Carbon Currency

SUBHEAD: In a nutshell, Carbon Currency will be based on the regular allocation of available energy to the people of the world. If not used within a period of time, the Currency will expire.

By Patrick Wood on 26 January 2010 in Canada Free Press - 
(http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/19380)

Image above: Oil refinery helping pumping carbon into atmosphere. From (http://www.groovygreen.com/groove/?p=3152) about article on New Currency (http://greenwithagun.blogspot.com/2008/06/introducing-new-currency.html)  

Introduction
Critics who think that the U.S. dollar will be replaced by some new global currency are perhaps thinking too small.

On the world horizon looms a new global currency that could replace all paper currencies and the economic system upon which they are based.

The new currency, simply called Carbon Currency, is designed to support a revolutionary new economic system based on energy (production, and consumption), instead of price. Our current price-based economic system and its related currencies that have supported capitalism, socialism, fascism and communism, is being herded to the slaughterhouse in order to make way for a new carbon-based world.

It is plainly evident that the world is laboring under a dying system of price-based economics as evidenced by the rapid decline of paper currencies. The era of fiat (irredeemable paper currency) was introduced in 1971 when President Richard Nixon decoupled the U.S. dollar from gold. Because the dollar-turned-fiat was the world’s primary reserve asset, all other currencies eventually followed suit, leaving us today with a global sea of paper that is increasingly undesired, unstable, unusable.

The deathly economic state of today’s world is a direct reflection of the sum of its sick and dying currencies, but this could soon change.

Forces are already at work to position a new Carbon Currency as the ultimate solution to global calls for poverty reduction, population control, environmental control, global warming, energy allocation and blanket distribution of economic wealth.

Unfortunately for individual people living in this new system, it will also require authoritarian and centralized control over all aspects of life, from cradle to grave.

What is Carbon Currency and how does it work? In a nutshell, Carbon Currency will be based on the regular allocation of available energy to the people of the world. If not used within a period of time, the Currency will expire (like monthly minutes on your cell phone plan) so that the same people can receive a new allocation based on new energy production quotas for the next period.

Because the energy supply chain is already dominated by the global elite, setting energy production quotas will limit the amount of Carbon Currency in circulation at any one time. It will also naturally limit manufacturing, food production and people movement.

Local currencies could remain in play for a time, but they would eventually wither and be fully replaced by the Carbon Currency, much the same way that the Euro displaced individual European currencies over a period of time.

Sounds very modern in concept, doesn’t it? In fact, these ideas date back to the 1930’s when hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens were embracing a new political ideology called Technocracy and the promise it held for a better life. Even now-classic literature was heavily influenced by Technocracy: George Orwell’s 1984, H.G. Well’s The Shape of Things to Come and Huxley’s “scientific dictatorship” in Brave New World.

This paper investigates the rebirth of Technocracy and its potential to recast the New World Order into something truly “new” and also totally unexpected by the vast majority of modern critics.
 

Background

Philosophically, Technocracy found it roots in the scientific autocracy of Henri de Saint-Simon (1760-1825) and in the positivism of Auguste Comte (1798- 1857), the father of the social sciences. Positivism elevated science and the scientific method above metaphysical revelation. Technocrats embraced positivism because they believed that social progress was possible only through science and technology. [Schunk, Learning Theories: An Educational Perspective, 5th, 315]

The social movement of Technocracy, with its energy-based accounting system, can be traced back to the 1930’s when an obscure group of engineers and scientists offered it as a solution to the Great Depression.

The principal scientist behind Technocracy was M. King Hubbert, a young geoscientist who would later (in 1948-1956) invent the now-famous Peak Oil Theory, also known as the Hubbert Peak Theory. Hubbert stated that the discovery of new energy reserves and their production would be outstripped by usage, thereby eventually causing economic and social havoc. Many modern followers of Peak Oil Theory believe that the 2007-2009 global recession was exacerbated in part by record oil prices that reflected validity of the theory.

Hubbert received all of his higher education at the University of Chicago, graduating with a PhD in 1937, and later taught geophysics at Columbia University. He was highly acclaimed throughout his career, receiving many honors such as the Rockefeller Public Service Award in 1977.

In 1933, Hubbert and Howard Scott formed an organization called Technocracy, Inc. Technocracy is derived from the Greek words “techne” meaning skill and “kratos”, meaning rule. Thus, it is government by skilled engineers, scientists and technicians as opposed to elected officials. It was opposed to all other forms of government, including communism, socialism and fascism, all of which function with a price-based economy.

As founders of the organization and political movement called Technocracy, Inc., Hubbert and Scott also co-authored Technocracy Study Course in 1934. This book serves as the “bible” of Technocracy and is the root document to which most all modern technocratic thinking can be traced.

Technocracy postulated that only scientists and engineers were capable of running a complex, technology-based society. Because technology, they reasoned, changed the social nature of societies, previous methods of government and economy were made obsolete. They disdained politicians and bureaucrats, who they viewed as incompetent. By utilizing the scientific method and scientific management techniques, Technocrats hoped to squeeze the massive inefficiencies out of running a society, thereby providing more benefits for all members of society while consuming less resources.

The other integral part of Technocracy was to implement an economic system based on energy allocation rather than price. They proposed to replace traditional money with Energy Credits.

Their keen focus on the efficient use of energy is likely the first hint of a sustained ecological/environmental movement in the United States. Technocracy Study Course stated, for instance,
Although it (the earth) is not an isolated system the changes in the configuration of matter on the earth, such as the erosion of soil, the making of mountains, the burning of coal and oil, and the mining of metals are all typical and characteristic examples of irreversible processes, involving in each case an increase of entropy. (Technocracy Study Course, Hubbert & Scott, p. 49)


Modern emphasis on curtailing carbon fuel consumption that causes global warming and CO2 emissions is essentially a product of early Technocratic thinking.

As scientists, Hubbert and Scott tried to explain (or justify) their arguments in terms of physics and the law of thermodynamics, which is the study of energy conversion between heat and mechanical work.

Entropy is a concept within thermodynamics that represents the amount of energy in a system that is no longer available for doing mechanical work. Entropy thus increases as matter and energy in the system degrade toward the ultimate state of inert uniformity.

In layman’s terms, entropy means once you use it, you lose it for good. Furthermore, the end state of entropy is “inert uniformity” where nothing takes place. Thus, if man uses up all the available energy and/or destroys the ecology, it cannot be repeated or restored ever again.

The Technocrat’s avoidance of social entropy is to increase the efficiency of society by the careful allocation of available energy and measuring subsequent output in order to find a state of “equilibrium,” or balance. Hubbert’s focus on entropy is evidenced by Technocracy, Inc.’s logo, the well-known Yin Yang symbol that depicts balance.

To facilitate this equilibrium between man and nature, Technocracy proposed that citizens would receive Energy Certificates in order to operate the economy:
“Energy Certificates are issued individually to every adult of the entire population… The record of one’s income and its rate of expenditure is kept by the Distribution Sequence, so that it is a simple matter at any time for the Distribution Sequence to ascertain the state of a given customer’s balance… When making purchases of either goods or services an individual surrenders the Energy Certificates properly identified and signed.
“The significance of this, from the point of view of knowledge of what is going on in the social system, and of social control, can best be appreciated when one surveys the whole system in perspective. First, one single organization is manning and operating the whole social mechanism. The same organization not only produces but also distributes all goods and services.
“With this information clearing continuously to a central headquarters we have a case exactly analogous to the control panel of a power plant, or the bridge of an ocean liner…” [Technocracy Study Course, Hubbert & Scott,p. 238-239]
Two key differences between price-based money and Energy Certificates are that a) money is generic to the holder while Certificates are individually registered to each citizen and b) money persists while Certificates expire. The latter facet would greatly hinder, if not altogether prevent, the accumulation of wealth and property.

Transition


At the start of WWII, Technocracy’s popularity dwindled as economic prosperity returned, however both the organization and its philosophy survived.

Today, there are two principal websites representing Technocracy in North America: Technocracy, Inc., located in Ferndale, Washington, is represented at www.technocracy.org. A sister organization in Vancouver, British Columbia is Technocracy Vancouver, can be found at www.technocracyvan.ca.

While Technocracy’s original focus was exclusively on the North American continent, it is now growing rapidly in Europe and other industrialized nations.

For instance, the Network of European Technocrats was formed in 2005 as “an autonomous research and social movement that aims to explore and develop both the theory and design of technocracy.” The NET website claims to have members around the world.

Of course, a few minor league organizations and their websites cannot hope to create or implement a global energy policy, but it’s not because the ideas aren’t still alive and well.

A more likely influence on modern thinking is due to Hubbert’s Peak Oil Theory introduced in 1954. It has figured prominently in the ecological/environmental movement. In fact, the entire global warming movement indirectly sits on top of the Hubbert Peak Theory.

As the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome recently stated, “The issue of peak oil impinges directly on the climate change question.” (see John H. Walsh, “The Impending Twin Crisis – One Set of Solutions?, p.5.)

The Modern Proposal

Because of the connection between the environmental movement, global warming and the Technocratic concept of Energy Certificates, one would expect that a Carbon Currency would be suggested from that particular community, and in fact, this is the case.

In 1995, Judith Hanna wrote in New Scientist, “Toward a single carbon currency”, “My proposal is to set a global quota for fossil fuel combustion every year, and to share it equally between all the adults in the world.”

In 2004, the prestigious Harvard International Review published “A New Currency” and stated,
“For those keen to slow global warming, the most effective actions are in the creation of strong national carbon currencies For scholars and policymakers, the key task is to mine history for guides that are more useful. Global warming is considered an environmental issue, but its best solutions are not to be found in the canon of environmental law. Carbon’s ubiquity in the world economy demands that cost be a consideration in any regime to limit emissions. Indeed, emissions trading has been anointed king because it is the most responsive to cost. And since trading emissions for carbon is more akin to trading currency than eliminating a pollutant, policymakers should be looking at trade and finance with an eye to how carbon markets should be governed. We must anticipate the policy challenges that will arise as this bottom-up system emerges, including the governance of seams between each of the nascent trading systems, liability rules for bogus permits, and judicial cooperation. [Emphasis added]
HIR concludes that “after seven years of spinning wheels and wrong analogies, the international regime to control carbon is headed, albeit tentatively, down a productive path.”
In 2006, UK Environment Secretary David Miliband spoke to the Audit Commission Annual Lecture and flatly stated,
"Imagine a country where carbon becomes a new currency. We carry bankcards that store both pounds and carbon points. When we buy electricity, gas and fuel, we use our carbon points, as well as pounds. To help reduce carbon emissions, the Government would set limits on the amount of carbon that could be used." [Emphasis added]
In 2007, New York Times published “When Carbon Is Currency” by Hannah Fairfield. She pointedly stated “To build a carbon market, its originators must create a currency of carbon credits that participants can trade.”
PointCarbon, a leading global consultancy, is partnered with Bank of New York Mellon to assess rapidly growing carbon markets. In 2008 they published “Towards a Common Carbon Currency: Exploring the prospects for integrated global carbon markets.This report discusses both environmental and economic efficiency in a similar context as originally seen with Hubbert in 1933.
Finally, on November 9 2009, the Telegraph (UK) presented an article “Everyone in Britain could be given a personal ‘carbon allowance.’”
“… implementing individual carbon allowances for every person will be the most effective way of meeting the targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. It would involve people being issued with a unique number which they would hand over when purchasing products that contribute to their carbon footprint, such as fuel, airline tickets and electricity. Like with a bank account, a statement would be sent out each month to help people keep track of what they are using. If their "carbon account" hits zero, they would have to pay to get more credits”. [Emphasis added]
As you can see, these references are hardly minor league in terms of either authorship or content. The undercurrent of early Technocratic thought has finally reached the shore where the waves are lapping at the beach.

Technocracy’s Energy Card Prototype
In July 1937 an article by Howard Scott in Technocracy Magazine described an Energy Distribution Card in great detail. It declared that using such an instrument as a means of accounting is a part of Technocracy’s proposed change in the course of how our socioeconomic system can be organized.”
Scott further wrote,
“The certificate will be issued directly to the individual. It is nontransferable and nonnegotiable; therefore, it cannot be stolen, lost, loaned, borrowed, or given away. It is noncumulative; therefore, it cannot be saved, and it does not accrue or bear interest. It need not be spent but loses its validity after a designated time period.”
This may have seemed like science fiction in 1937, but today it is wholly achievable. In 2010 Technocracy, Inc. offers an updated idea of what such an Energy Distribution Card might look like. Their website states,
“It is now possible to use a plastic card similar to today’s credit card embedded with a microchip. This chip could contain all the information needed to create an energy distribution card as described in this booklet. Since the same information would be provided in whatever forms best suits the latest technology, however, the concept of an ‘Energy Distribution Card’ is what is explained here.”
If you study the card above, you will also note that is serves as a universal identity card and contains a microchip. This reflects Technocracy’s philosophy that each person in society must be meticulously monitored and accounted for in order to track what they consume in terms of energy, and also what they contribute to the manufacturing process.


Carbon Market Players
The modern system of carbon credits was an invention of the Kyoto Protocol and started to gain momentum in 2002 with the establishment of the first domestic economy-wide trading scheme in the U.K. After becoming international law in 2005, the trading market is now predicted to reach $3 trillion by 2020 or earlier.

Graciela Chichilnisky, director of the Columbia Consortium for Risk Management and a designer of the carbon credit text of the Kyoto Protocol, states that the carbon market “is therefore all about cash and trading – but it is also a way to a profitable and greener future.” (See Who Needs a Carbon Market?)

Who are the “traders” that provide the open door to all this profit? Currently leading the pack are JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Bloomberg noted in Carbon Capitalists on December 4, 2009 that
“The banks are preparing to do with carbon what they’ve done before: design and market derivatives contracts that will help client companies hedge their price risk over the long term. They’re also ready to sell carbon-related financial products to outside investors.”
At JP Morgan, the woman who originally invented Credit Default Swaps, Blythe Masters, is now head of the department that will trade carbon credits for the bank.
Considering the sheer force of global banking giants behind carbon trading, it’s no wonder analysts

are already predicting that the carbon market will soon dwarf all other commodities trading.  

Conclusion
Where there is smoke, there is fire. Where there is talk, there is action.
If M. King Hubbert and other early architects of Technocracy were alive today, they would be very pleased to see the seeds of their ideas on energy allocation grow to bear fruit on such a large scale. In 1933, the technology didn’t exist to implement a system of Energy Certificates. However, with today’s ever-advancing computer technology, the entire world could easily be managed on a single computer.
This article intended to show that
  • Carbon Currency is not a new idea, but has deep roots in Technocracy
  • Carbon Currency has grown from a continental proposal to a global proposal
  • It has been consistently discussed over a long period of time
  • The participants include many prominent global leaders, banks and think-tanks
  • The context of these discussions have been very consistent
  • Today’s goals for implementing Carbon Currency are virtually identical to Technocracy’s original Energy Certificates goals.
Of course, a currency is merely a means to an end. Whoever controls the currency also controls the economy and the political structure that goes with it. Inquiry into what such a system might look like will be a future topic.
Technocracy and energy-based accounting are not idle or theoretical issues. If the global elite intends for Carbon Currency to supplant national currencies, then the world economic and political systems will also be fundamentally changed forever.
What Technocracy could not achieve during the Great Depression appears to have finally found traction in the Great Recession.


Bibliography & Resources
Scott & Hubbert, Technocracy Study Course, Technocracy, Inc., 1934
Hanna, Toward a single carbon currency, New Scientist, 1995
Victor & House, A New Currency, Harvard International Review, Summer 2004
Hannah Fairfield, When Carbon Is Currency, New York Times, May 6, 2007
Network of European Technocrats website for Europe
Technocracy, Inc. – website for U.S.
Technocracy Vancouver – website for Canada

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Travel by Bamboo Trains

SUBHEAD: We are about to re-learn that steel wheels on steel rail is a far more efficient technology to pneumatic rubber tires on blacktop.
 
By Stacey Irwin on 25 January 2010 in Green Earth News -
(http://blog.greenearthbamboo.com/20100125/bamboo-marvels/travel-by-bamboo-trains-in-cambodia-true-ingenuity)

 
Image above: A bamboo railcar is ready for loading firewood and passengers. Click to see video. From (http://www.phantasrail.com/bamboo_railway.htm)  

[IB Editors note: The Kauai Energy Sustainability Plan makes the key cognitive error of extrapolating current trends into the future even as the fundamentals are changing. This plan gives us a road map into a business-as-usual future that will soon be precluded by peak oil and economic collapse. Where is the rail option? According to the Association of American Railroads, U.S railroads were able to move one ton of freight 436 miles using just one gallon of fuel. Average fuel mileage for tractor-trailer trucks has fallen to just 5.3 miles per gallon or (for 40,000 lb load) they move one ton of freight only 106 miles per gallon. There will be no highway congestion problems when gasoline is well north of $10/gallon and unemployment is at 90% due to the bankruptcy of the airlines and our tourist industry. The county and state roads will soon fall into nearly impassable conditions due to lack of expensive asphalt overlays and repairs. Grinding some roads back into gravel as a cost-saving measure will soon start to makes sense here on Kauai. We may be asking where is our bamboo train.]




Transportation plays a key role in the advancement of societies. Sumerians invented the wheel in 3500 BC to aid in the movement of heavy stone as they built their temples; Romans built a vast network of roads across their Empire so soldiers could march and conquer more efficiently; Egyptians built ships to access more markets for trade and later on, canals were constructed to give more passage. In the 1800s, America’s own Industrial Revolution was spurred on by expanded transportation including the Cumberland Road (now part of Interstate 40), the creation of the Steamboat, the opening of the Erie Canal and the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad in 1869.

In Cambodia, a country destroyed by years of civil war and the Khmer Rouge reign, transportation is a struggle. The French colonists created an intricate system of railroad lines to connect the plantations with their lucrative coffee and bananas to marketplaces. But these lines and trains fell to waste after the Khmer Rouge banned the “ordinary” people from using them. Now trains run infrequently in between the villages and the trips are long as break-downs and derailments are common. The Cambodian Government promise an upgrade to the system but little has been done. So, Cambodian villagers long ago took matters into their own hands and built the Bamboo Train.

Their choice of materials is an unusual combination of the strong and abundant bamboo that surrounds them and parts from abandoned military tanks. Described as a “bamboo slab on wheels,” these trains sprung up in the late 70s where they were controlled by a series of levers and hand-cast controls. They have since upgraded to wooden footbrakes and small motors that poured into the country, courtesy of the United Nations relief effort in the 1980s.

Simplicity is key for this train system. They use the existing railroad tracks and spurs to travel. When they meet another bamboo train on the tracks, whoever has the least passengers merely lifts their train off the track to let the other one by. They keep a sharp ear out for the infrequent freight trains that come through and when they reach their destination, they simply pick the train up and turn it around to head back.

These bamboo trains, or “Norries” as they are called by locals, provide a link between villages, a way to get produce and animals to the market, a way to get lumber to building sites and a means of income for many as rich tourists pay up to $2/day to ride them. In Cambodia, that can equal two months wages to most citizens. A local village has even turned into a “little Detroit” and builds up to 10 trains a month for sale and use. Not only are they building them, but they want to make them more beautiful to help encourage the tourists to ride them.

Necessity is the mother of invention and in a country that desperately needs (and wants) to rebuild itself, these bamboo trains are an ingenious solution.

For a firsthand and most fascinating look at bamboo train travel, check out this:
Bamboo Railway – Cambodia Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4qttp6nDts)

County roads turned to gravel

By Tim Martin on 12 June 2009 in Chicago Tribune - 

 
Image above: View of gravel road in Michigan encountered by motorcycle club near lake Superior. From (http://www.pako.us/mc/up&grr/Jul10.htm)
 









As goes Michigan’s crumbling economy, so go some once-paved rural roads now being turned back into gravel. About a quarter of the state’s county road agencies largely left out of the federal stimulus package, which focuses on highways and other major thoroughfares, say they can’t afford some costly repaving projects and have crushed up deteriorating roads. Montcalm County alone estimates it saved nearly $900,000 by converting almost 10 miles of pothole-plagued pavement into gravel this spring. Reverting to gravel on low-traffic roads has been done to some degree for years and long-term savings and maintenance costs vary widely. 

But it can be an attractive option for municipalities seeking to save money up front and it’s recently been done in a few other states, including Indiana and Vermont. More than 20 of the 83 counties in Michigan, home to the nation’s highest unemployment rate for much of the past four years, have turned rural roads back to gravel with no immediate plans to repave, according to the County Road Association of Michigan. About 50 miles have been reverted in the last three years.  

While Vice President Joe Biden was in Michigan to break ground Friday on a $68 million project along Interstate 94, the majority of county roads weren’t eligible for stimulus cash and money was tight for those that were. Montcalm converted nearly 10 miles on three primary county roads into gravel in May. Crushing the pavement and laying gravel cost about $10,000 a mile. Repaving a mile with asphalt would cost more than $100,000. The county had patched the roads in bits and pieces for years. 

But with potholes the size of steering wheels and no money for an extensive repaving, crews figured it wasn’t worth another piecemeal job. “We were throwing good money into bad roads,” said Randy Stearns, managing director of the road commission headquartered about 50 miles northeast of Grand Rapids. “It had to stop.” The new gravel on Lake Montcalm Road actually offers an easier ride than the crater-filled pavement it replaced. Motorists have stopped driving on the roads’ shoulders to avoid potholes.  

But speeds have slowed and there are complaints about chipped and cracked windshields from flying stones, said Trent Hilding, 29, a county resident whose Chevrolet truck is one of the more than 700 vehicles to travel the stretch of road on an average day. “It’s smoother than it was before, but my concern is how they will maintain it,” Hilding said. “Especially in the winter.” And while gravel roads typically are cheaper to build, they aren’t always cheaper to maintain. A study published by the Minnesota Department of Transportation in 2005, for example, found that high traffic gravel roads can cost more per mile over a several-year period than paved roads. Well-maintained pavement also is generally touted as a preferable driving surface because it is more consistent, allows higher speeds and keeps vehicles cleaner. 

But road commission officials who have chosen gravel note the pavement being replaced often is riddled with hazards. Roads are deteriorating in several states as the recession ravages tax revenues and concrete and asphalt costs escalate. Indiana’s Hancock County returned 10 miles of road sealed with a thin layer of liquid asphalt back to gravel this year, after finding a gallon of the asphalt that cost about 65 cents in 2004 now goes for about $1.85. “Prices going up – that’s what kills us,” said Joe Copeland, Hancock County’s roads superintendent. “Next year we may have to do more.” But the practice appears to be most common in Michigan. 

Heavily reliant on the struggling auto industry, the state slipped into a recession well ahead the rest of the nation. It’s April unemployment rate sat at 12.9 percent. Michigan is getting an estimated $847 million from the federal stimulus package to help roads, but even that money won’t offset years of neglect. The state Department of Transportation is expected to spend nearly $1.9 billion, including stimulus money, on road and bridge projects this fiscal year. That’s just a shade above the nearly $1.8 billion spent in 2006. Montcalm County had sought repaving money in a $10 million stimulus wish list that was whittled to $1.3 million in March. The county learned in April it would get no more than $670,000 in stimulus road money. The cash will be used this fall to improve and repave a stretch of road that the county spent more than $10,300 of its own money to grind up earlier this year. 

Stearns, of the road commission, said the county had acted out of safety concerns and several motorists called to say deteriorating pavement had wrecked tires and damaged vehicle frames. Many politicians doubt motorists would support higher taxes to fund road projects during tough economic times. But without new money, small agencies are left with few choices.  

“We don’t want to go backward, and I view this as going backward,” said Tim Hammill, managing director of the Dickinson County Road Commission in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula where 2.5 miles of paved road was converted to gravel last year. “It’s depressing.” 

 

Wanted - Two Miracles

SUBHEAD: We have reached the outside limit in every aspect of human existence.

By Guy McPherson on 25 January 2010 in Nature Bats Last - 
(http://guymcpherson.com/2010/01/wanted-two-miracles)
  
Image above: Painting of the "Rapture". A one-miracle solution to all our problems. Note the name over the church door is "Global Community Church" and that native Americans are just above the roof on their way to heaven. From (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1785873)  

The cover of William Catton’s 1980 book, Overshoot, includes the following definitions:

carrying capacity: maximum permanently supportable load. cornucopian myth: euphoric belief in limitless resources. drawdown: stealing resources from the future. cargoism: delusion that technology will always save us from overshoot: growth beyond an area’s carrying capacity, leading to crash: die-off.

Most people to whom I speak do not believe these definitions apply to us. Our species, they say, is way too clever to cause a crash in our own population.

As if the temporary access to inexpensive fossil fuels does not constitute the basis for human overshoot. As if we’re not already there, suspended like Wile E. Coyote over a chasm. As if we’re not stealing resources from the future and, in the case of industrialized nations, from every other culture on Earth. As if we are not destroying, degrading, and desecrating the living planet that supports us all. Look around. We are surrounded by cornucopians, and we’re drowning in cargoism. Delusion? Yeah, we’ve got that.

Ignore the delusions for a short time, and you’ll see we’re headed for a correction. At this late juncture in the industrial game, hoping for anything else requires a massive dose of wishful thinking.

Even a correction seems unlikely, unless by “correction” you mean “crash.”

Yet the overwhelming majority of people with whom I speak cannot wrap their minds around correction, let alone crash. Many of these folks are university faculty members. They’re supposed to be intelligent, although I’ve concluded that the average academic has below-average intellect. Many of them are ecologists, too, who have been learning about — and in many cases allegedly teaching about — limits to growth. We’ve known about limits to growth since at least 1798. Yet we’ve acted as if those limits do not apply to us. Indeed, we’ve acted as if a miracle would will save us.

Well, two miracles. First, we need a miraculous comprehensive substitute for crude oil. Then we need a miraculous removal of carbon from the atmosphere. We need the first miracle right now. We need the second within a generation.

In the two million years of the human experience on planet Earth, we haven’t had a single miracle. Now we need two.

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GMO Corn Poison

SUBHEAD: New study reveals Monsanto's GMO corn linked to organ failure in rats.

 By Katherine Goldstein on 12 January 2010 in Huffington Post -  
(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/12/monsantos-gmo-corn-linked_n_420365.html)

 
Image above: Close-up of General Mill's corn cereal Trix. The first five ingredients are GMO Whole Grain Corn, Sugar, GMO Corn Meal, GMO Corn Syrup, GMO Modified Corn Starch. From (http://www.feedmewp.com/?p=819)

In a study released by the International Journal of Biological Sciences, analyzing the effects of genetically modified foods on mammalian health, researchers found that agricultural giant Monsanto's GM corn is linked to organ damage in rats.

According to the study, which was summarized by Rady Ananda at Food Freedom, "Three varieties of Monsanto's GM corn - Mon 863, insecticide-producing Mon 810, and Roundup® herbicide-absorbing NK 603 - were approved for consumption by US, European and several other national food safety authorities."

Monsanto gathered its own crude statistical data after conducting a 90-day study, even though chronic problems can rarely be found after 90 days, and concluded that the corn was safe for consumption. The stamp of approval may have been premature, however.
In the conclusion of the IJBS study, researchers wrote:
"Effects were mostly concentrated in kidney and liver function, the two major diet detoxification organs, but in detail differed with each GM type. In addition, some effects on heart, adrenal, spleen and blood cells were also frequently noted.
As there normally exists sex differences in liver and kidney metabolism, the highly statistically significant disturbances in the function of these organs, seen between male and female rats, cannot be dismissed as biologically insignificant as has been proposed by others.
We therefore conclude that our data strongly suggests that these GM maize varieties induce a state of hepatorenal toxicity....These substances have never before been an integral part of the human or animal diet and therefore their health consequences for those who consume them, especially over long time periods are currently unknown."
Monsanto has immediately responded to the study, stating that the research is "based on faulty analytical methods and reasoning and do not call into question the safety findings for these products."

The IJBS study's author Gilles-Eric Séralini responded to the Monsanto statement on the blog, Food Freedom, "Our study contradicts Monsanto conclusions because Monsanto systematically neglects significant health effects in mammals that are different in males and females eating GMOs, or not proportional to the dose. This is a very serious mistake, dramatic for public health. This is the major conclusion revealed by our work, the only careful reanalysis of Monsanto crude statistical data."

See also: Monsanto GM Corn Causing Organ Failure In Rats Study: Everything You Need To Know
 
Three types of Monsanto genetically modified corn are under scrutiny in the wake of a new study published by the International Journal Of Biological Sciences...

In a study released by the International Journal of Biological Sciences, analyzing the effects of genetically modified foods on mammalian health, researchers found that agricultural giant Monsanto's G...
In a study released by the International Journal of Biological Sciences, analyzing the effects of genetically modified foods on mammalian health, researchers found that agricultural giant Monsanto's G...

Public's Priorities for 2010

SUBHEAD: First Economy, Jobs, Terrorism, Energy Concerns Fall, Deficit Concerns Rise, Global Warming Last. Image above: The consensus of a crowd in Hilo, Hawaii on 8/17/07 by KPUA-AM. Is it always wise to trust the crowd? From (http://www.as-found.net/tag/Group) By Staff on 25 January 2010 in People Press - (http://people-press.org/report/584/policy-priorities-2010) Summary of Findings
As Barack Obama begins his second year in office, the public’s priorities for the president and Congress remain much as they were one year ago. Strengthening the nation’s economy and improving the job situation continue to top the list. And, in the wake of the failed Christmas Day terrorist attack on a Detroit-bound airliner, defending the country from future terrorist attacks also remains a top priority.

At the same time, the public has shifted the emphasis it assigns to two major policy issues: dealing with the nation’s energy problem and reducing the budget deficit. About half (49%) say that dealing with the nation’s energy problem should be a top priority, down from 60% a year ago. At the same time, there has been a modest rise in the percentage saying that reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority, from 53% to 60%. Other policy priorities show little change from a year ago. For example, despite the ongoing debate over health care reform, about as many now call reducing health care costs a top priority (57%) as did so in early 2009 (59%). In fact, the percentage rating health care costs a top priority is lower now than it was in both 2008 (69%) and 2007 (68%). In addition, the percentage placing top priority on providing health insurance to the uninsured stands at 49%. That is little changed from a year ago and off its high of 61% in January 2001. Notably, there is now a wider partisan gap in opinion about this issue than for any of the other 20 issues in the survey: fully 75% of Democrats rate providing health insurance to the uninsured as a top priority compared with just 26% of Republicans.

More than six-in-ten Americans say securing the Social Security system (66%) and securing the Medicare system (63%) should be top priorities for Obama and Congress. About as many (65%) say that improving the educational system should be a top policy priority. For all three items, public evaluations are not significantly different than they were one year ago. In the wake of the financial crisis, the public does not place increased financial regulation among its top policy priorities. Fewer than half (45%) say stricter regulation of financial institutions should be a top priority for the president and Congress.

Budget Deficit and Energy

The priority given to reducing the budget deficit has risen seven points over the last year; in early 2009, 53% of the public called deficit reduction a top priority compared with 60% in the current survey. Both Republicans (+10 points) and Democrats (+8 points) have become more likely to say this is a top priority.

Emphasis on the budget deficit has increased since 2002, when it reached a low ebb following several years of budget surpluses (from 1998 to 2001 the question was worded “paying off the national debt”). Currently, the priority given to reducing the budget deficit is not significantly higher than it was in 2008 (58% top priority) or 1997 (60% top priority) and it lags slightly behind the high of 65% in December 1994.

In the past two years, there has been no difference between the priority Republicans and
Democrats place on reducing the budget deficit. In the current survey, a single point separatesRepublicans (61% top priority) from Democrats (60% top priority). In 2009, partisans were equally close in their views. This is a dramatic change from much of the previous decade. Throughout the Bush administration, Democrats expressed far more concern than Republicans over the deficit. The opposite was true in 1997, when Bill Clinton was in office. At that time significantly more Republicans than Democrats said reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority.

Six-in-ten independents say this should be a top priority, matching the views of Republicans and Democrats. Independents’ concern over the budget deficit has been stable over the past three years.

While concern over the budget deficit has gone up, the percentage giving priority to dealing with the nation’s energy problem has declined significantly – and this decline has taken place among Republicans, Democrats and independents alike. In the current survey, 49% rate energy a top priority, down 11 points from 60% in 2009. In the late 2000s, about six-in-ten consistently gave top priority to dealing with the nation’s energy problem. The current number is more in line with views from the early years of that decade, when the percentage that said dealing with the nation’s energy problem should be a top priority ranged from the low-to-mid 40s.

Global Warming and the Environment

Dealing with global warming ranks at the bottom of the public’s list of priorities; just 28% consider this a top priority, the lowest measure for any issue tested in the survey. Since 2007, when the item was first included on the priorities list, dealing with global warming has consistently ranked at or near the bottom. Even so, the percentage that now says addressing global warming should be a top priority has fallen 10 points from 2007, when 38% considered it a top priority. Such a low ranking is driven in part by indifference among Republicans: just 11% consider global warming a top priority, compared with 43% of Democrats and 25% of independents. Protecting the environment fares somewhat better than dealing with global warming on the public’s list of priorities, though it still falls on the lower half of the list overall. Some 44% say that protecting the environment should be a top priority for Obama and Congress, little changed from 2009.

Jobs, Economy and Terrorism Defense

Strengthening the nation’s economy, improving the job situation and defending the country from future terrorist attacks are far-and-away the top three policy priorities for the public. No other item comes within 14 points. Last year, both the economy and jobs edged ahead of defending the nation against terrorism as top priorities. In 2008, the economy and terrorism defense were virtually tied atop the priority list, while somewhat fewer people expressed concern over jobs. In 2006 and 2007, the public was more concerned about terrorism than it was about economic issues.

Improving the job situation has moved to the top of the list only recently. For much of the past decade, the percent of the public calling the job situation a top priority fluctuated in the 60s and trailed the economy. It spiked to 82% in 2009 and stands at 81% in the current survey.

There are no major differences in how Republicans, Democrats and independents prioritize strengthening the economy. Democrats are somewhat more likely than Republicans and independents to rate improving the job situation as a top priority. And Republicans are slightly more inclined than Democrats and independents to give top priority to defending the country from future terrorist attacks. Nonetheless, at least 75% of all groups give top priority to these issues, and partisan differences are generally modest when compared to differences over other policy priorities.

Dueling Partisan Agendas

Despite general partisan agreement on the importance of improving the job situation, strengthening the economy and protecting the country, large differences exist between Republicans and Democrats on other leading issues.

Republicans and Democrats take starkly different positions on the importance of providing health insurance to the uninsured; 75% of Democrats call this a top priority compared with 26% of Republicans. The 49-point gap in opinion is the largest for any of the 21 issues tested. Health insurance also was the most political divisive issue a year ago, though the gap was smaller at 38 points. In the current survey, 41% of independents call providing health insurance to the uninsured a top priority. Democrats also are far more likely than Republicans to put a top priority on dealing with global warming, the problems of poor and needy people, protecting the environment, reducing health care costs and improving the educational system. In each case, Democrats are at least 20 points more likely than Republicans to consider each of these issues top priorities. Republicans, by contrast, place more emphasis than do Democrats on strengthening the military, dealing with illegal immigration, and reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests in Washington. Here again, the gaps in opinion are relatively large, with Republicans being about 20 points more likely than Democrats to call each of these issues top priorities.

The gap between Republicans and Democrats on reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interest groups in Washington has widened this year; 45% of Republicans say this should be a top priority compared with 27% of Democrats. In 2009, Republicans (37%) were somewhat more likely than Democrats (30%) to call reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests a top priority. And in 2007, the partisan balance was reversed with more Democrats (44%) calling this a top priority than Republicans (28%). Reducing the budget deficit and reducing federal income taxes for the middle class are two points of partisan agreement. Almost the same percentage of Republicans and Democrats call these issues top priorities.

State of the Union Address

With Obama’s State of the Union address set for Jan. 27, 39% say that this year’s address will be more important than past years’ addresses, while 45% think it will be about as important as previous State of the Union addresses. Just 9% say it will be less important. At 39%, the public assigns greater importance to Obama’s address than they did to the last three State of the Union speeches given by former President George W. Bush. Nonetheless, fewer see Obama’s upcoming address as more important than said that about Bush’s State of the Union addresses in 2002 and 2003.

In January 2002, 54% said that Bush’s State of the Union was more important than in previous years. Opinion was similar a year later in January 2003. The percentage saying that Obama’s State of the Union address is more important than in previous years is much greater than it was for former President Clinton’s speeches in 1999 and 2000. About half of Democrats (54%) say that Obama’s State of the Union address will be more important than speeches in past years. Republicans and independents are less inclined to take this view: 30% of Republicans and 32% of independents say it will be more important, while pluralities of both groups say it will be about as important as past addresses (49% of independents say this, as do 47% of Republicans).

Apple iTablet Rumors

SUBHEAD:Days before Apple's Steve Jobs presents the iTablet-palooza, the rumor hits keep coming. Image above: Rumor fed prototype illustration of Apple iTablet. From (http://gizmodo.com/5335942/an-insider-on-the-apple-tablet)

By Chrias Foresman on 24 January 2010 in Ars Technica - (http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/01/days-before-itablet-palooza-the-rumor-hits-keep-comin.ars)

With just days to go before Apple is likely to unveil a long-expected tablet device, rumors continue to circulate over its details. As the buzz continues, we wanted to wrap up what we have heard recently.

You want 3G with that? Sources inside both AT&T and Verizon once again say that an Apple tablet will be compatible with not just one or the other, but both networks. The source from Verizon claims that it will work automatically with Verizon's WiFi hotspots and switch seamlessly to EVDO when out of range. Whether such a service would work the same on AT&T isn't known, but that company did boast to Fox that it has "the largest network of Wi-Fi hotspots in the country."

Further rumors peg Qualcomm as the supplier of the 3G chip for the tablet. Apple may build separate versions, one with HSPA+ chips for AT&T and most other carriers, and another with EVDO chips for Verizon and other carriers using the CDMA standard. Alternately, Apple may even include a chip recently designed by Qualcomm that's capable of connecting to either network.

Buy one dock connector, get one free. Sources for iLounge say that the tablet will have not one, but two dock connectors—one on the horizontal bottom, and one on a vertical "bottom." This would allow the device to be docked in either landscape or portrait orientation while charging. This way, the tablet could perform different functions—playing video or displaying books, for example—while set in a single charging station.

The tablet will also have generously sized antennas, if the "long rear stripe" of plastic along the back—which breaks up the device's metal casing—is any indicator. That should offer better reception than the small antennas on the iPhone, and may enable 802.11n compatibility.

Mom? Am I coming in clear? This rumor isn't necessarily new, but MacRumors seems certain that the tablet will have a front-facing camera. A recent Wall Street Journal report suggested it may be used for facial recognition, a sort of biometric auto-login, but it could easily be used for iChat videoconferencing or posting gratuitous self-portraits on Facebook.

What's in a name? "iSlate," "iTablet," "iPad." All these are possible names, and would be in line with Apple's now 12-year-old habit of adding an "i" in front of the name of its products. Macworld UK rehashes trademark office filings suggesting that Apple is trying to separate "iPad" from Fujistu, which used to make a portable POS device for retail stores. However, analysis of the filings reveal that Apple's objection is because the name is so close to "iPod."

What if Apple drops the "i" altogether, and goes with something like "Canvas?" Anything's possible.

A book is like a garden carried in the pocket... or perhaps on a tablet. It appears HarperCollins isn't the only publishing company being associated with Apple's upcoming tablet. A BusinessWeek report says that McGraw-Hill and Hachette Book Group are in talks with Apple to bring an assortment of textbooks and trade publications to the tablet in digital format. The availability of educational material could make the tablet a shoo-in for the education market.

John Wiley & Sons titles may also make an appearance as well. "We have had ongoing conversations with Apple about their interest in including educational content," Peter Balis, director of digital content at Wiley, told BusinessWeek. "We will continue to support their efforts in whatever iteration it takes next week."

At what cost, iTablet? A recent ChangeWave survey suggests that, sight unseen, 18 percent of survey respondents are likely to buy one if Apple announces one in the coming days. However, consumers would have the strongest demand for an Apple tablet at a price between $500 and $700.

RBC analyst Mike Abramsky agrees that Apple would have a hit on its hands if it can introduce the tablet at $600. His model predicts Apple would sell 5 million tablets in 2010 at that price, but sales would drop to just 1 million if the price were $800. Going off the deep end, Abramsky imagines that if Apple sells the tablet for $500, it could move as many as 10 million units in its first year.

Let's be realistic, though. The iPhone costs $600 at full retail. It seems unlikely that Apple would sell a much larger tablet at the same price. It will probably cost less than a MacBook, but chances are good that it will cost more than an iPhone. Even a top-end iPod touch costs $400, and that's without cellular radios, GPS, camera, compass, and other hardware. Apple might not include all that hardware, but a $700 or $800 price seems more likely.

What do you think? Now, it's your turn to tell us what you think. What is the rumored feature that would sell you most on an Apple tablet? And how much would you be willing to spend to get one? As a bonus, tell us what you think Apple will call its tablet device.

China Bubble Ready to Burst

SUBHEAD: Jim Chanos says China's real estate bubble is unprecedented "Dubai x 1000."

By Antonia Oprita on 25 January 2010 on CNBC.com -
(http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232)

 
Video above from CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1395110201) 

The bubble in China's real estate is unprecedented and companies exporting for the country's construction sector should be watched carefully, James Chanos, president and founder of Kynikos Associates, told CNBC Monday.

 "We are not calling for an impending crash of China or of the Shanghai stock market, but in particular the bubble that has been blown up in real estate both commercial and residential as well as other forms of fixed asset investment in china is unprecedented," Chanos said. "I do see all of the signs of a credit induced real estate bubble that i think is going to be a doozy," he added.

He said there are about 30 billion square feet of space in construction only in the commercial property sector. If the bubble were to burst, it would hurt the building materials sectors and the commodity plays in the Western world, the sectors where demand depends on the Chinese construction market, according to Chanos.

"Looking at companies, I'd be very leery of companies who are exporting materials to China to build up this construction bubble," he added. Fixed investment is forecast to reach 60 percent of Chinese gross domestic product this year, up from around 50 percent, he said.

After World War II, the Soviet Union, Germany and Japan grew very rapidly using fixed investment, but only Germany and Japan managed to use inputs more efficiently, Chanos explained.

 "In China, what we've seen is more and more fixed investment is needed for a dollar of GDP so they're getting less efficient, not more," he said. A Chinese government researched said Monday that the country's GDP was likely to grow about 9.5 percent in 2010, largely due to strong domestic consumption and corporate investment. "In the West, GDP growth is the residual of the free market…

In China it is quite a bit of a different thing, very similar to the good old Soviet Union; GDP is a planning tool and we start with the GDP target and then figure out how it is we are going to get there," Chanos said.

Bikepath still on Wailua Beach

SUBHEAD: The fact is, the proposed new alignment is NOT shifted from the beach; it would STILL be on the sands of Wailua Beach.

By  Judy Dalton on 25 January 2010 for Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2010/01/bikepath-still-on-wailua-beach.html)

 
Image above: Photo illustrating Beach and Highway constriction from Joan Conroe's article mentioned below.

If it's not clear to you where the new alignment for the bike path is proposed to be located, you're not the only one. Saturday's (1/16) TGI headline of "Mayor Shifting Path from Beach to Highway" (http://kauaiworld.com/articles/2010/01/16/news/kauai_news/doc4b516af0bf44d961795100.txt) was misleading because of the county's press release was misleading, stating, "the proposed alignment for the Wailua Beach section will be shifted from the beach to the right-of-way on the makai (seaward) side of Kuhio Highway." The fact is, the proposed alignment is NOT shifted from the beach; it would STILL be on the sands of Wailua Beach.

The latest version of the bike path would put a 10 feet wide concrete path, 18" deep directly on top of the sand dunes starting from the sandy shoulder of the highwy going makai. Trees and vegetation cover the sand dunes here, vital to the beach's ability to protect itself against erosion.

Please read journalist Joan Conrow's insightful article "Every Picture Tells a Story" (http://kauaieclectic.blogspot.com/2010/01/musings-every-picture-tells-story.html). Every picture tells a story, so after seeing this one, and then taking my own visit, with tape measure in hand, to Wailua Beach yesterday, it appears that Mayor Carvalho didn’t actually “get smart” and move the bike path off the beach, as I asserted in my last post, but “got slick” instead.

 It is important to send a statement to the county today (1/25) asking them to please keep the path off the beach. Email comments to: csimao@kauai.gov by 4:30pm Jan 25. There's a very viable option to keeping if off the beach - on the scenic, peaceful, and safe existing canal road behind Coco Palms.

Since it's one of 3 choices already included in the Environmental Assessment, there should be no delay to the overall project and the price would be lower than beach alternate routes. (The beach route connects to the canal route, crossing the highway near Kintaro's by creating a new traffic light.) By choosing the alternate mauka route the beach would be spared from development and protected.

Although the county press release states that “the proposed alignment for the Wailua Beach section will be shifted from the beach to the right-of-way on the makai side of Kuhio Highway,” it’s quite clear from this photo and my own observation that the path won’t actually run along the shoulder of the road, as most assumed and The Garden Island headline proclaimed. Yes, the route is a little bit farther mauka (inland) than the boardwalk was originally planned, but it’s still on the beach. In fact, now it’s right on the dunes, where most burials traditionally are.

If you have any doubt that’s the beach, let’s remember that the rock wall was built to keep ocean debris from washing onto the road. So nice try Bernard, right down to making the announcement on a Friday afternoon prior to a three-day weekend the traditional time for putting a spin on news you don’t want followed too closely.

Andy Parx, in his inimitable style, nails it with the title of his blog "Another Steaming Pile on the Bike Path" (http://parxnewsdaily.blogspot.com/2010/01/another-steaming-pile-on-bike-path.html)

Swing Time

SUBHEAD: We should be turning our efforts and our remaining resources toward the task of becoming a differently-organized, finer-scaled society.

By James Kunstler on 25 January 2010 in Kunstler.com - 
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/01/-a-lot-of-things.html)

 
Image above: Collage by Juan Wilson from "Swing Time" of Ginger Rogers lecturing Barack Obama. Source (http://www.doctormacro1.info/Movie%20Star%20Pages/Astaire,%20Fred-NRFPT.htm)  

A lot of things started shaking loose last week, and not just in Haiti. The Scott Brown senate seat victory in Massachussetts shook loose a Democratic "super-majority" that only had to be constructed because the US Senate stupidly turned the filibuster into standard operating procedure where it once was a seldom-used procedural dodge employed strictly by villains seeking to paralyze the chamber. Thanks to the new system, the senate is now in a continual state of paralysis.

The election in Massachusetts prompted President Obama to understand that the voters were pissed off -- among other things -- about the special privileges of banks and bankers, after a year of force-feeding them taxpayer money like Strasbourg geese. So he outlined a bank discipline offensive that sounded an awful lot like the return of the Glass-Steagall Act -- which several of his top advisors (Summers, Rubin...) had a direct hand in repealing a decade ago -- only without proposing to reinstate Glass Steagall. Go figure. Note: for all the bluster, Mr. Obama did not mention activating the moribund Department of Justice, where Attorney General Eric Holder has been in a coma all year. Somebody ought to inform the president that he has an entire criminal investigation division there, and that a little brisk leadership could gin them up into action as they were following the Savings and Loan scandals of the 1980s (when Republicans were in power, by the way).

Now, one big question is how come the president waited until after the Massachusetts election debacle to man up with the banks? Did it only just come to him that they were looting the nation -- with government assistance? Pretty obviously nobody will believe that Mr. Obama is sincere about reigning in fraud-ridden Wall Street until he issues pink slips to the Goldman Sachs alumni who have been running him like a radio-controlled monster truck: Summers, Geithner, Rubin, et al. There was a hint of that last week, when the president made his statement with "the big guy," Paul Volker, standing right behind him. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner have both claimed more than once that they are "not regulators." That must partly explain the absence of meaningful regulation all year. My guess is that Geithner is about to be tossed overboard like a feculent weiner, and that the president is praying for the senate to vote against Bernanke's reconfirmation this week.

The underlying reality is that the financial sector of the economy has got to shrink. It ballooned from about five percent of the US economy to about 22 percent over the last two decades -- mainly as a way to compensate for our declining real productive activity as we off-shored and outsourced and disassembled US industrial capacity. Capitalism only works when it operates in the service of productive activity. Trading mere paper certificates (or digital simulacra of them) in ever more "innovative" (i.e. abstract and incomprehensible) ways is not a substitute for making goods. These practices reached such a grotesque level of unreality that they eventually poisoned what remained of our economic prospects. Now that their operations have been revealed as perfidious, these institutions have to be sliced and diced and, in some cases, punished, perhaps with extinction. It will happen anyway. The only question is whether civilian leadership can guide the process within the rule of law. In the meantime, the derivatives rackets that made up so much of the fraud -- especially the trillions of dollars vested in credit default swaps contracts -- are ticking out there like bombs placed by madmen, and may bring down the entire global money system before an orderly downsizing of finance can occur.

The larger underlying reality is that the United States as an entire, integral organism, has got to contract, downscale, and reorganize. The mandates of energy resource reality demand it. We can't maintain our way of life at its current scale and we have to severely rearrange and rebuild the infrastructure of it if we expect to continue being civilized. We have to get the hell out of suburbia, shrink our hypertrophic metroplexes, re-activate our small towns and small cities, reorganize the way we grow our food, phase out the big box retail (and phase in the rehabilitated Main Streets), start making some of our own household goods, and hook up the far-flung reaches of this continental nation with a public transit system probably in the form of railroads. By the way, there are plenty of "jobs" in this process, only not the kind of work we've been used to... sitting in cubicles or assigning tanning booths.

No amount of wishing for techno rescue remedies, or techno-triumphal fantasies, will overcome this basic reality. This is change you have to believe in whether you like it or not. Most of America doesn't like it and doesn't want to think about it and is doing everything possible to prop up the old arrangements. Bailing out the banks is just a lame attempt to keep banking oversized. Bailing out the automobile companies was just a way to avoid the recognition that Happy Motoring will soon be over. Bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was just a way to avoid understanding that suburbia is finished. The "green economy" that so many people idly blather about -- imagining that it will just mean running WalMart by other means than oil -- is actually an economy of awesome stringency. It's nothing like they imagine. It's a world made by hand.

We should be turning our efforts and our remaining resources toward the task of becoming that differently-organized, finer-scaled society. The money that went into propping up the automobile companies could have been used to rebuild the entire railroad system between Boston and the Great Lakes, and the capital squandered on AIG and its offshoot claimants could have rebuilt everything else the rest of the way to Seattle. Is it really so hard to imagine what history requires of you?


Apparently so. That's why movements like Naziism start. If there ever was another nation beautifully primed for an explosion of deadly irrational politics, it's us. And it looks to me as if that's exactly what we're going to get -- especially now that the Supreme Court has made it possible for corporations to buy elections lock, stock, and barrel. I hope our constitutional law professor president turns his attention to proposing a legislative act that will sharply reign in the putative "personhood" prerogatives of corporations.

They are relatively new entities in legal history, and their supposed "rights," duties, obligations, and limits have been regularly subject to re-definition over the past hundred years. There's no reason to believe that the court's current ideas are definitive. In fact, they are completely crazy -- given the fact that the fundamental character of corporations is sociopathic, insofar as their only express allegiance is to their shareholders, meaning they are devoid of any sense of the public interest, meaning they are unfit to participate in electoral politics.

Storm Brews Over Glacier Blunder

SUBHEAD: We change our world on a daily basis, it would be foolish for us to think we have not changed the pattern flow of the system.

By Ben Cubby on 25 January 2010 in Sydney Morning Herald - 
(http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/storm-brews-over-glacier-blunder-20100124-mslv.html)

 
Image above: Frozen lake on Rongphu Glacier with Mount Everest hidden by clouds. From (http://www.traveladventures.org/continents/asia/mount-everest-north-face12.shtml) 

A Mistake about the timing of melting glaciers has snowballed into an unprecedented assault on the credibility of climate science, after revelations that an author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report knew that one passage was wrong but included it anyway.

Pressure is now mounting on the head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, with further elements of the IPCC's report being brought into question and the separate announcement of a government inquiry into climate data in Britain.

As well as the glacier mistake, the IPCC said at the weekend that it would re-examine a passage about the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events such as hurricanes in its 2007 report.

Scientists who uncovered the error about the timing of melting glaciers in the Himalayas told the Herald that the conclusions of the report are right, and that fixing such errors are a routine part of the scientific process.

An Australian lead author of the report, Professor Andy Pitman, also said the mistake did not affect the veracity of the UN body's conclusions. He said that scientists were being subjected to ''an orchestrated campaign that's exactly the same as that was used by the smoking lobby to try and discredit science''.

The author of the offending passage in the IPCC's working group report, Dr Murari Lal, has conceded that the claim that Himalayan glaciers could melt by 2035 is not supported by peer-reviewed science, but said he included it anyway.

''It related to several countries in this region and their water sources,'' he was quoted as saying in Britain's Daily Mail newspaper. ''We thought that if we can highlight it, it will impact policymakers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action. It had importance for the region, so we thought we should put it in.''

Dr Lal's passage ignored the IPCC's guidelines on using peer-reviewed science as a basis for its assertions, and the UN body conceded last week that it should have been edited out of its working group report.

However, the inaccurate passage was not included in the ''summary for policymakers'' section of the report which forms the basis of government responses to climate change.

As the Herald revealed on Saturday, the flaw was highlighted during the review process in August 2006 and had been shown to be wrong several times before and since the report's publication.

One of the expert reviewers who picked up the error, Dr Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University in Britain, said her own research had suggested the claim was wrong.

Dr Fowler, a hydroclimatologist, pointed out that while winters in the western Himalayas were warmer, summers had been cooler in recent years, meaning that some glaciers in the west have been growing, not receding like others around the world.

Dr Fowler said the scale of the task of putting the report together meant that no one editor could be an expert on every aspect of each chapter. ''Given the size of literature that needs to be read to put the IPCC report together though, I am sure that occasional errors may occur,'' she told the Herald. ''The good thing is that it has been spotted and will now be put right. It does not mean that all the other conclusions of the IPCC report are wrong.''

A British parliamentary committee will examine the theft of data and emails from the University of East Anglia last year and examine the implications for scientific research.

Professor Pitman joined other scientists from within and outside the IPCC to say that the errors in the 2007 report should be seen in context.

''There are 1600 pages in the working group reports and after two years there are two paragraphs which have been found to have errors in them. By any standard these are remarkably accurate documents, but I don't believe anyone ever said they were perfect. The point of research is that we pick up errors like this.''

.

Kauai Future 2020 - Part 2

SUBHEAD: What role will tourism play on Kauai? The consensus is a walk-on or cameo at best.  

 By Jon Letman on 18 January 2010 in The Hawaii Independent - 
(http://thehawaiiindependent.com/local/read/kauai/seeing-2020-part-ii-what-role-will-tourism-play-in-hawaiis-future)

[ IB Editor's note: The following is part two of a three-part series that examines opportunities and challenges confronting Kauai in the new decade. Read part one here.]
 
Image above: Like the slippery steps at Puu Poa on Kauai's north shore, some ask if the future of tourism won't follow the same path. Others are more optimistic that the Island's allure will continue to draw visitors long into the future. All photos by Jon Letman.

 If tourism has been the central pillar that has supported Hawaii’s economy for the last half century, the question of what role it will play in the coming decade cannot be ignored. Between 2000 and 2010, Kauai and the rest of the state saw how external forces like terrorism in New York, disease in Hong Kong, a war in Iraq, or global economics and energy costs can dramatically and immediately impact tourism and the entire island’s economy.

Internal events like the cessation of cruise ship arrivals, collapse of airlines and extreme weather events like the severe rains of 2006, and Kaloko Dam failure also affected the tourism-based economy. Roller coaster-like boom and bust development trends, shortages in rental cars, and the ongoing debate about hotel development and how much to limit vacation rental accommodation also impacted Kauai in the last 10 years and will almost certainly continue to do so in the new decade.
The future of tourism remains a big question mark. Can tourism rebound? If so, when? Some ask if it should come back at all. Kapaa-based green economist Ken Stokes of the Kauaian Institute asks not when the tourists will be back, but which ones will return.

“Some of the best futurists at UH presented four scenarios,” Stokes says. “In these, not a single one indicated anything like mass tourism in the ten to twenty year horizon.”

 
The neglected ruins of the Coco Palms Resort have remained standing in Wailua, Kauai since Hurricane Iniki in 1992. More recently, a large proportion of Kauai’s accommodation has turned to timeshare units. Will Coco Palms still be there in 2020?

Stokes cites what he calls a “morality and consciousness,” which he believes will make some people think twice about continuing to fly great distances to Hawaii.

“Your global share of carbon output is the equivalent to one airplane trip to the West Coast,” Stokes says. “That’s for an entire lifetime.”

The upper tier of the travel market is fairly solid, Stokes says, but he expects mass tourism to “fall away” as the overall contribution of tourism to the island economy declines.

Sue Kanoho, executive director of the Kauai Visitors Bureau, looks at the future of tourism on Kauai from another perspective. She sees much of Kauai’s market the result of available accommodation.
“If properties shift to fractional or timeshare units, those are the kind of visitors we get. First time visitors tend to stay in hotels,” Kanoho says, referring to the large number of return visitors to Kauai.

The type of accommodation offered, the condition and capacity of harbors and airports, and the level at which Kauai can comfortably welcome visitors will continue to be key considerations in the decade ahead, says Kanoho.

“On an island, it’s important to acknowledge the capacity for certain areas,” she says. Kanoho refers to talk of the Department of Land and Natural Resources limiting the number of permits issued in order to preserve environmentally delicate places, just as camping permits are already limited now.

“We may be a destination that requires planning a vacation further in advance,” Kanoho says, pointing out that advance planning is part of having a destination where the quality of experience is more important than the quantity.

 
Community Farm at Kauai Community College, Puhi, Kauai. Relocalization advocates say Kauai needs to become more food-independent if it is to avoid potential severe shortages.

“Kauai is not a fast food drive-thru,” Kanoho says.
She concedes that other destinations like Mexico or the Caribbean may be closer, quicker, and cheaper to the mainland than Kauai, but says the quality and uniqueness of Kauai will remain a draw for those willing and able to spend for tropical vacations.

“Everyone has their breaking point. When you hit $1,000 or $1,200 round-trip airfare (to Kauai), some people will consider other destinations,” Kanoho says.

In the coming decade Kanoho doesn’t foresee Kauai becoming a solely exclusive destination that only serves the high-end market.

“That’s just not who we are and I don’t think that’s what people want,” she says. Kanoho expects Kauai will remain a laid-back, rural, natural destination.

Recognizing that a few years ago there was a palpable tension as increasing numbers of people on Kauai felt the island was being lost to development, Kanoho says there have been concerted efforts to respond positively to those concerns and that the island is no longer on a “slippery downward slope.”

“We need to ask Kauai, ‘what does she want to be when she grows up?’ That’s not just a KVB question, but one for the leaders and people of Kauai.”

Visitor industry trends like “voluntourism,” growth in both Korean and Chinese travel markets, untapped potential in the Japanese market, and a greater emphasis and commitment to sustainable and green practices in the tourism sector are all likely to become even more prominent in the coming decade, Kanoho says. But she cautions: “Whatever your goals might be ten years out, in less than a day an event like September 11 or an airline closing suddenly can change your whole world.”

Adam Asquith, a taro farmer and managing director for Kauai Farm Fuels, a biodiesel manufacturer in Hanapepe, says that big changes are coming to Kauai—you can bet on it. Asquith envisions a Kauai 10 years from now that is subject to the effects of global fuel shortages. He imagines $200 a barrel oil making travel to Kauai unaffordable for all but the wealthiest travelers.

Visitor arrivals on Kauai could be half that of 2010, he says, with many hotels closed and those that remain offering free vehicles and fuel as a gimmick to attract occupants. $10-per-gallon gasoline would mean that bicycles would be as common as cars on the road and the horse would return as a viable means of transportation.

 
Scrap piles of used appliances and junked cars against the scenic backdrop of Kauai. With Hawaii’s heavy reliance on imported goods, food, and fuel, some believe our current lifestyle is reaching its limit. 

By 2020, Asquith says many people on Kauai will have installed wind, photovoltaic, or battery systems in order to gain some energy independence as electricity rates rise to more than a dollar per kilowatt hour. He envisions 20 percent unemployment, frequent blackouts, and people returning to hunting and fishing for sustenance, rather than recreation.

On the bright side, Asquith expects Kauai in 2020 to be a place where neighborhood and farming communities have turned to small, independent energy grid systems or locally produced plant oil (kukui, coconut), ethanol, and wood gas. Asquith says surf breaks will be uncrowded, traffic non-existent and nearly everyone will maintain a garden or farm.

According to Asquith, 10 years from now, “parties will be more frequent, larger and last longer. We will thrive in household economies that would have been considered abject poverty in 2010, but kupuna will remark that Kauai is now a lot like it was when they were growing up.” In 2020, Asquith says, “we will have rediscovered what our kupuna had—a sense of place.”

Part III, the final installment in this three-part series, will examine possible changes to Kauai’s natural environment and communities in the new decade.  

See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Kauai Future 2020 - Part 1 1/11/10
Ea O Ka Aina: Kauai Future 2020 - Part 3 1/25/10
Ea O Ka Aina: Sustainability 2010-2020 1/8/10
Island Breath: Introduction Kauai 2007-2050 12/6/06
Island Breath: Part 2 Kauai 2007-2029 12/6/06