Showing posts with label Computers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Computers. Show all posts

Stroboscopic Easter Eggs

SUBHEAD: As part of the celebration of spring we present these painted animated Easter egg designs.

By Rob Beschizza on 25 March 2018 for Boing Boing-
(https://boingboing.net/2018/03/25/mesmerising-stroboscopic-easte.html)


Image above: Eggbot inking a boiled egg with stroboscopic pattern on an Easter that appears animated by video frames. Still shot from video below.

"No computer graphics tricks were used in this video," writes Jiri Zemanek of Czech Technical University in Prague.
Various patterns are generated in MATLAB using mathematical equations similar to ones describing Spirograph (or harmonograph) and Phyllotaxis. The patterns are calculated in such a way that when rotated under a stroboscopic light of suitable frequency or when recorded by a camera, they start to animate. It is kind of zoetrope---early device for animation. Eggs were painted using EggBot (designed by Bruce Shapiro as open hardware and available as a kit from http://www.evilmadscientist.com/). To draw on eggs, we used standard permanent markers and an electro kistka with bee wax followed by dying. Eggs are rotated at a constant speed, special for each pattern, by a brushless motor.


Video above: "Eggstatic - Stroboscopic Pen Patterns for Easter Eggs". From (https://youtu.be/JfajQ4_hSN0)
aic paint".

Here's more: "This apparatus creates stroboscopic patterns on an egg covered in photochromic paint"


Video above: "Eggstatic 2 - Laser Drawing Stroboscopic Patterns on Eggs". From (https://youtu.be/rIgpqlrj-G0)

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World Logistic Center Warehouse

SUBHEAD: What was once orange groves is is becoming a 2,600 acre consumption machine polluting the land. 

By Emma Foehringer Mechant on 30 May 2017 for Grist-
(http://grist.org/justice/no-ones-breathing-easy-in-the-nations-new-megawarehouse-hub/)



Image above: Like the evolution of the Amazon "fulfillment centers" the World Logistic Center, by Highland Fairview, is evolving into 2,600 acre computer warehouse serviced by autonomous diesel trucks. Click to embiggen. From original article and (http://www.highlandfairview.com/wlc.html).

[IB Publisher's note: Not to worry. This phenomena will likely be a short lived one in the service of human beings. The economies of scale will be reversed as industrial collapse engulfs us, and we can go back to the land after looting these behemoths for scrap metal.]

Just a few decades ago, California’s Inland Empire billed itself as “the Orange Empire” for the citrus orchards that fueled its primary industry. Today, many of those groves are gone, and so is the nickname.

The landlocked region of 4 million people an hour east of Los Angeles now sprouts more enormous warehouses (a billion square feet of them) than fruit trees.

Forty percent of the nation’s consumer goods — iPhones, sneakers, and everything available from Amazon — spend time sitting on those warehouse shelves after coming off ships at nearby ports, awaiting delivery to stores and homes.

What was once a mostly rural region finds itself struggling with a high poverty rate and growing population. Residents are plagued by tremendous traffic and air pollution, which recently earned the region an “F” from the American Lung Association.

Those environmental and health concerns will get much worse, advocates say, if the city of Moreno Valley — a town of 200,000 located in the heart of the Inland Empire — builds the largest warehouse project anywhere in the country.

Tom Thornsley is a 60-year-old urban planner who moved to Moreno Valley in 1998, just as the rural-to-warehouse transformation was beginning.

He thought he had chosen wisely, settling in a gray, ranch-style home that sat near a wide-open space zoned for more homes, not warehouses. “I know better than to look at dirt and not check what it would be,” he says.

But after a developer proposed a project in 2012, city officials rezoned that dirt patch next to Thornsley’s house to make it home to one of the world’s largest warehouse complexes.
 
The World Logistics Center, planned by a company called Highland Fairview, would be the largest such facility in the country, covering 2,610 acres — the size of 700 football fields. It would be more than 25 times bigger than the largest warehouse in the United States, a 98-acre hangar operated in Washington by the airplane manufacturer Boeing.

As a planner, Thornsley doesn’t have a problem with industrial development. He’s worked on commercial buildings since 1989.

But the environmental costs of the World Logistics Center are too much for his community, he says, so he’s become a leader in the effort to stop it — an effort that might hinge on next month’s special city council election.


Moreno Valley residents voiced their opposition to the proposed World Logistics Center in May with this sign. The fields in the backgrounds are a portion of the WLC. Click to embiggen. Photo by Los Angeles Times. From (http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-0928-world-logistics-center-20150928-story.html).

The World Logistics Center, which is now known locally by the acronym “WLC,” has turned Moreno Valley politics into a bloodsport. Community organizers and environmental groups have fought — in both city hall and the courtroom — to protect residents from the pollution it would cause and save protected species like peregrine falcons and California golden eagles that live in the nearby San Jacinto Wildlife Area.

Once built, warehouses don’t pollute the way that factories and power plants do. But a project the size of the WLC would be a magnet for truck traffic, spewing exhaust on 69,000 estimated daily vehicle* trips in and out of the complex.

In a struggling region, though, the lure of jobs has proven difficult to overcome, despite the public health and quality of life concerns.

“That’s why people are pressing so hard now,” Thornsley says, “to get somebody elected who’s not going to be, in essence, another developer’s puppet.”

Southern California’s two ports are among the deepest on the West Coast, allowing massive ships to dock at Los Angeles and Long Beach.

More than $360 billion worth of goods from production centers in the Asian Pacific were offloaded there in 2014. Warehouses originally crowded around the ports, until Los Angeles could no longer contain the growth.

Demand for more space at cheaper rates pushed development farther east, and the Inland Empire became the hidden purgatory between production and consumption. Only the Philadelphia area currently has more warehouse space, but projects like the WLC would leave that East Coast hub in the dust. Over the past five years, the logistics industry has delivered a quarter of the new jobs in the region.

But the economic boom carries a heavy environmental toll: Diesel trucks zip along the Inland Empire’s roads, carrying cargo to customers and piping particulates into the air. Winds rushing in from the ocean blow added pollution from L.A. and Orange County, which accumulates in the basin bounded to the north and east by mountains.

That makes the Inland Empire one of the unhealthiest places to live in the country. Air pollution leads to higher risk of heart disease, asthma, bronchitis, cancer, and more.

The South Coast Air Basin — which encompasses parts of Orange, Riverside, San Bernadino, and Los Angeles counties — exceeds federal and state requirements for lead and small particulate matter, which can lodge in the lungs.

San Bernardino and Riverside counties, which make up the Inland Empire, ranked first and second, respectively, among the top 25 most ozone-polluted counties in the American Lung Association’s 2016 air quality report.

Low-income neighborhoods and communities of color bear the brunt of this pollution, because they’re often situated near freeways or become sites for warehouses. Moreno Valley’s population is 18 percent African-American and about 54 percent Latino.

In a community where nearly 20 percent of people live in poverty, it’s easy for a big developer to gain support for a project like the World Logistics Center — especially with the promise of 20,000 permanent jobs and $2.5 billion a year added to the local economy.

But the downside includes 14,000 added diesel truck trips per day and a 44 percent increase in the city’s yearly greenhouse gas emissions.

Many warehouse jobs are also low wage, temporary, and unsafe. The facilities rack up a plethora of safety violations, according to California health and safety inspectors, and workers report high levels of injury and illness.

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Why I have no plans for a computer

SUBHEAD: Thirty years ago he realized his first duty was to reduce his own consumption?

By Wendell Berry 21 September 1987 in BTconnect -
(http://home.btconnect.com/tipiglen/berrynot.html)


Image above: Wendel Berry, three decades after writing this article stands in front of his solar panels in Henry County, Kentucky.  From (http://huckleberryhans.wixsite.com/resonantliving/single-post/2017/03/06/Lenten-Day-6-Giving-up-Despair---Operation-Beauty).

[IB Publisher's note: This article was originally published in print by The New England Review and Bread Loaf Quarterly in the Fall of 1987 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/40241890?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents)] 

Like almost everybody else, I am hooked to the energy corporations, which I do not admire. I hope to become less hooked to them. In my work, I try to be as little hooked to them as possible. As a farmer, I do almost all of my work with horses. As a writer, I work with a pencil or a pen and a piece of paper.

My wife types my work on a Royal standard typewriter bought new in 1956 and as good now as it was then. As she types, she sees things that are wrong and marks them with small checks in the margins. She is my best critic because she is the one most familiar with my habitual errors and weaknesses. She also understands, sometimes better than I do, what ought to be said.

We have, I think, a literary cottage industry that works well and pleasantly. I do not see anything wrong with it.

A number of people, by now, have told me that I could greatly improve things by buying a computer. My answer is that I am not going to do it. I have several reasons, and they are good ones.

The first is the one I mentioned at the beginning. I would hate to think that my work as a writer could not be done without a direct dependence on strip-mined coal. How could I write conscientiously against the rape of nature if I were, in the act of writing, Implicated in the rape ? For the same reason, it matters to me that my writing is done in the daytime, without electric light.

I do not admire the computer manufacturers a great deal more than I admire the energy industries. I have seen their advertisements. attempting to seduce struggling or failing farmers into the belief that they can solve their problems by buying yet another piece of expensive equipment. I am familiar with their propaganda campaigns that have put computers into public schools in need of books.

That computers are expected to become as common as TV sets in "the future" does not impress me or matter to me. I do not own a TV set. I do not see that computers are bringing us one step nearer to anything that does matter to me: peace, economic justice, ecological health, political honesty, family and community stability, good work.

What would a computer cost me? More money, for one thing, than I can afford, and more than I wish to pay to people whom I do not admire. But the cost would not be just monetary. It is well understood that technological innovation always requires the discarding of the "old model"—the "old model" in this case being not just our old Royal standard. but my wife, my critic, closest reader, my fellow worker.

Thus (and I think this is typical of present-day technological innovation). what would be superseded would be not only something, but somebody. In order to be technologically up-to-date as a writer, I would have to sacrifice an association that I am dependent upon and that I treasure.

My final and perhaps mv best reason for not owning a computer is that I do not wish to fool myself. I disbelieve, and therefore strongly resent, the assertion that I or anybody else could write better or more easily with a computer than with a pencil.

I do not see why I should not be as scientific about this as the next fellow: when somebody has used a computer to write work that is demonstrably better than Dante's, and when this better is demonstrably attributable to the use of a computer, then I will speak of computer with a more respectful tone of voice, though I still will not buy one.

To make myself as plain as I can, I should give my standards for technological innovation in my own work. They are as follows:
  1. The new tool should be cheaper than the one it replaces.
  2. It should be at least as small in scale as the one it replaces.
  3. It should do work that is clearly and demonstrably better than the one it replaces.
  4. It should use less energy than the one it replaces.
  5. If possible, it should use some form of solar energy, such as that of the body.
  6. It should be repairable by a person of ordinary intelligence, provided that he or she has the necessary tools.
  7. It should be purchasable and repairable as near to home as possible.
  8. It should come from a small, privately owned shop or store that will take it back for maintenance and repair.
  9. It should not replace or disrupt anything good that already exists, and this includes family and community relationships.
After the foregoing essay, first published in the New England Review and Bread Loaf Quarterly, was reprinted in Harper's, the Harper's editors published the following letters in response and permitted me a reply. W.B.


LETTERS
Wendell Berry provides writers enslaved by the computer with a handy alternative: Wife—a low-tech energy-saving device. Drop a pile of handwritten notes on Wife and you get back a finished manuscript, edited while it was typed. What computer can do that? Wife meets all of Berry's uncompromising standards for technological innovation: she's cheap, repairable near home, and good for the family structure.

Best of all, Wife is politically correct because she breaks a writer's "direct dependence on strip-mined coal."

History teaches us that Wife can also be used to beat rugs and wash clothes by hand, thus eliminating the need for the vacuum cleaner and washing machine, two more nasty machines that threaten the act of writing.
Gordon Inkeles Miranda, Calif.



I have no quarrel with Berry because he prefers to write with pencil and paper; that is his choice. But he implies that I and others are somehow impure because we choose to write on a computer. I do not admire the energy corporations, either. Their shortcoming is not that they produce electricity but how they go about it. They are poorly managed because they are blind to long-term consequences. To solve this problem, wouldn't it make more sense to correct the precise error they are making rather than simply ignore their product ? I would be happy to join Berry in a protest against strip mining, but I intend to keep plugging this computer into the wall with a clear conscience.
James Rhoads Battle Creek, Mich.



I enjoyed reading Berry's declaration of intent never to buy a personal computer in the same way that I enjoy reading about the belief systems of unfamiliar tribal cultures. I tried to imagine a tool that would meet Berry's criteria for superiority To his old manual typewriter. The clear winner is the quill pen. It is cheaper, smaller, more energy-efficient, human-powered, easily repaired, and non-disruptive of existing relationships.

Berry also requires that this tool must be "clearly and demonstrably better" than the one it replaces. But surely we all recognize by now that "better" is in the mind of the beholder. To the quill pen aficionado, the benefits obtained from elegant calligraphy might well outweigh all others.

I have no particular desire to see Berry use a word processor; or he doesn't like computers, that's fine with me. However, I do object to his portrayal of this reluctance as a moral virtue. Many of us have found that computers can be an invaluable tool in the fight to protect our environment.

In addition to helping me write, my personal computer gives me access to up-to-the-minute reports on the workings of the EPA and the nuclear industry. I participate in electronic bulletin boards on which environmental activists discuss strategy and warn each other about urgent legislative issues.

Perhaps Berry feels that the Sierra Club should eschew modern printing technology which is highly wasteful of energy, in favor of having its members handcopy the club's magazines and other mailings each month ? 
Nathaniel S. Borenstein Pittsburgh, Pa.



The value of a computer to a writer is that it is a tool not for generating ideas but for typing and editing words. It is cheaper than a secretary (or a wife!) and arguably more fuel-efficient. And it enables spouses who are not inclined to provide free labor more time to concentrate on their own work.

We should support alternatives both to coal-generated electricity and to IBM-style technocracy. But I am reluctant to entertain alternatives that presuppose the traditional subservience of one class to another. Let the PCs come and the wives and servants go seek more meaningful work.
Toby Koosman Knoxville, Tenn.



Berry asks how he could write conscientiously against the rape of nature if in the act of writing on a computer he was implicated in the rape. I find it ironic that a writer who sees the underlying connectness of things would allow his diatribe against computers to be published in a magazine that carries ads for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, Marlboro, Phillips Petroleum, McDonnell Douglas, and yes, even Smith-Corona. If Berry rests comfortably at night, he must be using sleeping pills.

Bradley C. Johnson Grand Forks, N.D.



WENDELL BERRY REPLIES:
The foregoing letters surprised me with the intensity of the feelings they expressed. According to the writers' testimony, there is nothing wrong with their computers; they are utterly satisfied with them and all that they stand for. My correspondents are certain that I am wrong and that I am, moreover, on the losing side, a side already relegated to the dustbin of history. And yet they grow huffy and condescending over my tiny dissent. What are they so anxious about?

I can only conclude that I have scratched the skin of a technological fundamentalism that, like other fundamentalisms, wishes to monopolize a whole society and, therefore, cannot tolerate the smallest difference of opinion. At the slightest hint of a threat to their complacency, they repeat, like a chorus of toads, the notes sounded by their leaders in industry. The past was gloomy, drudgery-ridden, servile, meaningless, and slow.

The present, thanks only to purchasable products, is meaningful, bright, lively, centralized, and fast. The future, thanks only to more purchasable products, is going to be even better. Thus consumers become salesmen, and the world is made safer for corporations.

I am also surprised by the meanness with which two of these writers refer to my wife. In order to imply that I am a tyrant, they suggest by both direct statement and innuendo that she is subservient, characterless, and stupid—a mere "device" easily forced to provide meaningless "free labor."

I understand that it is impossible to make an adequate public defense of one's private life, and so l will only point out that there are a number of kinder possibilities that my critics have disdained to imagine: that my wife may do this work because she wants to and likes to; that she may find some use and some meaning in it; that she may not work for nothing.

 These gentlemen obviously think themselves feminists of the most correct and principled sort, and yet they do not hesitate to stereotype and insult, on the basis of one fact, a woman they do not know. They are audacious and irresponsible gossips .

In his letter, Bradley C. Johnson rushes past the possibility of sense in what I said in my essay by implying that I am or ought to be a fanatic. That I am a person of this century and am implicated in many practices that I regret is fully acknowledged at the beginning of my essay. I did not say that I proposed to end forthwith all my involvement in harmful technology, for I do not know how to do that.

I said merely that I want to limit such involvement, and to a certain extent I do know how to do that. If some technology does damage to the world—as two of the above letters seem to agree that it does—then why is it not reasonable, and indeed moral, to try to limit one's use of that technology? Of course, I think that I am right to do this.

I would not think so, obviously, if I agreed with Nathaniel S. Borenstein that " 'better' is in the mind of the beholder." But if he truly believes this, I do not see why he bothers with his personal computer's "up-to-the-minute reports on the workings of the EPA and the nuclear industry" or why he wishes to be warned about "urgent legislative issues."

According to his system, the "better" in a bureaucratic, industrial, or legislative mind is as good as the "better" in his. His mind apparently is being subverted by an objective standard of some sort, and he had better look out.

Borenstein does not say what he does after his computer has drummed him awake. I assume from his letter that he must send donations to conservation organizations and letters to officials. Like James Rhoads, at any rate, he has a clear conscience. But this is what is wrong with the conservation movement. It has a clear conscience.

The guilty are always other people, and the wrong is always somewhere else. That is why Borenstein finds his "electronic bulletin board" so handy. To the conservation movement, it is only production that causes environmental degradation; the consumption that supports the production is rarely acknowledged to be at fault. The ideal of the run-of-the-mill conservationist is to impose restraints upon production without limiting consumption or burdening the consciences of consumers.

But virtually all of our consumption now is extravagant, and virtually all of it consumes the world. It is not beside the point that most electrical power comes from strip-mined coal . The history of the exploitation of the Appalachian coal fields is long, and it is available to readers.

I do not see how anyone can read it and plug in any appliance with a clear conscience. If Rhoads can do so, that does not mean that his conscience is clear; it means that his conscience is not working.

To the extent that we consume, in our present circumstances, we are guilty. To the extent that we guilty consumers are conservationists, we are absurd. But what can we do ? Must we go on writing letters to politicians and donating to conservation organizations until the majority of our fellow citizens agree with us? Or can we do something directly to solve our share of the problem?

I am a conservationist. I believe wholeheartedly in putting pressure on the politicians and in maintaining the conservation organizations. But I wrote my little essay partly in distrust of centralisation. I don't think that the government and the conservation organizations alone will ever make us a conserving society.

Why do I need a centralized computer system to alert me to environmental crises? That I live every hour of every day in an environmental crisis I know from all my senses. Why then is not my first duty to reduce, so far as I can, my own consumption?

Finally, it seems to me that none of my correspondents recognizes the innovativeness of my essay. If the use of a computer is a new idea, then a newer idea is not to use one.

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It's all temporary

SUBHEAD: Media and the devices that present content are transient like everything else. Get used to it.

By Juan Wilson on 13 March 2017 for Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2017/03/its-all-temporary.html)


Image above: Photo of obsolete and/or broken technologies I keep on a windowsill to remind me of the transience of media reality. Photo by Juan Wilson.

The last few weeks I've been trying to replay some video tapes I shot in the years between 1997 and 2007. In that decade I was using Sony Hi8 Digital video camera. I had about almost a hundred hours plus of recordings. My kids, my wife's kids, living in Panama NY, visiting Panama Central America. Living on Maui, renting a house on the Big Island, moving to Kauai, etc.

Problem was my older SonyHi8 was dead and the newer Digital Hi8 wasn't tracking the tape well. I went to Ebay and found  an "as good as new" digital Hi8. It tore three tapes in half. I returned it and went back to my newer Hi8. After lots of coaxing I got it to go and have been able to view a few of the tapes.

Bottom line. You cannot go back very far relying on digital recordings or records of your life to be there when you want them in the future.

I have kept libraries of records from various digital technologies going back to the 1960's and unless I get a special pass for the "Old Digital Devices section of the Smithsonian Museum I will likely never see or hear the content of those libraries.

For example, in the late 1960's I was studying architecture at the Cooper Union in New York. They had a new computer center that took up two classrooms that ran Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) state of the art PDP-8 computer. It compiled programs and read data off punch cards and would type the results on a 17" wide chain driven impact printer.

A classmate, Ralph Lerner and I wrote structural engineering programs in Fortran IV and could calculate structural engineering stresses on various frames by punching cards describing loads and their arrangement on the frame. The impact printer would draw the frame and note results of calculations.

I have a library of all the programs Ralph and I wrote. They have weathered the 50 years but I have no DEC computer to compile programs and run data cards through. In fact DEC corporation, once number the number two to IBM, no longer exists. I will never see those programs run again.

Later, in the early 1980s working in the field of architecture at Davis Brody & Associates I used DEC VAX-11 computer. The VAX was the first widely used 32-bit minicomputer.

The VAX-11 was capable of running serious Computer Aided Design software. Davis-Brody had a version of G3, the program designed for General Electric to do engineering drawings for such things as nuclear power plants.

Our first workstation cost $250,000. AutoCad today costs about 1% of that today.

I still have DEC 1" compact tapes that contain the G3 program and the macro-programs we developed specifically for architecture. Those tapes will never see a VAX-11 again.

I also have 5.25" floppies from PC computers as well as 3.5" floppies used by Amiga and Macintosh machines. I even have an bunch of 100mb ZIP discs. None of these will be spun up.

I won't go into the various other formats for work and entertainment I have kept remnants of, but the list goes on.

What has worked of all those decades? Reel-to-reel and LP records. Machines to play those media are still being manufactured. I think the most durable recording technology in my lifetime has been the cassette audio tape. I have several hundred that go back to the early 1970s and they still sound fresh. I think that's in part because I recorded most on high-end tapes.

It is getting harder to find cassette tape recorders, but they are still available. If you want to hear your tapes into the future get a good one like the Tascam CC-222 mk IV.

I received a CC0-222 from my wife Linda for my 70th birthday two years ago. It's a wonderful machine - a high end cassette that will dub a tape to CD or a CD to tape. The later path might be in order after you read the article below on CD disintegration.



Your CD's are rotting

SUBHEAD: Certifying a CD-ROM did not place any requirement on the chemical or physical stability of the disc.

By Cory Doctorow on 11 March 2017 for Boing Boing -
(http://boingboing.net/2017/03/11/bitrot.html)


Image above: A CD of questionable veracity. From original article.

In 2009, the Library of Congress commissioned a research report into the degradation of CD-ROMs in storage as a way of assessing the integrity of the media in its collection: the news isn't pretty.

The standards for certifying a CD-ROM did not "place any requirement on the chemical or physical stability of the disc," so depending on the manufacturer and process, the discs you've put away on shelves may have wildly different material properties.

The study involved taking a trove of discarded/duplicate CD-ROMs from the LoC's collection and subjecting them to "accelerated aging" processes to see how many errors emerged as the media aged. Keeping discs dry and cool helped reduce error rates, but even so there's a lot of bitrot there.

One thing that's happened since this study is an acceleration in the plunging costs of online storage -- HDDs and SSDs -- and cloud services, which are all "live" media, regulated by microcontrollers that continuously poll their storage media for degradation, marking off sectors as bad when they turn and copying their data to still-good sectors before it becomes unreadable.

This is a major difference between today's state of affairs and the long, awkward adolescence of mass storage, when keeping all your data online was prohibitively expensive, which meant that some fraction of your archives would end up on offline/nearline media, from tapes to CDs to Zip and Jazz and floppy discs.

All media is subject to entropy, but offline/nearline media is not easily hedged against the Second Law of Thermodynamics with measures like continuous scheduled offsite backups and continuous defect-scanning.
The results of this study show that individual CD-ROM life expectancies in a large collection such as that held by the Library of Congress can be expected to cover a wide range. In addition, the BLER degradation rate of individual discs will be dependant on the environmental conditions to which the disc is exposed. Selecting optimal conditions for temperature and relative humidity in facilities where compact discs are stored can be expected to have a significant impact on service life.

Other factors not covered in this study, such as handling, labeling, and exposure to certain materials or chemicals, also affect service life and must be considered as part of a comprehensive approach to preserving digital information on compact disc media.
The test population selected for this experiment was extremely diverse; representing discs constructed using different materials, from different manufacturers and record labels.

Although the selected discs covered a relatively limited period of manufacture the wide distribution of life expectancies demonstrates the effect of these varied construction parameters on disc life. 10% of the discs failed at an estimated life of less than 25 years, including 6 discs (5%) that failed too early to obtain meaningful data or a meaningful lifetime estimate. 23 discs (16%) had insufficient increase in errors during the test, and thus, had infinite lifetimes, by the standards of the ISO test method. These results illustrate why it is so difficult to make broad generalizations about the lifetime of optical media.

The Library of Congress plans to conduct analyses of the material composition of selected discs from both this study and the on-going Natural Aging Study to look for trends in failure modes as they relate to the chemistry of the disc. An understanding of these failure modes can help in identifying discs that are prone to early failure so that the data can be transferred to more stable media before they reach end-of-life.
COMPACT DISC SERVICE LIFE: AN INVESTIGATION OF THE ESTIMATED SERVICE LIFE OF PRERECORDED COMPACT DISCS (CD-ROM) [Chandru J. Shahani, Michele H. Youket and Norman Weberg/Library of Congress]

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Is Apple Flying Or Dying?

SUBHEAD: A closer look at iPhone 7 indicates the evolutionary development of our wireless future.

By Ewan Spence on 18 September 2016 for Forbes-
(http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2016/09/18/iphone-7-big-question-apple-doomed/)


Image above: iPhone7 promotional photo in fragile Jet Black finish. From original article.

What do the new iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus smartphones tell us about Apple’s future? Let’s start this discussion with a simple premise that I think we can all agree on. Apple is not in stasis, it will change.

 Companies are always in transition, they hope to end up in a better place but in many cases the path of good intentions may eventually lead to a painful end.

The iPhone 7 handsets are pivotal phones for Apple. Tim Cook and his team are taking a number of gambles with the hardware, the software, the distribution, and its corporate attitude.

They believe that these changes will help Apple retain its leadership role in the technology space for the second decade of its smartphone (the original iPhone announcement was January 9 2007, so the birthday party is imminent).

The fact that I don’t think the iPhone 7 or 7 Plus change a huge amount for the end-user is a point I may return to in a later article, but my thoughts on why can be found in my ‘First Impressions’ review of the iPhone 7 here on Forbes.

In any case, let’s see what road signs are inside the iPhone 7 family and where they point to.

Everyone will have an opinion on the removal of the headphone jack, and while I wouldn’t want to go as far as saying that the decision was powered by “courage” it does illustrate that Apple is capable divining a future and has the willingness to proactively push towards it.

The move to lightning audio and wireless bluetooth is a ‘typically Apple’ attitude. There’s no point waiting for the combined might of the music industry  and various consumer electronics companies to throw away its comfort blanket, even if bluetooth headphones are starting to be in the majority of sales in some markets. Apple has forced the issue.

Assuming the removal of the jack is a success (and a genteel press corps will help smooth the rough edges of the transition), the opportunities in terms of handset design, reliability, lowered build costs and the potential for improved margins on peripheral sales are all positive benefits for Apple. It’s hard to see the basic shape of a smartphone changing now, so design is going to be focused on the edges.

Losing as many ports as possible will help evolve the smartphone. Switching the home key to a virtual button is more radical, but less likely to annoy the purists.

Again it lowers the count of physical parts on the device which will reduce the bill of materials to Apple, it reduces the number of warranty repairs required, and it will act as another point of difference against the raft of Android smartphones.

Perhaps more importantly, and staying in tune with the approach in audio, it reduces the number of extrusions in the basic chassis and offers far more ‘futuristic’ design choices for next year’s handed. Shorn of the need to prove the lack of a headphone jack or a physical home key, the tenth-anniversary iPhone 8 can bring forward a revolutionary look.

The release of the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus will also generate a vital data point for Apple’s sales team. Last year’s launch of the iPhone Upgrade Program allowed consumers to buy an iPhone direct from Apple in return for two years of monthly payments.

After one year they have the option of extending the payments by one year and trade up to the latest iPhone model. How many people take up this option will help plan the release of ‘the big one’ next year.

Apple has laid out the broad brush strokes of how it sees the future – a world with minimal use of wires, with fewer moving parts on the iPhone, and consumers that treat their smartphone as a monthly lease with ongoing payments rather than a huge investment every twenty-four months.

But Cupertino needs to watch out, because the new iPhone handsets also exhibit traits that could easily derail the company.


iPhone7 Jet Black finish scratches
SUBHEAD: Apple admits its iPhone 7 Jet Black finish is easy to mar.

By Ashley Carmin on 9 September 2016 for The Verge - 
(http://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2016/9/7/12836762/iphone-7-announced-black-scratch)


Image above: The low contrast Apple webpage that admits easy scratching of new Jet Black finished iPhone7.

Can you read that? Let me sum up: the jet black version of the iPhone 7, the one we the people wanted, scratches.

So if you don’t like a scratched iPhone, you’re going to need to invest in a case. People probably won’t be able to see your jet black iPhone 7 through that case. Do you love your phone’s color enough to let it be scratched?

Apple doesn’t have the same footnote for its simply "black" color. It comes in a matte finish and might be more on the gray side, but I think it’s the color we have to go with to avoid scratches.

.

No Substiute for Newspapers

SUBHEAD: We burn our bridges, and raise generations who forgot that those bridges ever existed.

By Brian Kaller on 5 May 2016 for Restoring Mayberry -
(http://restoringmayberry.blogspot.com/2016/05/no-substitute-for-newspapers.html)


Image above: Archive room of the National Newspaper Building storing 60 million newspapers spanning three centuries. From (http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/2015/01/national-newspaper-building-60-million-newspapers-spanning-three-centuries/#5).

[IB Publisher's note: For fifteen years we subscribed to the Garden Island News. After they were bought by an off-island Oahu business and the presses were sold and removed to Canada we cut our subscription. It was hardly a newspaper by then anyway. All the classified ads had drifted to CraigsList and the news was anything but - puff pieces, corporate promos, public relations announcements, etc. Real news and opinion had retreated to the internet - if you could find a reliable source. Just to let you know, when the internet server farms go down because Google FaceBook can't make any money we are prepared. We've invested in a mimeograph machine and a couple of manual typewriters and several reams of paper for future paper editions of Island Breath.]

One of the few web sites I read religiously is the Archdruid Report, by John Michael Greer, celebrating its 10th anniversary this week. Some months ago he wrote a piece about newspapers, and I wrote back this comment:

This piece hits home for me, as I boarded that sinking ship of newspaper journalism in the 1990s, even as newspapers were shrinking their articles and redesigning their pages to look more like web sites.

Before my time, newspapers carried a vast range of information. Many had labour sections written for the majority of people who work for a paycheque, and not just a business section for investors. Some ran synopses of the Sunday sermons of their area’s most prominent religious leaders – important not just for piety, but for politics, as the local preachers and bishops had, and still have, enormous influence. Many came out twice a day, so people could read the news more often than most of us check web sites now.

Our modern culture tells us that we have more information today than anyone in history, because of the internet – but that assumes that data that could theoretically appear on a screen has the same value as words read from paper. In truth, few web sites will cover the library board meeting or the public works department, and if they do they are likely to be a blog by a single unpaid individual. Yet these ordinary entities shape our children's minds and our present health, and as such are infinitely more important than any celebrity gossip -- possibly more important then presidential campaigns.

Even if a blogger were to cover the library board or water board, no editors would exist to review the material for quality or readability, and the writer would be under no social, financial or legal pressure to be accurate or professional, or to publish consistently, or to pass on their duties to another once they resign. Transcripts of church sermons are even harder to find online, so some of the most important shapers of public opinion go unknown by anyone outside their circles.

I’ve worked on a number of issues with community activists in the USA, some left-wing and some right-wing, but no one wanted to associate with a church unless they belonged to one, and then only with their own. When I suggested to one auditorium of activists (left-wing, in this case) that they go to various churches and learn about them, I was actually shouted down; animal sacrifice, I think, would have earned less outrage.

Of course, as people readily point out to me, you can surf the internet and do your own research, but you must work diligently to winnow the accurate material from the dubious claims – anyone can create a web site that says anything. Moreover, most people are not going to do all that trouble themselves – we have lives, after all – and you shouldn’t have to. We used to have people who did that for us, and they were called reporters.

When I talk about newspapers this way, people often respond that we have made progress, for we no longer destroy forests. Of course some people used to harvest trees for newspaper and not replant them, but it doesn’t have to be that way – you could plant willow and get ten tonnes of wood to the hectare per year in this climate, and never fell another ancient forest of giant trees.

Contrast that with the mountains of coal we have to burn to feed server farms, the rare-earth-metal mining, the semiconductor factories and the global shipping that we need to employ just to create a mammoth server farm and global telecommunications network, all to do what we did with a piece of paper.

Once a newspaper was read, moreover, it had only begun its useful life – then it would be used to wrap gifts or groceries, then to line insulation or chicken coops, then as tinder for the fire, and the resulting ashes could then make soap or fertiliser. Once an electronic device has a single minor problem, however, it tends to go into a dump, with all its heavy metals and plastics, perhaps to contaminate the soil for thousands of years to come.

Computers are useful for some things, of course – I’m writing this on one, and you’re all reading this on another one. What I don't like is that we have come to depend on them entirely for everything else in our lives -- reading, organising, music, storytelling, faith, and general human interaction.

Moreover, when everyone is doing this, we no longer feel the need to maintain paper records or photos, and even if we wanted to look at card catalogs or the telephone book, no such things exist anymore. We burn our bridges, and raise generations who forgot that bridges ever existed to anywhere else.
.

Why a Speed Limit on the Internet?

SUBHEAD: Because our appetite for internet volume makes it impossible to run it on renewable energy.

By Kris De Decker on 19 October 2015 for Low Tech Magazine -
(http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2015/10/can-the-internet-run-on-renewable-energy.html)


Image above: High-end tele-presence system for video conferencing. Source: Wikipedia Commons. Courtesy of Tandberg Cooperation. From original article.

In terms of energy conservation, the leaps made in energy efficiency by the infrastructure and devices we use to access the internet have allowed many online activities to be viewed as more sustainable than offline.

On the internet, however, advances in energy efficiency have a reverse effect: as the network becomes more energy efficient, its total energy use increases. This trend can only be stopped when we limit the demand for digital communication.

Although it's a strategy that we apply elsewhere, for instance, by encouraging people to eat less meat, or to lower the thermostat of the heating system, limiting demand remains controversial because it goes against the belief in technological progress. It's even more controversial when applied to the internet, in part because few people make the connection between data and energy.

How much energy does the internet consume? Due to the complexity of the network and its fast-changing nature, nobody really knows. Estimates for the internet's total electricity use vary by an order of magnitude. 

 One reason for the discrepancy between results is that many researchers only investigate a part of the infrastructure that we call The Internet.

In recent years, the focus has been mostly on the energy use of data centers, which host the computers (the "servers") that store all information online. However, in comparison, more electricity is used by the combination of end-use devices (the "clients", such as desktops, laptops and smartphones), the network infrastructure (which transmits digital information between servers and clients), and the manufacturing process of servers, end-use devices, and networking devices. [1]

A second factor that explains the large differences in results is timing. Because the internet infrastructure grows and evolves so fast, results concerning its energy use are only applicable to the year under study. 

Finally, as with all scientific studies, researcher's models, methods and assumptions as a base for their calculations vary, and are sometimes biased due to beliefs or conflicts of interest. 

For example, it won't suprise anyone that an investigation of the internet's energy use by the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity sees much higher electricity consumption than a report written by the information and communication technology industry itself. [2,3]

Eight Billion Pedallers
 Keeping all this in mind, we selected what seems to be the most recent, complete, honest and transparant report of the internet's total footprint. It concludes that the global communications network consumed 1,815 TWh of electricity in 2012. [4] This corresponds to 8% of global electricity production in the same year (22,740 TWh). [5,6]


If we were to try to power the (2012) internet with pedal-powered generators, each producing 70 watt of electric power, we would need 8.2 billion people pedalling in three shifts of eight hours for 365 days per year. (Electricity consumption of end-use devices is included in these numbers, so the pedallers can use their smartphones or laptops while on the job). 

Solar or wind power are not much of a solution, either: 1,815 TWh equals three times the electricity supplied by all wind and solar energy plants in 2012, worldwide. [7]

These researchers estimate that by 2017, the electricity use of the internet will rise to between 2,547 TWh (expected growth scenario) and 3,422 TWh (worst case scenario). If the worst-case scenario materializes, internet-related energy use will almost double in just 5 years time. 

Note that further improvements in energy efficiency are already included in these results. Without advances in efficiency, the internet's energy use would double every two years, following the increase in data traffic. [8]

Increasing Energy Consumption per User
Importantly, the increasing energy consumption of the internet is not so much due to a growing amount of people using the network, as one would assume. 

Rather, it's caused by a growing energy consumption per internet user. The network's data traffic rises much faster than the number of internet users (45% versus 6-7% annually). [9

 There's two main reasons for this. The first is the evolution towards portable computing devices and wireless internet access. The second is the increasing bit rate of the accessed content, mainly caused by the digitalization of TV and the popularity of video streaming.
The increasing energy consumption of the internet is not so much due to a growing amount of people using the network, as one would assume. Rather, it's caused by a growing energy consumption per internet user.
In recent years we have seen a trend towards portable alternatives for the desktop computer: first with the laptop, then the tablet and the smartphone. The latter is on its way to 100% adoption: in rich countries, 84% of the population now uses a smartphone. [9,4]

These devices consume significantly less electricity than desktop computers, both during operation and manufacture, which has given them an aura of sustainability. However, they have other effects that more than off-set this advantage.

First of all, smartphones move much of the computational effort (and thus the energy use) from the end-device to the data center: the rapid adoption of smartphones is coupled with the equally rapid growth in cloud-based computer services, which allow users to overcome the memory capacity and processing power limitations of mobile devices. [4,11]

Because the data that is to be processed, and the resulting outcome must be transmitted from the end-use device to the data center and back again, the energy use of the network infrastructure also increases.

 High-Speed Wireless Internet
Robbing Peter to pay Paul can improve the total efficiency of some computational tasks and thus reduce total energy use, because servers in datacenters are managed more energy efficiently than our end-use devices. 

However, this advantage surely doesn't hold for smartphones that connect wirelessly to the internet using 3G or 4G broadband. Energy use in the network is highly dependent on the local access technology: the "last mile" that connects the user to the backbone of the internet.

A wired connection (DSL, cable, fibre) is the most energy efficient method to access the network.

Wireless access through WiFi increases the energy use, but only slightly. [12,13]


Image above: Wireless traffic through 3G uses 15 times more energy than WiFi, while 4G consumes 23 times more. From original article.

However, if wireless access is made through a cellular network tower, energy use soars. Wireless traffic through 3G uses 15 times more energy than WiFi, while 4G consumes 23 times more. [14] [See also 4, 15]

Desktop computers were (and are) usually connected to the internet via a wired link, but laptops, tablets and smartphones are wirelessly connected, either through WiFi or via a cellular network.

Growth in mobile data traffic has been somewhat restricted to WiFi "offloading": users restrict data connectivity on the 3G interface due to significantly higher costs and lower network performance. [4]

Instead, they connect to WiFi networks that have become increasingly available. With the advance of 4G networks, the speed advantage of WiFi disappears: 4G has comparable or improved network throughput compared to WiFi. [14]

Most network operators are in the process of large-scale rollouts of 4G networks. The number of global 4G connections more than doubled from 200 million at the end of 2013 to 490 million at the end of 2014, and is forecast  to reach 875 million by the end of 2015. [11,16,17]

More Time Online
 The combination of portable computing devices and wireless internet access also increases the time we spend online. [11] This trend did not start with smartphones. 

Laptops were expected to lower the energy consumption of the internet, but they raised it because people took advantage of the laptop's convenience and portability to be online far more often. "It was only with the laptop that the computer entered the living room". [18]

Smartphones are the next step in this evolution. They allow data to be consumed in many places in and outside the home, alongside more conventional computing. [19]

For example, field research has revealed that smartphones are intensively used to fill 'dead time' -- small pockets of time not focused on one specific activity and often perceived as unproductive time: waiting, commuting, being bored, coffee breaks, or "social situations that are not stimulating enough". 

Smartphones also have become to play an important bedtime role, being called upon last thing at night and first thing in the morning. [19]
We are using our increasingly energy efficient devices for longer hours as we send more and more data over a worldwide infrastructure.
Noting these trends, it is clear that not every smartphone is a substitute for a laptop or desktop computer. Both are used alongside each other and even simulatenously. 

In conclusion, thanks to smartphones and wireless internet, we are now connected anywhere and anytime, using our increasingly energy efficient devices for longer hours as we send more and more data over a worldwide infrastructure. [19,20]

The result is more energy use, from the mobile devices themselves, and -- much more important -- in the datacenters and in the network infrastructure. Also, let's not forget that calling someone using a smartphone costs more energy than callling someone using a dumbphone.

Increasing Bit Rates: Music & Video
A second key driver behind the growing energy consumption per internet user is the increasing bit rate of content. The internet started as a text-medium, but images, music and video have become just as important.

Downloading a text page requires very little energy. To give an example, all the text on this blog, some 100 articles, can be packed into less than 9 megabytes (MB) of data. Compare this to a single high-resolution image, which easily gets to 3 MB, or a standard quality 8-minute YouTube video, which ticks off at 30 MB -- three times the data required for all the words on this blog.

Because energy use rises with every bit of data, it matters a lot what we're doing online. And as it turns out, we are increasingly using the network for content with high bit rates, especially video. In 2012, video traffic was 57% of all internet traffic (excluding video exchanged through P2P-networks). It's expected to increase to 69% in 2017. [21]

If video and wireless internet access are the key drivers behind the increasing energy use of the internet, then of course wireless video is the worst offender. And it's exactly that share of traffic that's growing the fastest. 

According to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index, mobile video traffic will grow to 72% of total mobile data traffic in 2019:  [11]
"When device capabilities are combined with faster, higher bandwith, it leads to wide adoption of video applications that contribute to increased data traffic over the network. As mobile network connection speeds increase, the average bit rate of content accessed through the mobile network will increase. High-definition video will be more prevalent, and the proportion of streamed content, as compared to side-loaded content, is also expected to increase. The shift towards on-demand video will affect mobile networks as much as it will affect fixed networks".
Power consumption is not only influenced by data rates but also by the type of service provided. For applications such as email, web browsing, and video and audio downloads, short delays are acceptable. 

However, for real-time services -- video-conferencing, and audio and video streaming -- delay cannot be tolerated. This requires a more performant network, and thus more energy use.

Does the Internet Save Energy?
The growing energy use of the internet is often explained away with the argument that the network saves more energy than it consumes. This is attributed to substitution effects in which online services replace other more energy-intensive activities. [13]

Examples are video conferencing, which is supposed to be an alternative for the airplane or the car, or the downloading or streaming of digital media, which is supposed to be an alternative for manufacturing and shipping DVDs, CDs, books, magazines or newspapers.

Some examples. A 2011 study concluded that "by replacing one in four plane trips with video-conferencing, we save about as much power as the entire internet consumes", while a 2014 study found that "video-conferencing takes at most 7% of the energy of an in-person meeting". [22,23]

However, if video-conferencing is compared to a plane trip.
  • What's the distance traveled? 
  • Is the plane full or not?
  • In what year was it built? 
  • On the other hand, how long does the video-conference take? 
  • Does it happen over a wired or a wireless access network? 
  • Do you use a laptop or a high-end telepresence system?
A video-conference can also replace a phone call or an email, and in these cases energy use goes up, not down.

Concerning digital media, a 2014 study concludes that shifting all DVD viewing to video streaming in the US would represent a savings equivalent to the primary energy used to meet the electricity demand of nearly 200,000 US household per year. [24]
A 2010 study found that streaming a movie consumed 30 to 78% of the energy of traditional DVD rental networks (where a DVD is sent over the mail to the customer who has to send it back later). [25]
Because the estimates for the energy intensity of the internet vary by four orders of magnitude, it's easy to engineer the end result you want.
There are some fundamental problems with these claims. First of all, the results are heavily influenced by how you calculate the energy use of the internet. If we look at the energy use per bit of data transported (the "energy intensity" of the internet), results vary from 0,00064 to 136 kilowatt-hour per Gigabyte (kWh/GB), a difference of four orders of magnitude. [13,19].

The researchers who made this observation conclude that "whether and to what extent it is more energy efficient to download a movie rather than buying a DVD, or more sustainable to meet via video-conferencing instead of traveling to a face-to-face meeting are questions that cannot be satisfyingly answered with such diverging estimates of the substitute's impact." [13]

To make matters worse, researchers have to make a variety of additional assumptions that can have a major impact on the end result.

Time and Distance

All these questions can be answered in such a way that you can engineer the end result you want. That's why it's better to focus on the mechanisms that favour the energy efficiency of online and offline services, what scientists call a "sensitivity analysis". 

To be fair, most researchers perform such an analysis, but its results usually don't make it into the introduction of the paper, let alone into the accompanying press release.

One important difference between online and offline services is the role of time. Online, energy use increases with the time of the activity. If you read two articles instead of one article on a digital news site, you consume more energy. 

But if you buy a newspaper, the energy use is independent of the number of articles you read. A newspaper could even be read by two people so that energy use per person is halved.

Next to time there is the factor of distance. Offline, the energy use increases with the distance, because transportation of a person or product makes up the largest part of total offline energy consumption. 

This is not the case with online activities, where distance has little or no effect on energy consumption.

A sensitivity analysis generates very different conclusions from the ones that are usually presented. 

For example: streaming a music album over the internet 27 times can use more energy than the manufacturing and transportation of its CD equivalent. [26]

Or, reading a digital newspaper on a desktop PC uses more energy than reading a paper version from the moment the reading length exceeds one hour and a quarter, taking the view that the newspaper is read by one person. [27]

Or, in the earlier mentioned study about the energy advantage of video-conferencing, reducing the international participant's travel distance from 5,000 to 333 km makes traveling in person more energy efficient than video-conferencing when a high-end telepresence system is used. Similarly, if the online conference takes not 5 but 75 hours, it's more energy efficient to fly 5,000 km. [23]

Rebound Effects

The energy efficiency advantage of video-conferencing looks quite convincing, because 75-hour meetings are not very common. 

However, we still have to discuss what is the most important problem with studies that claim energy efficiency advantages for online services: they usually don't take into account rebound effects. 

A rebound effect refers to the situation in which the positive effect of technologies with improved efficiency levels is offset by systematic factors or user behaviour.

For example, new technologies rarely replace existing ones outright, but instead are used in conjunction with one another, thereby negating the proposed energy savings. [28]

Not every video conference call is a substitute for physical travel. It can also replace a phone call or an email, and in these cases energy use goes up, not down. [23]

Likewise, not every streamed video or music album is a substitute for a physical DVD or CD. The convenience of streaming and the advance of portable end-use devices with wireless access leads to more video viewing and music listening hours [24], at the expense of other activities which could include reading, observing one's environment, or engaging in a conversation.

Because the network infrastructure of the internet is becoming more energy efficient every year -- the energy use per bit of data transported continues to decrease -- it's often stated that online activities will become more energy efficient over time, compared to offline activities. [3]

However, as we have seen, the bit rate of digital content online is also increasing.

This is not only due to the increasing popularity of video applications, but also because of the increasing bit rate of the videos themselves. 

Consequently, future efficiency improvements in the network infrastructure will bring higher quality movies and video-conferencing, not energy savings. According to several studies, bit rates increase faster than energy efficiency so that green gains of online alternatives are decreasing. [23,24,25]

Efficiency Drives Energy Use
The rebound effect is often presented as a controversial issue, something that may or may not exist. But at least when it comes to computing and the internet, it's an ironclad law. 

The rebound effect manifests itself undoubtedly in the fact that the energy intensity of the internet (energy used per unit of information sent) is decreasing while total energy use of the internet is increasing.

It's also obvious in the evolution of microprocessors. The electricity use in fabricating a microprocessor has fallen from 0.028 kWh per MHz in 1995 to 0.001 kWh per MHz in 2006 as a result of improvements in manufacturing processes. [29]

However, this has not caused a corresponding reduction of energy use in microprocessors. Increased functionality -- faster microprocessors -- has cancelled out the efficiency gains per MHz. In fact, this rebound effect has become known as Moore's Law, which drives progress in computing. [28,29]

In other words, while energy efficiency is almost universally presented as a solution for the growing energy use of the internet, it's actually the cause of it. 

When computers were still based on vacuum tubes instead of transistors on a chip, the power used by one machine could be as high as 140 kilowatt.

Today's computers are at least a thousand times more energy efficient, but it's precisely because of this improved energy efficiency that they are now on everybody's desk and in everybody's pocket. 

Meanwhile, the combined energy use of all these more energy-efficient machines outperforms the combined energy use of all vacuum tube computers by several orders of magnitude.

Sufficiency
In conclusion, we see that the internet affects energy use on three levels. The primary level is the direct impact through the manufacturing, operation and disposal of all devices that make up the internet infrastructure: end-use devices, data centers, network and manufacturing.

On a second level, there are indirect effects on energy use due to the internet's power to change things, such as media consumption or physical travel, resulting in a decrease or increase of the energy use. 

On a third level, the internet shifts consumption patterns, brings technological and societal change, and contributes to economic growth. [28,29]

The higher system levels are vastly more important than the direct impacts, despite receiving very little attention. [29]
"[The internet] entails a progressive globalization of the economy that has thus far caused increasing transportation of material products and people...  The induction effect arising from the globalization of markets and distributed forms of production due to telecommunication networks clearly leads away from the path of sustainability... Finally, the information society also means acceleration of innovation processes, and thus ever faster devaluation of the existing by the new, whether hardware or software, technical products or human skills and knowledge." [28]
Nobody can deny that the internet can save energy in particular cases, but in general the overwhelming trend is towards ever-higher energy use. This trend will continue unabated if we don't act. 

There's no constraint on the bit rate of digital data. Blu-ray provides superior viewing experience, with data sizes ranging between 25 and 50 GB -- five to ten times the size of a HD video. With viewers watching 3D movies at home, we can imagine future movie sizes of 150 GB, while holographic movies go towards 1,000 GB. [25]

Nor is there any constraint on the bit rate of wireless internet connections. Engineers are already preparing the future launch of 5G, which will be faster than 4G but also use more energy. There's not even a constraint on the number of internet connections. 

The concept of the "internet of things" foresees that in the future all devices could be connected to the internet, a trend that's already happening. [4,11]

And let's not forget that for the moment only 40% of the global population has access to the internet.

In short, there are no limits to growth when it comes to the internet, except for the energy supply itself. This makes the internet rather unique. 

For example, while the rebound effect is also very obvious in cars, there are extra limits which impede their energy use from increasing unabated. Cars can't get larger or heavier ad infinitum, as that would require a new road and parking infrastructure. 

And cars can't increase their speed indefinitely, because we have imposed maximum speed limits for safety. The result is that the energy use of cars has more or less stabilized. You could argue that cars have achieved a status of "sufficiency":
"A system consuming some inputs from its environment can either increase consumption whenever it has the opportunity to do so, or keep its consumption within certain limits. In the latter case, the system is said to be in a state of sufficiency... A sufficient system can improve its outputs only by improving the efficiency of its internal process." [31]
The performance of cars has only increased within the limits of the energy efficiency progress of combustion engines. A similar effect can be seen in mobile computing devices, which have reached a state of sufficiency with regard to electricity consumption -- at least for the device itself. [31]

In smartphones, energy use is limited by a combination of battery constraints: energy density of the battery, acceptable weight of the battery, and required battery life. The consequence is that the per-device energy use is more or less stable. 

The performance of smartphones has only increased within the limits of the energy efficiency progress of computing (and to some extent the energy density progress of batteries). [31]

A Speed Limit for the Internet
 In contrast, the internet has very low sufficiency. On the internet, size and speed are not impractical or dangerous. Batteries limit the energy use of mobile computing devices, but not the energy use of all the other components of the network.

Consequently, the energy use of the internet can only stop growing when energy sources run out, unless we impose self-chosen limits, similar to those for cars or mobile computing devices. 

This may sound strange, but it's a strategy we also apply quite easily to thermal comfort (lower the thermostat, dress better) or transportation (take the bike, not the car).

Limiting the demand for data could happen in many ways, some of which are more practical than others. We could outlaw the use of video and turn the internet back into a text and image medium. We could limit the speed of wireless internet connections. We could allocate a specific energy budget to the internet. 

Or, we could raise energy prices, which would simultaneously affect the offline alternatives and thus level the playing field. The latter strategy is preferable because it leaves it to the market to decide which applications and devices will survive.
Setting a limit would not stop technological progress. Advances in energy efficiency will continue to give room for new devices and applications to appear.

Although none of these options may sound attractive, it's important to note that setting a limit would not stop technological progress. Advances in energy efficiency will continue to give room for new devices and applications to appear. However, innovation will need to happen within the limits of energy efficiency improvements, as is now the case with cars and mobile computing devices.

In other words: energy efficiency can be an important part of the solution if it is combined with sufficiency.

Limiting demand would also imply that some online activities move back to the off-line world -- streaming video is candidate number one. It's quite easy to imagine offline alternatives that give similar advantages for much less energy use, such as public libraries with ample DVD collections. 

Combined with measures that reduce car traffic, so that people could go to the library using bikes or public transportation, such a service would be both convenient and efficient.

Rather than replacing physical transportation by online services, we should fix the transport infrastructure.

In the next articles, we investigate the low-tech information networks that are being developed in poor countries. There, "sufficiency" is ingrained in society, most notably in the form of a non-existing or non-reliable energy infrastructure and limited purchasing power.

We also discuss the community networks that have sprung up in remote regions of rich countries, and the designs for shared networks in cities. These alternative networks provide much more energy efficient alternatives for digital communication in exchange for a different use of the internet.


Sources:
[1] Even the most complete studies about the internet's energy use do not take into account all components of the infrastructure. For example, the embodied energy of the energy plants which are used to power the internet is completely ignored. However, if you run a data center or cellular tower on solar energy, it's obvious that the energy it took to produce the solar panels should be included as well. The same goes for the batteries that store solar energy for use during the night or on cloudy days.
[2] "The cloud begins with coal: big data, big networks, big infrastructure, and big power" (PDF), Mark P. Mills, National Mining Association / American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, augustus 2013
[3] "SMARTer2030 -- ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges" (PDF), Global e-Sustainability Initiative, 2015
[4] "Emerging trends in electricity consumption for consumer ICT", Peter Corcoran, 2013
[5] "Key Electricity Trends" (PDF), IEA Statistics, 2015
[6] Of the total, 852 TWh was consumed by end-use devices, 352 TWh by networks, 281 TWh by data centers, and 330 TWh during the manufacturing stage.
[7] "Worldwide electricity production from renewable energy sources, edition 2013", Observ'ER
[8] The researchers also provide a "best case scenario" in which energy use increases only slightly.  However, this scenario is already superseded by reality. It supposes slow growth of wireless data traffic and digital TVs, but the opposite has happened, as Cisco Visual Networking Index [11] shows. Furthermore, the best-case-scenario supposes a year-on-year improvement in energy efficiency of 5% for most device categories and an annual improvement in efficiency of the core network of 15%. These figures are well above those of past years and thus not very likely to materialize. The expected growth scenario supposes wireless traffic to grow to 9% of total network electricity consumption, and digital TV to stabilize at 2.1 billion units. In this scenario, energy efficiency improvements for devices are limited to 2% per year, while energy efficiency in the core network is limited to 10% per year. In the worst case scenario, wireless traffic grows to 15% of total network electricity consumption, digital TV will keep growing, and improvements in energy efficiency are limited to 1-5% annually for devices and to 5% in the core network. [4]
[9] "Measuring the Information Society Report 2014" (PDF), International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 2014
[11] "Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019", CISCO, 2015.
[12] "Small network equipment key product criteria", Energy Star, retrieved September 2015.
[13] "The energy intensity of the internet: home and access networks" (PDF), Vlad Coroama, 2014
[14] "A close examination of performance and power characteristics of 4G LTE networks" (PDF), Junxian Huang, June 2012.
[15] "Energy consumption in mobile phones: a measurement study and implications for network applications" (PDF), Niranjan Balasubramanian, 2009
[16] "4G networks to cover more than a third of the global population this year, according to new GSMA intellligence data", GSMA Intelligence, 2015
[17] Network equipment manufacturer Cisco notes in its 2015 report that "as mobile network capacity improves and the number of multiple device users grow, operators are more likely to offer mobile broadband packages comparable in price and speed to those of fixed broadband." [11] If this becomes true, and a majority of internet users would routinely connect to the internet through 4G broadband, the energy use of the network infrastructure would more than double, assuming data traffic would remain the same. [4] That's because from an energy perspective, the access network is the greedy part of any service provider's network. The core network of optic cables is much more energy efficient. [4]
[18] "Are we sitting comfortably? Domestic imaginaries, laptop practices, and energy use". Justin Spinney, 2012
[19] "Demand in my pocket: mobile devices and the data connectivity marshalled in support of everyday practice" (PDF), Caolynne Lord, Lancaster University, april 2015
[20] "Towards a holistic view of the energy and environmental impacts of domestic media and IT", Oliver Bates et al., 2014
[21] "Cisco Visual Networking Index 2012-2017", Cisco, 2013
[22] "The energy and emergy of the internet" (PDF), Barath Raghavan and Justin Ma, 2011
[23] "Comparison of the energy, carbon and time costs of videoconferencing and in-person meetings", Dennis Ong, 2014
[24] "The energy and greenhouse-gas implications of internet video streaming in the united states", 2014
[25] "Shipping to streaming: is this shift green?", Anand Seetharam, 2010
[26] "MusicTank report focuses on environmental impact of streaming platforms", CMU, 2012
[27] "Screening environmental life cycle assessment of printed, web based and tablet e-paper newspaper", Second Edition, Asa Moberg et al, 2009
[28] "Information Technology and Sustainability: essays on the relationship between ICT and sustainable development", Lorenz M. Hilty, 2008
[29] "Environmental effects of informantion and communications technologies", Eric Williams, Nature, 2011
[30] "Computing Efficiency, Sufficiency, and Self-Sufficiency: A Model for Sustainability?" (PDF), Lorenz M. Hilty, 2015


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