Showing posts with label El Nino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label El Nino. Show all posts

Global Warming clobbers Ocean Life

SOURCE: Katherine Muzik PHD (kmuzik@gmail.com)
SUBHEAD: These die-offs are different, much different. All-out alarm is warranted with bells clanging!

By Robert Hunziker on 16 January 2016 for Counter Punch -
(http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/01/16/global-warming-clobbers-ocean-life/)


Image above: Scientists measuring thinness of ice in the Arctic around meltponds. From (https://fossilfreeri.org/2015/07/26/science-risk-and-morality/).

The waters of the Pacific off the California coast are transparently clear. Problem is: Clear water is a sign that the ocean is turning into desert (Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA).

From Alaska to Central America, and beyond, sea life has been devastated over the past three years like never before. Is it Fukushima, or nature running its own course, or some kind of perverse wrath emanating from global warming? For a hint, scientists refer to the lethal ocean warming over the past few years as “the Warm Blob.”

After all, global warming hits the ocean much, much harder than land. Up to 90% of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming is absorbed by the ocean, which is fortuitous for humans.

Just imagine the chaos if the situation were reversed: Mobs of regular ole people morphing into maddened gangs striving for food, huddled in far northern latitudes while Mid America scorches brittle crops in sandy soil, a dystopian lifestyle.

“Upper ocean heat content has increased significantly over the past two decades” (Source: Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content, NOAA, Climate.gov, July 14, 2015). More than 3,000 Argo floats strategically positioned worldwide measure ocean temps every 10 days.

Scientists classify the Warm Blob phenomenon as “multi-year ocean heat waves,” with temperatures 7° F above normal and up to 10°F above normal in extreme cases. How would humans handle temperatures, on average, 7° to 10°F above normal? There’d be mass migrations from Florida to Alaska, for sure.

As it happens, sea animals do not do well. They die in unbelievably massive numbers; all across the ocean… the animal die-offs are unprecedented. Scientists are stunned!

After years of horrendous worldwide sea animal die-offs, 2016 was a banner year. Is this out of the ordinary? Sadly, the answer is: Yes.

The numbers are simply staggering, not just in the Pacific, but around the world, e.g., the following is but a partial list during only one month (December 2016):
Tens of thousands of dead starfish beached in Netherlands;
Six-thousand dead fish in Maryland waterway;
Ten tons of dead fish in Brazilian river;
Tens of thousands of dead fish wash up on Cornwall, England beach;
Schools of dead herring in Nova Scotia;
One 100 tons of fish suddenly dead in Indonesia;
Massive fish deaths ‘state of calamity’ in Philippines;
Thousands of dead crayfish float down river in New Zealand;
Masses of dead starfish, crabs, and fish wash ashore in Nova Scotia, and there are more and more….
In fact, entire articles are written about specific areas of massive die offs, for example: “Why Are Chilean Beaches Covered With Dead Animals?” Smithsonian.com, May 4, 2016. Chilean health officials had to resort to heavy machinery to remove 10,000 dead rotting squid from coastlines earlier in the 2016 year.

Over 300 whale carcasses hit the beaches and 8,000 tons of sardines and 12% of the annual salmon catch… all found dead on beaches, to name only a few! You’ve gotta wonder why?

According to Nate Mantua, research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Santa Cruz, California: “One of the things that is clear is there’s a lot of variation from year to year along the Pacific Coast, and some of that is tied into natural patterns, like El Niño,’ Mantua said. ‘But what we saw in 2014, ‘15 and the first part of ‘16 was warmer than anything we’ve seen in our historical records, going back about 100 years” (Mary Callahan, Year in Review: Ocean Changes Upend North Coast Fisheries, The Press Democrat, Dec. 25, 2016).

Fishermen bitterly claim the ocean is changing like never before. Meanwhile, scientists study those weird changes but do not fully understand the problem.

Unfortunately, the general public does not see changes hidden within water; otherwise, they, the general public, might organize and demand their politicians in Washington, D.C. fight climate change/global warming.

According to John Largier, professor of coastal oceanography at UC Davis Bodega Marine Laboratory, “Climate change syndrome is definitely having an impact,” Ibid.

As it happens, the world climate system is interconnected, interwoven such that climatic stress originated at sea spills onto land, e.g., the Warm Blob was first observed and linked to a high-pressure ridge stationed over the north Pacific in 2011.

 This ridge diverted winter storms, thereby exacerbating California’s drought meanwhile weakening winds that ordinarily absorb ocean heat and stir up the cold water necessary for immensely productive Northern Coast breeding grounds for marine wildlife.

Morosely, too-warm ocean water serves as breeding ground for the infamous deadly “red tide,” a bloom of single-celled organism that thrives in warmer waters, producing a neurotoxin called domoic acid, resulting in enormous numbers of sea lion fatalities and massive destruction of Dungeness crab fisheries and all kinds of other trouble.

Too-warm water also contributes to the collapse of bull kelp forests, which are the ocean’s equivalent of the tropical rain forest; meanwhile, purple urchins thrive and multiply in explosive fashion in the poisonous environment, devouring remaining plant life. Thereby, out-competing hapless red abalone, the shellfish that people love.

Collapsing food chains are evident up and down the Pacific Coast earmarked by large die offs of Cassin Auklets, a tiny seabird, as well as massive numbers of Common Murres. The sea lions and fur seals suffer from starvation and domoic acid poisoning. In early 2013 scientists declared the sea lion die-off an “unusual mortality event.”

Nursing sea lion mothers are unable to find enough forage like sardines and anchovies. Pups, searching for food, strand on beaches filled with curious sunbathers with a natural proclivity to cuddle the hapless cuties that could easily result in fierce attacks. As it happens, lifeguards run along sandy beaches warning beachcombers beware!

Still, wildlife die-offs are an ancient phenomenon, mentioned by Aristotle in his Historia Animalium (4th Century B.C.). In the U.S. in 1884, hundreds of tons of dead fish bellied up in lakes around Madison, Wisconsin. This knowledge of the past gives one pause when considering whether an all-out alarm is warranted this time around. After all, isn’t it nature’s way?

No, this time it is different, much different. The all-out alarm is warranted with bells clanging! Yes, of course part of nature’s cycle over the eons involves wildlife die-offs. That’s nature, but nowadays nature is out-of-whack! Ring the bells; blast the sirens!

As published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Recent Shifts in the Occurrence, Cause, and Magnitude of Animal Mass Events, Vol. 112, no. 4, Aug. 5, 2014) it was found that worldwide animal die-offs are increasing in both number and magnitude, even after statistically correcting for the fact that mass deaths are now more likely to be documented than in the past.

“Every biologist I spoke with who is researching mass-mortality events said that many wildlife die-offs today really could be signals of serious problems with the ecological fundamentals of the planet” (Source: J.B. MacKinnon, On Animal Deaths and Human Anxieties, The New Yorker, April 21, 2015). That is the worst possible news you can ever hear.

As for only one example amongst many, the typical number of bird deaths per reported die-off was about 100 in the 1940s. Today it is 10,000 and reported much more frequently than 75 years ago.

Bottom line, the ocean ecosystem is under fierce attack, and it is real, very real indeed with too much global warming, too much ag runoff, too much heavy-duty massive overfishing, likely too much nuclear radiation.

The ocean absorbs anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, similar to the upper atmospheric   The ocean absorbs 90% of the heat that is generated CO2.  Thank your lucky stars for that… but only temporarily!

There is deadly acidification in the ocean caused by excessive CO2 concentrations (already damaging pteropods at the base of the marine food chain).

As stated by the Environmental Defense Fund: “Oceans are at the Brink”- For decades, the ocean has been absorbing carbon dioxide (CO2) dumped into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. It has absorbed a lot of the extra heat produced by elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. But even the ocean has limits!

Going forward, how will the Trump administration confront this messy, possibly fatal and very complex situation, since fossil fuels are the main driver behind climate change/global warming?

Will the Trump administration initiate a nationwide renewable energy plan, similar to Communist China? Accordingly: (Michael Forsythe, China Aims to Spend at Least $360 Billion on Renewable Energy by 2020, New York Times, January 5, 2017)

.

Record El Nino icing on CO2 cake

SUBHEAD: Storms spawned by El Nino are now occurring on top of the influence coming from man's global warming activity.

By Lauren McCauley on 14 September 2015 for Common Dreams -
(http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/09/14/record-el-nino-puts-icing-global-warming-cake)


Image above: A view from space of Typhoon Halong, a catagory 5 hurricane, in the Pacific Ocean in 2014. It was of the strongest storms recorded. Photo by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center/cc/flickr. From original article.

Human-induced climate change has pushed the Earth to the brink of a major shift as scientists predict rapidly rising global temperatures within the next two years.

A study, titled Big Changes Underway in the Climate System? (pdf) and published by the British Meteorological Office, notes that heightened greenhouse gas emissions will exacerbate the naturally-occurring phenomenon known as El Niño to push global temperatures to record highs.

This temporary warming of surface waters in the Pacific, known as El Niño, drives dramatic shifts in rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns worldwide, and can last for months or even years.

In the short term, this means that the Southern Hemisphere can expect record heatwaves during its 2015-2016 summer season, coupled with the extreme weather events, such as typhoons, typically associated with an El Niño.

"It looks very likely that globally 2014, 2015 and 2016 will all be amongst the very warmest years ever recorded," said scientist Rowan Sutton, who peer-reviewed the study.

"This is not a fluke," Sutton, who works for the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, continued. "We are seeing the effects of energy steadily accumulating in the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere, caused by greenhouse gas emissions."

In the most recent El Niño update released last Thursday, the National Weather Service also noted the planet is currently experiencing the upswing of one of the strongest El Niño events, and quite possibly the strongest, of the past 65 years of recordkeeping.

More broadly, researchers say that the Earth may be seeing the end of a global slowdown in surface temperature increases—known by some as the global warming "pause"—and can expect to enter a period of higher temperature increases, returning to the heightened rate seen before the downtrend began.

"It is now likely that decadal warming rates will reach late 20th century levels in the next couple of years," said the study's lead researcher, professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre.
The study comes as international delegates are preparing for the COP21 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Paris from November 30 to December 11, during which they are expected to cement climate policies with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C.
Scaife notes that the combination of both natural and man-made factors has brought us to a "turning point" in the Earth's climate trajectory.

"We believe we are at an important point in the time series of the Earth's climate and we'll look back on this period as an important turning point," he said. "That's why we're emphasizing it because we're seeing so many big changes at once."

Scaife notes that El Niños and atmospheric oscillations in the Atlantic are "natural." However, he adds, "they are now occurring on top of the influence coming from man's activity, so when they occur, when an El Niño comes and raises the global temperature, that is the icing on the cake, that is the extra bit that creates a record."

.

Hawaiian Sea Level Fate

SUBHEAD: Sea level rise has been artificially low in Hawaii—but it’s going to catch up.

By Jan TenBrugencate on 2 September 2015 for Raising Islands -
(http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2015/09/sea-level-rise-has-been-artificially.html)


Image above: Computer image of sea level rise in Pacific Ocean. Red is highest rise, whereas blue is even or even a lowering of ocean level. From original article.

Sea levels are rising globally at an increasing rate—three inches in the last 25 years or so--but we’re not seeing that much in Hawaii.

So what’s up?

One answer to this mystery is that our islands are in a kind of temporary sweet spot. Satellite imagery shows that while most of the globe has seen dramatic rises in sea levels—as much as 3 inches in the past 25 years—Hawaii has been flat to actually lower.

(Image: The red shows areas of dramatic sea level rise. Blue shows areas where it’s flat or down. Hawai`i appears in the blue zone. But how long will that last? Credit: NASA.)

At a human scale, this makes no sense. If you fill a bathtub, clearly it fills all around the tub.

But global scales are different. There are humps and valleys in the oceans across the scale of thousands of miles. Winds can push water up against a coast, creating a hump. Eddies can change sea levels regionally. Currents and storms and tides and even temperatures can all impact the height of the ocean.

“In a nutshell it's due to changes in winds and ocean circulation that counteract the global sea level signal regionally. That should shift as part of a long-term fluctuation but no projections on when that is likely to occur. This big El Nino may herald the start of a shift, but we have to see how that plays out,” said University of Hawaii oceanographer Mark Merrifield.

Here is NASA’s recent report on accelerating sea levels and related issues.

“Sea levels are rising rapidly—much more rapidly than they have any time in the last several thousand years,” said NASA’s Joshua Willis, at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

And the rate of increase has been increasing as well, he said. It was about 1 millimeter annually in 1900, rose to 2 millimeters annually in the mid 1900s, and is now at 3 millimeters annually. That works out to more than an inch a decade.

I wrote to Willis to ask whether our islands can continue to dodge this bullet.

“In the long run sea level rise will affect Hawaii as well. Because it is in the central Pacific, the impacts of the long-term natural cycles may not be quite as large. Eventually, however, the global rates of rise will be felt in Hawaii also,” he said.

University of Hawaii coastal geologist Charles “Chip” Fletcher agreed.

“The global oceans cannot keep rising without us experiencing the rise as well - we just may be able to avoid the worst aspects of the variability. On the other hand, models show that the tropics as a region will experience the upper end of global sea level change, so that makes us part of a more dangerous region.

“I have held for several years that Hawaii should plan for one meter of sea level rise by end of century and as far as I can see that is still a valid number,” he said.

.