Image above: "Winter Solstice" by donotalos at photobucket.
From http://media.photobucket.com/image/winter%20solstice/donnotalos/WinterSolstice.jpg
By Linda Pascatore on 21 December 2009 -
This is the darkest Solstice in my memory. It truly feels like the dark night of the soul for our nation, if not our world.
The Winter Solstice, on December 21st, is the shortest day and longest night of the year. It has been celebrated for thousands of years, in many cultures. The Solstice is the turning point of the year, and symbolizes the change from darkness and death towards light and life.
Although I am generally an optimistic person, this has been the most overwhelmingly depressing time that I have experienced. Global warming looms as the ultimate disaster, but the COP 15 has failed to provide any viable agreement towards a solution. Our great "Hope for Change", Barack Obama, has been horribly disappointing: Guantanamo remains open, we are at war on two fronts, civil rights continue to erode, and Corporate Imperialism rules.
A year ago our economy crashed. I thought that Americans would wake up to reality. We had been living in an inflated consumer society that no longer produced anything useful. I thought that the crash, coupled with high oil prices, would cause some real changes in our society, and drive us to a simpler, greener life style. But the non-negotiable American lifestyle was not so easily put aside. Most people appear to be in some kind of serious denial about global warming, our economic situation, and the state of the world in general.
So, where is the Glimmer of Hope? I believe that it is within us. Some of us realize the state of our world. Some are beginning to change our lives, both for our good, and that of the planet. They are trying to reduce our mindless consumerism and our dependence on automobiles, and moving towards sustainability. More are beginning to grow their own food - naturally and organically - and to use renewable energy sources. Some are actually making useful things again.
Now, if you are one of the people striving to make these changes, you may often feel crazy and alone. Most people just don't understand, or even want to know, what you are talking about. This attitude of heavy denial is both frustrating and depressing. It is important to find like minded people to connect and work with towards a better future.
The numbers of people who are waking up to the need to build a new sustainable world are growing. There is a worldwide Transition Town movement; renewable energy sources are being developed; and organic gardening is thriving. Here on Kauai there is a groundswell of organic gardening; classes at KCC, budding community gardens, and new farmer's markets opening.
So, after this dark Solstice Night, we can see a faint glimmer of hope; an uprising of Gaia Consciousness. The realization of our connectedness with the web of life could eventually swell to a movement to save ourselves and our Mother Earth.
Wishing you a Hopeful Solstice, a Merry Christmas, and a Happy and Sustainable New Year.
The Darkest Night
SUBHEAD: Is there a Glimmer of Hope this Winter Solstice?
Image above: "Winter Solstice" by donotalos at photobucket.
From http://media.photobucket.com/image/winter%20solstice/donnotalos/WinterSolstice.jpg
By Linda Pascatore on 21 December 2009 -
This is the darkest Solstice in my memory. It truly feels like the dark night of the soul for our nation, if not our world.
The Winter Solstice, on December 21st, is the shortest day and longest night of the year. It has been celebrated for thousands of years, in many cultures. The Solstice is the turning point of the year, and symbolizes the change from darkness and death towards light and life.
Although I am generally an optimistic person, this has been the most overwhelmingly depressing time that I have experienced. Global warming looms as the ultimate disaster, but the COP 15 has failed to provide any viable agreement towards a solution. Our great "Hope for Change", Barack Obama, has been horribly disappointing: Guantanamo remains open, we are at war on two fronts, civil rights continue to erode, and Corporate Imperialism rules.
A year ago our economy crashed. I thought that Americans would wake up to reality. We had been living in an inflated consumer society that no longer produced anything useful. I thought that the crash, coupled with high oil prices, would cause some real changes in our society, and drive us to a simpler, greener life style. But the non-negotiable American lifestyle was not so easily put aside. Most people appear to be in some kind of serious denial about global warming, our economic situation, and the state of the world in general.
So, where is the Glimmer of Hope? I believe that it is within us. Some of us realize the state of our world. Some are beginning to change our lives, both for our good, and that of the planet. They are trying to reduce our mindless consumerism and our dependence on automobiles, and moving towards sustainability. More are beginning to grow their own food - naturally and organically - and to use renewable energy sources. Some are actually making useful things again.
Now, if you are one of the people striving to make these changes, you may often feel crazy and alone. Most people just don't understand, or even want to know, what you are talking about. This attitude of heavy denial is both frustrating and depressing. It is important to find like minded people to connect and work with towards a better future.
The numbers of people who are waking up to the need to build a new sustainable world are growing. There is a worldwide Transition Town movement; renewable energy sources are being developed; and organic gardening is thriving. Here on Kauai there is a groundswell of organic gardening; classes at KCC, budding community gardens, and new farmer's markets opening.
So, after this dark Solstice Night, we can see a faint glimmer of hope; an uprising of Gaia Consciousness. The realization of our connectedness with the web of life could eventually swell to a movement to save ourselves and our Mother Earth.
Wishing you a Hopeful Solstice, a Merry Christmas, and a Happy and Sustainable New Year.
Image above: "Winter Solstice" by donotalos at photobucket.
From http://media.photobucket.com/image/winter%20solstice/donnotalos/WinterSolstice.jpg
By Linda Pascatore on 21 December 2009 -
This is the darkest Solstice in my memory. It truly feels like the dark night of the soul for our nation, if not our world.
The Winter Solstice, on December 21st, is the shortest day and longest night of the year. It has been celebrated for thousands of years, in many cultures. The Solstice is the turning point of the year, and symbolizes the change from darkness and death towards light and life.
Although I am generally an optimistic person, this has been the most overwhelmingly depressing time that I have experienced. Global warming looms as the ultimate disaster, but the COP 15 has failed to provide any viable agreement towards a solution. Our great "Hope for Change", Barack Obama, has been horribly disappointing: Guantanamo remains open, we are at war on two fronts, civil rights continue to erode, and Corporate Imperialism rules.
A year ago our economy crashed. I thought that Americans would wake up to reality. We had been living in an inflated consumer society that no longer produced anything useful. I thought that the crash, coupled with high oil prices, would cause some real changes in our society, and drive us to a simpler, greener life style. But the non-negotiable American lifestyle was not so easily put aside. Most people appear to be in some kind of serious denial about global warming, our economic situation, and the state of the world in general.
So, where is the Glimmer of Hope? I believe that it is within us. Some of us realize the state of our world. Some are beginning to change our lives, both for our good, and that of the planet. They are trying to reduce our mindless consumerism and our dependence on automobiles, and moving towards sustainability. More are beginning to grow their own food - naturally and organically - and to use renewable energy sources. Some are actually making useful things again.
Now, if you are one of the people striving to make these changes, you may often feel crazy and alone. Most people just don't understand, or even want to know, what you are talking about. This attitude of heavy denial is both frustrating and depressing. It is important to find like minded people to connect and work with towards a better future.
The numbers of people who are waking up to the need to build a new sustainable world are growing. There is a worldwide Transition Town movement; renewable energy sources are being developed; and organic gardening is thriving. Here on Kauai there is a groundswell of organic gardening; classes at KCC, budding community gardens, and new farmer's markets opening.
So, after this dark Solstice Night, we can see a faint glimmer of hope; an uprising of Gaia Consciousness. The realization of our connectedness with the web of life could eventually swell to a movement to save ourselves and our Mother Earth.
Wishing you a Hopeful Solstice, a Merry Christmas, and a Happy and Sustainable New Year.
Kauai Aina Mapping
SUBHEAD: Work continues on mapping land management areas on Kauai using watersheds and traditional ahupuaa and moku boundaries.
[IB Editor's Note: The maps and GoogleEarth model in this article has been updated on 29 January 2010. For latest maps for all Hawaiian islands see (http://www.islandbreath.org/mokupuni/mokupuni.html).
Image above: Kauai Moku-Ahupuaa Map Revision K-1 1/27/10. Click on it to enlarge. © 2010 by IslandBreath.org. All rights reserved.
By Juan Wilson on 21 December 2009 (updated on 1/29/10) -
It has been my position for the last twenty years that bio-regionalism is the foundation of sustainability. The Hawaiians were many centuries ahead of the Transition Town, Permaculture and Community Garden movements we see today. Their land management techniques spanned a millennium and could still be used today to balance our load on the island.
In early 2007 we (Jonathan Jay and I) began work on determining what might be areas of Kauai that could become manageable township areas to better govern the island. We looked at the traditional Hawaiian moku (regional divisions) as a guide. This work was combined with a presentation at the November 2007 LEGS Sustainability conference in Lihue. That presentation included a sustainability Land Use Plan that split exisitn Agricultural land use designation in two.
The makai half to become Rural land and the mauka half to become a new catagory Forest. Forest would be similar to Conservation, but allow replacement level harvesting of grew in the zone. It would be similar in some ways to Rural land but not allow for housing or permanent settlement.
See: Island Breath: Kauai Sustainability Land Use Plan 11/11/07
Early in 2008 we became aware of the formation of the Aha Kiole Council. This group of Hawaiian people was tasked with bringing the host culture's knowledge of Hawaiian land management to the State of Hawaii. Our efforts in behalf of the Aha Kiole Council was to work with them to develop a map of traditional moku and ahupuaa (roughly watersheds).
See: Island Breath: Kauai Moku District Meeting 3/11/08
A preliminary map was produced and distributed in December of 2008 that was based on information gathered through the year. This map was adopted by the Aha Kiole Council as the ahupuaa and moku divisions of Kauai and was published as part of the council's submission of regional management areas.
See: Island Breath: Moku-Ahupuaa Divisions of Kauai 12/2/08
The map produced at that time had the boundaries of four ahupuaa still unresolved. Over the last year these boundaries have been identified and all areas have been refined. The tool for upgrading the area boundaries was the use GoogleEarth with 3D topography and aerial orthophotography. We have recently published a link to our GoogleEarth efforts on this website and have updated it as work progressed.
See: Ea O ka Aina: Kauai on GoogleEarth 12/6/09
This article provides a "paper" map version of our latest Hawaiian traditional boundaries of Kauai. The format is set for a convenient letter size printout (8.5" x 11"). A PNG and PDF version are available.
See: Island Breath: Kauai Aina K-1 Revision 3.0.1 (4.7 mb .PNG)
Island Breath: Kauai Aina K-1 Revision 3.0.1 (17.0 mb .PDF) Click on the link below to gret the the ZIP file for loading Kauai ahupuaa into GoogleEarth: (100127KauaiAinaLink.zip). This map and the GoogleEarth map will continued to be adjusted as the work goes on.
Please contribute what you can to this project with you knowledge of the island. For access to the GoogleEarth map through a network server go to address below and download ZIP file with the link:
Ea O Ka Aina: Network Link to Kauai Aina 12/5/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Kauai on GoogleEarth 12/5/09
Moku Areas:
Mana = 62.2 sq mi Kona = 190.5 sq mi Puna = 138.9 sq mi Koolau = 33.2 sq mi Halelea = 90.8 sq mi Napali = 31.9 sq mi Total = 555.5 sq mi
Usage:
Non-commercial use of this information is permitted if you credit those who organized and developed it. Credits for Moku and Ahupuaa of the island of Kauai on GoogleEarth.
These Kauai land identifications were determined and converted into GoogleEarth KMZ format by: Juan Wilson - Architect/Planner
with the assistance of:
Jonathan Jay - Designer
in association with:
The Aha Kiole Council of Hawaii
and contributions from:
The Kauaian Institute
as well as assistance from:
The Kauai Historical Socieity
Criteria:
The Moku divisions are derived from Kalama Map (1837), applied over Hawai`i DBEDT GIS watershed data. The Ahupua`a divisions are based on traditional descriptions of location, with boundaries modified to follow watershed ridges and streams/rivers from DBEDT data. Where conflicts arose between traditional descriptions, DBEDT data and USGS 7.5ยบ topological maps, we used Kauai Historical Society documents and coordination with GoogleEarth imaging and 3D countouring data.
Note:
Area names are written in standard ASCII text without traditional Hawaiian accent marks. Area measurements and perimeter lengths are only approximations and will be updated. Users are responsible themselves for verifying the information in this file. Streams and rivers shown are from HI DBEDT GIS database online.
All rights reserved: © 2007-2010 by www.IslandBreath.org Revision 3.0.1 on 27 January 2010
.
[IB Editor's Note: The maps and GoogleEarth model in this article has been updated on 29 January 2010. For latest maps for all Hawaiian islands see (http://www.islandbreath.org/mokupuni/mokupuni.html).
Image above: Kauai Moku-Ahupuaa Map Revision K-1 1/27/10. Click on it to enlarge. © 2010 by IslandBreath.org. All rights reserved.
By Juan Wilson on 21 December 2009 (updated on 1/29/10) -
It has been my position for the last twenty years that bio-regionalism is the foundation of sustainability. The Hawaiians were many centuries ahead of the Transition Town, Permaculture and Community Garden movements we see today. Their land management techniques spanned a millennium and could still be used today to balance our load on the island.
In early 2007 we (Jonathan Jay and I) began work on determining what might be areas of Kauai that could become manageable township areas to better govern the island. We looked at the traditional Hawaiian moku (regional divisions) as a guide. This work was combined with a presentation at the November 2007 LEGS Sustainability conference in Lihue. That presentation included a sustainability Land Use Plan that split exisitn Agricultural land use designation in two.
The makai half to become Rural land and the mauka half to become a new catagory Forest. Forest would be similar to Conservation, but allow replacement level harvesting of grew in the zone. It would be similar in some ways to Rural land but not allow for housing or permanent settlement.
See: Island Breath: Kauai Sustainability Land Use Plan 11/11/07
Early in 2008 we became aware of the formation of the Aha Kiole Council. This group of Hawaiian people was tasked with bringing the host culture's knowledge of Hawaiian land management to the State of Hawaii. Our efforts in behalf of the Aha Kiole Council was to work with them to develop a map of traditional moku and ahupuaa (roughly watersheds).
See: Island Breath: Kauai Moku District Meeting 3/11/08
A preliminary map was produced and distributed in December of 2008 that was based on information gathered through the year. This map was adopted by the Aha Kiole Council as the ahupuaa and moku divisions of Kauai and was published as part of the council's submission of regional management areas.
See: Island Breath: Moku-Ahupuaa Divisions of Kauai 12/2/08
The map produced at that time had the boundaries of four ahupuaa still unresolved. Over the last year these boundaries have been identified and all areas have been refined. The tool for upgrading the area boundaries was the use GoogleEarth with 3D topography and aerial orthophotography. We have recently published a link to our GoogleEarth efforts on this website and have updated it as work progressed.
See: Ea O ka Aina: Kauai on GoogleEarth 12/6/09
This article provides a "paper" map version of our latest Hawaiian traditional boundaries of Kauai. The format is set for a convenient letter size printout (8.5" x 11"). A PNG and PDF version are available.
See: Island Breath: Kauai Aina K-1 Revision 3.0.1 (4.7 mb .PNG)
Island Breath: Kauai Aina K-1 Revision 3.0.1 (17.0 mb .PDF) Click on the link below to gret the the ZIP file for loading Kauai ahupuaa into GoogleEarth: (100127KauaiAinaLink.zip). This map and the GoogleEarth map will continued to be adjusted as the work goes on.
Please contribute what you can to this project with you knowledge of the island. For access to the GoogleEarth map through a network server go to address below and download ZIP file with the link:
Ea O Ka Aina: Network Link to Kauai Aina 12/5/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Kauai on GoogleEarth 12/5/09
Moku Areas:
Mana = 62.2 sq mi Kona = 190.5 sq mi Puna = 138.9 sq mi Koolau = 33.2 sq mi Halelea = 90.8 sq mi Napali = 31.9 sq mi Total = 555.5 sq mi
Usage:
Non-commercial use of this information is permitted if you credit those who organized and developed it. Credits for Moku and Ahupuaa of the island of Kauai on GoogleEarth.
These Kauai land identifications were determined and converted into GoogleEarth KMZ format by: Juan Wilson - Architect/Planner
with the assistance of:
Jonathan Jay - Designer
in association with:
The Aha Kiole Council of Hawaii
and contributions from:
The Kauaian Institute
as well as assistance from:
The Kauai Historical Socieity
Criteria:
The Moku divisions are derived from Kalama Map (1837), applied over Hawai`i DBEDT GIS watershed data. The Ahupua`a divisions are based on traditional descriptions of location, with boundaries modified to follow watershed ridges and streams/rivers from DBEDT data. Where conflicts arose between traditional descriptions, DBEDT data and USGS 7.5ยบ topological maps, we used Kauai Historical Society documents and coordination with GoogleEarth imaging and 3D countouring data.
Note:
Area names are written in standard ASCII text without traditional Hawaiian accent marks. Area measurements and perimeter lengths are only approximations and will be updated. Users are responsible themselves for verifying the information in this file. Streams and rivers shown are from HI DBEDT GIS database online.
All rights reserved: © 2007-2010 by www.IslandBreath.org Revision 3.0.1 on 27 January 2010
.
Blue Christmas
SUBHEAD: The blue aliens of Avatar are showing us hope for our world this Christmas.
Image above: Detail of still from James Cameron's Avatar. US Marine turned indigenous alien with native lover. From http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=330833
[Editor's Note: Go see this movie this Christmas season, even if you normally do not like science fiction or fantasy. Cameron is in touch with the ideas of The Cosmic Serpent: DNA and the origins of Knowledge by Jeremy Narby. Avatar is a reason to have hope for this world.]
By James Kunstler on 21 December 2009 in www.kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/blue-christmas.html)
As the end-credits rolled for James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, the audience burst into rowdy applause. It seemed to me that they were applauding the sheer computerized dazzlement of the show -- but in the story itself they had just watched the US suffer a humiliating defeat on a distant planet. In the final frames, American soldiers and the corporate executives they had failed to protect were shown lined up as prisoners-of-war about to embark on a death march.
Image above: Detail of still from James Cameron's Avatar. US Marine turned indigenous alien with native lover. From http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=330833
[Editor's Note: Go see this movie this Christmas season, even if you normally do not like science fiction or fantasy. Cameron is in touch with the ideas of The Cosmic Serpent: DNA and the origins of Knowledge by Jeremy Narby. Avatar is a reason to have hope for this world.]
By James Kunstler on 21 December 2009 in www.kunstler.com -
(http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/blue-christmas.html)
As the end-credits rolled for James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, the audience burst into rowdy applause. It seemed to me that they were applauding the sheer computerized dazzlement of the show -- but in the story itself they had just watched the US suffer a humiliating defeat on a distant planet. In the final frames, American soldiers and the corporate executives they had failed to protect were shown lined up as prisoners-of-war about to embark on a death march.
More to the point, the depiction of our national character through the whole course of the film was of a thuggish, cruel, cynical, stupid, detestable, and totally corrupt people bent on the complete destruction of nature. Nice. And the final irony was that Cameron had used theatrical technology of the latest and greatest kind to depict America's broader techno-grandiosity -- as the army's brute robotic warriors fell to the spears and arrows of the simple blue space aliens. Altogether, it was a weird moment in entertainment history, and perhaps in the American experience per se. No doubt audiences overseas will go wild with delight, too, but perhaps with a clearer notion of what they are clapping for than the enthralled masses of zombie Americans.
The infatuation with technology, and the disgusting cockiness that goes with it (so well-captured in Avatar), is but one facet of the psychosis gripping the nation -- and by that I mean the profound detachment from reality. We have no idea what is happening to us and, naturally, no idea of what we are going to do.
I sat in a bar Friday evening with a financial reporter from a national newspaper, trying to explain the peak oil situation and what it implied for our economy. He had never heard it before. The relationship between energy resources and massive debt was new to him. (It also came up in conversation that he could not tell me what the Monroe Doctrine was about, despite a history degree from Yale.) There you have a nice snapshot of the mainstream media in this land.
This year, America can look for a nice lump of coal in its Christmas stocking. That lump will be called "the recovery." This recovery consists of a massive self-deception, made up of accounting tricks and falsified statistics, with a sugar-coating on top of sheer disbelief that the outcome could be anything but a particular happy ending -- namely, the continued levitation of the unsustainable.
What is most amazing about Mr. Cameron's holiday blockbuster is the explicit message that America is a society that deserves to be punished (and humiliated!) by others who manage their own relations with reality better than we do. I wonder how much that will secretly account for its popularity. I wonder what the leaders of China will make of it.
The other current embodiment of national character failure, Tiger Woods, golfer, has also dazzled the American public. Personally I find it much more interesting to learn that he was a really lousy tipper than that he got a lot of action on the side with opportunistic bar girls, porn stars, and other denizens of the sports-entertainment netherworld. Is it not also amusing that golf is even taken seriously as an athletic pursuit? I mean, why not pancake-flipping? Or dice? Or shooting rats at the landfill?
This is the kind of knucklehead culture we have become after six decades of the softest life imaginable. Anyway, I'm not shedding any tears for Tiger. Even if all his endorsements dry up and his ex-wife takes him to the cleaners for a hundred million or so, he'll still be left with enough cash to pay for porn stars and lobster tails until the end of time, especially if he keeps his tipping policy at its current level.
Winter Solstice
SUBHEAD: : Working and waiting in humanity's back ward. The dark-and the light, are you carrying the fire?
Image above: Detail of photo "Winter Night" from article.
By Carolyn Baker on 20 December 2009 in Speaking Truth to Power -
(http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1437/1)
O dark dark dark. They all go into the dark.
The vacant interstellar spaces...... I said to my soul, be still, and wait without hope
For hope would be hope for the wrong thing; wait without love
For love would be love of the wrong thing; there is yet faith
But the faith and the love and the hope are all in the waiting.
Wait without thought, for you are not ready for thought:
So the darkness shall be the light, and the stillness the dancing.
- East Coker from "The Four Quartets", by T.S. Eliot
This afternoon I sit near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, reveling in the brilliant sunshine which pierces the dry, nippy air, knowing that in less than three hours, it will be dark. I count the hours until the shortest day and the longest night of the year signal that magnificent turning point of light and time when the days slowly become longer and the nights shorter. I can think about spring as much as I like, but it will be a long time before I see any definitive signs of it, and even if I do, those could be deluged with a late season snow storm that reminds me that winter has not breathed its last breath and warns me not to become deliriously wistful for warmer days and nights.
This winter solstice is particularly dark. I watch the blood drain from the faces of my progressive friends, disillusioned by their "yeswecan" poster boy who has accomplished little in his first term but the escalation of a despicable war for oil and drugs, and with the stroke of a pen, opened the floodgates for troops and military contractors to rape and pillage yet another piece of the planet. "Welcome to the Golden Arches of Kabul. May I take your order?" The "Hopium" wears off, and we're reminded that it's still winter, and it's still very, very dark.
I contemplate the word "apocalypse" which originates from the Greek word that means "the unveiling". The poster child wins the peace prize, but just hours beforehand, he unleashes hell on earth. Did you see that? The veil was lifted for a few moments and we saw who really owns him.
Humanity is committing suicide in a thousand ways. This week, they all shook hands in Copenhagen and agreed to throw a bone to the climate change militants while genuflecting before corporate capitalism as the supreme deity on earth. The gods have been appeased, but the veil was lifted briefly. Oh my, did you see that? Corruption, scandal, and one climate scientist, Jim Hansen, not only boycotts the entire spectacle, but hopes it will fail because he was able to see through the chicanery even as it was being orchestrated.
A Congress of solidly owned legislators shakes hands and agrees that healthcare has nothing to do with health but only profit for big pharma and the insurance industry. It's all there if you just look. You don't even have to read about it on an alternative news website. Open your eyes because the veil has been torn off, and if you ever wanted to see naked people who can't even find their clothes-who aren't even trying, this is it. But beware because you are a walking pre-existing condition simply because you breathe air.
Over two decades ago as a psychotherapist in training, I worked in the back ward. I have the scars to prove it. I'm fortunate not to have been more severely injured, but more fortunate not to be living the hell I witnessed in the eyes of the patients inhabiting the so-called "mental health unit." Yet unlike the inmates who run the current asylum that is empire, those folks, in that ward, really knew they were crazy. They wanted so badly to die, and they told you that, straight up.
They didn't make delusional statements like "this is a necessary war" or "this climate deal was a meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough" or "hold your nose and vote for it." What's really crazier than the insanity these statements blatantly reveal is the attempt to keep the veil in place. Let's all pretend that industrial civilization is temporarily limping along in some "rough patch" that will invariably, inevitably (because this is America) turn around and re-establish itself in the land of "normal."
I'll take a flagrantly violent and suicidal psychotic any day of the week who is excruciatingly aware of their anguish and begs to be allowed to end their misery. Please, I implore you, give me the certifiable schizophrenic who "knows" he is Jesus and that killer ants are crawling all over his body.
No darkness is as dark as that perpetuated by people who insist they are living in the light.
So what's the real deal with the species that sits, as Tim Bennett suggests, like Thelma and Louise, at the edge of the cliff, about to punch the gas of the '66 T Bird into oblivion while taking everything and everyone else in sight with it? Is it really all about hating the culture and its vacuousness that much?
I keep coming back to the dark-and the light. I can't forget how they need each other-like the North and South poles-like every opposite we can possibly imagine that is only truly defined and appreciated by what it isn't. After all I've written here, how dare I talk about the light? Isn't that all just theory? Where's the experience?
Every once in awhile, one of those patients in that back ward would receive the kind of treatment that allowed him or her to walk out the front door with fear and trepidation, but nevertheless committed to staying alive and finding many reasons to contribute to the lives of others. And even more frequently these days, I find individuals and communities that are discovering a deeper meaning and purpose in their lives that they are holding alongside the horrors created by an inexorably suicidal human species.
I encounter in the most unexpected places people who are not just sitting and waiting, but working - working hard to contribute to the well being of the community of life. They wish to minimize the suffering that the collapse of empire will entail, but even more importantly, they are doing their work just because-because it makes a difference to others, because it empowers themselves and all the lives they touch, because they can't not do the work, because in doing whatever work they feel called to do, they are finding and fulfilling their purpose in being on this dark and scary planet.
You see it isn't just about jumping off a cliff to end the anguish. It's about finding meaning, and even if we build communities that look like permaculture design on steroids, even if we return to steady-state economics and create burgeoning economies of scale based on cooperation, compassion, creativity-even if we fashion intentional communities that approximate heaven on earth, even if we were to forge a culture of nirvana, it is only by immersing ourselves in the inner transition process that brings emotional and spiritual transformation far beyond anything traditional psychotherapy has to offer-it is only there that we find the meaning and purpose that will move us through the evolutionary threshold on which we stand and make the current cultural nightmare a bit more bearable.
A new kind of human is possible, but it will be experienced only as the old paradigm definition of humanity breathes its last breath. The veils keep falling off the things they have been concealing for more than 5,000 years. Let's keep assisting the unveiling and call what's underneath exactly what it is.
One way to do this is to find and do the work we came here to do and which massive unemployment and underemployment, vs. greasing the wheels of empire, now gives us an excellent opportunity to discover.
Our second job is to become in the indigenous sense of the word, elders of the community. The elder is not necessarily the older. His or her job always was and will be not only the preparation of youth for initiation, but speaking truth and creating beauty. These may seem like contradictory tasks, but they are profoundly complementary. In indigenous cultures, elders are truth-tellers who are often disliked for their directness and candor. Yet they know that this is the job of the elder, and that to do anything less is to betray succeeding generations. At the same time, the elder knows that the horrible truths unveiled must be balanced by the creation of beauty-poems, songs, stories, works of art, and music.
In earlier definitions of the word "prophet", it meant not someone who tells what will happen, but what is happening and what is about to happen. Thus the elder must be both a prophet and an artist, for one needs the other and cannot exist without it.
I'm reminded of scenes from the recent movie and novel "The Road" in which "the man" teaches "the boy" that some individuals "carry the fire", and others don't. As the ending reveals, this instruction, as much as the incessant heinous experiences they encountered, made a permanent impression on the boy, and we are led to believe, would be the litmus test on which he relied in a world which many found impossible to endure.
Another poet who was roughly a contemporary of T.S. Eliot was William Butler Yeats. Both lived the transition from the 19th to the 20th centuries, and both witnessed the global cataclysm of World War I. Yeats in particular was deeply troubled about where industrial civilization was taking the planet, yet he never relinquished his conviction that its horrors would ultimately bring forth that new kind of human.
At this solstice/nativity moment, Yeats speaks to us of the light that attends the darkness and cannot be extinguished:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
And so I ask, on this longest night and shortest day: What beauty did you create today?
And in this very dark moment, are you carrying the fire?
See also:
Island Breath: The American Holiday Season 12/14/07
The Gobbler: Winter Crystal Index 12/21/00
The Gobbler: Iroquois Midwinter 12/21/95
Image above: Detail of photo "Winter Night" from article.
By Carolyn Baker on 20 December 2009 in Speaking Truth to Power -
(http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1437/1)
O dark dark dark. They all go into the dark.
The vacant interstellar spaces...... I said to my soul, be still, and wait without hope
For hope would be hope for the wrong thing; wait without love
For love would be love of the wrong thing; there is yet faith
But the faith and the love and the hope are all in the waiting.
Wait without thought, for you are not ready for thought:
So the darkness shall be the light, and the stillness the dancing.
- East Coker from "The Four Quartets", by T.S. Eliot
This afternoon I sit near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, reveling in the brilliant sunshine which pierces the dry, nippy air, knowing that in less than three hours, it will be dark. I count the hours until the shortest day and the longest night of the year signal that magnificent turning point of light and time when the days slowly become longer and the nights shorter. I can think about spring as much as I like, but it will be a long time before I see any definitive signs of it, and even if I do, those could be deluged with a late season snow storm that reminds me that winter has not breathed its last breath and warns me not to become deliriously wistful for warmer days and nights.
This winter solstice is particularly dark. I watch the blood drain from the faces of my progressive friends, disillusioned by their "yeswecan" poster boy who has accomplished little in his first term but the escalation of a despicable war for oil and drugs, and with the stroke of a pen, opened the floodgates for troops and military contractors to rape and pillage yet another piece of the planet. "Welcome to the Golden Arches of Kabul. May I take your order?" The "Hopium" wears off, and we're reminded that it's still winter, and it's still very, very dark.
I contemplate the word "apocalypse" which originates from the Greek word that means "the unveiling". The poster child wins the peace prize, but just hours beforehand, he unleashes hell on earth. Did you see that? The veil was lifted for a few moments and we saw who really owns him.
Humanity is committing suicide in a thousand ways. This week, they all shook hands in Copenhagen and agreed to throw a bone to the climate change militants while genuflecting before corporate capitalism as the supreme deity on earth. The gods have been appeased, but the veil was lifted briefly. Oh my, did you see that? Corruption, scandal, and one climate scientist, Jim Hansen, not only boycotts the entire spectacle, but hopes it will fail because he was able to see through the chicanery even as it was being orchestrated.
A Congress of solidly owned legislators shakes hands and agrees that healthcare has nothing to do with health but only profit for big pharma and the insurance industry. It's all there if you just look. You don't even have to read about it on an alternative news website. Open your eyes because the veil has been torn off, and if you ever wanted to see naked people who can't even find their clothes-who aren't even trying, this is it. But beware because you are a walking pre-existing condition simply because you breathe air.
Over two decades ago as a psychotherapist in training, I worked in the back ward. I have the scars to prove it. I'm fortunate not to have been more severely injured, but more fortunate not to be living the hell I witnessed in the eyes of the patients inhabiting the so-called "mental health unit." Yet unlike the inmates who run the current asylum that is empire, those folks, in that ward, really knew they were crazy. They wanted so badly to die, and they told you that, straight up.
They didn't make delusional statements like "this is a necessary war" or "this climate deal was a meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough" or "hold your nose and vote for it." What's really crazier than the insanity these statements blatantly reveal is the attempt to keep the veil in place. Let's all pretend that industrial civilization is temporarily limping along in some "rough patch" that will invariably, inevitably (because this is America) turn around and re-establish itself in the land of "normal."
I'll take a flagrantly violent and suicidal psychotic any day of the week who is excruciatingly aware of their anguish and begs to be allowed to end their misery. Please, I implore you, give me the certifiable schizophrenic who "knows" he is Jesus and that killer ants are crawling all over his body.
No darkness is as dark as that perpetuated by people who insist they are living in the light.
So what's the real deal with the species that sits, as Tim Bennett suggests, like Thelma and Louise, at the edge of the cliff, about to punch the gas of the '66 T Bird into oblivion while taking everything and everyone else in sight with it? Is it really all about hating the culture and its vacuousness that much?
I keep coming back to the dark-and the light. I can't forget how they need each other-like the North and South poles-like every opposite we can possibly imagine that is only truly defined and appreciated by what it isn't. After all I've written here, how dare I talk about the light? Isn't that all just theory? Where's the experience?
Every once in awhile, one of those patients in that back ward would receive the kind of treatment that allowed him or her to walk out the front door with fear and trepidation, but nevertheless committed to staying alive and finding many reasons to contribute to the lives of others. And even more frequently these days, I find individuals and communities that are discovering a deeper meaning and purpose in their lives that they are holding alongside the horrors created by an inexorably suicidal human species.
I encounter in the most unexpected places people who are not just sitting and waiting, but working - working hard to contribute to the well being of the community of life. They wish to minimize the suffering that the collapse of empire will entail, but even more importantly, they are doing their work just because-because it makes a difference to others, because it empowers themselves and all the lives they touch, because they can't not do the work, because in doing whatever work they feel called to do, they are finding and fulfilling their purpose in being on this dark and scary planet.
You see it isn't just about jumping off a cliff to end the anguish. It's about finding meaning, and even if we build communities that look like permaculture design on steroids, even if we return to steady-state economics and create burgeoning economies of scale based on cooperation, compassion, creativity-even if we fashion intentional communities that approximate heaven on earth, even if we were to forge a culture of nirvana, it is only by immersing ourselves in the inner transition process that brings emotional and spiritual transformation far beyond anything traditional psychotherapy has to offer-it is only there that we find the meaning and purpose that will move us through the evolutionary threshold on which we stand and make the current cultural nightmare a bit more bearable.
A new kind of human is possible, but it will be experienced only as the old paradigm definition of humanity breathes its last breath. The veils keep falling off the things they have been concealing for more than 5,000 years. Let's keep assisting the unveiling and call what's underneath exactly what it is.
One way to do this is to find and do the work we came here to do and which massive unemployment and underemployment, vs. greasing the wheels of empire, now gives us an excellent opportunity to discover.
Our second job is to become in the indigenous sense of the word, elders of the community. The elder is not necessarily the older. His or her job always was and will be not only the preparation of youth for initiation, but speaking truth and creating beauty. These may seem like contradictory tasks, but they are profoundly complementary. In indigenous cultures, elders are truth-tellers who are often disliked for their directness and candor. Yet they know that this is the job of the elder, and that to do anything less is to betray succeeding generations. At the same time, the elder knows that the horrible truths unveiled must be balanced by the creation of beauty-poems, songs, stories, works of art, and music.
In earlier definitions of the word "prophet", it meant not someone who tells what will happen, but what is happening and what is about to happen. Thus the elder must be both a prophet and an artist, for one needs the other and cannot exist without it.
I'm reminded of scenes from the recent movie and novel "The Road" in which "the man" teaches "the boy" that some individuals "carry the fire", and others don't. As the ending reveals, this instruction, as much as the incessant heinous experiences they encountered, made a permanent impression on the boy, and we are led to believe, would be the litmus test on which he relied in a world which many found impossible to endure.
Another poet who was roughly a contemporary of T.S. Eliot was William Butler Yeats. Both lived the transition from the 19th to the 20th centuries, and both witnessed the global cataclysm of World War I. Yeats in particular was deeply troubled about where industrial civilization was taking the planet, yet he never relinquished his conviction that its horrors would ultimately bring forth that new kind of human.
At this solstice/nativity moment, Yeats speaks to us of the light that attends the darkness and cannot be extinguished:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
And so I ask, on this longest night and shortest day: What beauty did you create today?
And in this very dark moment, are you carrying the fire?
See also:
Island Breath: The American Holiday Season 12/14/07
The Gobbler: Winter Crystal Index 12/21/00
The Gobbler: Iroquois Midwinter 12/21/95
Kauai in Black & Color
SUBHEAD: Sometimes it's the contrast between black and color that pleases the eye.
By Juan Wilson on 19 December 2009 for Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2009/12/kauai-in-black-color.html)
This is what I guess is called a photo essay. I was looking through my photo library for a new image of Kauai to use as a background for my computer screen.
I realized after a while that my eye was caught by a genre of composition that I hadn't noticed before. They were images with large areas of blackness contrasting with intense areas of color.
These were not the greatest of photographs, but I found them interesting enough to share. Here are six.
Image above: A colorful beach fire on a dark night on Kauai. All photos by Juan Wilson.
Image above: God-Rays at sunset near Puolo Point south of Burns Field airport in Hanapepe.
Image above: View from the Meditation temple at the Hindu Monastery in Wailua.
Image above: Sunset view towards Niihau from Queen's Pond on the Mana Plain.
Image above: Looking up to Hanapepe Heights from the valley below.
Image above: Ironwood tree at Moloaa Stream as it meets the ocean.
By Juan Wilson on 19 December 2009 for Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2009/12/kauai-in-black-color.html)
This is what I guess is called a photo essay. I was looking through my photo library for a new image of Kauai to use as a background for my computer screen.
I realized after a while that my eye was caught by a genre of composition that I hadn't noticed before. They were images with large areas of blackness contrasting with intense areas of color.
These were not the greatest of photographs, but I found them interesting enough to share. Here are six.
Image above: A colorful beach fire on a dark night on Kauai. All photos by Juan Wilson.
Image above: God-Rays at sunset near Puolo Point south of Burns Field airport in Hanapepe.
Image above: View from the Meditation temple at the Hindu Monastery in Wailua.
Image above: Sunset view towards Niihau from Queen's Pond on the Mana Plain.
Image above: Looking up to Hanapepe Heights from the valley below.
Image above: Ironwood tree at Moloaa Stream as it meets the ocean.
COP15 Journal - Day Sixteen
SUBHEAD: The agreement, that includes the U.S. and China, falls well short of what’s needed to deal with global warming.
Image above: CEO's of USA Inc and China Ltd meet to divide the world.
By Albert Bates on 19 December 2009 in The Great Change -
(http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-cop15-journal-day-sixteen.html)
"Goodbye Africa, goodbye south Asia; goodbye glaciers and sea ice, coral reefs and rainforest; it was nice knowing you, not that we really cared. The governments which moved so swiftly to save the banks have bickered and filibustered while the biosphere burns."
— George Monbiot, The Guardian, 18 Dec 2009
Last Day: When we arrived in Copenhagen 16 days ago, we were met by Ross and Hildur Jackson, our hosts at a farm near Birkerรธd, just outside the city. Hildur had been organizing the Windows of Hope meeting at Christiania and Ross had been drafting white papers and talking points for the Global Ecovillage Network to share with delegates during the negotiations. Ross intends to expand his central position paper, The Breakaway Strategy, into a book soon, and the core of that document turned out to be remarkably prescient as to the outcome of COP-15.
In The Breakaway Strategy, Ross prescribed the ideal components of a fair and binding climate treaty:
1.It should guarantee that the adopted CO2 emissions target will be met with 100% certainty. We will not have two chances to avoid runaway warming. We must get it right the first time;
2.It should be effective and cost-efficient;
3.It should be equitable in order to get the backing of all 7 billion world citizens who are the ultimate owners of the biosphere; and
4.It should be simple and transparent.
The “Kyoto approach” of negotiating CO2 reduction targets, credit bargaining, technology transfer and who pays what to whom — fails all four criteria. If there was any doubt, we need only revisit these past two weeks.
Ironically — and the irony was heightened by the decision of the Danish government, 4 days ago, to exclude the non-governmental organizations (“NGOs”) from the Bella Center — at least three proposals had been put forward by the NGO community over the last two years that fulfill all four criteria. They are:
1.The Earth Atmospheric Trust http://www.earthinc.org/earth_atmospheric_trust.php
2.Kyoto2 http://www.kyoto2.org/page5.html
3.The Carbon Board. [see note below]
To Ross’s three we would add two Irish NGO proposals, Cap and Share and the Carbon Maintenance Fee, based on New Zealand’s prototype Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) to provide a robust and comprehensive carbon reporting and accounting system. Admittedly both of these additions involve more government involvement (and potential for corruption) than the simpler Carbon Board solution cited in The Breakaway Strategy.
The strategy has two components, a top-down political initiative, and a bottom-up civil society initiative. Recognizing that the major powers are locked into a national interest battle and unable to act in the global interest, the strategy turns to some of the smaller nations, such as Maldives and Tuvalu, that are freer and more committed to take on leadership. The Carbon Board, which allocates pollution on a per capita rationing system, is just one example of how such a partnership can function in practice. It administers a reward and punishment system for policing the atmosphere, but could as easily be applied to rationing everything humans are ruining or depleting to extinction — fisheries, food, water, or phosphorus, for instance.
The first step would be for the organizers to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO), hence the name breakaway. The WTO is a major part of the problem because it prevents individual nations from introducing environmentally friendly production methods and subsidizing industries that go green.
From the start of the COP-15 meetings it became evident that a very different agenda was being worked than the Kyoto, multilateral, inclusive, transparent, “shared but differentiated” commitment process that had evolved since the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972.
Within hours of the opening, the buzz in the halls was all about the secret text that Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen had been circulating to just the G8 parties. Inexplicably, the UN had begun to function like the WTO. Some called it an “Am-Bush.” Others called it “Kyotic.”
Rasmussen, as head of Venstre, the right wing party, and a coalition including the rabid anti-immigrant party in Denmark, had become the official host of the meeting. Until midway through the second week of the COP, that role had fallen on the more capable shoulders of Denmark’s former environmental minister, Connie Hedegaard. With years of experience at the UN, and in the Kyoto process particularly, Hedegaard knew the players, the positions, and was respected as fair and impartial.
Rasmussen would, in contrast, become known for high-handed demands, back-room wheeling and dealing, mass arrest and detention of protestors on suspicion of future traffic obstruction, demoting Hedegaard on the eve of the final high-level talks, and then abruptly bringing her back in to try to salvage a deal, barring the civil sector IGOs and NGOs from the meeting midway through the second week, after putting them through torturous and repeated dawn-till-dark outdoor linestandings in freezing cold and blowing snow, and then breaking with the EU and G-77 to back the USA's “coalition of the willing” approach.
Leaving the NGOs out in the cold — literally — meant that none of civil society's detailed ideas could rise to the surface when they were most needed to break out of government sector's impasse. Instead, the US came in and tried to bully China, and China, in a geopolitical-orbit-shifting rebuke, stood firm and did not blink. The US limped home with a spin-doctored document, while China was revealed as the emerging world power to be reckoned with. Some of that had to do with China’s massive investments in Africa and the two-thirds world over the past decade, which had built it a large store of political capital. Unfortunately, it spent a big hunk of that when it sold out Africa to the 5-party outcome.
Naomi Klein said, “Africa was sacrificed. The position of the G77 negotiating bloc, including African states, had been clear: a 2C increase in average global temperatures translates into a 3–3.5C increase in Africa. That means, according to the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, ‘an additional 55 million people could be at risk from hunger,’ and ‘water stress could affect between 350 and 600 million more people.’”
Rasmussen and the G8 powers led by the Obama delegation, made their case for colonialism. What was being colonized and divided between occupying powers was not the G77, but the sky. For a mere ten billion dollars per year, G8 shareholders were sold a carbon market worth $1.2 trillion per year. Matthew Stilwell of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development said that rich countries were allowed to exchange “beads and blankets for Manhattan,” adding, “[They]'ve carved up the last remaining unowned resource and allocated it to the wealthy.”
With a $100 billion/year buy-out (first payment — 2020, a US election year) — or one army-year in Kabul, shared out between 193 countries, citizens from the Maldives will be offered hotel rooms in Houston the way New Orleans hurricane refugees were.
Greenpeace Executive Director Kumi Naidoo said,
“In a cruel irony I have just learned that the three Greenpeace activists who, posing as world leaders, entered the Danish Palace for the State Dinner on Thursday night to unfurl a banner calling for a real climate deal are to spend the next three weeks in jail. They will be away from their families over Christmas and the New Year. The real leaders, who attempted to get real action are now in jail, while the alleged 'leaders' got clean away, and are fleeing the Copenhagen climate crime scene in private jets and 747s.”
In the end, just five countries signed the “Copenhagen Outcome,” a mushy mishmash of voluntary pledges. They left some serious heavy lifting for November 2010, when COP-16 convenes in Mexico. There the chair will be Felipe de Jesรบs Calderรณn Hinojosa, a man to whom Lars Lokke Rasmussen must surely have looked to as a role model to guide him on steering a fractious political process to the safe harbor of crystal chandeliers, overstuffed chairs before the fire, a snifter of Cognac, and a good cigar — perhaps Cuban.
If anyone can keep those solution-oriented NGO ideas out of the process at COP-16, it will be Felipe Calderรณn.
[note] Ross Jackson, “An Ideal Climate Agreement?” (Permaculture Magazine, UK, no.58 Winter 2008). See www.ross-jackson.com (Articles, English), “Climate Solutions: Part I, Comparisons” and “Climate Solutions: Part 2, The Carbon Board.
Obama guts progressive values SUBHEAD: The worst instincts of our species articulated by the most powerful men who ever lived. By Bill McKibben on 19 December 2009 in Grist - (http://www.grist.org/article/2009-12-18-with-climate-agreement-obama-guts-progressive-values)
Image above: CEO's of USA Inc and China Ltd meet to divide the world.
By Albert Bates on 19 December 2009 in The Great Change -
(http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-cop15-journal-day-sixteen.html)
"Goodbye Africa, goodbye south Asia; goodbye glaciers and sea ice, coral reefs and rainforest; it was nice knowing you, not that we really cared. The governments which moved so swiftly to save the banks have bickered and filibustered while the biosphere burns."
— George Monbiot, The Guardian, 18 Dec 2009
Last Day: When we arrived in Copenhagen 16 days ago, we were met by Ross and Hildur Jackson, our hosts at a farm near Birkerรธd, just outside the city. Hildur had been organizing the Windows of Hope meeting at Christiania and Ross had been drafting white papers and talking points for the Global Ecovillage Network to share with delegates during the negotiations. Ross intends to expand his central position paper, The Breakaway Strategy, into a book soon, and the core of that document turned out to be remarkably prescient as to the outcome of COP-15.
In The Breakaway Strategy, Ross prescribed the ideal components of a fair and binding climate treaty:
1.It should guarantee that the adopted CO2 emissions target will be met with 100% certainty. We will not have two chances to avoid runaway warming. We must get it right the first time;
2.It should be effective and cost-efficient;
3.It should be equitable in order to get the backing of all 7 billion world citizens who are the ultimate owners of the biosphere; and
4.It should be simple and transparent.
The “Kyoto approach” of negotiating CO2 reduction targets, credit bargaining, technology transfer and who pays what to whom — fails all four criteria. If there was any doubt, we need only revisit these past two weeks.
Ironically — and the irony was heightened by the decision of the Danish government, 4 days ago, to exclude the non-governmental organizations (“NGOs”) from the Bella Center — at least three proposals had been put forward by the NGO community over the last two years that fulfill all four criteria. They are:
1.The Earth Atmospheric Trust http://www.earthinc.org/earth_atmospheric_trust.php
2.Kyoto2 http://www.kyoto2.org/page5.html
3.The Carbon Board. [see note below]
To Ross’s three we would add two Irish NGO proposals, Cap and Share and the Carbon Maintenance Fee, based on New Zealand’s prototype Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) to provide a robust and comprehensive carbon reporting and accounting system. Admittedly both of these additions involve more government involvement (and potential for corruption) than the simpler Carbon Board solution cited in The Breakaway Strategy.
The strategy has two components, a top-down political initiative, and a bottom-up civil society initiative. Recognizing that the major powers are locked into a national interest battle and unable to act in the global interest, the strategy turns to some of the smaller nations, such as Maldives and Tuvalu, that are freer and more committed to take on leadership. The Carbon Board, which allocates pollution on a per capita rationing system, is just one example of how such a partnership can function in practice. It administers a reward and punishment system for policing the atmosphere, but could as easily be applied to rationing everything humans are ruining or depleting to extinction — fisheries, food, water, or phosphorus, for instance.
The first step would be for the organizers to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO), hence the name breakaway. The WTO is a major part of the problem because it prevents individual nations from introducing environmentally friendly production methods and subsidizing industries that go green.
From the start of the COP-15 meetings it became evident that a very different agenda was being worked than the Kyoto, multilateral, inclusive, transparent, “shared but differentiated” commitment process that had evolved since the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972.
Within hours of the opening, the buzz in the halls was all about the secret text that Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen had been circulating to just the G8 parties. Inexplicably, the UN had begun to function like the WTO. Some called it an “Am-Bush.” Others called it “Kyotic.”
Rasmussen, as head of Venstre, the right wing party, and a coalition including the rabid anti-immigrant party in Denmark, had become the official host of the meeting. Until midway through the second week of the COP, that role had fallen on the more capable shoulders of Denmark’s former environmental minister, Connie Hedegaard. With years of experience at the UN, and in the Kyoto process particularly, Hedegaard knew the players, the positions, and was respected as fair and impartial.
Rasmussen would, in contrast, become known for high-handed demands, back-room wheeling and dealing, mass arrest and detention of protestors on suspicion of future traffic obstruction, demoting Hedegaard on the eve of the final high-level talks, and then abruptly bringing her back in to try to salvage a deal, barring the civil sector IGOs and NGOs from the meeting midway through the second week, after putting them through torturous and repeated dawn-till-dark outdoor linestandings in freezing cold and blowing snow, and then breaking with the EU and G-77 to back the USA's “coalition of the willing” approach.
Leaving the NGOs out in the cold — literally — meant that none of civil society's detailed ideas could rise to the surface when they were most needed to break out of government sector's impasse. Instead, the US came in and tried to bully China, and China, in a geopolitical-orbit-shifting rebuke, stood firm and did not blink. The US limped home with a spin-doctored document, while China was revealed as the emerging world power to be reckoned with. Some of that had to do with China’s massive investments in Africa and the two-thirds world over the past decade, which had built it a large store of political capital. Unfortunately, it spent a big hunk of that when it sold out Africa to the 5-party outcome.
Naomi Klein said, “Africa was sacrificed. The position of the G77 negotiating bloc, including African states, had been clear: a 2C increase in average global temperatures translates into a 3–3.5C increase in Africa. That means, according to the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, ‘an additional 55 million people could be at risk from hunger,’ and ‘water stress could affect between 350 and 600 million more people.’”
Rasmussen and the G8 powers led by the Obama delegation, made their case for colonialism. What was being colonized and divided between occupying powers was not the G77, but the sky. For a mere ten billion dollars per year, G8 shareholders were sold a carbon market worth $1.2 trillion per year. Matthew Stilwell of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development said that rich countries were allowed to exchange “beads and blankets for Manhattan,” adding, “[They]'ve carved up the last remaining unowned resource and allocated it to the wealthy.”
With a $100 billion/year buy-out (first payment — 2020, a US election year) — or one army-year in Kabul, shared out between 193 countries, citizens from the Maldives will be offered hotel rooms in Houston the way New Orleans hurricane refugees were.
Greenpeace Executive Director Kumi Naidoo said,
“In a cruel irony I have just learned that the three Greenpeace activists who, posing as world leaders, entered the Danish Palace for the State Dinner on Thursday night to unfurl a banner calling for a real climate deal are to spend the next three weeks in jail. They will be away from their families over Christmas and the New Year. The real leaders, who attempted to get real action are now in jail, while the alleged 'leaders' got clean away, and are fleeing the Copenhagen climate crime scene in private jets and 747s.”
In the end, just five countries signed the “Copenhagen Outcome,” a mushy mishmash of voluntary pledges. They left some serious heavy lifting for November 2010, when COP-16 convenes in Mexico. There the chair will be Felipe de Jesรบs Calderรณn Hinojosa, a man to whom Lars Lokke Rasmussen must surely have looked to as a role model to guide him on steering a fractious political process to the safe harbor of crystal chandeliers, overstuffed chairs before the fire, a snifter of Cognac, and a good cigar — perhaps Cuban.
If anyone can keep those solution-oriented NGO ideas out of the process at COP-16, it will be Felipe Calderรณn.
[note] Ross Jackson, “An Ideal Climate Agreement?” (Permaculture Magazine, UK, no.58 Winter 2008). See www.ross-jackson.com (Articles, English), “Climate Solutions: Part I, Comparisons” and “Climate Solutions: Part 2, The Carbon Board.
Obama guts progressive values SUBHEAD: The worst instincts of our species articulated by the most powerful men who ever lived. By Bill McKibben on 19 December 2009 in Grist - (http://www.grist.org/article/2009-12-18-with-climate-agreement-obama-guts-progressive-values)
The President of the United States did several things with his agreement today with China, India, and South Africa:
- He blew up the United Nations. The idea that there’s a world community that means something has disappeared tonight. The clear point is, you poor nations can spout off all you want on questions like human rights or the role of women or fighting polio or handling refugees. But when you get too close to the center of things that count—the fossil fuel that’s at the center of our economy—you can forget about it. We’re not interested. You’re a bother, and when you sink beneath the waves, we don’t want to hear much about it. The dearest hope of the American right for 50 years was essentially realized because in the end coal is at the center of America’s economy. We already did this with war and peace, and now we’ve done it with global warming. What exactly is the point of the U.N. now?
- He formed a league of super-polluters, and would-be super-polluters. China, the U.S., and India don’t want anyone controlling their use of coal in any meaningful way. It is a coalition of foxes who will together govern the henhouse. It is no accident that the targets are weak to nonexistent. We don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves with targets, he said. Indeed. And now imagine what this agreement will look like with the next Republican president.
- He demonstrated the kind of firmness and resolve that Americans like to see. It will play well politically at home and that will be the worst part of the deal. Having spurned Europe and the poor countries of the world, he will reap domestic political benefit. George Bush couldn’t have done this—the reaction would have been too great. Obama has taken the mandate that progressives worked their hearts out to give him, and used it to gut the ideas that progressives have held most dear. The ice caps won’t be the only things we lose with this deal.
Making Taro Hashbrowns
SUBHEAD: Chinese variety dryland taro makes a great substitute for a McDonald's hashbrown.
By Juan Wilson on 19 December 2009 for Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2009/12/taro-hashbrowns.html)
[Authors update 9/26/12: For a while we have been freezing taro corms after trimming and cleaning them (seee second photo below). The frozen corms change their texture after thawing. I believe the freeze/thaw cycle helps break down the calcium oxalate. When shredding and frying the thawed taro I've found it cooks faste, is stickier and seems to have less irritation for those sensitive to calcium oxalate.]
Image above: Mostly loco-vore breakfast. Eggs, papaya/lime, orange juice, and taro hashbrown from yard. Coffee from nearby Kauai Coffee. Catsup and turkey bacon from God-knows-where via Eleele Big Save Supermarket. All photos by Juan Wilson.
We've been growing dryland taro for five years in our backyard. See Island Breath: Backyard Taro Farmer. My favorite use of them is as a hashbrown for breakfast. Before you try any taro recipe you should realize that in its raw form taro is toxic, due to the presence of calcium oxalate, although the toxin is destroyed by cooking.
The calcium oxalate can be removed a long boil or, according to Wikipedia, by steeping taro roots in cold water overnight. It is also good to determine how sensitive you are to the calcium oxalate. I have a pretty high tolerance to it, whereas my wife is quite sensitive. She generally has no problem eating the taro prepared as hashbrowns. For my hashbrowns I neither boil or steep the roots (corms). Note, as far as I know this is only possible with the varieties of dryland taro that are low in calcium oxalate, to begin with. These varieties are white inside, rather than lined with a purple pinkish color.
Image above: Trimmed and cleaned dryland taro corms. Note how free of pink spots they are.
One medium size corn will provide 2-3 hashbrown servings. Peel the dark brown skin off the taro corm. The peeled skin should include the purple and pink layer below. From what I understand this is where there is the greatest concentration of calcium oxalate. Note the peeled corm has a soapy, slippery texture, so be careful of your knuckles on the grater... or leave a little skin on the corm to form a good grip.
Image above: A halfway shredded taro corm almost ready for seasoning.
Once shredded I add a pinch of Hanapepe sea salt, some black pepper and a generous amount of powdered garlic. Adding some minced fresh garlic as a nicety too. The shredded taro sticks quite well to itself. Just put the shreds in the preheated high temperature safflower oil. Spread and flatten the taro out to fill the bottom of a 10" cast iron skillet. The trick to taking care of the calcium oxalate is to press the taro very thin (1/8"). This process will make a the taro into something like a pan fried chipate. It will cling together, so that you can flip it like a pan-sized pancake. Cook the big hashbrown thoroughly on both sides.
Image above: Shredded taro flattened and fried in oil on both sides until browned.
This can takes about ten to fifteen minutes. The hashbrown is ready when it is slightly browned on both sides and crispy. I fold it in half and continue heating it for a few minutes. When the eggs and turkey bacon are done I cut the big semicircular hashbrown into some pie shaped wedges for serving. A little catsup on the side works well with a dash of hot sauce. Happy Breakfast! If you grow your own taro...
Image above: a fresh picked dryland taro plant from backyard ready to be washed and trimmed.
You want to harvest only the few plants you will need for no longer than a week or so. Care must be taken to cut the corm (root) off the plant without damaging the seam between the out-of-ground portion and the rooting portion. This is so the upper part of the plant can be replanted to regrow another corm. All but the most inner (newest) leaf stem should be clipped off the plant for replanting (so as not to waste plant energy).
Image above: Trimmed upper part of taro plants ready for re-planting in ground.
Taro plants do not have to be replanted immediately. Even a week after harvest plants can be viable. I recommend wrapping them in a moist towel and keeping them in a shaded place if you are going to wait to replant them.
See also:
Island Breath: Ulu - The Breadfruit Tree 12/31/06 E
a O Ka Aina: Get out your `Ulu! 7/19/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Peak Macadamia Nut 9/22/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Green Turtle Mango 10/13/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Green Papaya Sauerkraut 10/14/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Breadfruit Experiments 11/15/09
By Juan Wilson on 19 December 2009 for Island Breath -
(http://islandbreath.blogspot.com/2009/12/taro-hashbrowns.html)
[Authors update 9/26/12: For a while we have been freezing taro corms after trimming and cleaning them (seee second photo below). The frozen corms change their texture after thawing. I believe the freeze/thaw cycle helps break down the calcium oxalate. When shredding and frying the thawed taro I've found it cooks faste, is stickier and seems to have less irritation for those sensitive to calcium oxalate.]
Image above: Mostly loco-vore breakfast. Eggs, papaya/lime, orange juice, and taro hashbrown from yard. Coffee from nearby Kauai Coffee. Catsup and turkey bacon from God-knows-where via Eleele Big Save Supermarket. All photos by Juan Wilson.
We've been growing dryland taro for five years in our backyard. See Island Breath: Backyard Taro Farmer. My favorite use of them is as a hashbrown for breakfast. Before you try any taro recipe you should realize that in its raw form taro is toxic, due to the presence of calcium oxalate, although the toxin is destroyed by cooking.
The calcium oxalate can be removed a long boil or, according to Wikipedia, by steeping taro roots in cold water overnight. It is also good to determine how sensitive you are to the calcium oxalate. I have a pretty high tolerance to it, whereas my wife is quite sensitive. She generally has no problem eating the taro prepared as hashbrowns. For my hashbrowns I neither boil or steep the roots (corms). Note, as far as I know this is only possible with the varieties of dryland taro that are low in calcium oxalate, to begin with. These varieties are white inside, rather than lined with a purple pinkish color.
Image above: Trimmed and cleaned dryland taro corms. Note how free of pink spots they are.
One medium size corn will provide 2-3 hashbrown servings. Peel the dark brown skin off the taro corm. The peeled skin should include the purple and pink layer below. From what I understand this is where there is the greatest concentration of calcium oxalate. Note the peeled corm has a soapy, slippery texture, so be careful of your knuckles on the grater... or leave a little skin on the corm to form a good grip.
Image above: A halfway shredded taro corm almost ready for seasoning.
Once shredded I add a pinch of Hanapepe sea salt, some black pepper and a generous amount of powdered garlic. Adding some minced fresh garlic as a nicety too. The shredded taro sticks quite well to itself. Just put the shreds in the preheated high temperature safflower oil. Spread and flatten the taro out to fill the bottom of a 10" cast iron skillet. The trick to taking care of the calcium oxalate is to press the taro very thin (1/8"). This process will make a the taro into something like a pan fried chipate. It will cling together, so that you can flip it like a pan-sized pancake. Cook the big hashbrown thoroughly on both sides.
Image above: Shredded taro flattened and fried in oil on both sides until browned.
This can takes about ten to fifteen minutes. The hashbrown is ready when it is slightly browned on both sides and crispy. I fold it in half and continue heating it for a few minutes. When the eggs and turkey bacon are done I cut the big semicircular hashbrown into some pie shaped wedges for serving. A little catsup on the side works well with a dash of hot sauce. Happy Breakfast! If you grow your own taro...
Image above: a fresh picked dryland taro plant from backyard ready to be washed and trimmed.
You want to harvest only the few plants you will need for no longer than a week or so. Care must be taken to cut the corm (root) off the plant without damaging the seam between the out-of-ground portion and the rooting portion. This is so the upper part of the plant can be replanted to regrow another corm. All but the most inner (newest) leaf stem should be clipped off the plant for replanting (so as not to waste plant energy).
Image above: Trimmed upper part of taro plants ready for re-planting in ground.
Taro plants do not have to be replanted immediately. Even a week after harvest plants can be viable. I recommend wrapping them in a moist towel and keeping them in a shaded place if you are going to wait to replant them.
See also:
Island Breath: Ulu - The Breadfruit Tree 12/31/06 E
a O Ka Aina: Get out your `Ulu! 7/19/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Peak Macadamia Nut 9/22/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Green Turtle Mango 10/13/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Green Papaya Sauerkraut 10/14/09
Ea O Ka Aina: Breadfruit Experiments 11/15/09
No Negotiating With Nature
SUBHEAD: Two new studies show that the effects of changing climate are with us regardless of where governments or public opinion stand.
By Sam Kornell on 18 December 2009 in Miller-McCune -
(http://www.miller-mccune.com/science_environment/there-is-no-negotiating-with-nature-1683)
Image above: Here, a visualization of what would happen if the Southern hemisphere experiences 6-foot sea level rise:
Large parts of Manhattan would disappear. Illustration is from original article.
Image above: Here, a visualization of what would happen if the Southern hemisphere experiences 6-foot sea level rise:
Large parts of Manhattan would disappear. Illustration is from original article.
Climate change is having an effect on the planet regardless of where governments or public opinion stand. Here, a visualization of what would happen if the Southern hemisphere experiences 6-foot sea level rise: Large parts of Manhattan would disappear.flickr.com
Global warming has recently been subjected to a media blitz, thanks both to the international climate conference in Copenhagen, and the controversy surrounding the online publication of filched e-mails between a number of leading climate scientists.
Lost in the clamor were two new reports, which, in their separate ways, serve to illustrate a gap that has grown up between the physics and politics of climate change. Even as polls indicate slackening concern among Americans about global warming, evidence shows that the greenhouse effect is rapidly intensifying.
The studies in question suggest the enormity of the change the planet is beginning to undergo, but they also demonstrate, by their anonymity, how difficult it seems to be for climate change to capture the public imagination.
In the last decade of climate research, the rate of global warming has consistently matched or outpaced the "worst-case" projections produced by leading climate models. And yet no matter how many studies are published revealing alarming new data, public opinion on the matter seems still to be determined by politics instead of physics.
It is worth remembering, in this light, that while we can negotiate with each other about climate change and what to do - or not do — about it, we cannot negotiate with the climate itself. The first study was published in the journal Science in late November. Conducted by Japanese and Canadian researchers, and it concerns a seemingly obscure problem: the well-being of shellfish in the Arctic Sea. As early as 1999, scientists warned that one consequence of climate change could be the acidification of ocean water. The ocean absorbs gases from the atmosphere, and close to half of all the carbon dioxide humans have emitted since the beginning of the 19th century has been soaked up by the sea.
In 1999, Ken Caldeira, a well-known climate scientist at Stanford University, found that clogging the atmosphere with carbon dioxide will eventually alter the pH of seawater — a process he termed ocean acidification. He also warned that as the climate change accelerates, the ocean will become undersaturated with aragonite — the form of calcium carbonate that shellfish use to form their shells.
When Caldeira conducted his study in 1999, he projected that it would take three centuries for ocean acidification to threaten shellfish with extinction.
Caldeira published the first part of the study, in Nature, with the subheading "The coming centuries may see more ocean acidification than the past 300 million years."
Caldeira's projection, it now seems, was optimistic — a recurring phenomenon in climate modeling. The new Science study drastically shortens his time frame. The researchers project that the Southern Ocean will become undersaturated with aragonite by 2030, and the North Pacific by 2100. Arctic surface waters will become undersaturated within a decade. Moreover, they found that aragonite saturation has already decreased in the top 50 meters of the Canada Basin, due not only to increased atmospheric CO2 levels, but also sea-ice melt.
The fate of shellfish in the Canada Basin may seem obscure. But shellfish — beginning with pteropods but including everything from mussels to clams — help form the basis of the ocean food chain. If they can't form shells due to consequences of global warming, fish can't eat them, seals and polar bears can't eat the fish, and an enormous ecological catastrophe ensues. "It puts the entire [Arctic] food chain at risk," Fiona McLaughlin, one of the researchers, told Reuters.
The Science study is interesting in part because it shows that sea-ice melt is a major cause of aragonite undersaturation.
"Sea ice is so pure it has very few of these (carbonate) ions. It means that when we are melting this ice, which by its nature is more acidic, we are making surface waters more acidic," McLaughlin said. According to the study, ocean acidification — a phenomenon whose strange and alarming nature is evoked by its very name — won't begin in the Southern Ocean until 2030.
But that projection may have to be sped up. Less than two weeks after the Science study was published, an ominous new report concerning the stability of Antarctic ice upended a widely held assumption in the scientific community.
Antarctica is divided into two ice sheets — one on the western side of the continent, the other on the east. Scientists have known for some time that the western sheet is melting. When Al Gore showed film of glaciers crashing into the sea in the documentary An Inconvenient Truth, the footage came from the west Antarctic coast. At the time, the frozen continent was losing as much as 36 cubic miles of ice per year, a trend unambiguously linked to global warming.
As Gore pointed out, if the West Antarctic ice sheet were to disappear completely, it would cause the ocean to rise and cover much of the world's low-lying land, including large parts of the Eastern seaboard.
But while scientists were certain that the West Antarctic sheet was melting, it was generally assumed that its eastern counterpart was stable or even gaining mass. The region is so cold that it seemed insulated against all but the most drastic warming.
So it came as a shock when, on Dec. 1, the journal Nature Geoscience published evidence showing that the East Antarctic sheet is also melting. Studying data collected by a NASA satellite, researchers at the University of Austin, in Texas, discovered that the sheet has been losing mass for at least the last three years. The data, they found, "indicates that as a whole, Antarctica may soon be contributing significantly more to global sea-level rise."
The most recent report from the U.N. body tasked with tracking climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, projected that by the end of this century ice melt will cause the seas to rise by a maximum of just under 2 feet. That report was released in 2007. A week after the Nature Geoscience data was released, a study by European researchers, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, projected that sea levels may increase by more than 6 feet by 2100.
A 6-foot sea level rise would, models show, submerge more than 22,000 square miles of U.S. land on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Most of Florida and Louisiana would become uninhabitable, and large parts of Manhattan would disappear. Worldwide, more than 100 million people — nearly a third of the total population of the United States — would be displaced.
It is also worth noting that the complete disappearance of the West Antarctic ice sheet is frequently used as an example of a "worst-case" scenario, to illustrate how bad global warming could become on a multiple-century time scale. Its melting would cause the seas to rise by 20 feet. The full melting of the East Antarctic ice sheet, by contrast, would cause them to rise by 200 feet — a nearly unimaginable prospect.
As the studies above show, climate change is already reconfiguring the natural world. How extensive that reconfiguration ends up being — and how much suffering results in consequence — depends on whether politicians across the world can agree to take strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Their success, in turn, will to a large extent depend on the answer to a simple question: When will the gap between the politics and the physics of climate change close?
Climate deal in Copenhagen
SUBHEAD: The Copenhagen deal came after a roller coaster ride of ups and downs, crushed expectations and renewed hope, posturing politicians and pleas for sanity.
By Albert Bates on 18 December 2009 in The Great Change -
(http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-cop15-journal-day-fifteen.html)
Image above: "Leaders Useless" illustration from article on climate talks failure from October 2009. From http://bristol.indymedia.org/article/691300
[IB Publisher's Note: If you have hopes for the COP15 steering us in the right direction, remember the experts on ocean chemistry say that a 2ยบC rise in sea temperature will kill off the tropical reefs, including those in Hawaii in decades.]
Day 15:
This has been such an exhausting day, after such an exhausting two weeks, and it is now midnight so we thought of just going straight to bed and post something in the morning, but so many new readers have picked up this blog that we felt we could not disappoint. We will make a short post now and then elaborate more tomorrow.
There is a climate deal in Copenhagen. It came after a roller coaster ride of ups and downs, crushed expectations and renewed hope, posturing politicians and pleas for sanity. The newspaper headline this morning was “Kan Han?” [Can he do it?] over a picture of Obama. When President O made his opening address, expectations were very high that he would break the logjam and move the treaty to conclusion. Instead, he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Repeating the lame pledges that Hillary Clinton had outlined the day before, he was greeted by boos and jeers in the Klimaforum, the temporary home of many of the exiled NGOs, or at least those who had not been arrested or packed up and left in disgust. Why was he booed? Because the US offer was 3 to 4% reductions in GHG from 1990 levels by 2020, which everyone here knows is only 10% of what is needed to stabilize the climate at a 2 degree increase by mid-century. The EU has pledged a multilateral cut of 35 percent. China 40 percent.
The US and China combine to produce 40% of all greenhouse gases. Tallying all the pledges, we were still 4 gigatons per year short of the 2 degree (350 ppm) target, which meant we could see 3 degrees by mid-century, meaning 5 to 6 degrees in Africa. Evo Morales had called for changing the target to 1 degree. He pledged Bolivia would become carbon neutral like the Maldives is. When Obama arrived and still spoke about the lame US target as though it were something of value, people booed.
If the US were to rise to the EU pledge level, the target could be met and the treaty would have been signed.
The US economy would have had a shot in the arm and a whole new industry would be born. Without that pledge, however, nothing works, the talks are doomed, and the planet we call home may die. People here love Obama. They were deeply disappointed today. On Danish TV, the anchor asked their reporter standing in front of a backdrop of the White House why it was so hard for the US to understand the urgency. The reporter replied (and my Danish is weak so this is a paraphrase):
One in eight children (in the US) goes to bed hungry at night. People die in the thousands without health care. There are two million in prison, more than in China. People are losing their jobs, and their homes. To say that climate change takes on less importance when one is confronted with such challenges is realistic. Even though Denmark now has a right wing government (as we have seen from the police tactics, expulsion of NGOs from the climate talks, and suspension of civil rights this past week) all of those conditions which the reporter described for the United States are almost inconceivable here. How could a country as industrious as the US be so poor in social capital?
A pledge of carbon neutrality, coming from the US, would have changed everything in the climate summit. President Obama would have been the knight in shining armor. US honor would have been restored. Instead, the US delegation framed this as a blame game and China was the bad guy. In actuality, China pledged transparency from the moment Hillary Clinton finished the press conference on Thursday where the Bad China talking point emerged. The press reported, “Clinton said Washington would press the world to come up with a climate aid fund amounting to $100 billion a year by 2020, a move that was quickly followed by an offer from China to open its reporting on actions to reduce carbon emissions to international review.”
When Obama said China was not being transparent and that was a deal-breaker, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with Obama and offered new transparency commitments. Obama said he was satisfied, only to inexplicably reverse that position later in the day. This kabuki played out two or three more times. Eventually it was obvious to most in the Bella Center that it was US and China bickering that was holding up the deal. By the end of the morning, the EU was circulating a draft text dubbed the "Copenhagen Accord." The 120 world leaders still present were given two hours to offer amendments. Here is how that draft text read:
TEMPERATURE GOAL
"Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperatures ought not to exceed 2 degrees, and on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, parties commit to a vigorous response through immediate and enhanced national action based on strengthened international cooperation." BROAD GOALS "Ambitious action to mitigate climate change is needed with developed countries taking the lead. Parties recognize the critical impact of climate change on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effect and stress the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support. “Deep cuts in global emissions are required."
ANNEX ONE (RICH NATIONS) TARGETS
"Annex One parties to the Convention commit to implement, individually or jointly, the quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 as listed, yielding in aggregate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of "X" percent in 2020 compared to 1990 and "Y" percent in 2020 compared to 2005." [The use of “and” here instead of “or” is important. The US is the only country calculating its proposed reductions from 2005 (17%) instead of 1990 (3%). This requires them to calculate both],
NON ANNEX ONE (DEVELOPING NATIONS) GOALS
"Non Annex One parties to the Convention resolve to implement mitigation actions based on their specific national circumstances. Frequency of submissions of non Annex One parties will be every 2 years ... subject to their domestic auditing and assessment ... Clarification may, upon request, be provided by the party concerned at its discretion to respond to any question contained in a national communication ... Supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions shall be subject to international verification".
FUNDS
"Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding shall be provided by developed country parties. “Parties shall provide new and additional resources of $30 billion for 2010-12. “In the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, the parties support the goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion a year to address the climate change needs of developing countries. “This funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance. “A Copenhagen Climate Fund shall be established as an operating entity."
FUTURE
"The parties call for a review of this decision and implementation in 2016. “(Negotiations on a legal text would continue) with a view to adopting one or more legal instruments under the convention as soon as possible and no later than COP 16 (a meeting due in Mexico in November 2009)".
The EU had said earlier the world should aim to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels, with rich nations cutting their emissions by 80 percent. Premier Wen told delegates that China's voluntary targets of reducing its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent would require "tremendous efforts." "We will honor our word with real action," Wen said. In stark contrast, the US was still committing to only a 3% cut, and then pointing fingers. To the NGO community, which is now barred from the COP-15 conference, 50 by '50 looked like a pretty good accord, even if more would be needed later.
Apparently some countries had problems with it, however, because over the late afternoon and evening hours, the text weakened significantly, Some objected to language about 2010 commitments and binding legal framework in COP-16. A clause was dropped that had called on developing countries to reduce emissions by 15-30 percent below "business as usual," that is, judged against the level had no action been taken.
A group of about 25 countries sought and won unanimous agreement on a two-page statement committing to the mobilization of $30 billion in the next three years to help poor countries cope with climate change and a scaling up to $100 billion a year by 2020. Since this satisfied the victim nations, reparations were no longer on the table.
Obama and Wen met twice, said they had taken a step forward in their talks and directed negotiators to keep working, but then fell into sniping at each other. Obama may eventually become known as "the man who killed Copenhagen," said Greenpeace U.S. Executive Director Phil Radford. Brazil's Lula da Silva said a miracle would be needed. "I am not sure if such an angel or wise man will come down to this plenary and put in our minds the intelligence that we lacked," Silva said. "I believe in God.
I believe in miracles." It is half past midnight in Denmark under a blanket of fresh snow and, while everyone was saying “It ain’t over until the black man sings,” President O and Air Force One are out over the Atlantic now. The draft text was abandoned in favor a 5-party deal between the US, China, South Africa, India and Brazil. That, and the adaptation and mitigation funding agreed to by all, was to have been the final outcome of Copenhagen, but hang on, it ain’t over. The EU has called delegates back into session and is determined to come out with something more substantive now that the US and China circus has left town. And tomorrow, we shall see just what that might be.
Out of Time!
SUBHEAD: No New Treaty Likely at COP15 - We've Run Out of Time, Top UN Climate Negotiator Says.
[IB Publisher's Note: It's not as if COP15 failure was not anticipated. Check this article out written in October.]
By Mathew McDermott on 21 October 2009 in Treehugger.org -
(http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/10/no-new-treaty-likely-at-cop15.php)
Image above: "Out of Time" by Sean Patrick Coon in Treehugger.org From http://www.flickr.com/photos/spcoon/3194377944
While it's true, as Brian just pointed out, that the media have been taking us on a bit of a rollercoaster ride regarding the will there-will there not be a new treaty at the end of COP15 speculation, The Financial Times splashes some cold water on the idea that 'anything can still happen'. Here it is straight from the mouth of UN climate negotiator Yvo de Boer:
Mr. de Boer went on to say that what must be done at this point is to, "concentrate on the political imperatives that make it clear how countries are committed [to tackling climate change] and engaging in cutting emissions, and what cooperative mechanisms they need to put in place." Meaning, that industrialized countries need to set out clear individual national targets for 2020, which is what the big developing nations are waiting on to take part in any future international agreement, and all in the context of a long-term 2050 emission reduction target. Also, a deadline that would transfer those individual targets into a legally binding international treaty should also be established.
Grassroots Political Pressure Needed Now, More Than Ever
Before anyone gets worked up, thinking this is a failure, or dashing the chances of success while there's still time to negotiate, I wouldn't go that far. In fact it's gives even more weight to grassroots action: More than ever pressure needs to be put on governments (wherever you happen to live) to enact strong national emissions targets, based in science not political expediency. And if some surprise twist, some unexpected breakthrough happens in the next few weeks, all the better.
By Albert Bates on 18 December 2009 in The Great Change -
(http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-cop15-journal-day-fifteen.html)
Image above: "Leaders Useless" illustration from article on climate talks failure from October 2009. From http://bristol.indymedia.org/article/691300
[IB Publisher's Note: If you have hopes for the COP15 steering us in the right direction, remember the experts on ocean chemistry say that a 2ยบC rise in sea temperature will kill off the tropical reefs, including those in Hawaii in decades.]
Day 15:
This has been such an exhausting day, after such an exhausting two weeks, and it is now midnight so we thought of just going straight to bed and post something in the morning, but so many new readers have picked up this blog that we felt we could not disappoint. We will make a short post now and then elaborate more tomorrow.
There is a climate deal in Copenhagen. It came after a roller coaster ride of ups and downs, crushed expectations and renewed hope, posturing politicians and pleas for sanity. The newspaper headline this morning was “Kan Han?” [Can he do it?] over a picture of Obama. When President O made his opening address, expectations were very high that he would break the logjam and move the treaty to conclusion. Instead, he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Repeating the lame pledges that Hillary Clinton had outlined the day before, he was greeted by boos and jeers in the Klimaforum, the temporary home of many of the exiled NGOs, or at least those who had not been arrested or packed up and left in disgust. Why was he booed? Because the US offer was 3 to 4% reductions in GHG from 1990 levels by 2020, which everyone here knows is only 10% of what is needed to stabilize the climate at a 2 degree increase by mid-century. The EU has pledged a multilateral cut of 35 percent. China 40 percent.
The US and China combine to produce 40% of all greenhouse gases. Tallying all the pledges, we were still 4 gigatons per year short of the 2 degree (350 ppm) target, which meant we could see 3 degrees by mid-century, meaning 5 to 6 degrees in Africa. Evo Morales had called for changing the target to 1 degree. He pledged Bolivia would become carbon neutral like the Maldives is. When Obama arrived and still spoke about the lame US target as though it were something of value, people booed.
If the US were to rise to the EU pledge level, the target could be met and the treaty would have been signed.
The US economy would have had a shot in the arm and a whole new industry would be born. Without that pledge, however, nothing works, the talks are doomed, and the planet we call home may die. People here love Obama. They were deeply disappointed today. On Danish TV, the anchor asked their reporter standing in front of a backdrop of the White House why it was so hard for the US to understand the urgency. The reporter replied (and my Danish is weak so this is a paraphrase):
One in eight children (in the US) goes to bed hungry at night. People die in the thousands without health care. There are two million in prison, more than in China. People are losing their jobs, and their homes. To say that climate change takes on less importance when one is confronted with such challenges is realistic. Even though Denmark now has a right wing government (as we have seen from the police tactics, expulsion of NGOs from the climate talks, and suspension of civil rights this past week) all of those conditions which the reporter described for the United States are almost inconceivable here. How could a country as industrious as the US be so poor in social capital?
A pledge of carbon neutrality, coming from the US, would have changed everything in the climate summit. President Obama would have been the knight in shining armor. US honor would have been restored. Instead, the US delegation framed this as a blame game and China was the bad guy. In actuality, China pledged transparency from the moment Hillary Clinton finished the press conference on Thursday where the Bad China talking point emerged. The press reported, “Clinton said Washington would press the world to come up with a climate aid fund amounting to $100 billion a year by 2020, a move that was quickly followed by an offer from China to open its reporting on actions to reduce carbon emissions to international review.”
When Obama said China was not being transparent and that was a deal-breaker, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with Obama and offered new transparency commitments. Obama said he was satisfied, only to inexplicably reverse that position later in the day. This kabuki played out two or three more times. Eventually it was obvious to most in the Bella Center that it was US and China bickering that was holding up the deal. By the end of the morning, the EU was circulating a draft text dubbed the "Copenhagen Accord." The 120 world leaders still present were given two hours to offer amendments. Here is how that draft text read:
TEMPERATURE GOAL
"Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperatures ought not to exceed 2 degrees, and on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, parties commit to a vigorous response through immediate and enhanced national action based on strengthened international cooperation." BROAD GOALS "Ambitious action to mitigate climate change is needed with developed countries taking the lead. Parties recognize the critical impact of climate change on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effect and stress the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support. “Deep cuts in global emissions are required."
ANNEX ONE (RICH NATIONS) TARGETS
"Annex One parties to the Convention commit to implement, individually or jointly, the quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 as listed, yielding in aggregate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of "X" percent in 2020 compared to 1990 and "Y" percent in 2020 compared to 2005." [The use of “and” here instead of “or” is important. The US is the only country calculating its proposed reductions from 2005 (17%) instead of 1990 (3%). This requires them to calculate both],
NON ANNEX ONE (DEVELOPING NATIONS) GOALS
"Non Annex One parties to the Convention resolve to implement mitigation actions based on their specific national circumstances. Frequency of submissions of non Annex One parties will be every 2 years ... subject to their domestic auditing and assessment ... Clarification may, upon request, be provided by the party concerned at its discretion to respond to any question contained in a national communication ... Supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions shall be subject to international verification".
FUNDS
"Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding shall be provided by developed country parties. “Parties shall provide new and additional resources of $30 billion for 2010-12. “In the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, the parties support the goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion a year to address the climate change needs of developing countries. “This funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance. “A Copenhagen Climate Fund shall be established as an operating entity."
FUTURE
"The parties call for a review of this decision and implementation in 2016. “(Negotiations on a legal text would continue) with a view to adopting one or more legal instruments under the convention as soon as possible and no later than COP 16 (a meeting due in Mexico in November 2009)".
The EU had said earlier the world should aim to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels, with rich nations cutting their emissions by 80 percent. Premier Wen told delegates that China's voluntary targets of reducing its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent would require "tremendous efforts." "We will honor our word with real action," Wen said. In stark contrast, the US was still committing to only a 3% cut, and then pointing fingers. To the NGO community, which is now barred from the COP-15 conference, 50 by '50 looked like a pretty good accord, even if more would be needed later.
Apparently some countries had problems with it, however, because over the late afternoon and evening hours, the text weakened significantly, Some objected to language about 2010 commitments and binding legal framework in COP-16. A clause was dropped that had called on developing countries to reduce emissions by 15-30 percent below "business as usual," that is, judged against the level had no action been taken.
A group of about 25 countries sought and won unanimous agreement on a two-page statement committing to the mobilization of $30 billion in the next three years to help poor countries cope with climate change and a scaling up to $100 billion a year by 2020. Since this satisfied the victim nations, reparations were no longer on the table.
Obama and Wen met twice, said they had taken a step forward in their talks and directed negotiators to keep working, but then fell into sniping at each other. Obama may eventually become known as "the man who killed Copenhagen," said Greenpeace U.S. Executive Director Phil Radford. Brazil's Lula da Silva said a miracle would be needed. "I am not sure if such an angel or wise man will come down to this plenary and put in our minds the intelligence that we lacked," Silva said. "I believe in God.
I believe in miracles." It is half past midnight in Denmark under a blanket of fresh snow and, while everyone was saying “It ain’t over until the black man sings,” President O and Air Force One are out over the Atlantic now. The draft text was abandoned in favor a 5-party deal between the US, China, South Africa, India and Brazil. That, and the adaptation and mitigation funding agreed to by all, was to have been the final outcome of Copenhagen, but hang on, it ain’t over. The EU has called delegates back into session and is determined to come out with something more substantive now that the US and China circus has left town. And tomorrow, we shall see just what that might be.
Out of Time!
SUBHEAD: No New Treaty Likely at COP15 - We've Run Out of Time, Top UN Climate Negotiator Says.
[IB Publisher's Note: It's not as if COP15 failure was not anticipated. Check this article out written in October.]
By Mathew McDermott on 21 October 2009 in Treehugger.org -
(http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/10/no-new-treaty-likely-at-cop15.php)
Image above: "Out of Time" by Sean Patrick Coon in Treehugger.org From http://www.flickr.com/photos/spcoon/3194377944
While it's true, as Brian just pointed out, that the media have been taking us on a bit of a rollercoaster ride regarding the will there-will there not be a new treaty at the end of COP15 speculation, The Financial Times splashes some cold water on the idea that 'anything can still happen'. Here it is straight from the mouth of UN climate negotiator Yvo de Boer:
"A fully fledged new international treaty...I don't think that is going to happen. If you look at the limited amount of time remaining, it is clear."Nations Must Set Out Clear Individual Targets
Mr. de Boer went on to say that what must be done at this point is to, "concentrate on the political imperatives that make it clear how countries are committed [to tackling climate change] and engaging in cutting emissions, and what cooperative mechanisms they need to put in place." Meaning, that industrialized countries need to set out clear individual national targets for 2020, which is what the big developing nations are waiting on to take part in any future international agreement, and all in the context of a long-term 2050 emission reduction target. Also, a deadline that would transfer those individual targets into a legally binding international treaty should also be established.
Grassroots Political Pressure Needed Now, More Than Ever
Before anyone gets worked up, thinking this is a failure, or dashing the chances of success while there's still time to negotiate, I wouldn't go that far. In fact it's gives even more weight to grassroots action: More than ever pressure needs to be put on governments (wherever you happen to live) to enact strong national emissions targets, based in science not political expediency. And if some surprise twist, some unexpected breakthrough happens in the next few weeks, all the better.
Climate Change in Hawaii
SUBHEAD: : Caught Between a Rock and a Big Wave. A near future in which we are warmer, drier and more vulnerable to extreme weather events.
Image above: Big southside swell pounds Kauai near the National Tropical Botanical Gardens.
Photo by Juan Wilson 24 September 2003.
By Jon Letman on 15 December 2009 in Thruthout.org -
(http://www.truthout.org/1215093)
In a perverse way, climate change has inspired people around the world to make competing claims that they are its first victims. From low-lying Pacific islands like Kiribati and Tuvalu, where people face being literally swallowed by rising seas, to Tibetan farmers in Kashmir's remote Ladakh region, where receding Himalayan glaciers threaten agriculture, people in every corner of the world are coming forward as being on the frontline of global climate change.
Crop failure and drought in Africa, loss of biodiversity in the Amazon and extreme flooding and heat waves in Europe all prove that, if nothing else, climate change is successfully uniting the world in a collective state of imperilment.
Now add to the list Hawaii.
As the only US state located in the tropics, and the only one surrounded entirely by water, scientists expect climate change to affect the Hawaiian Islands in ways unlike anywhere else in the country.
Speaking at a global climate change conference last month on the island of Kauai, scientists from the University of Hawaii (UH) and the US Geological Survey sketched a potential profile of a near-future Hawaii that is expected to be warmer, drier and more susceptible to dramatic rain events and severe coastal erosion.
Dr. Thomas Giambelluca, a climatologist and ecohydrologist with the UH Geography Department, said that while the overall global surface temperatures have been warming since at least 1860, Hawaii is in an area of slower warming, about half the global rate. He noted that records since the mid-1970s show that, although Hawaii's daytime temperatures are remaining constant or climbing slowly, nighttime temperatures are rising at a high rate, especially at higher elevations where the warming rate has been about 0.44 degrees Celsius since the mid-70s. Warmer nights have implications for not only greater energy use, but also biological impacts such as slower growth of crops and natural vegetation.
As overall global rainfall has increased during the last century, Hawaii's recorded precipitation has experienced a 5 percent to 20 percent decrease between 1901-2005. According to Giambelluca, this downward trend isn't limited to Hawaii, but can be seen across the same band of latitude (19 degrees N - 28 degrees N) around the world.
Giambelluca pointed to a decrease in precipitation during Hawaii's winter months (November to April) over the last century, with a more dramatic decline (27 percent) since 1970. Research also shows that Hawaii's summer rainfall is increasing slightly, with trends pointing to a drier archipelago with a potentially shrinking cloud zone around Hawaii's high volcanic peaks in the zone where rising moist tropical air creates the rain that makes the islands lush and green.
Giambelluca said Hawaii could start to experience more frequent droughts punctuated by periodic extreme heavy downpours. "It is possible we will have less rainfall, but still have more big rain events," Giambelluca said.
Between February 2006 and April 2006, parts of Hawaii had six weeks of nearly continuous heavy rainfall during which time the Kaloko Dam on Kauai was breached, sending hundreds of millions of gallons of water racing toward the sea, killing seven residents who were swept out of their own homes.
Last month, an extreme rain event on Kauai flooded the Hanalei Valley, home to the bulk of Hawaii's taro crop and a wildlife refuge for rare and endangered Hawaiian birds. Biologists on Kauai have since reported an increase in bird deaths as they move from flooded areas into the flow of automobile traffic.
Today, Hawaii relies on about 50 stream gauges to measure stream flow, down from a high of around 200 in the 1960s, said Dr. Gordon Tribble, director of the Pacific Islands Water Science Center for the US Geological Survey. The reduced capacity to measure stream flow, Tribble said, is reflective of reduced state and federal funding.
Hawaii, which has traditionally been made up of communities arranged around watershed systems, still relies on aquifers and groundwater replenished by trade wind-introduced rainfall for the bulk of its fresh water. Reduced rainfall and the decline of dry-weather flow in Hawaii's streams, Tribble said, has major implications for not only Hawaii's 1.3 million people, but also its flora and fauna, including about one-quarter of all federally listed threatened and endangered species in the US.
The impact climate change may have on Hawaii's unique flora and fauna are of particular interest to botanists and biologists. Chipper Wichman, director of the National Tropical Botanical Garden, speaking from the organization's headquarters on Kauai, said that because 90 percent of Hawaii's native plants (even higher for invertebrates and birds) are found only in Hawaii, often confined to a single mountain or valley, they are especially vulnerable as climate change alters their ecosystems.
Wichman pointed to shifting rainfall patterns and higher temperatures as having direct and indirect consequences for plants and animals. As wet forests become mesic and mesic forests become dry, it is unlikely all native species will be able to evolve or migrate fast enough to keep up with climate change, Wichman said.
Hawaii's native bird population, already decimated by avian malaria and avian pox, could suffer final death blows if even a slight rise in ambient temperature increases the territory of mosquitoes, allowing them to move beyond their current range of up to 3,500 feet. Because native Hawaiian birds serve as pollinators and are essential for seed dispersal, their loss severely affects plants too.
"Biodiversity is the fabric of life," Wichman said. "As we lose what some perceive to be insignificant species, we are actually breaking the threads of this fabric. When enough threads are broken, the very integrity of our ecosystem will unravel."
Communication Breakdown
Speaking at the climate change conference, Dr. Charles Fletcher, chair of the UH Geology and Geophysics Department said, "scientists are not doing a good job of communicating the facts of global warming to policy makers and the public." He was referring to what he called "climate change deniers," particularly in the United States. "You don't see that in other countries," Fletcher said.
Citing the example of the Federated States of Micronesia, Fletcher spoke of how low-lying islands in the Pacific are being threatened right now by increasingly high tides and the accompanying salt water, which destroys the soil and aquifers, making food production and obtaining drinking water difficult, if not impossible.
Global sea level rise averages about 3.3 millimeters per year. In Micronesia, the rise is 8 mm to10 mm per year, the result, in part, of ocean heating and wind patterns. In Hawaii, Fletcher said, sea levels are rising more slowly, around 1.5 mm a year. If and when Hawaii sees accelerated rates of sea level rise as in Micronesia, Hawaii's current problems will seem small by comparison, Fletcher said.
Fletcher noted that the ocean absorbs about 80 percent of the heat in the earth's climate system and, as such, buffers us from the major impacts of global warming. Taking 1/100th of one degree from the ocean and releasing it into the atmosphere would raise the atmospheric temperature by 18 degrees Fahrenheit. Fletcher called the ocean the "800-pound gorilla in the climate system that absorbs excess heat."
Whether a one meter sea level rise occurs by 2100 or whether it happens later (Fletcher said that carbon released into the atmosphere already ensures this will happen), forecasts indicate a number of dramatic changes for Kauai, and consequently all the Hawaiian Islands in relatively similar ways.
The majority of Hawaii's population live in coastal plains where large ocean waves are going to increasingly "punch further into the islands." At just over half a meter sea level rise, Fletcher said flooding will become an annual event. Worsening drainage and high tides means the water will have no place to go. With higher sea levels, it will take less rainfall intensity to cause the same amount of flooding.
"Eventually, you will be wondering if it's fresh water or salt water that is coming into your living room," he said.
Sea level rise, flooding and the greater impact of waves may also effectively transform many coastal communities in Hawaii into a series of barrier islands. "We're going to be saying 'aloha' (farewell) to a lot of our beaches," Fletcher said.
On Kauai, Fletcher said, nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of the sandy coastline is eroding at rate of about one foot (0.3 meters) per year.
Fletcher suggested planning for a possible sea level rise of one meter (3.2 feet) over the next 90 years. It's high time to carefully reconsider what crops will be grown, where and how buildings and infrastructure are built and how people in Hawaii conduct their daily affairs, according to the UH professor.
"Climate-proofing our infrastructure and towns now could buy us a few generations of use for many of our communities," Fletcher said. "We should be building up (from ground level) and back (from the shoreline)."
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow
One of the earliest ecosystems to show evidence of climate change are coral reefs. Like other reef systems around the world, Hawaii's corals are bearing the brunt of rising temperatures, accelerated erosion and greater terrestrial runoff, although to a lesser degree than other regions. UH research scientist with the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology Dr. Paul Jokiel has studied coral ecosystems since the early 1970s. He said that climate change would adversely affect Hawaiian corals and all life that depends on them for survival.
"Dry areas will get drier, wet areas wetter and greater storm activity will bring more sediment onto the reefs," Jokiel said, adding that increased severe storms, rising sea levels and greater ocean acidification can all lead to mass coral bleaching (the result of stress conditions) and mortality. Two significant coral bleachings in Hawaii occurred in 1996 and 2002.
"If we work real hard, we can probably hold temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius. If we go much beyond that, the projections get pretty grim," Jokiel said. "At an increase of 5 degrees Celsius, we're talking about projections of a 90 percent decrease in crop production in Africa."
Still, Jokiel said that even a 2 degrees Celsius increase will result in massive loss of coral reefs. Quoting a colleague, he noted that coral reef biologists may lose their own subject of study, but could at least provide a warning for the rest of the world as to the seriousness of climate change.
"Eventually, if we keep doing what we're doing with the atmosphere and the oceans, we'll reach a place where nothing will calcify and we may see an entire ecosystem go belly-up," Jokiel said.
Pointing to a PowerPoint projection of a mass of sharply downward sloping lines from 50 research models tracking coral reef viability, Jokiel's message is stark: "Everything is crashing."
A warmer, more acidic ocean not only affects coral reefs, but also fish populations, mammals, zooplankton and algae. In Hawaiian waters, for example, scientists are reporting drops in the production of spiny lobster and monk seal pups that seem to be linked to documented increases in ocean temperature and a decrease in oceanic productivity.
Jokiel said the goal right now should be to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius through 2100. Rising 6 degrees Celsius would bring changes which, according to Jokiel, "you don't want to see."
Continuing, he said, "the CO2 we put in the atmosphere stays there unless part of it goes in the ocean. It doesn't go away. The stuff we put in the air remains with us for thousands of years. On a geologic scale it doesn't mean much, but for humans it means a great deal."
As these and other Hawaii-based scientists continue their research and amass more data, the forecasts are growing increasingly consistent, all pointing to an immediate future in which Kauai and the other Hawaiian Islands are warmer, drier and more vulnerable to extreme weather events like torrential rains and drought. Coastal inundation, severe disruptions of ecosystems, the loss of biodiversity from the coral reefs to cloud forests, now the last refuge of countless plants and animals found nowhere else on earth, are all indicative of a paradise literally lost.
Ask anyone in Hawaii today and they'll tell you the place remains drop-dead gorgeous. Travel magazines still gush about Kauai and rank it among the world's best tropical islands. But as climate change accelerates, it ushers in new conditions that force even the most die-hard skeptics to re-examine the evidence, consider the consequences and starting today, plan for a different tomorrow.
See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Climate Change and Kauai 11/22/09
Ea O Ka Aina: 350 Rally in Waimea 10/24/09
Image above: Big southside swell pounds Kauai near the National Tropical Botanical Gardens.
Photo by Juan Wilson 24 September 2003.
By Jon Letman on 15 December 2009 in Thruthout.org -
(http://www.truthout.org/1215093)
In a perverse way, climate change has inspired people around the world to make competing claims that they are its first victims. From low-lying Pacific islands like Kiribati and Tuvalu, where people face being literally swallowed by rising seas, to Tibetan farmers in Kashmir's remote Ladakh region, where receding Himalayan glaciers threaten agriculture, people in every corner of the world are coming forward as being on the frontline of global climate change.
Crop failure and drought in Africa, loss of biodiversity in the Amazon and extreme flooding and heat waves in Europe all prove that, if nothing else, climate change is successfully uniting the world in a collective state of imperilment.
Now add to the list Hawaii.
As the only US state located in the tropics, and the only one surrounded entirely by water, scientists expect climate change to affect the Hawaiian Islands in ways unlike anywhere else in the country.
Speaking at a global climate change conference last month on the island of Kauai, scientists from the University of Hawaii (UH) and the US Geological Survey sketched a potential profile of a near-future Hawaii that is expected to be warmer, drier and more susceptible to dramatic rain events and severe coastal erosion.
Dr. Thomas Giambelluca, a climatologist and ecohydrologist with the UH Geography Department, said that while the overall global surface temperatures have been warming since at least 1860, Hawaii is in an area of slower warming, about half the global rate. He noted that records since the mid-1970s show that, although Hawaii's daytime temperatures are remaining constant or climbing slowly, nighttime temperatures are rising at a high rate, especially at higher elevations where the warming rate has been about 0.44 degrees Celsius since the mid-70s. Warmer nights have implications for not only greater energy use, but also biological impacts such as slower growth of crops and natural vegetation.
As overall global rainfall has increased during the last century, Hawaii's recorded precipitation has experienced a 5 percent to 20 percent decrease between 1901-2005. According to Giambelluca, this downward trend isn't limited to Hawaii, but can be seen across the same band of latitude (19 degrees N - 28 degrees N) around the world.
Giambelluca pointed to a decrease in precipitation during Hawaii's winter months (November to April) over the last century, with a more dramatic decline (27 percent) since 1970. Research also shows that Hawaii's summer rainfall is increasing slightly, with trends pointing to a drier archipelago with a potentially shrinking cloud zone around Hawaii's high volcanic peaks in the zone where rising moist tropical air creates the rain that makes the islands lush and green.
Giambelluca said Hawaii could start to experience more frequent droughts punctuated by periodic extreme heavy downpours. "It is possible we will have less rainfall, but still have more big rain events," Giambelluca said.
Between February 2006 and April 2006, parts of Hawaii had six weeks of nearly continuous heavy rainfall during which time the Kaloko Dam on Kauai was breached, sending hundreds of millions of gallons of water racing toward the sea, killing seven residents who were swept out of their own homes.
Last month, an extreme rain event on Kauai flooded the Hanalei Valley, home to the bulk of Hawaii's taro crop and a wildlife refuge for rare and endangered Hawaiian birds. Biologists on Kauai have since reported an increase in bird deaths as they move from flooded areas into the flow of automobile traffic.
Today, Hawaii relies on about 50 stream gauges to measure stream flow, down from a high of around 200 in the 1960s, said Dr. Gordon Tribble, director of the Pacific Islands Water Science Center for the US Geological Survey. The reduced capacity to measure stream flow, Tribble said, is reflective of reduced state and federal funding.
Hawaii, which has traditionally been made up of communities arranged around watershed systems, still relies on aquifers and groundwater replenished by trade wind-introduced rainfall for the bulk of its fresh water. Reduced rainfall and the decline of dry-weather flow in Hawaii's streams, Tribble said, has major implications for not only Hawaii's 1.3 million people, but also its flora and fauna, including about one-quarter of all federally listed threatened and endangered species in the US.
The impact climate change may have on Hawaii's unique flora and fauna are of particular interest to botanists and biologists. Chipper Wichman, director of the National Tropical Botanical Garden, speaking from the organization's headquarters on Kauai, said that because 90 percent of Hawaii's native plants (even higher for invertebrates and birds) are found only in Hawaii, often confined to a single mountain or valley, they are especially vulnerable as climate change alters their ecosystems.
Wichman pointed to shifting rainfall patterns and higher temperatures as having direct and indirect consequences for plants and animals. As wet forests become mesic and mesic forests become dry, it is unlikely all native species will be able to evolve or migrate fast enough to keep up with climate change, Wichman said.
Hawaii's native bird population, already decimated by avian malaria and avian pox, could suffer final death blows if even a slight rise in ambient temperature increases the territory of mosquitoes, allowing them to move beyond their current range of up to 3,500 feet. Because native Hawaiian birds serve as pollinators and are essential for seed dispersal, their loss severely affects plants too.
"Biodiversity is the fabric of life," Wichman said. "As we lose what some perceive to be insignificant species, we are actually breaking the threads of this fabric. When enough threads are broken, the very integrity of our ecosystem will unravel."
Communication Breakdown
Speaking at the climate change conference, Dr. Charles Fletcher, chair of the UH Geology and Geophysics Department said, "scientists are not doing a good job of communicating the facts of global warming to policy makers and the public." He was referring to what he called "climate change deniers," particularly in the United States. "You don't see that in other countries," Fletcher said.
Citing the example of the Federated States of Micronesia, Fletcher spoke of how low-lying islands in the Pacific are being threatened right now by increasingly high tides and the accompanying salt water, which destroys the soil and aquifers, making food production and obtaining drinking water difficult, if not impossible.
Global sea level rise averages about 3.3 millimeters per year. In Micronesia, the rise is 8 mm to10 mm per year, the result, in part, of ocean heating and wind patterns. In Hawaii, Fletcher said, sea levels are rising more slowly, around 1.5 mm a year. If and when Hawaii sees accelerated rates of sea level rise as in Micronesia, Hawaii's current problems will seem small by comparison, Fletcher said.
Fletcher noted that the ocean absorbs about 80 percent of the heat in the earth's climate system and, as such, buffers us from the major impacts of global warming. Taking 1/100th of one degree from the ocean and releasing it into the atmosphere would raise the atmospheric temperature by 18 degrees Fahrenheit. Fletcher called the ocean the "800-pound gorilla in the climate system that absorbs excess heat."
Whether a one meter sea level rise occurs by 2100 or whether it happens later (Fletcher said that carbon released into the atmosphere already ensures this will happen), forecasts indicate a number of dramatic changes for Kauai, and consequently all the Hawaiian Islands in relatively similar ways.
The majority of Hawaii's population live in coastal plains where large ocean waves are going to increasingly "punch further into the islands." At just over half a meter sea level rise, Fletcher said flooding will become an annual event. Worsening drainage and high tides means the water will have no place to go. With higher sea levels, it will take less rainfall intensity to cause the same amount of flooding.
"Eventually, you will be wondering if it's fresh water or salt water that is coming into your living room," he said.
Sea level rise, flooding and the greater impact of waves may also effectively transform many coastal communities in Hawaii into a series of barrier islands. "We're going to be saying 'aloha' (farewell) to a lot of our beaches," Fletcher said.
On Kauai, Fletcher said, nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of the sandy coastline is eroding at rate of about one foot (0.3 meters) per year.
Fletcher suggested planning for a possible sea level rise of one meter (3.2 feet) over the next 90 years. It's high time to carefully reconsider what crops will be grown, where and how buildings and infrastructure are built and how people in Hawaii conduct their daily affairs, according to the UH professor.
"Climate-proofing our infrastructure and towns now could buy us a few generations of use for many of our communities," Fletcher said. "We should be building up (from ground level) and back (from the shoreline)."
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow
One of the earliest ecosystems to show evidence of climate change are coral reefs. Like other reef systems around the world, Hawaii's corals are bearing the brunt of rising temperatures, accelerated erosion and greater terrestrial runoff, although to a lesser degree than other regions. UH research scientist with the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology Dr. Paul Jokiel has studied coral ecosystems since the early 1970s. He said that climate change would adversely affect Hawaiian corals and all life that depends on them for survival.
"Dry areas will get drier, wet areas wetter and greater storm activity will bring more sediment onto the reefs," Jokiel said, adding that increased severe storms, rising sea levels and greater ocean acidification can all lead to mass coral bleaching (the result of stress conditions) and mortality. Two significant coral bleachings in Hawaii occurred in 1996 and 2002.
"If we work real hard, we can probably hold temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius. If we go much beyond that, the projections get pretty grim," Jokiel said. "At an increase of 5 degrees Celsius, we're talking about projections of a 90 percent decrease in crop production in Africa."
Still, Jokiel said that even a 2 degrees Celsius increase will result in massive loss of coral reefs. Quoting a colleague, he noted that coral reef biologists may lose their own subject of study, but could at least provide a warning for the rest of the world as to the seriousness of climate change.
"Eventually, if we keep doing what we're doing with the atmosphere and the oceans, we'll reach a place where nothing will calcify and we may see an entire ecosystem go belly-up," Jokiel said.
Pointing to a PowerPoint projection of a mass of sharply downward sloping lines from 50 research models tracking coral reef viability, Jokiel's message is stark: "Everything is crashing."
A warmer, more acidic ocean not only affects coral reefs, but also fish populations, mammals, zooplankton and algae. In Hawaiian waters, for example, scientists are reporting drops in the production of spiny lobster and monk seal pups that seem to be linked to documented increases in ocean temperature and a decrease in oceanic productivity.
Jokiel said the goal right now should be to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius through 2100. Rising 6 degrees Celsius would bring changes which, according to Jokiel, "you don't want to see."
Continuing, he said, "the CO2 we put in the atmosphere stays there unless part of it goes in the ocean. It doesn't go away. The stuff we put in the air remains with us for thousands of years. On a geologic scale it doesn't mean much, but for humans it means a great deal."
As these and other Hawaii-based scientists continue their research and amass more data, the forecasts are growing increasingly consistent, all pointing to an immediate future in which Kauai and the other Hawaiian Islands are warmer, drier and more vulnerable to extreme weather events like torrential rains and drought. Coastal inundation, severe disruptions of ecosystems, the loss of biodiversity from the coral reefs to cloud forests, now the last refuge of countless plants and animals found nowhere else on earth, are all indicative of a paradise literally lost.
Ask anyone in Hawaii today and they'll tell you the place remains drop-dead gorgeous. Travel magazines still gush about Kauai and rank it among the world's best tropical islands. But as climate change accelerates, it ushers in new conditions that force even the most die-hard skeptics to re-examine the evidence, consider the consequences and starting today, plan for a different tomorrow.
See also:
Ea O Ka Aina: Climate Change and Kauai 11/22/09
Ea O Ka Aina: 350 Rally in Waimea 10/24/09
Six reasons why Earth can't cope
SUBHEAD: The world faces a dangerous convergence of environmental and resource crises.
Image above: Painting "Gaia Alterpiece" by Elsie Russell, 1992.
From (http://www.parnasse.com/erlist.htm)
By John Gibbons on 17 December 2009 in Irish Times -
(http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1217/1224260833095.html)
Image above: Painting "Gaia Alterpiece" by Elsie Russell, 1992.
From (http://www.parnasse.com/erlist.htm)
By John Gibbons on 17 December 2009 in Irish Times -
(http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1217/1224260833095.html)
As world leaders arrive in Copenhagen for the crunch phase of the climate conference, the focus turns to what kind of deal is likely to emerge. Pre-eminent climate scientist Prof James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute has already given the entire process the kiss of death. Any political deal cobbled together is, he believes, likely to be so profoundly flawed as to lock humanity on to “a disaster track”.
Hansen voiced publicly what environmental scientists and campaigners have murmured all year. A political fudge that ducks science is the likeliest outcome at Copenhagen. Earlier this week, for instance, EU fisheries ministers agreed a deal that pleased our Government and our fishermen. However, it does little to arrest the progressive annihilation of a common resource that, like our atmosphere, is owned by no one – and so exploited by all.
The world faces a dangerous convergence of environmental and resource crises, not all directly climate related. All, however, are increasingly difficult to resolve in a rapidly warming world. Taken together, they are not amenable to a business-as-usual political response. Here, in no particular order, are six:
1. Biodiversity: “The world is currently undergoing a very rapid loss of biodiversity comparable with the great mass extinction events that have previously occurred only five or six times in the Earth’s history,” says the World Wildlife Fund. It has tracked an astonishing 30 per cent decline in the Earth’s biodiversity between 1970-2003. Hunting, habitat destruction, deforestation, pollution and the spread of agriculture are leading to as many as 1,000 entire species going extinct every week – that’s a species every 10 minutes. The economic cost of destroying biodiversity is also immense. A 2008 EU study estimated the cost of forest loss alone is running at $2-$5 trillion annually.
2. Ocean Acidification: The evidence of the effects of increased CO2 levels on the world’s oceans is unequivocal. Surface ocean acidity has increased by 30 per cent since 1800, with half this increase occurring in just the last three decades. The rate of change in oceanic pH levels is around 100 times faster than any observed natural rate. Increasing acidity is impeding the ability of plankton called foraminifera to produce shells. These creatures form the base of the entire marine food system. The world’s vital reef systems are also in peril from acidification.
3. Population Pressure: Broadcaster Sir David Attenborough has witnessed how the natural world is being crushed by humanity. “I’ve never seen a problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder – and ultimately impossible – with more,” he says. The Earth must provide for around 80 million more people than this time last year. It took us almost 10,000 years to reach a billion people. We now add that many every 12 years.
4. Peak Oil: This month, the International Energy Agency formally predicted global peak oil by 2020. Today, the world burns the equivalent of 82 million barrels of oil every day. Projected growth in energy demand will see this rise to almost 100 million barrels within a decade, but by then, output from the oilfields currently in production will have plummeted to barely a third of that. A massive energy gap is looming, and with discoveries having peaked in the mid-1960s, we are approaching the bottom of the cheap oil barrel. Non-conventional oil, renewables and nuclear will be nowhere near capable of bridging this energy gap in time. The oil shocks of the coming decade will be intense.
5. Peak Food: The global food system is predicated on lashings of cheap oil, fresh water, soil and natural gas. All four are in decline. The food riots of 2008 were an early warning of a global system in crisis. In the US, it is estimated every calorie of food energy requires 10 calories of fossil fuel energy. More food production is now being channelled into fattening animals. Meat is a tasty but entirely inefficient way to use finite food resources. Meanwhile, the UN predicts the collapse of all global commercial marine fisheries by 2048, depriving up to two billion people of food.
6. Peak Water: During the 20th century, human water usage increased nine-fold, with irrigation (for agriculture) alone using two-thirds of this total. With almost all major glaciers retreating, many river systems are at risk. Groundwater in aquifers is another key fresh water source. Over-extraction, mostly for agriculture, has caused their levels worldwide to plummet. Pollution, especially from fertiliser overuse, adds to the loss of fresh water. The Environmental Protection Agency yesterday reported only 17 per cent of Ireland’s rivers are of “high ecological status”.
The 19th century naturalist John Muir famously wrote that “when one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world”. As the Copenhagen conference draws to a close, the words of a contemporary of Muir, politician and orator Robert Ingersoll, have never seemed more apt:
“In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments; there are only consequences.”
Open Letter to Teenagers
SUBHEAD: Start telling the truth – the hard, unpleasant, revolting, exhilarating, depressing, liberating truth.
Image above: Teenagers at a Waimea Days event near abandoned sugar mill.
Photo by Juan Wilson on 2/26/05.
By Dan Allen on 16 December 2009 in Energy Bulletin -
(http://www.energybulletin.net/50991)
Image above: Teenagers at a Waimea Days event near abandoned sugar mill.
Photo by Juan Wilson on 2/26/05.
By Dan Allen on 16 December 2009 in Energy Bulletin -
(http://www.energybulletin.net/50991)
[Note from the author: As a peak-oil/climate-aware high school Chemistry teacher, every day is a balance between (1) imparting the daily Chemistry lesson in an effective and entertaining manner, (2) telling the kids the hard, scary truth about our civilization’s predicament without crushing their hopes and dreams for a livable future, and (3) offering some ideas about what we could do to help the situation]
Overall, my part-gloomy/part-hopeful message has mixed success with the kids. Some of them couldn’t care less. Some of them don’t want to hear it at all. But some of them respond with a sincere concern. And this sincere concern sometimes even blossoms into constructive thought and concrete action to address our predicament. So I think I’m having at least some net positive effect. Maybe.
Some people have expressed concerns that I “limit them” by telling them such “bad news.” But I don’t think so. I don’t see the point in lying to them about our possible futures. We’ve lied to them, to ourselves, for too long now. And with the apex of our civilization now receding behind us, I think it’s maybe time for everybody to just start telling the truth – the hard, unpleasant, revolting, exhilarating, depressing, liberating truth.
…And then we need to get down to work. …But first the truth.
So I sat down and wrote this. It’s my attempt at telling them the truth. I know it’s a little pretentious to write a letter to “all teenagers,” but how long are we gonna keep lying to them? Enough already.
Hi There, Kids!
Hello, teenagers of America! How are you?! …Hello? Anybody home? …Hey -- Are you ignoring me? …Is that a ‘yes?’ OK. I get it. …You want to be alone? …Right?
Then I’ll leave this letter right here outside your door. You can get it later. You will, right? You’ll read it? OK…I’ll take that as a ‘yes.’
Look, I know it’s just what you wanted – a letter from a middle-aged man telling you all about how your entire world is about to be turned completely upside down. A letter about how your hyper-individualism is a thing of the past; how you’ll never ever again be called a consumer; how you’re about to live a lot closer to the Earth; how you’re about to live closer to your neighbors; how you’re about to live a lot closer to the edge.
Right up your alley, huh? …OK, right. …I’ll…I’ll leave the letter right here. …See ya later. …Bye.
Some Things You’ve Probably Noticed
Now, you guys get a bad rap about being clueless, but I know you’ve noticed a lot of what’s going on.
For one thing, the economy is in the crapper. (Is that a word you guys use?) Maybe you’re having trouble getting a good summer job. Maybe you’re parents are worried about paying for college. Maybe you’re wondering when things are gonna turn around. Yea, a lot of people are worried.
And this war thing – you probably noticed that, huh? A little bit confused by it? Yea, me too. I bet it just sort of seems normal to you, huh? Well it’s not. At least it shouldn’t be. But it’s not your fault. …But you’ll pay for it. We all will.
And you feel a little alienated? Like you’re surrounded by people but you still sort of feel alone? Yea, that’s normal…unfortunately. It shouldn’t be normal, but it is. And it’s getting worse. It didn’t used to be normal. …At least not like it is now.
And this whole climate thing. …Confusing, huh? It’s like everything else – all the adults just sit around and insult each other, and never get anything decided. It’s hard to know who to believe. It sort of makes you want to just tune it out. But you shouldn’t, you know. And pretty soon you won’t even be able to. I’ll talk more about it in a minute.
Some Things You May Not Know Yet
OK, so let’s get down to business here. I’m gonna level with you about some things.
There’s a bunch of stuff -- really important stuff -- that the adults aren’t telling you. But don’t feel insulted, because they’re not even honest with each other about it. A lot of them don’t even know. I’m gonna tell you briefly about it here, but don’t take my word for it – look it up. I mean really look it up. Read books about it. It’s important.
So let’s talk about the oil situation. First of all, we use oil for so many things. Your life would be so completely different without oil. It’s magical stuff. Horrible, magical stuff. And I know you’ve heard about some problems with gasoline and oil – like all the complaints when prices get too high. But the situation’s way worse than that. You’ll hear lots of people say “we’ll never run out of oil” – but that’s only partly right. We haven’t yet pulled all the oil out of the Earth, but pretty soon we’re going to run out of all the oil we can afford to pull out. The oil that’s left is too hard to get at, and it’s in countries that are going to want to keep it for themselves. Pretty soon, we’ll hardly have any oil for us. That’s huge.
But what about the other sources of “fossil” energy – coal, natural gas, nuclear? Yea, more bad news – bad in the energy sense, at least. All these other fossil energy sources that can run out are going to run out. – Not as quickly as oil, maybe, but almost. They’ll run out quickly enough where it’s not worth changing over to them. They’re dead ends. And I’m not even talking here about climate yet – they’re dead ends from an energy perspective. From a climate perspective, they’re pure death.
So you’re saying, ‘What about alternative energy?’ – solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, biofuels, etc. ‘Won’t they save us?’ …No. They won’t. Now don’t get me wrong – this stuff is great, and I think we should push forward with it as much as possible. But you shouldn’t expect them to replace much of the depleting fossil energy sources, because they won’t. The alternatives won’t give us anywhere near the energy required to live our lives like we live now. Not even close. Now again, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use them – it just means that, even if we do use them, we’re guaranteed to have less energy in the future. And because of that, our lives will be totally different. So completely totally different. Guaranteed.
I’m not sure what to say about the climate. I don’t want to scare you. But I don’t want to lie to you either. So I won’t. I won’t lie to you, I mean. How about this: it’s very bad. I mean, what’s already coming is gonna be very bad. Almost guaranteed. And unavoidable now. Storms and droughts and cities underwater and farms underwater and hungry people. Lots and lots of hungry people. And it won’t be that far in the future. You’ll live it. And there’s a very real chance it could be just utterly horrific. Like totally-different-Earth horrific. Like extinction-of-our-species horrific. I’m not exaggerating. It scares the heck out of me. But I think you should know the truth.
But this climate stuff is a lot like the energy stuff in this way: (1) Both of them are already gonna be real bad. We already screwed up on both. A painful, civilization-killing energy crash is already coming. Climate disasters are already coming. (2) But we might -- might -- have a chance to stop it at ‘real bad’ in both cases and avoid ‘horrific’. But only -- only -- if we start doing the ‘right thing’ now. Right now. We need to start preparing for a low-energy future. Right now. And we need to stop burning fossil fuels. Right now. And that means turning your entire life upside down. Right now. And that’s scary.
But the choice now couldn’t be more clear. And it’s a damn crime nobody’s telling you this -- because you’re probably the only ones who could pull off the change that’s required. That’s partly why I’m telling you this. We old people are too set in our ways. We’ve got too much sunk into the system. We have too much crap we think we need to protect. It’s pathetic.
But you guys have nothing to lose. -- And you guys have everything to lose.
So do you have it in you? Or are you too far gone too? I honestly don’t know.
An Apology (but not for what you think)
OK, that wasn’t too fun, was it? But maybe take some comfort in this: nobody’s lying to you this time. Nobody’s trying to trick you. Nobody’s trying to sell you something. I’m just trying to tell you the truth. It probably feels a little weird.
I know there’s a lot for you to be mad at. And I understand if you are. My generation and the handful of generations before me really screwed things up. …And I know that’s the biggest understatement ever.
Maybe you’re mad that we burned through the fossil fuels without ever figuring out what we’d do when they were gone; that we never set up energy systems that would outlive us when we had the chance; that we destroyed all the easy irreplaceable resources of everything else – metals, fertilizer, old-growth forest, fertile top soil, etc.; that we’ve been so horribly wasteful.
Maybe you’re mad that we destroyed the rivers and estuaries; that we cut down the rainforests; that we exterminated so many species of everything; that we piled garbage all over the place and spilled poisons into the soil and the water and the air; that there’s hardly any fish left in the oceans.
Maybe you’re mad that we messed up the climate; that it’ll be hard to know what weather to expect when you’re older; that storms and droughts are gonna be so deadly awful; that’s it’s gonna be so hard to grow enough food; that we probably won’t be able to grow enough food.
Well you should be mad. I don’t think we could have treated the Earth and ourselves and future generations much worse. We’ve done horrible things.
So I’d like to apologize -- but not for what you think. I’m not gonna apologize for wrecking the Earth.
Frankly, I don’t think you would’ve behaved much different than us. In fact I know it. I see every day how you buy into the same destructive system that’s caused all these problems. It’s tricky; it’s seductive – it sucks you in. You buy into it more and more until one day you wake up and realize there’s no way out – you’re a flat out ‘consumer’ and you need the system. No matter how much it’s killing the Earth, you need it. It becomes part of you.
So I feel horrible about what’s happened, but I’m not gonna apologize for getting sucked into the system – we all did. But the system is dying now, so we’ll be free from it anyway.
I’d like to apologize for a myth that we’ve been passing on to you; a myth that we’ve been passing on for generations. It’s a myth that’s destroying the biosphere; a myth that’s destroying us.
Here’s the myth: that we belong on this Earth more than salmon, spiders, tuna, oaks, or sparrows; more than whales, beetles, redwoods, or bees; that we can destroy other species and not destroy ourselves; that we don’t need them; that we don’t have to love them; that we don’t have to love the Earth.
This horrible myth is the thing to be mad at; to be furious at. You should hate this myth. You should scream at it and curse at it. You should write it down on a piece of paper and then burn it. And then you should let it go. Forever.
This myth is an abomination, and it needs to stop with you guys. Right now. I apologize for our stupidity in holding onto such nonsense; for passing it on. You can do better that that. You need to.
You Are ‘Generation Limits’ (Is that a good name?)
Now forgive me if I digress for a moment. This next part is gonna sound a little silly.
But I’ve always wanted to coin a catch-phrase – some clever turn-of-words that sticks in the collective mind of our pop-culture. Look, I know it’s petty and shallow, but hey…I’m human. And we’re petty and shallow sometimes.
…So do you mind if I give your generation a name? A catchy name that maybe they’ll put on the cover of Newsweek or something? …OK, I know you mind. But I’m gonna do it anyway.
OK, how about this: ’Generation Limits’? Is that catchy? ...Not really?
Now…I’m sorry. That’s a dirty trick, huh? – Us wrecking the world and then naming your generation after what it can’t do. I understand if you don’t like the name. You don’t have to use it.
But there is a lot of truth to it, huh? My generation and the handful of generations before me all acted like we had no limits on anything. It was like a religion with us. We could do whatever we wanted; use as much as we pleased; waste as much as we felt like; destroy whatever was in our way. We felt super-human. Like gods.
We were delusional. Dangerous.
...We were monsters, really. …Think about it. We really were.
But you guys have limits. I mean, we had limits too – we just ignored them. But you can’t. I mean you physically can’t. The Earth won’t let you. We just about ran it dry.
So even though it’s silly to name generations, I think you should hold onto this ‘limits’ idea. Make it the cornerstone of whatever civilization comes next. Celebrate it. Be proud of it. You should probably even put it into your religions. It’s that important.
Seriously.
How to See the Future
Now, I’ve already done a lot of ‘predicting the future’ here so far. And I admit that’s a dicey thing to try. …But I’d say it’s a heck of a lot better than ignoring the future.
That’s what we’ve been doing, by the way -- ignoring the future. We pretend to be interested in it, but we’re really not. Pretending that “the future will be a continuation of the past – only better” is a way of ignoring the future. It’s the mantra of the reckless, homicidal civilization we’ve become. And I bet we’ll be chantin’ that mantra as we slam into the wall at full speed.
You should probably try something else.
But how does someone look into the future?
Well -- first, you need to have some idea about what’s happened in the past. You can get that from good books.
And then you need to open your eyes and be honest about what you see right now. You can get that from good books too – from people who learned to do it; or who never forgot. Or you might even know some of these people. Talk to them.
And finally, you need to know that the future probably won’t be a straight-line continuation from the recent past. It almost never is. Again -- good books.
That’s a lot of book reading, huh? …But people used to be able to see the future. Even before books. They got it from listening to stories their grandparents told. Again and again. Stories about what worked and what didn’t work. Stories about the mystery of it all. The same stories. Over and over. Until they could see the future.
-- Now, it didn’t always work out. They messed up sometimes. …But it was a lot better than what we’re doing now – ignoring the future.
So you should probably start thinking about the stories you’ll need to tell. Stories about what worked and what didn’t work. Stories about the mystery of it all. Start practicing them now. Remember them. And then tell them to your grandchildren. Again and again. Until they can see the future.
All Our Possible Futures
So now I’m gonna try to do some more predicting-the-future for you guys. I know you’re thrilled. But I mean well. Really -- I’m trying to help. I’m not just trying to be annoying or preachy. I’m trying to help.
Now, nobody can really see into the future – not in any detailed way. There’s too many variables. But you can make a good guess. You can usually sort of see how things might play out. And sometimes you can be right. Again – it’s better than ignoring it. You’ll always be wrong if you ignore it.
So one good way to think of the future is what they call a ‘probability distribution’ – like rolling a loaded pair of dice. It’s a bunch of possible futures ranging from really good to really bad. Based on our past and present choices, some of these futures are more probable than others. And every new decision we make resets the probabilities of these possible futures. By making good decisions, we can make the good futures more probable and the bad ones less probable. But only up to a point. At some point things get a lot harder to change.
That’s probably the best way to think about the future.
But it turns out that we’re in a bit of a tough spot here. Our past decisions haven’t exactly been the best. (Yea, we’ve burned a lot of bridges.) And the decisions we’re making right now aren’t much better. (Yup – still burnin’ those bridges.) So at this point, the most probable futures are definitely not the brightest ones – not even close. But they’re the ones we’ve been choosing. (It’s like we can’t help it – huh?) And they’re probably the ones we’re gonna get. And you get what you get.
So I’m gonna try to guess what we’ll get – what sorts of lives might be waiting for you as our civilization starts its descent. It’ll be different than what we have now – that’s for sure. But it doesn’t have to be a nightmare. It might even be exhilarating. Maybe not. But parts of it maybe.
It’ll definitely be a lot of work. Definitely a lot of work. But we can do that.
The Part Where I Look Into My Crystal Ball
…So here it is.
In the future…
Some of you will grow food. -- Probably a lot of you, actually. Even those of you who do other things as your main job. So you should probably start to learn how it’s done. Right now. Because it’s not something you can learn in a year – how to add fertility and prepare the soil, when to plant and harvest, how to store the harvest and save seeds, etc. There’s more to it than you think. And it’s gonna get even trickier when the climate starts its carbonic seizures – droughts, floods, heat, cold, and storms. In no particular pattern. So you better be good.
Some of you will re-design and re-build our lives. -- You’ll design renewable-energy systems, rainwater-collection systems, natural building methods, food-production systems, food-storage systems, manufacturing systems, etc. etc. And you’ll need to do it largely without fossil fuels. And mostly with materials you get from Nature. So you’ll probably need a lot of cleverness. But I’ve noticed that a lot of you are pretty clever. So I think you can do it.
Some of you will become skilled craftspeople. -- You’ll make all the things we used to have the robots make for us. But they used mostly oil. And now they won’t have any. They’ll be useless. So you’ll need to use wood and reeds and stone and anything else you can find. Maybe even pieces of the robots. You’ll need to be creative. And you’ll need to be good. But I bet you can do it. I know you can.
All of you will live closer to the Earth. -- You won’t have a choice. You’ll find that you need the Earth again -- that you really always needed it. You’ll drink the rain. And smell the leaves. And follow the stars. And talk to the moon. And sing along with the birds. You’ll sit quietly in the glorious pregnant stillness of dawn. And you’ll know the Earth. Again. As your ancestors did. –Aren’t you thrilled? …No? …But just wait. You’ll see. It’s in your bones. Still. …Really. It’s ancient. And it’s still there. Inside you.
All of you will live closer to your neighbors. -- Again, you won’t have a choice. You’ll need them. Too much can go wrong for you to make it by yourself. They’ll be your safety net. – And sure, you won’t like all of them. But you’ll have to learn to deal with that. To get past that. To live with differences and make it work. You won’t have a choice.
All of you will live closer to the edge. -- You’ll have less room for error. There’ll be no ancient sunlight – no fossil energy -- to bail you out if you mess up. Like if you run out of food or water; if you run out of firewood; if your house gets messed up. So you better be careful. And you better plan ahead. And you better be good. And you better have people you can depend on. Because the edge is gonna get real close sometimes. Guaranteed.
All of you will live with limits. -- Lots of limits. Limits all over the place. Limits from both your communities and the Earth itself. Limits to how much you can take from the Earth. Limits to how much you can keep for yourself. Limits to how far and fast you can travel. Limits to where you can live. Limits to how much you can eat. Limits to what you’ll be able to eat. Limits to everything. – You’ll be swimming in limits. And they won’t be optional. And there’ll be a price for breaking them – a big price. Maybe your lives. And the lives of your children. So you better pay attention to the limits. You better find out what they are. And you better obey them. Because they mean business this time. For real.
All of you will need to be strong. – Because this ain’t gonna be a walk in the park, kids. There’s gonna be pain and suffering. There’s gonna be some bad things that happen. So you need to be strong. And you can’t give up. Even when it’s really hard. Even when you want to give up. You can lean on other people sometimes. But you need to be strong for them too.
And all of you will be important. – Every single one of you. You won’t be consumers. You won’t be statistics. And you won’t be replaceable. You’ll be members of your communities. You’ll be people that other people depend on. You’ll have important skills. And important knowledge. And you’ll do important work. And you’ll have family around you. And people who care about you. And people who need you. And people who won’t let you fall. And you’ll all be important.
Every single one of you will be so damn important.
Good Luck
So, sorry I went on for so long here. I had a lot on my mind.
But thanks for reading. And again, sorry for sounding preachy. I really do mean well.
Good luck with everything. We have a lot of work to do.
And remember to start practicing your stories. You’ll need them. Your children’s children will need them.
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