to be submitted ASAP and ideally at least 24 hours prior to the meeting.
Testimony needs to be submitted ASAP and ideally at least 24 hours prior to the meeting.

CONTACT:
By Shannon Rudolph at shannonkona@gmail.com



FROM SHAKA MOVEMENT
This request for your action is the most important thing you can do since casting your vote one year ago.

This month, our government has broken the law and is trying to sneak GMO Bananas into our state for testing without appropriately informing the public as prescribed by law so as not to give the public a chance to give their opinion on the matter.

THE TALKING POINTS:

FAILING TO PUBLICLY NOTICE AGENDA: (Notify the public)
  • This meeting was not publicly noticed on the website of the Hawaii Dept of Agriculture (HDOA) 6 days prior, and is in violation of the Sunshine Law.
  • This agenda includes an administrative rule change, which was not properly noticed 30 days prior on the Lt. Governor's website, as required by law.
  • This meeting is a clear violation of the Sunshine Laws and must be canceled, rescheduled and properly noticed as required by law.
We are asking ALL HAWAII RESIDENTS and the entire planet of banana lovers to flood the HDOA with testimony in opposition to the GMO banana permit request, and insist that this meeting be canceled, as it was not publicly noticed in accordance with the law and is therefore, illegal.

DOUBLE ACTION ALERT:

1. EMAIL: Submit opposing testimony via email to the Hawaii DOA NOW.
a) We insist they cancel this illegal meeting scheduled for October 27th
b) We oppose Agenda Item C.1., the GMO banana permit.
c) Politely but firmly insist the meeting be canceled because it violated public notice requirements.
Remember, your email will become public information so please keep it professional as to reflect well on each other.

2. SOCIAL: Use all your electronics to specifically recruit friends, family, farmers, scientists, nutritionists, chefs and inspire everyone good you know who loves bananas, to take action NOW!
Share this post or make your own ASAP using the hashtag #SaveBananas (and if you're like BAB -‪#‎ThisShitIsBananas)

OAHU RESIDENTS - 10/27 9AM Honolulu: Plan to be there to testify or show support if this sketchy meeting is not canceled (now that we busted it open, all the‪ #‎gmoheads will probably be there) Plant Quarantine Conference Room 1849 Auiki Street Honolulu, Hawaii 96819

Illegal Agenda Link: http://hdoa.hawaii.gov/meetings-reports/
Request to:
(1) Allow the Importation of Genetically Modified Tissue-Cultured Banana Plants, (Musa spp.) (cv. Williams), by Permit, for Greenhouse and Field Research on Resistance to Banana Bunchy Top Virus, by the University of Hawaii at Manoa; and

(2) Establish Permit Conditions for the Importation of Genetically Modified Tissue-Cultured Banana Plants, (Musa spp.) (cv. Williams), by Permit, for Greenhouse and Field Research on Resistance to Banana Bunchy Top Virus, by the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

HOW TO SUBMIT EMAIL TESTIMONY:

Sample Subject: Cancel 10/27 BOA Meeting & Oppose GE Banana Permit
Body: Use the above talking points and add some text to it.
We unfortunately don't trust the integrity of our government agencies to do the right thing any more, and want to document the public testimony submitted.

-NON-RESIDENTS: CC info@HawaiiTourismAuthority.org
Let the Hawaii Tourism Authority know whether or not you would like to spend money visiting a place where thousands of outdoor genetic engineering field tests like GMO bananas, and agrochemical experimentation is occurring at record levels worldwide.


CONCERNS ABOUT THE OPEN-FIELD TESTING OF GMO BANANAS IN HAWAII
by Hector Valenzuela, Oct. 22, 2015
Dept. of Plant & Environmental Protection Sciences, CTAHR, UH-Manoa

GMO BANANA FIELD TESTS IN HAWAII:
· Even though banana is propagated asexually, extensive contamination is likely to occur in the state though mechanical means (people sharing propagating materials-- called suckers or keikis-- with friends, or neighbors.)

· GMO Rainbow papaya shows that UH and GMO papaya farmers have been incapable to contain GMOs within the boundary of their farms resulting in the widespread contamination and genetic pollution of non-GMO areas thoughout the state.

· Research needs to be conducted to determine potential health, environmental, economic, and social impacts from the release of a GMO banana variety in Hawaii.

· According to previous statements made by the only Crop Disease Epidemiologist in the state, alternative management practices are available to manage most or all diseases affecting horticultural crops in Hawaii.

· Little research has been conducted by UH to find alternative ecologically-based, low input, practices to manage the bunchy top virus in Hawaii.

HAWAII GMO BANANA BACKGROUND:
* For about the past 25 years the University of Hawaii has been working on a research project to develop GMO bananas with resistance to the bunchy top virus. UH has received over $1.5 million in research funding from the state and federal government to develop a GMO banana variety.

* Recently UH has made a request to import into the state, GMO “Williams” bananas developed by tissue culture, for further “greenhouse and field research” evaluations. Even though bananas are propagated asexually, via off-shoots that are called suckers or keikis, extensive GMO contamination is likely to occur in both non-GMO farms and home-gardens, through the simple hand-to-hand exchange of planting materials.

* The experience with the GMO Rainbow Papaya has shown that the University of Hawaii and that the Papaya Industry have been incapable to contain the presence of the GMO genetic constructs within the boundaries of their farms, resulting in extensive genetic pollution throughout the state.

* According to previous statements made by the only Crop Disease Epidemiologist in the state, alternative management practices are available to manage most or all diseases affecting horticultural crops in Hawaii. However, very little or no research has been conducted to identify viable alternative management practices for the control of the bunchy top virus in Hawaii.

LET'S DO THIS!

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Permaculture, Climate & Survival

 SUBHEAD: From 15th Annual International Permaculture Conference in London, September 9th, 2015.

By Alex Smith on 19 October 2015 for Eco Shock Radio -
(http://www.ecoshock.info/2015/10/permaculture-climate-survival.html)


Image above: An example of a Hale Akua permaculture farm. From (http://www.healthfarmsinternational.com/permaculture/).

If you don't know what permaculture is when we start, you should by the end of these intensive media features.

DAVID HOLMGREN
David Holmgren talks via Skype at the 2015 International Permaculture Conference.


Video above: Introduction by David Holmgren via video-conference. From (https://youtu.be/K9uU31tx1yg). 9 minutes.

ALBERT BATES
"Cool Talk" by Albert Bates from The Farm in Tennessee. Albert interviews Transition Towns founder Rob Hopkins. Australian permaculturalist Rosemary Morrow tells us Western permies are the minority, compared to East Asia, India, Africa, and the Pacific Islands.

If you don't know what permaculture is when we start, you will by the end of this intensive radio feature.

Download or listen to this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

Or listen right now on Soundcloud! (https://soundcloud.com/radioecoshock/permaculture-climate-survival)

Albert Bates is the author of books like "The Biochar Solution: Carbon Farming and Climate Change" and "The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook: Recipes for Changing Times". He is the host of "The Great Change" blog at peaksurfer.blogspot.ca.

But that just touches the surface. Formerly an environmental lawyer, Bates is one of the long-time residents of the Tennessee intentional community "The Farm". That's where so many great alternative ideas and low-tech solutions are created. We last had Albert on Radio Ecoshock for an interview on January 29th, 2014. Find the blog for that show here. Or you can download or listen to that previous interview here.

This time around, Albert contacted me with some great suggestions for a couple of programs on his passion, permaculture. There is a huge long video of a day-long series of talks on YouTube (links at the bottom of this post), from the 15th Annual International Permaculture Convergence held in London on September 19th. Actually there were official presentations, by most of the leading names in permaculture, but also workshops, and meet-ups of all kinds. I'll be playing you a couple of the best talks.

Even better, Albert arranged to interview some hard-to-find permaculture folks, specifically for Radio Ecoshock. You'll hear him talk with Transition Town co-founder Rob Hopkins this week, and with more internationally known permaculture leaders next week.

Here is Albert Bates' own presentation in London (19 minutes). He calls it "cool talk" and he explains why "cool" works better than something like "carbon sequestration". It's all in our tribal memes. Anyway, you'll hear about "cool food" and other cool products - including biochar paint that can actually clean the air in your room, and cows that don't need antibiotics.

Here's the big, big news in my opinion. You know that almost everything we do creates carbon emissions, as we burn fossil fuels. Bates says there is a different way to burn... almost anything - and not create greenhouse gases. In fact, the "pyrolysis" method of burning (can be done in a cheap camp stove even) - grabs and stores carbon instead of releasing it. The "bio char" remainders can be used in many products, fed to cows, or just dumped in the ground - where it will hold on to the carbon for up to 1,000 years.

That means we could create a society where almost everything we do LOWERS the carbon in the atmosphere. The test workshops for that society are the "eco-villages" which Albert and other permaculturalists are building in many countries. Bates has a big carbon negative settlement in the works, in an undisclosed location, working with a national government.

It's possible we could lower carbon in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million, or even lower. There is a way. That's big. Huge.

So listen to this 19 minute talk from Albert, in CD Quality or Lo-Fi.

ROB HOPKINS

Next Albert interviews Transition Towns founder Rob Hopkins for Radio Ecoshock. Rob Hopkins is the co-founder of the original Transition Town in Totnes, England, and central to the spread of these low-carbon, more self-reliant communities world-wide. I think there are transition towns in up to 100 countries now.

Albert is also a realist. Things look dark right now. There is a possibility of petro-collapse, as oil and gas dwindle and become uneconomical to get out of the ground. A "ponzi-collapse" is also lurking around the corner. The international trade and monetary system is being kept alive by swindles and money printing. It could collapse at any time. Of course, climate disruption is already upon us, and getting worse.

So Bates asks Rob Hopkins, and again his other guests next week, do they still have hope, and if so, why? I think Hopkins gives a good answer, to help all of us.

Listen to or download this 13 minute interview of Rob Hopkins in CD Quality or Lo-Fi. And don't forget these interview links in the Radio Ecoshock blog are permanent. Go ahead and share them on Facebook, Tweet about them, or share them however you can. Even years later, these links will work, and these interviews will be important for many people.

ROSEMARY MORROW
We wrap with another speech from the latest International Permaculture Convergence in London England last September. Rosemary Morrow started learning about permaculture in Australia in the early 1980's. She's founded branches in Cambodia, Vietnam, and many other places. This speech was recorded at the 15th Annual International Permaculture Convergence in London, September 9th, 2015.

If you are looking for inspiration, when things look bleak and impossible, this is the talk for you. People who have nothing, living in a war zone, or worse, have improved their lives and survival using permaculture. If they can do it, you can do it, says Rosemary.

Plus, nobody needs to wait for a university education in permaculture. Learn what you can, get a little training if you can, watch some YouTube videos, and start trying. You can only improve the planet. I've lightly edited this talk for radio. Listen to or download this speech by Rosemary Morrow in CD Quality or Lo-Fi.

Follow Rosemary Morrow on Facebook here. Her two best-known books are "Earth User's Guide to Permaculture" (2nd Edition, 2010) and "Earth User's Guide to Teaching Permaculture" (2014).


Video above: Day Two of 15th Annual International Permaculture Convergence in London. From (https://youtu.be/ZcDqlS_YEsw). 9 hours.

You can watch the whole 9 hours of Day Two of the Convergence on YouTube here. Or find a listing of various videos from this Convergence here.

My thanks to Albert Bates for his talk, interview, and guidance in assembling this program. We'll have more to come next week. I'm Alex. Help support Radio Ecoshock is you can. Thank you for tuning in.

See also:
Permaculture Part 1 - Growing Zones

Part 1 of a 6 part. Design Guidelines. Overview of zones.


Permaculture Part 2 - Multiple Functions

Part 2 of a 6 part. Each element has multiple functions.

Permaculture Part 3 - Relative Location

Part 3 of a 6. Saving time and energy with context.


Permaculture Part 4 - Problems & Solutions

Part 4 of a 6. Trading disadvantage for advantage.


Permaculture Part 5 - Design Diversity
http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2012/05/permaculture-design-diversity.html
Part 5 of a 6 part. Mix as many differing plants as possible.


Permaculture Part 6 - Use of Space

Part 6 of a 6 part. Stacking plants vertically for strength.
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New movie rating announced

SUBHEAD: MPAA adds category "O" for "Original" to warn audiences of films not based on existing works. 

By Staff on 20 October 2015 for The Onion -
(http://www.theonion.com/article/mpaa-adds-new-rating-warn-audiences-films-not-base-51651)


Image above: Screen presentation of the new "Original" category rating is not meant as censorship. From original article.

In an effort to provide moviegoers with the information they need to determine which films are appropriate for them to see, the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) announced Tuesday the addition of a new rating to alert audiences of movies that are not based on existing works.

According to MPAA officials, the new “O,” or “Original,” designation will inform viewers that a particular film contains characters with whom they are unfamiliar, previously unseen settings, and novel plots.

The rating will also reportedly serve as a warning of the potentially disorienting effects associated with having to remember characters’ names for as many as two hours and the discomfort that can occur when one is forced to keep track of narrative arcs for an entire film.

“We recognize how distressing it can be when viewers go into a film and suddenly find themselves confronted with jarring scenes containing a protagonist they’ve never encountered before, which is precisely why we created this rating,” said Joan Graves, head of the MPAA’s ratings board, who said the new category was added in part due to the thousands of complaints the organization has received from moviegoers who were upset they weren’t given advance notice that they’d have to make sense of the scenarios unfolding onscreen.

“It’s important that today’s movie fans are aware upon entering the theater that none of what they will see has been adapted from a well-known comic book, television series, novel, video game, historical event, previous movie, or theme park ride.”

“Ultimately, it will be up to the consumer’s discretion as to whether a film is suitable for themselves and their family, but the O rating will explicitly caution people that they will have to pay attention during the movie and follow the storyline on their own,” Graves added.

Though sources said films requiring the new rating are comparatively rare, a spate of high-profile movies over the past several years that do not stem from any previously existing source material—including The Kids Are All Right, Her, WALL-E, Birdman, and Nebraska, among others—have left many viewers angered and perplexed.

Citing test audiences they have observed, MPAA officials said that many moviegoers spent the entirety of such films in a state of distress, waiting for the moment when the Incredible Hulk, Katniss Everdeen, Wolverine, or another recognizable character from an established franchise would appear onscreen and clarify the meaning and direction of the film.

“I never would have gone to see Sicario if I knew it was going to be so unbearable,” said filmgoer Mark Kemmer of Cleveland, referring to the recently released crime thriller set against the violent backdrop of the contemporary Mexican drug trade that, under the MPAA’s guidelines, would receive the new rating. “It was pretty much unwatchable.

It seemed like in nearly every scene I had to figure out who the people were and where the story was going. And the whole movie was like that!”
“What a waste of money,” he added.

Others reported being viscerally repulsed by movies they attended that were not based on media that originated several decades or generations earlier, saying they had become so upset by what they had seen that they had trouble even sitting through the films.



Image above: Still from Pixar animation "Inside Out". From (http://www.theverge.com/2015/6/17/8790177/inside-out-movie-interview-pixar-pete-docter-jonas-rivera).

“How does this trash even get made?” said Katherine Hubbard, a mother of three from Rockford, IL, who, after buying tickets for the Pixar film Inside Out, was incensed that her children had been exposed to original storytelling. “Within the first minute, some little girl character my kids have never seen or heard of walks onscreen, and then we immediately have to learn her whole backstory and how she navigates the world?

 I marched us all right out of that theater after about 10 minutes.”

While audiences have reportedly been receptive to the new rating, directors and distributors have already decried it as severely damaging in regard to box-office revenues and the number of venues that will carry their films. However, the MPAA was adamant that the new classification should not be interpreted as censorship.

“The O rating isn’t meant to be a punishment or a moral judgment of any kind,” Graves said. “It’s simply a value-neutral designation intended to protect consumers, ensuring that they are fully informed about a movie and are able to make their own decisions about how much artistic and narrative originality they are comfortable seeing.”

“If filmmakers want to avoid the rating and appeal to a wider audience, all they have to do is throw in a superhero or a hobbit or some other licensed property,” Graves added.


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Flowing toward Abundance

SUBHEAD: Build up appropriate stocks where needed, but be aware that it’s flows that generate those stocks.

By Toby Hemenway on 21 October 2015 for TobyHemenway.com -
(http://tobyhemenway.com/1234-flowing-toward-abundance/)


Image above: Grove of eucalyptus trees on the Berkley campus of the University of California. From (http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/17/eucalyptus-fuel-for-fire/).

Over the last year or so, a neighbor has stocked up eight or ten piles of firewood in his yard, probably fifteen or twenty cords. What’s he going to do with it all? The house has a wood stove, but the family mostly uses the furnace, and burns wood only occasionally to get that cozy, fire-heated feel. It’s going to take them a decade or more to go through all that wood. Some of it is split and stacked, while much of it is strewn over a substantial chunk of their yard.

The wood comes from another neighbor’s multi-acre eucalyptus grove. Some of the trees are huge—three or more feet in diameter, a hundred feet tall. The landowner, Lyn, can pull out seven or eight properly chosen big trees each year and still replace all that biomass in the next year’s growth. It strikes me as a sustainable yield.

Several neighbors rely on her for their winter wood; the lot pumps out a good fifteen cords a year, and in our mild climate, you can heat a 2000-square-foot house using only wood by burning about a cord and a half.

The point of my little tale is this: My neighbor with the giant woodpile is thinking that the most secure source of wood is the store of it in his yard. But—to put it in systems language—that’s focusing on stocks over flows.

We tend to do that in this culture. However, the real wood storage is the woodlot in Lyn’s yard: the standing, growing trees, getting bigger each year, healthy and enlarging rather than rotting and getting punky on the ground.

Sure, it’s a good idea to keep two years of firewood on hard, which would be about three or four cords. But twenty cords? That’s a ten or fifteen year supply here. It’s a mammoth task to split and stack it all (only a fifth or so has been split in the last year, and who can blame them?); it should be covered or it will start to rot, and that’s a huge area to cover; and even with the best of care, by year five it will be breaking down and thus won’t heat as well.

Meanwhile, Lyn’s woodlot is cranking out fifteen cords of beautiful firewood every year. But we don’t tend to see flows as sources of abundance as easily as we see it in stocks—in piles of inert, stored, easily measured stuff.

One reason for this is our culture’s focus on things rather than on processes, relationships, and dynamics. Another is that it’s easy to trust that by squirreling away a fat store of something in a safe place, we will be able to use it.

But trusting that, say, some seeds freshly planted will truly feed you in a few months time, or that those trees will produce just as much wood next year as this—that takes a leap of faith. Especially in our culture, inculcated with scarcity and fear, we have more faith what we can see in front of us right now than in some gradual process that could, in our doubt-ridden imaginations, go awry at any moment.

Those of you who have seen my pieces on humanity’s transition from foraging to agriculture know that I believe that hunter-gatherers were secure in the knowledge that the wild world would always provide sustenance of some kind—that nature could be trusted—while agricultural people have lost that, and are taught that only our own hard work and piling up a storable surplus can guarantee survival.

Fortunately, with the emergence in the last few decades of whole-systems studies and related fields such as permaculture and holistic management, we’re seeing that flows are the real key to abundance. It’s flow, dynamic and well-channeled, that keeps any system running.

Yes, stocks and storages are an important part of any system, but any dynamic system, whether a garden, an ecosystem, a business, or a community, is kept healthy—is kept in existence at all—by the flows cycling within it, into it, and out of it. Lyn’s living woodlot—its increasing kilocalories of stored sunlight on the hoof—is the real source of abundance, not my neighbor’s slowly deteriorating pile.

I’ve seen what happens when people make the transition from a fear-based need to hoard to an abundance model of flow.

Through the lens I so often look through, of horticulture versus agriculture (a culture of gardeners tending the wild’s diversity rather than farmers sweating in domesticated monocultures), early humanity’s two million years of trusting nature is a more powerful legacy than a mere ten-thousand years of control-freaks breaking nature to the plow, and I’m hoping we are returning to that.

An encouraging example of this is the evolution of the prepper movement, a subset of the survivalists who have made full readiness for socio-economic collapse a major part of their lives.

The term “prepper” arose in the 1990s and the steady drumbeat of accumulating acute and chronic crises of 9/11; climate change; energy descent; Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy, and other natural disasters; the financial collapse of 2008, and the feeble official responses to most of these, have driven prepper numbers to new highs.

But many preppers are moving away from the “build a bunker and fill it with freeze-dried food and ammo” mentality. I’ve had some rollicking conversations about this with the lively Jack Spirko, moderator of The Survival Podcast, probably the most popular prepper website. Jack began his journey in classic survivalist mode—bunker, ammo, and all. Then he was introduced to permaculture, and a series of lightbulbs turned on.

The constant flow from an exuberant garden, he realized, was better long-term insurance than barrels in a basement, and less likely to attract or be understood by those potential “apocalypse zombie” raiders.

A community of like-minded men and women working together on food- and resource-yielding projects could produce much more than one man’s garden, and a large, cohesive group of tool-using (and, yes, given Jack’s world, some of them gun-toting) people would be a far less tempting target than a lone guy in a bunker full of food. And lots more fun.

The preppers are moving from a mindset of stocks to one of flows.

We need both stocks and flows. But our culture has focused largely on stocks, and when we do focus on flows we often go too far the other way, creating non-resilient systems that have been stripped of their buffers in the interest of economics, such as just-in-time production and so-called “lean businesses.” Stocks do have their role, especially as buffers, but it’s the flows that keep a system running.

So, sure, build up appropriate stocks where needed. But be aware that it’s flows that generate those stocks, and where flows are healthy, your piles of squirreled-away stuff can be a lot smaller. Nourish those flows. That way, we can move away from fear-based hoarding to a flow-based abundance model—the one that nature uses.

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A narrowing nuclear path

SUBHEAD: Japan may be pushed out of a global growth curve leading to a low-carbon world based on renewable energy.

By Simon Pollock on 20 October 2015 for Our World -
(http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japans-narrowing-nuclear-path-to-a-low-carbon-future)


Image above: A partnership of Japanese companies will soon begin building a 92-megawatt (MW) solar power plant on a former golf course stretching across Kanoya City and Osaki Town in Kagoshima Prefecture. The project will become one of the largest solar installations in Japan. From original article.

In the wake of Japan’s 2011 earthquake and nuclear disaster, some are questioning the government’s conviction that nuclear power offers an indispensable path to a lower carbon future. There are indications that the government’s intentions to lower emissions levels by bringing back nuclear power are overly optimistic.

Japan’s current government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, appears hopeful it has already set the country back on track to the widespread use of nuclear energy. This is evident from the government’s stated intention to go from zero nuclear energy after the Fukushima disaster to a projected 20 to 22 percent of national electricity supply by 2030.

The country has only recently (one in August, one last week) reopened the first two nuclear reactors since all were taken offline due to safety concerns following the 2011 disaster. Both are reactors at Sendai nuclear power plant, owned and operated by the KyÅ«shÅ« Electric Power Company, in Kagoshima Prefecture.

Bloomberg, however, forecasts that anti-nuclear sentiment in Japan means the 20 to 22 percent target for nuclear power by 2030 is unlikely, with a 10 percent proportion more plausible.

The business news service points out the government’s goal would require 13 reactors being extended beyond their 40-year lifetime. Meanwhile, another recent news report indicates that legal challenges and concerns about nuclear safety mean that only seven of 42 operable nuclear reactors are likely to be turned back on during the next few years.

Yasushi Ninomiya, a senior researcher with Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics, agrees that the percentage of nuclear power in Japan is unlikely to exceed 10 percent due to the government’s overestimation of national energy demand based on a yearly average of 1.7 percent gross domestic product growth.

“Japan’s declining population and the shift of its manufacturing industry overseas means this figure is likely to be considerably lower,” Ninomiya told me recently in a personal communication.

Nuclear–coal equation outdated?

Some question whether it is time for Japan to move beyond the nuclear–coal equation to escape the climate conundrum (which I described in a previous article) stemming from the growing use of coal and subsequent rise of emissions since the country’s shutdown of all its nuclear reactors after the earthquake.
Ninomiya said far more renewable energy could power the country beyond the current target of it providing 20 to 22 percent of national electricity production by 2030. This would be possible by further liberalizing the national power market and developing new industries.

Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, an analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Tokyo office, told me that a shortage of enthusiasm for more ambitious renewable energy targets was the result of a general tendency within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to support coal and nuclear. He was quick to add, however, that any “climate conservative” streak within the LDP had not translated into politicians publicly repudiating the science of global warming, as has been the case in some Western countries.

“The LDP’s support for coal in particular is based on an ideological belief that Japanese technology is very good and that its high-tech, low-emission coal combustion represents the most affordable technology of energy production,” said Izadi-Najafabadi.

“This follows a general belief among many Japanese politicians that their country is a tiny, resource-poor island that must make decisions focused on national security and economics. But, ironically, Japan’s economic security would actually be advantaged in the long run by a move to more renewables.”

It is evident, though, that not all Japanese politicians support nuclear energy. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which was in power at the time of the Fukushima disaster, has stated nuclear power could be totally phased out by the 2030s.

Former prime ministers Natao Kan (DPJ) and Junichiro Koizumi have also criticized the current government’s proposed path back to nuclear power. Koizumi, in office from 2001 to 2006, campaigned on an anti-nuclear platform while supporting another former prime minister — Morihiro Hosokawa — in his ultimately unsuccessful bid to become Tokyo governor last year.

Izadi-Najafabadi said Japan will eventually follow Europe and the United States in promoting the escalated use of renewables, but this is likely to take time and will probably require Japan’s industrial leaders, rather than its politicians, to show the way. Japanese industry is actually further developed in supporting advances in renewable technology than many outside the country realize.

While China has stolen the limelight in terms of its huge move during recent years into the renewable energy market, it is less known that Japan represented the world’s second biggest solar photovoltaic (PV) market in 2013. It accounted for 10 percent of the global total, compared to 13 percent for China. This entailed an impressive doubling of PV capacity in Japan from the previous year.

Japan’s technical edge

The Climate Group recently reported how cutting-edge Japanese solar technology was behind the recent opening of one of the world’s largest floating solar panel plants in central Hyogo prefecture.

Japanese ceramics company Kyocera, which has expanded globally, developed the water-based technology to get around Japan’s lack of land space and to help provide the necessary cooling for a solar plant’s operations.

Some believe Japan possesses the technical edge to make inroads into the renewable energy market.

Though perhaps not in the rapidly aggressive fashion by which it made gains in the automotive industry in the 1980s, leading it to overtake the United States as number one automobile maker.

Llewelyn Hughes, an Australian National University lecturer and Japanese market consultant, told me that because the cost of production in China is much lower, Japanese companies are not doing as well as they used to in the solar market.

“This picture, however, can be misleading as some renewable production in China actually represents outsourcing from Japan,” said Hughes.

“There is still a strong potential for Japan to apply its technological prowess and engineering expertise in renewable technology. Japan could become a lead renewables technology market, and then export this technology to developing countries to help them leapfrog over the more carbon-intensive steps adopted by the developed countries.”

Hughes pointed to a collaborative arrangement between Japan’s Panasonic and Tesla, a firm based in California perhaps best known for its electric cars amongst its array of high-tech products.

As part of the collaboration, Panasonic’s innovation is helping to drive progress in battery storage, the “holy grail of renewables”, said Hughes. There are also signs afoot that Panasonic may be about make a more concerted push into the global solar market by supplying batteries for homes, beginning in Europe.

Japanese companies’ collaboration with firms in China and the US to pave innovative paths to low-carbon development — based on high-tech cooperation and market force competition — calls into question the ongoing focus of state-based efforts to reduce climate change.

While diplomats pore over obscure but highly politicized texts to broach an international agreement, companies are using the flow of ideas across national boundaries to find entrepreneurial ways to tackle climate change.

Individual breakthroughs on new and innovative ways to seek profits across borders may help generate step changes leading to a low-carbon world, as has been the case with the Steve Jobs-led burgeoning communication revolution of tablets and smartphones.

It is likely, however, that the positioning of nation states will continue to dominate news headlines about climate change — and this is an area where Japan’s climate reputation will likely continue to suffer.

Japan’s increased use of coal brought by the sudden removal of nuclear power from its energy mix has made it far more difficult for the country to achieve domestic reduction targets considered credible by other nations.

The sudden, tragic and disruptive nature of the 2011 earthquake helps to garner sympathy for Japan’s challenges in reducing its domestic emissions. Such considerations are likely, however, to be quickly forgotten when considering Japan’s ongoing support of coal mining and combustion in other countries.

Japan funds overseas coal use

A report by a consortium of environmental groups released in June found that Japan is now the planet’s top public financier of overseas coal plants, technology and mining.

The report found that Japan provided more than US$20 billion to coal projects in other countries between 2007 and 2014 — roughly a quarter of total international support for coal-fired power. During the same period, according to the report, Japan contributed about US$5 billion to coal mining projects around the world.

Japan’s decision to continue funding coal mining and combustion overseas sits uncomfortably with the World Bank’s announcement in 2013 that it would stop financing coal projects, except in rare cases.

Japan’s support for overseas coal plants in Indonesia (US$1 billion in loans) and India and Bangladesh (US$630 million) as climate finance loans has raised the most ire amongst environmentalists. The Japanese government has portrayed its support in pragmatic terms, arguing that some countries can only afford to use coal for their energy generation.

In this view, Japan’s financial assistance means developing countries can build high-tech coal combustion plants that cause less pollution than those that would be built without such help. Japanese support “is a very practical and realistic and effective way to reduce carbon dioxide”, the Associated Press newswire quoted Takako Ito, a foreign ministry spokeswoman, as saying.

This issue has set off deliberations within the United Nations (UN) Green Climate Fund, the main international body channelling aid funds to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. The UN body’s current stance — where the use of climate finance to support coal plants is not explicitly banned — is likened by Karen Orenstein, a campaigner for Friends of the Earth US, to a “torture convention that doesn’t forbid torture”.

Japan’s support for advancing coal in developing countries is likely to remain a weak spot in Japan’s diplomatic armor, opening it up to continuing overseas criticism. The power of the market, though, may ultimately play the biggest role in weaning Japan from its current support for coal projects in developing countries.

As rising powers such as China and Brazil move to wind down their coal use, new coal plants in Japan are likely to face increased business risks.

Conversely, current low demand for coal may allow Japanese utilities to seek lower prices. However, in the longer term, Japan’s current investments in coal at home and abroad could well prove to be a losing bet.

Predicting future global trends is rarely straightforward, but judging by the perennial air pollution and high percentage of emissions caused by coal, it is unlikely this fossil fuel will be the energy source of choice for current and rising powers.

The government’s faith in nuclear power is understandable considering it has served the country well prior to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster. Fears about nuclear energy are, however, unlikely to dissipate quickly — especially in the only country that has borne the brunt of nuclear weapons.

It seems then that the government’s current bet in putting renewables just below coal, and on a par with nuclear energy, threatens to push Japan out of a global growth curve leading to a low-carbon world based on renewable energy.

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Retrotopia: A Question of Subsidies

SUBHEAD: We’re short on many resources, but  there’s no shortage people willing to put in a day’s work for a day's wage.

By John Michael Greer on 21 October 2015 for The Archdruid Report -
(http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2015/10/retrotopia-question-of-subsidies.html)


Image above: Streetcar operating in Savanna, Georgia. From (http://www.budgettravel.com/print/36310/).

The phone rang at 8 am sharp, a shrill mechanical sound that made me wonder if there was actually a bell inside the thing. I put down the Toledo Blade and got it on the second ring. “Hello?”

“Mr. Carr? This is Melanie Berger. I’ve got—well, not exactly good news, but it could be worse.”

I laughed. “Okay, I’ll bite. What’s up?”

“We’ve managed to get everyone to sit down and work out a compromise, but the President’s got to be involved in that. With any luck this whole business will be out of the way by this afternoon, and he’ll be able to meet with you this evening, if that’s acceptable.”

“That’ll be fine,” I said.

“Good. In the meantime, we thought you might want to make some of the visits we discussed with your boss earlier. If that works for you—”

“It does.”

“Can you handle being shown around by an intern? He’s a bit of a wooly lamb, but well-informed.” I indicated that that would be fine, and she went on. “His name’s Michael Finch. I can have him meet you at the Capitol Hotel lobby whenever you like.”

“Would half an hour from now be too soon?”

“Not at all. I’ll let him know.”

We said the usual polite things, and I hung up. Twenty-five minutes later I was down in the lobby, and right on time a young man in a trenchcoat and a fedora came through the doors. I could see why Berger had called him a wooly lamb; he had blond curly hair and the kind of permanently startled expression you find most often in interns, ingenues, and axe murderers. He looked around blankly even though I was standing in plain sight.

“Mr. Finch?” I said, crossing the lobby toward him. “I’m Peter Carr.”

His expression went even more startled than usual for a moment, and then he grinned. “Pleased to meet you, Mr. Carr. You surprised me—I was expecting to see someone dressed in that plastic stuff.”

“I’m not fond of being stared at,” I said with a shrug.

He nodded, as though that explained everything. “Ms. Berger told me you wanted to visit some of our industrial plants and the Toledo stock market. Unless you have something already lined up, we can head down to the Mikkelson factory first and go from there. We could take a cab if you like, or just catch the streetcar—the Green line goes within a block of the plant. Whatever you like.”

I considered that, decided that a good close look at Lakeland public transit was in order. “Let’s catch the streetcar.”

“Sure thing.”

We left the lobby, and I followed Finch’s lead along the sidewalk to the right. The morning was crisp and bright, with an edge of frost, and plenty of people were walking to work. A fair number of horsedrawn cabs rolled by, along with a very few automobiles. I thought about that as we walked. Toledo’s tier had a base date of 1950, or so the barber told me the day before, but I didn’t think that cars were anything like so scarce on American streets in that year.

We turned right and came to the streetcar stop, where a dozen people were already waiting. I turned to Finch. “The Mikkelson factory. What do they make?”

For answer he pointed up the street. Two blocks up, the front end of a streetcar was coming into sight as it rounded the corner. “Rolling stock for streetcar lines. We’ve got three big streetcar manufacturers in the Republic, but Mikkelson’s the biggest. The Toledo system runs their cars exclusively.”

The streetcar finished the turn, sped up, and rolled to a stop in front of us. Strictly speaking, I suppose I should say “streetcars,” since there were four cars linked together, all of them painted forest green and yellow with brass trim.

We lined up with the others, climbed aboard when our turn came, and Finch pushed a couple of bills down into the fare box and got a couple of paper slips—“day passes,” he explained—from the conductor. There were still seats available, and I settled into the window seat as the conductor rang a bell, ding-di-ding-di-ding, and the streetcar hummed into motion.

It was an interesting ride, in an odd way. I travel a lot, like most people in my line of work, and I’ve ridden top-of-the-line automated light rail systems in New Beijing and Brasilia.

I could tell at a glance that the streetcar I was on cost a small fraction of the money that went into those high-end systems, but the ride was just as comfortable and nearly as fast. There were two employees of the streetcar system on board, a driver and a conductor, and I wondered how much of the labor cost was offset by the lower price of the hardware.

The streetscape rolled past. We got out of the retail district near my hotel and into a residential district, with a mix of apartment buildings and row houses and a scattering of other buildings: an elementary school with a playground outside, a public library, two churches, a couple of other religious buildings of various kinds, and then a big square building with a symbol above the door I recognized at once. I turned to Finch. “I wondered whether there were Atheist Assemblies here.”

“Oh, yes. Are you an Atheist, Mr. Carr?”

I didn’t see any reason to temporize. “Yes.”

“Wonderful! So am I. If you’re free this coming Sunday, you’d be more than welcome at the Capitol Assembly—that’s this one here.” He motioned at the building we were passing.

“I’ll certainly consider it,” I said, and he beamed.

By the time we got to the factory the streetcar was crammed to the bursting point, mostly with people who looked like office staff, and the sidewalks were full of men and women heading toward the factory gates for the day shift.

We got off with almost everyone else, and I followed Finch down another sidewalk to the front entrance of the business office, a sturdy-looking two-story structure with MIKKELSON MANUFACTURING in big letters above the second story windows and in gold paint on the glass of the front door.

The receptionist was already on duty, and picked up a telephone to announce us. A few minutes later a middle-aged woman in a dark suit came out to shake our hands. “Mr. Carr, pleased to meet you. I’m Elaine Chu. So you’d like to see our factory?”

A few minutes later we’d exchanged our hats, coats and jackets for safety helmets and loose coveralls of tough gray cloth. “Just under half the streetcars manufactured in the Lakeland Republic are made right here,” Chu explained as we walked down a long corridor. “We’ve also got plants in Louisville and Rockford, but those supply the railroad industry—Rockford makes locomotives and Louisville’s our plant for rolling stock. Every Mikkelson streetcar comes from this plant.”

We passed through double doors onto the shop floor. I was expecting a roar of machine noise, but there weren’t a lot of machines, just workers in the same gray coveralls we were wearing, picking up what looked like hand tools and getting to work.

There were streetcar tracks running down the middle of the shop floor, and I watched as a team of workers bolted two wheels, an axle, and a gear together and sent it rolling down the track to the next team. Metal parts clanged and clattered, voices echoed off the metal girders that held up the roof, and now and then some part got pulled from the line and chucked into a big cart on its own set of tracks.

“Quality control,” Chu said. “Each team checks each part or assembly as it comes down the line, and anything that’s not up to spec gets pulled and either disassembled or recycled. That’s one of the reasons we have so large a share of the market. Our streetcars average twenty per cent less downtime for repairs than anybody else’s.”

We followed the wheel assemblies down the shop floor from the team that assembled them into four-wheel bogies, through the teams that built a chassis with electric motors and wiring atop each pair of bogies, to the point where the body was hauled in on a heavily-built overhead suspension track and bolted onto the chassis.

From there we went back up another long corridor to the assembly line that built the bodies. It was all a hum of activity, with dozens of tools I didn’t recognize at all, but every part of it was powered by human muscle and worked by human hands.

I think we’d been there for about two hours when we got to the end of the line, and watched a brand new Mikkelson streetcar get hooked up to overhead power lines, tested one last time, and driven away on tracks to the siding where it would be loaded aboard a train and shipped to its destination—Sault Ste. Marie, Chu explained, which was expanding its streetcar system now that the borders were open and trade with Upper Canada had the local economy booming. “So that’s the line from beginning to end,” she said. “If you’d like to come this way?”

We went back into the business office, shed helmets and coveralls, and proceeded to her office. “I’m sure you have plenty of questions,” she said.

“One in particular,” I replied. “The lack of automation. Nearly everything you do with human labor gets done in other industrial countries by machines. I’m curious as to how that works—economically as well as practically—and whether it’s a matter of government mandates or of something else.”

I gathered from her expression that she was used to the question. “Do you have a background in business, Mr. Carr?”

I nodded, and she went on.

“In the Atlantic Republic, if I understand correctly—and please let me know if I’m wrong—when a company spends money to buy machines, those count as assets; that’s how they appear on the books, and there are tax benefits from depreciation and so on. When a company spends the same money to do the same task by hiring employees, they don’t count as assets, and you don’t get any of the same benefits. Is that correct?”

I nodded again.

“On the other hand, if a company hires employees, it has to spend much more than the cost of wages or salaries. It has to pay into the public social security system, public health care, unemployment, and so on and so forth, for each person it hires. If the company buys machines instead, it doesn’t have to pay any of those things for each machine. Nor is there any kind of tax to cover the cost to society of replacing the jobs that went away because of automation, or to pay for any increased generating capacity the electrical grid might need to power the machines, or what have you. Is that also correct?”

“Essentially, yes,” I said.

“So, in other words, the tax codes subsidize automation and penalize employment. You probably were taught in business school that automation is more economical than hiring people. Did anyone mention all the ways that public policy contributes to making one more economical than the other?”

“No,” I admitted. “I suppose you do things differently here.”

“Very much so,” she said with a crisp nod. “To begin with, if we hire somebody to do a job, the only cost to Mikkelson Manufacturing is the wages or salary, and any money we put into training counts as a credit against other taxes, since that helps give society in general a better trained work force. Social security, health care, the rest of it, all of that comes out of other taxes—it’s not funded by penalizing employers for hiring people.”

“And if you automate?”

“Then the costs really start piling up. First off, there’s a tax on automation to pay the cost to society of coping with an increase in unemployment. Then there’s the cost of machinery, which is considerable, and then there’s the natural-resource taxes—if it comes out of the ground or goes into the air or water, it’s taxed, and not lightly, either. Then there’s the price of energy.

Electricity’s not cheap here; the Lakeland Republic has only a modest supply of renewable energy, all things considered, and it hasn’t got any fossil fuels to speak of, so the only kind of energy that’s cheap is the kind that comes from muscles.” She shook her head. “If we tried to automate our assembly line, the additional costs would break us. It’s a competitive business, and the other two big firms would eat us alive.”

“I suppose you can’t just import manufactured products from abroad.”

“No, the natural-resource taxes apply no matter what the point of origin is. You may have noticed that there aren’t a lot of cars on the streets here.”

“I did notice that,” I said.

“Fossil fuels here don’t get the government subsidies here they get almost everywhere else, and there’s the natural-resource taxes on top of that, for the fuel that’s burnt and the air that’s polluted. You can have a car if you want one, but you’ll pay plenty for the privilege, and you’ll pay even more for the fuel if you want to drive it.”

I nodded; it all made a weird sort of sense, especially when I thought back to some of the other things I’d heard earlier. “So nobody’s technology gets a subsidy,” I said.

“Exactly. Here in the Lakeland Republic, we’re short on quite a few resources, but one thing there’s no shortage of is people who are willing to put in an honest day’s work for an honest wage. So we use the resource we’ve got in abundance, rather than becoming dependent on things we don’t have.”

“And would have to import from abroad.”

“Exactly. As I’m sure you’re aware, Mr. Carr, that involves considerable risks.”

I wondered if she had any idea just how acutely I was aware of those. I put a bland expression on my face and nodded. “So I’ve heard,” I said.

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Retrotopia Part 1 - Dawn Train from Pittsburgh 8/27/15
Ea O Ka Aina: Retrotopia Part 2 - View from a Moving Window 9/2/15
Ea O Ka Aina: Retrotopia Part 3 - A Cab Ride in Toledo 9/9/15
Ea O Ka Aina: Retrotopia Part 4 - Public Utilities, Private Good 9/23/15
Ea O Ka Aina: Retrotopia Part 5 - A Change of Habit 9/30/15
Ea O Ka Aina: Retrotopia Part 6 - Scent of Ink on Paper 10/14/15

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Why a Speed Limit on the Internet?

SUBHEAD: Because our appetite for internet volume makes it impossible to run it on renewable energy.

By Kris De Decker on 19 October 2015 for Low Tech Magazine -
(http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2015/10/can-the-internet-run-on-renewable-energy.html)


Image above: High-end tele-presence system for video conferencing. Source: Wikipedia Commons. Courtesy of Tandberg Cooperation. From original article.

In terms of energy conservation, the leaps made in energy efficiency by the infrastructure and devices we use to access the internet have allowed many online activities to be viewed as more sustainable than offline.

On the internet, however, advances in energy efficiency have a reverse effect: as the network becomes more energy efficient, its total energy use increases. This trend can only be stopped when we limit the demand for digital communication.

Although it's a strategy that we apply elsewhere, for instance, by encouraging people to eat less meat, or to lower the thermostat of the heating system, limiting demand remains controversial because it goes against the belief in technological progress. It's even more controversial when applied to the internet, in part because few people make the connection between data and energy.

How much energy does the internet consume? Due to the complexity of the network and its fast-changing nature, nobody really knows. Estimates for the internet's total electricity use vary by an order of magnitude. 

 One reason for the discrepancy between results is that many researchers only investigate a part of the infrastructure that we call The Internet.

In recent years, the focus has been mostly on the energy use of data centers, which host the computers (the "servers") that store all information online. However, in comparison, more electricity is used by the combination of end-use devices (the "clients", such as desktops, laptops and smartphones), the network infrastructure (which transmits digital information between servers and clients), and the manufacturing process of servers, end-use devices, and networking devices. [1]

A second factor that explains the large differences in results is timing. Because the internet infrastructure grows and evolves so fast, results concerning its energy use are only applicable to the year under study. 

Finally, as with all scientific studies, researcher's models, methods and assumptions as a base for their calculations vary, and are sometimes biased due to beliefs or conflicts of interest. 

For example, it won't suprise anyone that an investigation of the internet's energy use by the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity sees much higher electricity consumption than a report written by the information and communication technology industry itself. [2,3]

Eight Billion Pedallers
 Keeping all this in mind, we selected what seems to be the most recent, complete, honest and transparant report of the internet's total footprint. It concludes that the global communications network consumed 1,815 TWh of electricity in 2012. [4] This corresponds to 8% of global electricity production in the same year (22,740 TWh). [5,6]


If we were to try to power the (2012) internet with pedal-powered generators, each producing 70 watt of electric power, we would need 8.2 billion people pedalling in three shifts of eight hours for 365 days per year. (Electricity consumption of end-use devices is included in these numbers, so the pedallers can use their smartphones or laptops while on the job). 

Solar or wind power are not much of a solution, either: 1,815 TWh equals three times the electricity supplied by all wind and solar energy plants in 2012, worldwide. [7]

These researchers estimate that by 2017, the electricity use of the internet will rise to between 2,547 TWh (expected growth scenario) and 3,422 TWh (worst case scenario). If the worst-case scenario materializes, internet-related energy use will almost double in just 5 years time. 

Note that further improvements in energy efficiency are already included in these results. Without advances in efficiency, the internet's energy use would double every two years, following the increase in data traffic. [8]

Increasing Energy Consumption per User
Importantly, the increasing energy consumption of the internet is not so much due to a growing amount of people using the network, as one would assume. 

Rather, it's caused by a growing energy consumption per internet user. The network's data traffic rises much faster than the number of internet users (45% versus 6-7% annually). [9

 There's two main reasons for this. The first is the evolution towards portable computing devices and wireless internet access. The second is the increasing bit rate of the accessed content, mainly caused by the digitalization of TV and the popularity of video streaming.
The increasing energy consumption of the internet is not so much due to a growing amount of people using the network, as one would assume. Rather, it's caused by a growing energy consumption per internet user.
In recent years we have seen a trend towards portable alternatives for the desktop computer: first with the laptop, then the tablet and the smartphone. The latter is on its way to 100% adoption: in rich countries, 84% of the population now uses a smartphone. [9,4]

These devices consume significantly less electricity than desktop computers, both during operation and manufacture, which has given them an aura of sustainability. However, they have other effects that more than off-set this advantage.

First of all, smartphones move much of the computational effort (and thus the energy use) from the end-device to the data center: the rapid adoption of smartphones is coupled with the equally rapid growth in cloud-based computer services, which allow users to overcome the memory capacity and processing power limitations of mobile devices. [4,11]

Because the data that is to be processed, and the resulting outcome must be transmitted from the end-use device to the data center and back again, the energy use of the network infrastructure also increases.

 High-Speed Wireless Internet
Robbing Peter to pay Paul can improve the total efficiency of some computational tasks and thus reduce total energy use, because servers in datacenters are managed more energy efficiently than our end-use devices. 

However, this advantage surely doesn't hold for smartphones that connect wirelessly to the internet using 3G or 4G broadband. Energy use in the network is highly dependent on the local access technology: the "last mile" that connects the user to the backbone of the internet.

A wired connection (DSL, cable, fibre) is the most energy efficient method to access the network.

Wireless access through WiFi increases the energy use, but only slightly. [12,13]


Image above: Wireless traffic through 3G uses 15 times more energy than WiFi, while 4G consumes 23 times more. From original article.

However, if wireless access is made through a cellular network tower, energy use soars. Wireless traffic through 3G uses 15 times more energy than WiFi, while 4G consumes 23 times more. [14] [See also 4, 15]

Desktop computers were (and are) usually connected to the internet via a wired link, but laptops, tablets and smartphones are wirelessly connected, either through WiFi or via a cellular network.

Growth in mobile data traffic has been somewhat restricted to WiFi "offloading": users restrict data connectivity on the 3G interface due to significantly higher costs and lower network performance. [4]

Instead, they connect to WiFi networks that have become increasingly available. With the advance of 4G networks, the speed advantage of WiFi disappears: 4G has comparable or improved network throughput compared to WiFi. [14]

Most network operators are in the process of large-scale rollouts of 4G networks. The number of global 4G connections more than doubled from 200 million at the end of 2013 to 490 million at the end of 2014, and is forecast  to reach 875 million by the end of 2015. [11,16,17]

More Time Online
 The combination of portable computing devices and wireless internet access also increases the time we spend online. [11] This trend did not start with smartphones. 

Laptops were expected to lower the energy consumption of the internet, but they raised it because people took advantage of the laptop's convenience and portability to be online far more often. "It was only with the laptop that the computer entered the living room". [18]

Smartphones are the next step in this evolution. They allow data to be consumed in many places in and outside the home, alongside more conventional computing. [19]

For example, field research has revealed that smartphones are intensively used to fill 'dead time' -- small pockets of time not focused on one specific activity and often perceived as unproductive time: waiting, commuting, being bored, coffee breaks, or "social situations that are not stimulating enough". 

Smartphones also have become to play an important bedtime role, being called upon last thing at night and first thing in the morning. [19]
We are using our increasingly energy efficient devices for longer hours as we send more and more data over a worldwide infrastructure.
Noting these trends, it is clear that not every smartphone is a substitute for a laptop or desktop computer. Both are used alongside each other and even simulatenously. 

In conclusion, thanks to smartphones and wireless internet, we are now connected anywhere and anytime, using our increasingly energy efficient devices for longer hours as we send more and more data over a worldwide infrastructure. [19,20]

The result is more energy use, from the mobile devices themselves, and -- much more important -- in the datacenters and in the network infrastructure. Also, let's not forget that calling someone using a smartphone costs more energy than callling someone using a dumbphone.

Increasing Bit Rates: Music & Video
A second key driver behind the growing energy consumption per internet user is the increasing bit rate of content. The internet started as a text-medium, but images, music and video have become just as important.

Downloading a text page requires very little energy. To give an example, all the text on this blog, some 100 articles, can be packed into less than 9 megabytes (MB) of data. Compare this to a single high-resolution image, which easily gets to 3 MB, or a standard quality 8-minute YouTube video, which ticks off at 30 MB -- three times the data required for all the words on this blog.

Because energy use rises with every bit of data, it matters a lot what we're doing online. And as it turns out, we are increasingly using the network for content with high bit rates, especially video. In 2012, video traffic was 57% of all internet traffic (excluding video exchanged through P2P-networks). It's expected to increase to 69% in 2017. [21]

If video and wireless internet access are the key drivers behind the increasing energy use of the internet, then of course wireless video is the worst offender. And it's exactly that share of traffic that's growing the fastest. 

According to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index, mobile video traffic will grow to 72% of total mobile data traffic in 2019:  [11]
"When device capabilities are combined with faster, higher bandwith, it leads to wide adoption of video applications that contribute to increased data traffic over the network. As mobile network connection speeds increase, the average bit rate of content accessed through the mobile network will increase. High-definition video will be more prevalent, and the proportion of streamed content, as compared to side-loaded content, is also expected to increase. The shift towards on-demand video will affect mobile networks as much as it will affect fixed networks".
Power consumption is not only influenced by data rates but also by the type of service provided. For applications such as email, web browsing, and video and audio downloads, short delays are acceptable. 

However, for real-time services -- video-conferencing, and audio and video streaming -- delay cannot be tolerated. This requires a more performant network, and thus more energy use.

Does the Internet Save Energy?
The growing energy use of the internet is often explained away with the argument that the network saves more energy than it consumes. This is attributed to substitution effects in which online services replace other more energy-intensive activities. [13]

Examples are video conferencing, which is supposed to be an alternative for the airplane or the car, or the downloading or streaming of digital media, which is supposed to be an alternative for manufacturing and shipping DVDs, CDs, books, magazines or newspapers.

Some examples. A 2011 study concluded that "by replacing one in four plane trips with video-conferencing, we save about as much power as the entire internet consumes", while a 2014 study found that "video-conferencing takes at most 7% of the energy of an in-person meeting". [22,23]

However, if video-conferencing is compared to a plane trip.
  • What's the distance traveled? 
  • Is the plane full or not?
  • In what year was it built? 
  • On the other hand, how long does the video-conference take? 
  • Does it happen over a wired or a wireless access network? 
  • Do you use a laptop or a high-end telepresence system?
A video-conference can also replace a phone call or an email, and in these cases energy use goes up, not down.

Concerning digital media, a 2014 study concludes that shifting all DVD viewing to video streaming in the US would represent a savings equivalent to the primary energy used to meet the electricity demand of nearly 200,000 US household per year. [24]
A 2010 study found that streaming a movie consumed 30 to 78% of the energy of traditional DVD rental networks (where a DVD is sent over the mail to the customer who has to send it back later). [25]
Because the estimates for the energy intensity of the internet vary by four orders of magnitude, it's easy to engineer the end result you want.
There are some fundamental problems with these claims. First of all, the results are heavily influenced by how you calculate the energy use of the internet. If we look at the energy use per bit of data transported (the "energy intensity" of the internet), results vary from 0,00064 to 136 kilowatt-hour per Gigabyte (kWh/GB), a difference of four orders of magnitude. [13,19].

The researchers who made this observation conclude that "whether and to what extent it is more energy efficient to download a movie rather than buying a DVD, or more sustainable to meet via video-conferencing instead of traveling to a face-to-face meeting are questions that cannot be satisfyingly answered with such diverging estimates of the substitute's impact." [13]

To make matters worse, researchers have to make a variety of additional assumptions that can have a major impact on the end result.

Time and Distance

All these questions can be answered in such a way that you can engineer the end result you want. That's why it's better to focus on the mechanisms that favour the energy efficiency of online and offline services, what scientists call a "sensitivity analysis". 

To be fair, most researchers perform such an analysis, but its results usually don't make it into the introduction of the paper, let alone into the accompanying press release.

One important difference between online and offline services is the role of time. Online, energy use increases with the time of the activity. If you read two articles instead of one article on a digital news site, you consume more energy. 

But if you buy a newspaper, the energy use is independent of the number of articles you read. A newspaper could even be read by two people so that energy use per person is halved.

Next to time there is the factor of distance. Offline, the energy use increases with the distance, because transportation of a person or product makes up the largest part of total offline energy consumption. 

This is not the case with online activities, where distance has little or no effect on energy consumption.

A sensitivity analysis generates very different conclusions from the ones that are usually presented. 

For example: streaming a music album over the internet 27 times can use more energy than the manufacturing and transportation of its CD equivalent. [26]

Or, reading a digital newspaper on a desktop PC uses more energy than reading a paper version from the moment the reading length exceeds one hour and a quarter, taking the view that the newspaper is read by one person. [27]

Or, in the earlier mentioned study about the energy advantage of video-conferencing, reducing the international participant's travel distance from 5,000 to 333 km makes traveling in person more energy efficient than video-conferencing when a high-end telepresence system is used. Similarly, if the online conference takes not 5 but 75 hours, it's more energy efficient to fly 5,000 km. [23]

Rebound Effects

The energy efficiency advantage of video-conferencing looks quite convincing, because 75-hour meetings are not very common. 

However, we still have to discuss what is the most important problem with studies that claim energy efficiency advantages for online services: they usually don't take into account rebound effects. 

A rebound effect refers to the situation in which the positive effect of technologies with improved efficiency levels is offset by systematic factors or user behaviour.

For example, new technologies rarely replace existing ones outright, but instead are used in conjunction with one another, thereby negating the proposed energy savings. [28]

Not every video conference call is a substitute for physical travel. It can also replace a phone call or an email, and in these cases energy use goes up, not down. [23]

Likewise, not every streamed video or music album is a substitute for a physical DVD or CD. The convenience of streaming and the advance of portable end-use devices with wireless access leads to more video viewing and music listening hours [24], at the expense of other activities which could include reading, observing one's environment, or engaging in a conversation.

Because the network infrastructure of the internet is becoming more energy efficient every year -- the energy use per bit of data transported continues to decrease -- it's often stated that online activities will become more energy efficient over time, compared to offline activities. [3]

However, as we have seen, the bit rate of digital content online is also increasing.

This is not only due to the increasing popularity of video applications, but also because of the increasing bit rate of the videos themselves. 

Consequently, future efficiency improvements in the network infrastructure will bring higher quality movies and video-conferencing, not energy savings. According to several studies, bit rates increase faster than energy efficiency so that green gains of online alternatives are decreasing. [23,24,25]

Efficiency Drives Energy Use
The rebound effect is often presented as a controversial issue, something that may or may not exist. But at least when it comes to computing and the internet, it's an ironclad law. 

The rebound effect manifests itself undoubtedly in the fact that the energy intensity of the internet (energy used per unit of information sent) is decreasing while total energy use of the internet is increasing.

It's also obvious in the evolution of microprocessors. The electricity use in fabricating a microprocessor has fallen from 0.028 kWh per MHz in 1995 to 0.001 kWh per MHz in 2006 as a result of improvements in manufacturing processes. [29]

However, this has not caused a corresponding reduction of energy use in microprocessors. Increased functionality -- faster microprocessors -- has cancelled out the efficiency gains per MHz. In fact, this rebound effect has become known as Moore's Law, which drives progress in computing. [28,29]

In other words, while energy efficiency is almost universally presented as a solution for the growing energy use of the internet, it's actually the cause of it. 

When computers were still based on vacuum tubes instead of transistors on a chip, the power used by one machine could be as high as 140 kilowatt.

Today's computers are at least a thousand times more energy efficient, but it's precisely because of this improved energy efficiency that they are now on everybody's desk and in everybody's pocket. 

Meanwhile, the combined energy use of all these more energy-efficient machines outperforms the combined energy use of all vacuum tube computers by several orders of magnitude.

Sufficiency
In conclusion, we see that the internet affects energy use on three levels. The primary level is the direct impact through the manufacturing, operation and disposal of all devices that make up the internet infrastructure: end-use devices, data centers, network and manufacturing.

On a second level, there are indirect effects on energy use due to the internet's power to change things, such as media consumption or physical travel, resulting in a decrease or increase of the energy use. 

On a third level, the internet shifts consumption patterns, brings technological and societal change, and contributes to economic growth. [28,29]

The higher system levels are vastly more important than the direct impacts, despite receiving very little attention. [29]
"[The internet] entails a progressive globalization of the economy that has thus far caused increasing transportation of material products and people...  The induction effect arising from the globalization of markets and distributed forms of production due to telecommunication networks clearly leads away from the path of sustainability... Finally, the information society also means acceleration of innovation processes, and thus ever faster devaluation of the existing by the new, whether hardware or software, technical products or human skills and knowledge." [28]
Nobody can deny that the internet can save energy in particular cases, but in general the overwhelming trend is towards ever-higher energy use. This trend will continue unabated if we don't act. 

There's no constraint on the bit rate of digital data. Blu-ray provides superior viewing experience, with data sizes ranging between 25 and 50 GB -- five to ten times the size of a HD video. With viewers watching 3D movies at home, we can imagine future movie sizes of 150 GB, while holographic movies go towards 1,000 GB. [25]

Nor is there any constraint on the bit rate of wireless internet connections. Engineers are already preparing the future launch of 5G, which will be faster than 4G but also use more energy. There's not even a constraint on the number of internet connections. 

The concept of the "internet of things" foresees that in the future all devices could be connected to the internet, a trend that's already happening. [4,11]

And let's not forget that for the moment only 40% of the global population has access to the internet.

In short, there are no limits to growth when it comes to the internet, except for the energy supply itself. This makes the internet rather unique. 

For example, while the rebound effect is also very obvious in cars, there are extra limits which impede their energy use from increasing unabated. Cars can't get larger or heavier ad infinitum, as that would require a new road and parking infrastructure. 

And cars can't increase their speed indefinitely, because we have imposed maximum speed limits for safety. The result is that the energy use of cars has more or less stabilized. You could argue that cars have achieved a status of "sufficiency":
"A system consuming some inputs from its environment can either increase consumption whenever it has the opportunity to do so, or keep its consumption within certain limits. In the latter case, the system is said to be in a state of sufficiency... A sufficient system can improve its outputs only by improving the efficiency of its internal process." [31]
The performance of cars has only increased within the limits of the energy efficiency progress of combustion engines. A similar effect can be seen in mobile computing devices, which have reached a state of sufficiency with regard to electricity consumption -- at least for the device itself. [31]

In smartphones, energy use is limited by a combination of battery constraints: energy density of the battery, acceptable weight of the battery, and required battery life. The consequence is that the per-device energy use is more or less stable. 

The performance of smartphones has only increased within the limits of the energy efficiency progress of computing (and to some extent the energy density progress of batteries). [31]

A Speed Limit for the Internet
 In contrast, the internet has very low sufficiency. On the internet, size and speed are not impractical or dangerous. Batteries limit the energy use of mobile computing devices, but not the energy use of all the other components of the network.

Consequently, the energy use of the internet can only stop growing when energy sources run out, unless we impose self-chosen limits, similar to those for cars or mobile computing devices. 

This may sound strange, but it's a strategy we also apply quite easily to thermal comfort (lower the thermostat, dress better) or transportation (take the bike, not the car).

Limiting the demand for data could happen in many ways, some of which are more practical than others. We could outlaw the use of video and turn the internet back into a text and image medium. We could limit the speed of wireless internet connections. We could allocate a specific energy budget to the internet. 

Or, we could raise energy prices, which would simultaneously affect the offline alternatives and thus level the playing field. The latter strategy is preferable because it leaves it to the market to decide which applications and devices will survive.
Setting a limit would not stop technological progress. Advances in energy efficiency will continue to give room for new devices and applications to appear.

Although none of these options may sound attractive, it's important to note that setting a limit would not stop technological progress. Advances in energy efficiency will continue to give room for new devices and applications to appear. However, innovation will need to happen within the limits of energy efficiency improvements, as is now the case with cars and mobile computing devices.

In other words: energy efficiency can be an important part of the solution if it is combined with sufficiency.

Limiting demand would also imply that some online activities move back to the off-line world -- streaming video is candidate number one. It's quite easy to imagine offline alternatives that give similar advantages for much less energy use, such as public libraries with ample DVD collections. 

Combined with measures that reduce car traffic, so that people could go to the library using bikes or public transportation, such a service would be both convenient and efficient.

Rather than replacing physical transportation by online services, we should fix the transport infrastructure.

In the next articles, we investigate the low-tech information networks that are being developed in poor countries. There, "sufficiency" is ingrained in society, most notably in the form of a non-existing or non-reliable energy infrastructure and limited purchasing power.

We also discuss the community networks that have sprung up in remote regions of rich countries, and the designs for shared networks in cities. These alternative networks provide much more energy efficient alternatives for digital communication in exchange for a different use of the internet.


Sources:
[1] Even the most complete studies about the internet's energy use do not take into account all components of the infrastructure. For example, the embodied energy of the energy plants which are used to power the internet is completely ignored. However, if you run a data center or cellular tower on solar energy, it's obvious that the energy it took to produce the solar panels should be included as well. The same goes for the batteries that store solar energy for use during the night or on cloudy days.
[2] "The cloud begins with coal: big data, big networks, big infrastructure, and big power" (PDF), Mark P. Mills, National Mining Association / American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, augustus 2013
[3] "SMARTer2030 -- ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges" (PDF), Global e-Sustainability Initiative, 2015
[4] "Emerging trends in electricity consumption for consumer ICT", Peter Corcoran, 2013
[5] "Key Electricity Trends" (PDF), IEA Statistics, 2015
[6] Of the total, 852 TWh was consumed by end-use devices, 352 TWh by networks, 281 TWh by data centers, and 330 TWh during the manufacturing stage.
[7] "Worldwide electricity production from renewable energy sources, edition 2013", Observ'ER
[8] The researchers also provide a "best case scenario" in which energy use increases only slightly.  However, this scenario is already superseded by reality. It supposes slow growth of wireless data traffic and digital TVs, but the opposite has happened, as Cisco Visual Networking Index [11] shows. Furthermore, the best-case-scenario supposes a year-on-year improvement in energy efficiency of 5% for most device categories and an annual improvement in efficiency of the core network of 15%. These figures are well above those of past years and thus not very likely to materialize. The expected growth scenario supposes wireless traffic to grow to 9% of total network electricity consumption, and digital TV to stabilize at 2.1 billion units. In this scenario, energy efficiency improvements for devices are limited to 2% per year, while energy efficiency in the core network is limited to 10% per year. In the worst case scenario, wireless traffic grows to 15% of total network electricity consumption, digital TV will keep growing, and improvements in energy efficiency are limited to 1-5% annually for devices and to 5% in the core network. [4]
[9] "Measuring the Information Society Report 2014" (PDF), International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 2014
[11] "Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019", CISCO, 2015.
[12] "Small network equipment key product criteria", Energy Star, retrieved September 2015.
[13] "The energy intensity of the internet: home and access networks" (PDF), Vlad Coroama, 2014
[14] "A close examination of performance and power characteristics of 4G LTE networks" (PDF), Junxian Huang, June 2012.
[15] "Energy consumption in mobile phones: a measurement study and implications for network applications" (PDF), Niranjan Balasubramanian, 2009
[16] "4G networks to cover more than a third of the global population this year, according to new GSMA intellligence data", GSMA Intelligence, 2015
[17] Network equipment manufacturer Cisco notes in its 2015 report that "as mobile network capacity improves and the number of multiple device users grow, operators are more likely to offer mobile broadband packages comparable in price and speed to those of fixed broadband." [11] If this becomes true, and a majority of internet users would routinely connect to the internet through 4G broadband, the energy use of the network infrastructure would more than double, assuming data traffic would remain the same. [4] That's because from an energy perspective, the access network is the greedy part of any service provider's network. The core network of optic cables is much more energy efficient. [4]
[18] "Are we sitting comfortably? Domestic imaginaries, laptop practices, and energy use". Justin Spinney, 2012
[19] "Demand in my pocket: mobile devices and the data connectivity marshalled in support of everyday practice" (PDF), Caolynne Lord, Lancaster University, april 2015
[20] "Towards a holistic view of the energy and environmental impacts of domestic media and IT", Oliver Bates et al., 2014
[21] "Cisco Visual Networking Index 2012-2017", Cisco, 2013
[22] "The energy and emergy of the internet" (PDF), Barath Raghavan and Justin Ma, 2011
[23] "Comparison of the energy, carbon and time costs of videoconferencing and in-person meetings", Dennis Ong, 2014
[24] "The energy and greenhouse-gas implications of internet video streaming in the united states", 2014
[25] "Shipping to streaming: is this shift green?", Anand Seetharam, 2010
[26] "MusicTank report focuses on environmental impact of streaming platforms", CMU, 2012
[27] "Screening environmental life cycle assessment of printed, web based and tablet e-paper newspaper", Second Edition, Asa Moberg et al, 2009
[28] "Information Technology and Sustainability: essays on the relationship between ICT and sustainable development", Lorenz M. Hilty, 2008
[29] "Environmental effects of informantion and communications technologies", Eric Williams, Nature, 2011
[30] "Computing Efficiency, Sufficiency, and Self-Sufficiency: A Model for Sustainability?" (PDF), Lorenz M. Hilty, 2015


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